In every new Administration, there are some fresh faces and some holdovers. Among the holdovers on the economic team is Ms. Rosy Scenario. The president's budget assumes that while this will be a rough year, particularly in the first half, things will start to get better in the second half, and will be much stronger in 2010.

The graph below shows the year-over-year growth rates expected for each year out to 2014. I think they are all too high, but for 2010, the administration's forecast is the highest and, therefore, the most off base. Yes, the stimulus will help, but the underlying situation is much more dire than the forecasters admit. We are caught up in a vicious cycle, where declining wealth has lead to lower consumption, which has lead to decreases in production, which has lead to more unemployment, causing more stress on the financial system, causing more

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