Niall Ferguson, Professor of History at Harvard University and author of the brilliant “The Ascent of Money“, is interviewed by Martin Wolf, the FT’s chief economics commentator, at the FT View from the Top conference on the future of capitalism.

Click here or on the image below to view the video clip.

Source: Niall Ferguson, Financial Times, October 29, 2009.

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“The US is an empire in decline, according to Niall Ferguson, Harvard professor and author of The Ascent of Money,” reported Aaron Task of Yahoo Finance - Tech Ticker.

“People have predicted the end of America in the past and been wrong,” Ferguson concedes. “But let’s face it: If you’re trying to borrow $9 trillion to save your financial system …and already half your public debt held by foreigners, it’s not really the conduct of rising empires, is it? Excessive debt is usually a predictor of subsequent trouble.”

The report highlights Ferguson as saying America today is comparable to Britain circa 1900: a dominant empire underestimating the rise of a new power. In Britain’s case back then it was Germany; in America’s case today, it’s China.

“When China’s economy is equal in size to that of the U.S., which could come as early as 2027

The Economist’s Buttonwood Gathering, a conference bringing together global regulators and bankers to discuss and debate new ideas and develop a new set of guidelines moving forward, has just taken place in New York. Michael Panzer, writer of the Financial Armageddon blog and author of “Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse”, was in attendance and has kindly shared some of the more interesting quotes on his blog, as reported below.

Secretary Tim Geithner, United States Department of the Treasury:

“Generally, we did not do enough.” (Referring to the failure to address growing concerns over excessive risk-taking in the period leading up to the financial crisis.) [Editor's note: understatement of the year?]

Stephen Roach, Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia:

Those who are looking for a “V”-shaped recovery are in for “a rude awakening.”

“The imbalances going into the crisis were large to begin with.

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Robert Fisk (Independent): Secret plan to ditch the US dollar’s dominance uncovered, October 6, 2009. Arab states have launched a secret plan with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading.

• Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Telegraph): China calls time on dollar hegemony, October 6, 2009. You can date the end of dollar hegemony from China’s decision last month to sell its first batch of sovereign bonds in Chinese yuan to foreigners.

• John Hussman (Hussman Funds): Defensive, but a measure of equanimity, October 5, 2009. My view continues to be that the intrinsic condition of the US economy has not improved, and that the green shoots we’ve observed are a transient artifact

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Doug Kass (TheStreet.com): Bearish arguments are roaring, September 14, 2009. In summary, the market has discounted favorable expectations (certainly against forecasts four months ago!) and seems more “certain” of a self-sustaining recovery cycle outcome. Reflecting the gravity and weight of so many inhibiting factors, I see a much broader range of possible outcomes and less certainty than some of the newly printed bullish market participants. The credit expansion of the last several decades has reversed, it will take time to reverse the damage to net worth and confidence, the consumer remains in a fragile state, corporations will make do with more productive but fewer personnel (job growth could continue to disappoint), there are no apparent drivers to replace the role of

This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find interesting.

• John Hussman (Hussman Funds): Conditional expectations and September seasonality, September 14, 2009. One of the arguments we’ve seen a lot lately is the idea that September and October have historically been the worst months for the stock market, coupled with rebuttals by bullish analysts along the lines that the discussion of this historical tendency by the bears makes it likely that nothing bad will happen this time. The fact is that yes, on average, the combined September-October period has historically produced slight declines for the S&P 500 whether you look back since 1870, 1900, 1940 or 1970. But the variance around that slightly negative return is large enough that it’s really misguided, in my view, to base predictions on it.

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy. Please also add the links to any other thought-provoking articles you would like to share to the comments section.

• Paul Krugman (The New York Times): Averting the worst, August 9, 2009. So it seems that we aren’t going to have a second Great Depression after all. What saved us? The answer, basically, is Big Government.

• Niall Ferguson (Financial Times): A runaway deficit may soon test Obama’s luck, August 10, 2009. Six months in, “Felix the Prez” still has the look of a lucky, two-term president. But that could change if voters become even more disenchanted with the legislative branch and start blaming the president for the looming fiscal train-wreck.

• Simon Johnson (The Baseline Scenario):

Niall Ferguson’s book, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World, is now available in a full-length four-part documentary. Known for his intellectual firepower, Ferguson is an historian who specializes in financial and economic history and teaches at Harvard.

The Ascent of Money is well researched and especially relevant for putting the current financial crisis in historical context. As Ferguson said, “Money’s rise has never been a smooth upward ride … Financial history has repeatedly been interrupted by gut-wrenching crises, of which today’s is just the latest.”

Each of the parts lasts for about an hour, but is conveniently broken up into chapters should one only wish to view certain sections.

Part 1: From bullion to bubbles Ferguson examines the current global financial crisis in the context of the financial history of the West. Topics in this part include: the beginnings of money

Art Laffer on inefficient market theory [video] Zero Hedge

Niall Ferguson’s “The Ascent of Money” [video] The Business Insider

The science of economic bubbles and busts Scientific American

Exit ahead? Not so fast Barron’s

Roger Altman: We need to raise taxes WSJ

Last calls for monetization FX Solutions

Inflationary pressures are a legitimate concern Technical Take

Bernanke a total failure Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

Gov’t bails out General Electric Jesse’s Café

Krugman: healthcare not a bowl of cherries NYT

There are three ways to get out of a debt crisis. First, you can work off the debt, but this takes a long time. An impatient public and an impatient government will not have the stomach the wait that would be necessary for individuals, families, and businesses to get their balance sheets in order so that a recovery can get started.

The second method is to inflate or reflate yourself out of the nominal debt burden you have created. The Federal Reserve is doing its best to create an inflationary environment so that the real value of the debt will be reduced and individuals, families, and businesses will feel comfortable enough to begin borrowing and spending once again.

The third way to reduce the burden of your debt is to repudiate the debt. That is, declare that you will not pay the debt and that those