On Thursday, July 3, the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25%. That same day, economists expect the U.S. jobs number (”nonfarm payrolls”) to show a 60,000 reduction. Question: How should the two events affect the U.S. dollar’s standing against other currencies? Well, in theory, when a central bank raises interest rates, it makes that country’s assets more attractive to foreign investors. And since the country’s assets are denominated in that country’s currency, it also becomes “more attractive” – i.e. it gains. A weak jobs report speaks for itself. So, come Thursday, the USD should get decimated. Will it? Possibly, but… If you’ve traded forex for a while, you’ve seen many instances when the market would react “illogically” to the news. What’s stopping Thursday from being one of those days? Forex markets often don’t behave as “fundamentals” suggest they should. That’s because what determines the trend ...