The stock market is nothing if not a place of pure deception.  Just when you think you have the market figured out it changes course leaving you scratching your head in frustration.  Or even worse, just when the market seems to be making logical sense it makes no sense whatsoever, which seems to be the case most of the time anyway.

 

 

 

LOGICAL DECEPTION

Think about the following: all you hear in the news media is how the consumer is not spending any money; how the Christmas season will be dismal; how continued unemployment  will  stifle any improvement in consumer sentiment, etc. etc. yet have you taken a look at the retail sector in the last few months? The RTH (Retail Holders Trust) broke out yesterday to a high it has not seen since the

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In these days of Debbie Downers and Negative Neds it’s hard to keep a positive outlook, especially in the financial arena. It seems like we should all throw in the towel and slide from what is possibly the end of a recession to the depths of a depression.

Don’t let that become a self fulfilling prophecy. Most people get what they’re expecting. If you expect the worst the odds are you’ll get it.  And what’s worse is if you only expect bad news you’ll interpret any news as negative.

The news media doesn’t report good news. Even if there is an uptrend it’s given a negative spin. For example: the housing market may be slightly better for this quarter than it was in the previous quarter. That would be good news right?

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The trouble with being a contrarian is that you can never be quite contrarian enough.

We began having doubts about the ‘feds inflate… gold soars’ hypothesis last year. It was too easy… too obvious. And if it were that easy to inflate a nation’s currency, how come the Japanese couldn’t get the hang of it in the ‘90s?

So, we moved towards a contrarian position – inflation, yes… but not for a while. And gold? Well, we are in it for the long run. In the short run, anything could happen.

To clarify our view on gold, the Daily Reckoning is not bearish on the metal. It is not bullish on the metal either. It is buggish. We are gold bugs. In the long run, gold will retain its value. Since that’s all we ask of it, we are always satisfied. Even if it is down in the short

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The cat let out of the bag last week — a frazzled, flaming, rabid, death-dealing cat — was the news that Goldman Sachs announced impressive second-quarter profits, and set aside $18 billion or so for employee bonuses averaging $600,000 per head (though, of course, not evenly distributed among them). There probably are not fifty-three people in the USA who can explain how this development figures in with last fall’s bailout gift from the US treasury, or the $13 billion GS received on the backside of US gift payments to the failed AIG insurance company, plus the reams of necrotic securitized debt paper rotting in the back of the GS vaults. This is a company playing with the fire of world history.

It brings back the question, which has loomed dimly at the margins of America’s collective consciousness, as to whether we can get through the long emergency ahead without

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In the currency market, the dollar rose slightly against the euro. Late Tuesday, the euro was trading at $1.4199 vs. $1.4226 on Monday. Except for the yen, the dollar gained marginally on most of its major rivals yesterday.

“Since the start of the financial crisis of 2007 there has only been one trade across all the capital markets — risk on or risk off. As equities collapsed, the dollar and the yen gained while the euro, the pound and the Aussie along with oil and gold declined,” said Boris Schlossberg, director of currency research at GFT.

“As the recovery trade took hold the process has reversed and all the risk currencies have marched almost lock in step with equity prices,” Schlossberg added.

In economic news, Bernanke was back in front of Congress yesterday, spouting economic fallacy after fallacy that the news media eagerly lapped up and politicians grossly mis-analyzed.

The always-vocal Rep.

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The following is a rant with little editing or consideration.No sooner had the news media reported on her abrupt kidnapping, did we hear of the discovery of the journalist and human rights advocate Natalia Estemirova's body.  I am told that the body was found with bullet wounds to the head and chest on a roadside outside of Nazran, Ingushetia, the neighboring region to Chechnya.Estemirova was a pioneer journalist and member of the beleagured NGO Memorial, and those who worked with her are passionate in describing her commitment, courage, and vital importance as one of the last people still carrying on with the important work of documenting human rights abuses by both the state ...

GWS Technologies, Inc., (OTCBB: GWSC) an alternative energy company developing renewable energy solutions, announced today that it is establishing an advisory board to guide the development of its alternative energy projects.

“The addition of subject matter experts in the fields of real estate financing, alternative energy and manufacturing will enable us to take advantage of opportunities for solar development in the Southwest, including more direct participation in developing solar farms,” said GWS President Richard Reincke.

Christopher Cota of Hermosa Beach, California is the first appointment announced by the company. Mr. Cota brings specialized expertise in commercial real estate acquisition and development financing, as well as electronic component and electronic manufacturing services. “GWS will enable commercial property owners to increase the value of their assets by implementing improvements to their buildings and integrating ‘green’ power generation technologies, as well as assisting our clients to apply for the federal grants and tax

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The Markets Crash, Depression and Hyperinflation - The Triple Crown of Financial Catastrophes.

What a great time to be an economist!

Yesterday was another dull day in the markets. The Dow was steady. Oil rose a buck. Gold went up $3.

But there’s nothing dull about the economic news. Already, we’ve been able to see things we never thought we’d see. It’s as if our strange neighbours had invited friends, and even some animals, over for a night of fun – and left their curtains open.

So far, we’ve seen a stock market crash and what looks like the beginning of another depression, already marked by the biggest bailouts and nationalizations in history. We’re getting an eyeful! And with a little luck, we’ll probably see a bout of hyperinflation too. Crash, Depression, Hyperinflation – this is the Triple Crown of Financial Catastrophes!

It is remarkable enough that we have been able to witness a genuine

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The U.S. news media has convinced many investors that oil consumption is falling because of the global recession. While that may be true, it’s a disservice to millions of investors because production is declining at a pace that’s actually three times faster. And that suggests higher oil and gasoline prices in coming months - perhaps as much as 50% - 70% higher, or more - particularly if a U.S. economic recovery is truly in the offing. To really see what I’m talking about, let’s start with a close look at consumption. I’m asked about this frequently in my global wanderings, most recently at the Las Vegas Money Show last week. For months we’ve been hearing about a drop in global demand. It’s a popular story and one that sounds credible: After all, it seems logical to assume that during economic chaos, consumers and businesses alike will ...

Euphoria managed to out-run swine flu last week as the epidemic-du-jour, with “consumer” confidence jumping and the big bank stocks nudging up. The H1N1 virus fizzled for now, at least in terms of kill ratio, though we’re warned it might boomerang in the fall with a vengeance. No one was surprised to see Chrysler roll over like a possum on a county highway, but the memory of their muscle cars will linger on like a California surfing song. Here in the northeast, where Sundays are not spent at the NASCAR oval, the spring foliage reached the tenderly explosive stage and it was hard to feel bad about anything.

For now, the “bottom” is in — that is, the bottom of this society’s ability to process reality. It may continue for a month of so, even after the “stress test” for banks is finally let out of the massage parlor with a

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