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And Then There’s This…Wednesday, January 07th, 2009

Contrarian Profits (January 7th, 2009) Writes:

When I finally fired off yesterday’s commentary (to my editor) in the wee hours of Tuesday morning, I must admit that I wasn’t overly optimistic about what I would find when I turned my computer on after a few hours of shut-eye. I was expecting the worst…but got something entirely different.

Gold bounced off its lows of Tuesday a couple of times during London trading, but starting at lunchtime in London, and continuing right until the London close at 3:00 p.m. (10:00 a.m. in N.Y.)…gold managed to inch its way higher. Once London was done for the day, it wasn’t too long before the gold price made a spirited rally on the Comex in New York, and turned what could have been a very ugly day into a surprise to the upside.

Silver put in an even more powerful rally…with the bottom being in at 9:00 a.m. in London trading…and from there

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Industrial Metals Rally Strongly

Doug Casey (January 7th, 2009) Writes:

The base metals were all strongly positive on Tuesday. Copper rose from the pre-dawn hours straight through the New York day, just edging below its intraday highs to finish at $1.5308/lb., up more than 10½ cents. Nickel peaked as New York opened, but only slipped a little during the day, closing at $5.8665/lb., up more than 23¾ cents.

Zinc had a decent day, ending at its intraday high of $0.581/lb., up better than a penny and a half. Aluminum pushed higher all day, ultimately adding 3¼ cents, to $0.719/lb., while lead shot straight up to its intraday high of $0.5398/lb., up 4 cents.

Copper led the industrial metals higher, soaring to a one-month high past the $1.50 mark as the new year buying momentum gathered some steam as economic stimulus optimism prevailed alongside the annual portfolio rebalancing by index funds.

“Metals could do somewhat better over the course of the week,” wrote Edward

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Precious Metals Advance

Doug Casey (January 7th, 2009) Writes:

Gold was lower overseas, dropping below $840 at the London open and again just before New York opened on Tuesday, but it edged higher to the noon hour, then really took off, peaking at $870 in early Globex trading before easing to finish at $864.60/oz., up $6.30. Overnight, gold has been flat.

Platinum also pushed higher through the Comex and Globex trading, ending just off its intraday high at $961/oz., up $18. Overnight, platinum is sharply higher.

Silver was stuck around $10.90 until New York opened, then a rally ignited that drove it to $11.50 before it back off slightly to close at $11.44/oz., up 22 cents. Overnight, silver is trending lower. (Click here for charts)

The precious metals all had reasonably strong days, especially considering the mixed support from the usual suspects, as equities moved higher, but crude slipped and the dollar moved higher against the euro despite

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Corporate Bankruptcies Will be a Key Investor Concern in the New Year

Contrarian Profits (January 7th, 2009) Writes:

Investors are breathing a sigh of relief that 2008 is over, but they shouldn’t get too comfortable. After all, with a worldwide recession under way, investors can expect acceleration in corporate bankruptcies in 2009.

But the question is - which ones?

In the financial services sector, 2008 was a year of spectacular failures:

Bear Stearns Cos. and Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. were absorbed by JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC), respectively. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (OTC: LEHMQ) filed for bankruptcy protection. And financial-sector giants American International Group Inc. (AIG) and Citigroup Inc. (C) were both bailed ...
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Stock Market Gyrates as Reports Show Economy Deep in Recession

Contrarian Profits (January 7th, 2009) Writes:

The stock market struggled to recover from a tumultuous 2008 yesterday (Tuesday) while digesting a trio of downbeat economic reports from the manufacturing, housing and service sectors.

The reports included separate data on factory orders and pending home sales for November, as well as the Institute of Supply Management report on the non-manufacturing index for December - giving investors fresh insight into the depth of the current recession.

Despite the overall negative tone of the reports, some analysts maintain the worst may be over.

“While the economic headlines remain grim, stocks are holding higher in quiet trading because a lot of the bad news was already discounted when the stock market crashed in 2008,” Frederic Ruffy, options strategist, at WhatsTrading.com told MarketWatch.

Factory Orders Fall Biggest Since 1992

Data from the manufacturing sector confirmed that the recession accelerated in November. Orders placed

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And Then There’s This…Tuesday, January 06th, 2009

Contrarian Profits (January 6th, 2009) Writes:

Just like Friday morning, gold blasted out of the starting gate as soon as Globex trading began in the Far East on Monday morning. And just like Friday morning, this price spike ran into a wall of selling that went on for about four hours. Then there was a respite until 3:00 a.m. New York time when another wave of selling commenced that lasted right through London…and until the Comex open. Then the dealers (mostly JPMorgan, I would think) pulled their bids for the third and last time…and the price of gold cratered another $10…for the third and last time. Silver really got it in the neck on the Comex open. There was nothing free market about this…this was the Gold Cartel…pure and simple. The US$ didn’t even start to rise until after all the damage was done, so you can’t blame it on that.

It was encouraging to see both

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Trillions…and Trillions…of Fiat Dollars

Alex Stanczyk (January 6th, 2009) Writes:

Alex’s Notes: You know, the word trillion has been used so much recently that it has perhaps lost its impact of how huge those numbers are.

For the entire history of the US, up to 1980 only $1.5 Trillion dollars were created and added to the money supply.

It has been said, that gold tends to revalue and do an “accounting” of all of the fiat money created and added to the monetary system since the last “accounting”.

The last accounting was in 1980, when gold reached $850 an ounce, based upon $1.5 Trillion of created and added up to that point.

I find it interesting to note, that since the last accounting in 1980, the US has added an ADDITONAL $12.5 TRILLION to the money supply, not to mention the additional $8 TRILLION that was added in the last half of 2008.

When gold does an “accounting” this time, what will it go to?

***

The

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Base Metals Stagnant

Doug Casey (January 6th, 2009) Writes:

The base metals were mostly in the red on Monday. Copper sank during the pre-dawn hours, but rallied through most of the New York session before slipping a little late in the day to finish at $1.4251/lb., down less than a quarter-cent.

Nickel pulled back a bit after last week’s charge, closing at $5.6283/lb., down 11 1/3 cents. Zinc was up and down, with a final late upthrust taking it to $0.5651/lb., up nearly a half-cent. Aluminum was off during the pre-dawn hours but rallied back the rest of the day to end at $0.6854/lb., down three-quarters of a cent, while lead regained most of its early lost ground, but still shed better than a half-cent, to $0.499/lb.

It was a desultory day for the industrial metals. Reuters summed up: “U.S. copper futures ended with marginal losses on Monday, after an overnight test of both ends of the trading range held,

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Gold Stumbles Out Of The Block In 2009

Doug Casey (January 6th, 2009) Writes:

Gold started falling as soon as London opened on Monday, and continued down into the first hour of New York trading, hitting its low for the day at $845, then rallied, sold off to the noon hour, and rallied again through the rest of the Comex and the Globex, finishing at $858.30/oz., down $26.60 from Friday. Overnight, gold is sharply lower.

Platinum dropped to its intraday low of $915 early in New York, then staged a strong rally that carried it nearly to $950 before it eased late in the day to end at $943/oz., up $3. Overnight, platinum is slightly lower.

Silver greeted the new year by following gold, albeit with sharper declines and stronger rallies, all of which left it with a close in the red at $11.22/oz., down 31 cents. Overnight, silver has fallen off.  (Click here for charts)

Although platinum held steady, gold and silver began

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New Year Rally, Obama’s Plan, Shorting in 2009, The Second Wave of the Housing Bust, and More!

Contrarian Profits (January 6th, 2009) Writes:

Markets kick off 2009 with sizable rally… what’s behind the best New Year’s rally since 2003…  Obama bounce back in effect… Rob Parenteau on whether his $1 trillion plan will actually work… Dan Amoss on the difference between shorting in 2008 and 2009… Bullish factors for gold (and gold stocks) for 2009… The second wave cometh… more troublesome commercial real estate ripples on the horizon.

For the first time in a long time, we can tell you today that the U.S. stock market is up year to date:

The major indexes rang in the new year with a 3% rally on Friday — the best first day of a new year in the last six. And a sharp contrast to 2008, when the Dow had its worst opening day since 1983.

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