This week, initial claims for unemployment insurance (or jobless claims) were 505,000, the same as last week’s revised figure. However, the initial read was 502,000, so it is just as valid to see this as a 3,000 increase. That, however, is not much in the overall scale of things. The four-week average fell by 6,500 to 514,000, and is now almost 145,000 below its mid-April peak. The graph below (from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/) shows the very significant progress that has been made in brining initial claims down, but also the long way we still have to go. The four-week average is still above the peaks of the two previous recessions. It is also still at a level that would indicate continuing net job losses. We probably have to see initial claims fall below the 400,000 level to indicate that, on balance, the economy is adding jobs. On the positive ...

First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov has announced that Russia has again raised its target for revenue from various state asset sales next year to 100 billion rubles ($3.5 billion), more than 10 times the original target. 'The state will keep a so-called golden share in companies it considers important.'  But the move will link in neatly with Dmitry Medvedev's state-of-the-nation call to reorganize state corporations.  It sounds as though Medvedev is looking to Singapore for ideas about technical innovation, remarking during his weekend visit that 'the system of economic and technical education in your country is of great interest for us.'  The media have been responding to Medvedev's suggestion that Russia reduce its time zones to improve business relations. 'If you were to conflate the time zones totally, then obviously you would have some people who ...

Ever feel like somebodyrsquo;s watching you? If yoursquo;ve traveled to the UK recently, chances are somebody has. An article from Sundayrsquo;s New York Times: ldquo;Britons Weary of Surveillance in Minor Casesrdquo; details some troubling surveillance tactics being used in Britain. According to Londonrsquo;s Evening Standard, more than 10,000 cameras have been set up around the city at a cost of $326 million. These cameras are being used to monitor comings and goings along the streets, nbsp;and to help solve a range of crimes ndash; from pickpocketing and loan-sharking to failing to clean up after a pet. A controversial law enacted in 2000 allows the authorities to install the cameras. The costs are tangible, both in dollar terms and loss of privacy, but the benefit is less clear: The parts of London with the most cameras have a below-average rate of solving crimes, the Evening Standard says. Read ldquo;Britons Weary of Surveillance in Minor Casesrdquo; All opinions ...

Our friends at Elliott Wave International put together an expansive Deflation Survival Guide. The free 60-page eBook is packed with Robert Prechter’s most important teachings and warnings about deflation. This is one of the most valuable resources EWI has ever offered at no cost. Learn more below or download it now for free.

I want to tell you about a financial analyst who’s made the journey from fame to outcast and back. We want to tell you about the man who successfully forecast today’s investment environment when virtually everyone, everywhere said he was wrong.

Please allow me to share with you a quote from a popular journalist of the early 1900s, Kin Hubbard:

“There’s no secret about success. Did you ever know a successful man who didn’t tell you about it?”

To that, we …

My contact over at Robert Prechter’s financial analysis firm, Elliott Wave International, just told me about a free “Conquer the Crash Collection” from Prechter’s New York Times best-selling book. This valuable resource includes 8 lessons on topics critical to your financial survival, including: what you should do with your pension plan, what you should do it you own a business, calling in loans and paying off debt, whether you should trust the government to protect you — and much more. Learn more about this exciting resource, and get your free access here.

Greetings,

In every disaster, only a very few people prepare themselves beforehand. Think about investor enthusiasm in 2005-2007, and you’ll realize it’s true.

Financial analyst Robert Prechter warns that the doors to financial safety are closing all over the world. He believes prudent people need to act while they still can.

To …

New Edition of Conquer the Crash to Be Released in Late October
Bob Prechter first released Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression during a stock-market high in 2002, and it quickly became a New York Times–bestseller. Now he has updated the book with 188 new pages for a second edition, and it looks like it, too, will be published near a stock-market high. John Wiley & Sons plans to publish the new edition in late October. Visit Elliott Wave International for information on how to pre-order the new edition from major online retailers.

As was widely reported in the dark days of late February and early March 2009, Prechter called for the start of the biggest stock market rally since the 2007 high. Since then, the S&P has soared more than 60 percent in just six months to reach …

Mark Hulbert’s Sept. 11, 2009, column for MarketWatch.com says, Robert Prechter “came the closest … to forecasting what was about to take place.” One thing the noted financial columnist left out was that many of Prechter’s forecasts still lie in the future. The long-awaited second edition of Prechter’s bestseller, Conquer the Crash, is finally here! Prudent investors should read his prescient insights, what he believes is still ahead and what you can do to protect your wealth today. Learn more about the special pre-order offer for Robert Prechter’s bestseller, Conquer the Crash, Second Edition.

Today’s financial and economic tribulations were a long time in the making. Many people ask, “Why didn’t someone see it coming?”

But a New York …

Today's New York Times has an excellent article on the difficulty that small businesses are still having in getting loans. While the capital markets have freed up, and as a result larger firms are able to tap the capital markets for bonds and commercial paper, small businesses cannot do that. For very small businesses, the main sources of credit -- home equity loans and credit cards -- are drying up. Now it looks like one of the biggest lenders to slightly larger firms, CIT Group (CIT) is on the brink of failure. The length and depth of the recession has made many small businesses less credit worthy, and banks are being extremely cautious. This looks like it could be another reason that the labor market is going to stay weak for some time to come. The graph below shows the change in employment levels by firm ...

This morning’s New York Times has an important article on the Federal Housing Administration. The FHA has stepped in to back up mortgage loans as the private sector has stopped making them. Essentially, it is playing the role of a sub-prime lender, and appears to be making many of the same mistakes the fallen or defunct sub-prime lenders made. For starters, it is allowing people to buy with down payments of only 3.5%. Further, people can use the $8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit for that 3.5%. Buy a house and walk away from the closing with a check in your pocket. The historical record of people who bought houses with the assistance of charitable down payment assistance programs (DAP) is not a pretty one when it comes to default rates. The tax credit is acting like a massive DAP. The agency now insures 5.4 million mortgages worth ...

Recently, Harbinger Capital Partners, one of the largest investors in The New York Times Company (NYT), offloaded a chunk of its stake in the company. The investment firm sold about 5 million shares at $8.25 per share, fetching $41.3 million in total. This reduces its ownership interest to 16.38% from 19.94%. The shares of New York Times surpassed the selling price and closed at $8.37 on Tuesday, up 2.6% from the previous day’s session. Harbinger made it clear that it has no intention to shed its entire stake. Harbinger Capital started purchasing The New York Times shares nearly two years ago, at prices ranging between $15 and $20 a share, and investing approximately $500 million in aggregate. The firm incurred a significant loss by selling shares at $8.25 each. The investment firm was looking for a ...