By Don Miller Associate Editor Money Morning

U.S. retail sales rose unexpectedly in October as vehicle sales rebounded from a deep slump. However, non-auto sales rose less than forecast, suggesting consumers remain cautious as unemployment surges amid a “jobless recovery.”

Sales at the nation’s retail outlets increased 1.4%, the Commerce Department said today (Monday), much better than the 0.9% increase projected by the median estimate of 66 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. But September sales were revised downwards to a 2.3% decrease from the previous estimate of a 1.5% decline.

Aside from automobiles, other sales rose just 0.2%. That increase marked the third month in a row that sales rose, but failed to meet the 0.4% climb economists had predicted.

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For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – October 19, 2009 – Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week’s list includes Eastman Chemical (EMN), E.I. DuPont (DD), T. Rowe Price (TROW), Western Digital (WDC) and SuperValu (SVU). To see more earnings analysis, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=3207.

Every day, Zacks.com makes 4 stock picks available, free of charge. To see them, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5612.

This Week's Events

Third-quarter earnings season hits full stride this week with 439 companies confirmed to report. More than of a quarter of these are from the S&P 500 (135 companies).

Housing data will be the highlight on the economic calendar. The existing home sales data will be influenced by the first-time home buyers' credit. The starts and permits data could be more interesting, especially if they show fear on the part of builders about the subsidy

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – October 12, 2009 – Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week’s list includes Intel (INTC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Google (GOOG), Fairchild Semiconductor International (FCS) and Safeway (SWY). To see more earnings analysis, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=3207.

Every day, Zacks.com makes 4 stock picks available, free of charge. To see them, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5612.

This Week's Events

Large-cap companies will dominate the earnings headlines this week.

Six Dow components, including Intel (INTC), are scheduled to release third-quarter results. Joining them will be Goldman Sachs (GS) and Google (GOOG). In total, we have confirmed reports from 72 companies, 29 of which are in the S&P 500.

There will be quite a bit of economic data published, including CPI and industrial production and capacity utilization. We will also get the minutes from

This is Part 2 of a guest contribution by David Kotok* and Bob Eisenbeis** of Cumberland Advisors. (Click here for Part 1.)

Note to Readers:  This is the second of our two-part commentary on the Fed’s exit strategy and the role the Fed has played in complicating its own operating strategies and ability to conduct monetary policy.

In their Wall St. Journal op-ed entitled “The BLOB That Ate Monetary Policy” (September 27, 2009), the Dallas Fed’s Fisher and Rosenblum use the movie metaphor of the BLOB to describe the “too big to fail” banks.  They argue that these BLOBs stood in the way of the Fed’s monetary policy’s low interest rates and thereby “gummed up” the “monetary policy channel,” which would otherwise be able to stimulate economic activity.

The op-ed doesn’t name names.  But we will.  If you examine the list of the Fed’s primary

Many investors are somewhat dazed and befuddled as they watch what used to be called “The Natural Resources Sector” bounce up and down as the summer season commences.  With the dollar up again, commodities including the precious metals and oil were off sharply yesterday. All in all, it was just a broadly negative day. Little was spared, including equities, which also took a serious hit.  Even perennial bull James Moore, of TheBullionDesk.com, was forced to write that, “Short-term the metal [gold] could extend lower as a result of the dollar.”  John Reade, of UBS in London, concurred, writing that, “We would not be surprised to see further short-term declines, especially in the absence of any material jewelry, physical-investment or ETF demand.”

How do you put a happy face on that? Easy, according to the folks at Casey Research. “However, the current correction is likely to prove beneficial longer-term with the

By Michael McKee and Matthew Benjamin

April 17 (Bloomberg) — The Obama administration’s bank- rescue efforts will probably fail because the programs have been designed to help Wall Street rather than create a viable financial system, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said.

“All the ingredients they have so far are weak, and there are several missing ingredients,” Stiglitz said in an interview yesterday. The people who designed the plans are “either in the pocket of the banks or they’re incompetent.”

The Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, isn’t large enough to recapitalize the banking system, and the administration hasn’t been direct in addressing that shortfall, he said. Stiglitz said there are conflicts of interest at the White House because some of Obama’s advisers have close ties to Wall Street.

“We don’t have enough money, they don’t want to go back to Congress, and they don’t want to do it in an open way and

To ease the ongoing credit crisis and get banks lending again, the Obama administration realizes that it first has to resuscitate the “shadow financial system” that’s dominated by hedge funds and other large-scale private investors.

Surprisingly, two key ingredients of this turnaround formula will be structured investments, such as asset-backed securities, and leverage - the combination and poorly policed use of which acted as the accelerants that helped fuel the financial inferno that’s now sweeping the globe in wildfire fashion.

But the reality is that new U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner probably realizes that he has little choice.

Nevertheless, there are problems throughout this plan, says Shah Gilani, a retired hedge fund manager and credit-crisis expert who is a contributing editor to Money Morning.

“Maybe I don’t get it because I’m not on the inside of the new Treasury fire-fighting team,” Gilani said. “But it strikes me that

U.S. Treasury Secretary-nominee Timothy Geithner told the Senate Finance Committee yesterday (Wednesday) that drastic measures are needed to combat the U.S. recession and promised to overhaul the beleaguered $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP).

Testifying after former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, Geithner told the committee the United States is facing “the mother of all financial crises.” Geithner also urged Congress to quickly pass a robust stimulus plan, Bloomberg News reported.

“If our policy response is tentative and incrementalist, if we do not demonstrate by our actions a clear and consistent commitment to do what is necessary to solve the problem, then we risk greater damage to living standards, to the economy’s productive potential, and to the fabric of our financial system,” he told the committee at a hearing on his nomination.

The credit crunch and housing market collapse require a “comprehensive plan” that must be

By Shah Gilani, Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Editor Note: Shah Gilani is a retired hedge fund manager, a contributing editor for Money Morning and a noted expert on the U.S. credit crisis. Yesterday, Shah posted an open letter to Barack Obama with a plan to fix the economy. Along with the rest of the world, we are hopefully optimistic about our new president, the future and our nation’s potential. Shah’s words of encouragement and suggestion seem to strike the right balance of concern and hope. Attached below is his letter and plan.

Dear Mr. President-Elect:

The people of the United States have spoken. Their collective voice resonates loudly and overwhelmingly in praise of your vision and promises for America the beautiful.

Over the many voices, the chorus of a common refrain resounds: There is nothing we as a people cannot do if inspired by

” The United States must engineer a new transparent, non-partisan, “systemic-centric,” economy-oriented regulatory apparatus that facilitates innovation in capital formation, product efficacy, public protection and open, fair and equal market access.”

Dear Mr. President-Elect:

The people of the United States have spoken. Their collective voice resonates loudly and overwhelmingly in praise of your vision and promises for America the beautiful.

Over the many voices, the chorus of a common refrain resounds: There is nothing we as a people cannot do if inspired by confidence in our president, honest and transparent democratic government, and equal opportunity in pursuit of our happiness.

Fundamental to our pursuit of happiness is confidence in the viability, integrity and safety of our capital markets institutions. The public’s confidence and reliance upon these institutions to create employment opportunity, to provide protection of the many from the greed of a few, and to shepherd our savings and nation’s wealth have been dangerously