If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months.

But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right - and I have every reason to believe that he will - then investors will be presented with the greatest investment opportunity of our generation. At that point, shares of American companies will be

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Will current Bank of Israel head Stanley Fischer be leaving Israel for the New York Fed? According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Fischer is considered to be a dark horse to fill the vacancy left by Timothy Geithner, who is joining Pres. elect Barack Obama as Treasury Secretary.

According to the Journal, “Outsiders who could be considered include Peter Fisher, a former Treasury official who is now a senior executive at BlackRock Inc.; Stanley Fischer, an economist who runs Israel’s central bank; and Roger Ferguson, a former deputy Fed chairman who is now chief executive of TIAA-CREF, an investment firm that specializes in serving academic institutions.”

The question is whether if this is so, does this mean the Israeli economy is about to go into the gutter. Fischer has a history of bailing out just in the nick of

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Unless you’re a turkey, Thanksgiving is usually a happy holiday. But Bill Bonner says the crumbling economy leaves all of us fearing the axe this year. The global credit crisis has taken us into unchartered territory. And government bailouts will only draw out the inevitable correction.

This from The Daily Reckoning:

“Until today or tomorrow, the typical turkey enjoyed a fairly decent life…” commented our friend Nassim Taleb, in Zurich yesterday.

Yesterday [Wednesday], the stock market was quiet. The Dow ended up 36 points. Oil held at $50. Gold too…it stayed right where it was, at $820 an ounce.

But the slaughterhouses and gold mints worked overtime.

“You can understand how fraudulent most economic analysis is,” Nassim explained, “just by looking the life of the turkey. The animal is fed for 1000 days…and then it is killed. So, if you plotted out the turkey’s life on a chart, it would look

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In the currency market, the dollar sank against the euro. Late Friday, the euro was trading at $1.2587 vs. $1.2453 on Thursday. There were no hard economic numbers out on Friday. The major news item seems to have been the belief that President-elect Obama intends to name New York Fed President Tim Geithner as Treasury Secretary.

Chris Rupkey, senior economist at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York, represented general market sentiment as he hailed the selection: “A fantastic choice to help lead the financial markets out of the wilderness,” Rupkey said. “A crisis manager par excellence who will hit the ground running as he has been on the case since the global funding crisis began way back in July 2007.”

We’ll have to wait and see whether having a key Fed official proves a smart choice to be in charge of the bailout, but at this point even Joe

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If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. And it could last as long as 12-18 months.

But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right - and I have every reason to believe that he will - then investors will be presented with the greatest investment opportunity of our generation. At that point, shares of American

...

By all reasonable measures, we are already in a recession, says Shah Gilani. Deflation has become today’s number one threat. But massive government rescues mean another bout of inflation looms on the horizon. Shah says investors should look to short vulnerable stocks in 2009. But in 12-18 months, they should be prepared for a “generational opportunity” to make a fortune.

This from Money Morning:

If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices,

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Job losses begin to accelerate…  Currencies inch higher…  News of the weird…  China announces a stimulus plan! Good day… And a Marvelous Monday to you!

Well… We might as well get right into this… I’m sure you heard that the Jobs Jamboree was awful on Friday. UGH! Jobs are dropping like the temperatures outside, and there doesn’t seem to be anything to stop them from dropping either! For the record… October’s jobs losses were worse than expected (-200K) and came in at -240K… OUCH! But the real kicker, something the mass media might not have covered, was found in the September revision… Recall that September’s Jobs data showed a negative -159K… Well, that number was revised to -284K! Double OUCH!

I would have to think, given the size of the Sept. revision, that October’s -240K will be revised to near 300K… The job losses are beginning to accelerate folks, and that’s

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If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.” Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months. But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right – and I have every reason to believe that he will – then investors will be presented with the greatest investment ...

Alex’s Notes: Personally, I find it comical that anyone even goes to the DTCC for data anymore. I mean seriously, we are looking to the company responsible to ensure the proper clearing of shares of stock on the US market, who clearly is in cahoots with major brokerages allowing massive naked shorting and letting them get away with it free and clear?

Ya..that makes alot of sense. Fox guarding the henhouse.

The current corruption in the financial centers of the USA is truly despicable.

You want to know how big the credit derivative problem really is? Go research what the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) in Basel Switzerland has to say about it .

Try over $500 TRILLION in notional value.

This beast who lurks in the shadows of the financial world is the boogey man under the bed that no one wants to acknowledge or talk about. But this boogey man is real. And

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One of the follies of the Bush administration was the notion that the class of money-shufflers who got us into the credit crunch could somehow be trusted to get us out of it.  Which is what makes the Obama administration such a breath of fresh — oh, wait, never mind.

MSNBC reported last night that Obama is already getting advice from Ben Bernanke.  That ought to make you feel warm and fuzzy right there.

But wait, there’s more!  As of this writing it appears Lawrence Summers is the leading candidate for Treasury Secretary.  As in, the guy who was Clinton’s last Treasury Secretary.  So much for the promise of “no retreads” in an Obama administration.

I mean, Larry Summers?!  That’s really in-your-face, on any number of levels.  PC-liberal types are still up in arms over his remarks about the size of women’s brains when he was running Harvard, and the general consensus

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