If you haven’t heard yet, then you probably will some point on Monday: Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed in the red on Friday, marking its 12th consecutive decline, the longest since a 15-session losing streak in April-May 1954 during a time of “economic uncertainty” after the end of the Korean War. However, the current losing streak is likely to end over the next day or two, as buyers emerge and tip the close into positive territory. No plunge protection team at work that we know of and largely unnecessary, because even though the Nikkei 225 has declined just over 8.5% during the losing streak, over half of the losses have been limited to double-digits, with most of those being very small in percentage terms. That said, we’re not expecting a strong bounce back, although maybe, perhaps a gradual one, since recovering even 14,500 remains a big hurdle. Know that there’s ...

Global stock markets are still under correction. Major indices haven't succeeded to rally after they bottomed on March this year. Last week Dow Jones Industrial Average has turned into the bear market by drop more than 20% from recent October high. Market lab show still Head and Shoulders bearish pattern for S&P 500 and DJIA on weekly basis. We have closed 4 consecutive weeks in negative for broad US indices.Iran tension and weak USD lift crude oil to new all time high. Another commodity supported by current market conditions is gold by endless sub-prime mortgages financial crises.Worse earnings reports are dragging down shares which again triggers selling pressure on US dollar. Which makes vicious spiral.Outflow from US dollar and shares helping some markets and their currencies. Especially economies growing still at modest pace. Have a look to Czech currency Koruna. Despite 20% appreciation ...

After a month long sell-off that saw Mosaic Company (MOS), Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT), and Monsanto Company (MON) dip from 4-15%, the agricultural chemical companies have rebounded to new highs within the last two weeks. Monsanto is still close to a new high with Mosaic and Potash striking new highs on Wednesday. Corn continues to rally which makes the fertilizers and the seeds required for crop production that much more demanded. Corn is at $7, a new high and the use of crops for fuel is making agriculture follow crude oil in a very strong rally. I like Potash the best of ...

I happen to spend my summers in Norway. I was quite amazed at the amount of negative response received from European posters on the ECB post. I still believe the ECB is making a mistake. Granted, the ECB is dealing with a host of issues the FED does not have, such as, semi-rigid labor markets. I still believe the ECB’s target and potential slavish adherence with keeping to an inflation target will cause a lot of unnecessary pain to the Euro zone. Yes, I am in the “this inflation is transitory” camp. However, the last few days have seen an orchestrated move in several central bank policies. Most notably, the ECB is telegraphing the potential to raise its rates. The Bank of Canada did not cut rates. India has raised rates. China is making moves to drain liquidity from its system. ...

Some people are making this way harder than it is when it comes to making money. I make it very clear when I am going very long and when I am only buying a few to a hundred shares of something. A newbie will not know this but anyone with at least a few months will know that. So when you see that there are so many longs tonight don’t get too excited thinking that this market is going to be super bullish. It is what it is. A low volume rally. But this low volume rally is loaded with short sellers, via the NYSE short interest constantly hitting all-time highs now at 14.27. So as long as the short sellers jump in the market and people continue to deny the rally–bulls fell to 37% from 50% in this week’s investors intelligence poll. I have heard some actually say “I thought we ...

Although not of immediate concern, some of the bullish percents are about to enter bear market (but not bull market) top territory. If January lows represent the start of a bear market then these breadth indicators should top soon. If the current rally is a continuation of the cyclical bull market then there is room for another 15-20% of gain (perhaps as much as 50% for the Nasdaq Bullish Percents). How this impacts on the market remains to be seen, but the likely outcome would be a negative divergence between breadth indicators and the market; indices make new highs as bullish percents fall. Time will tell. I'm traveling to D.C. so there will be no update tomorrow. INS appointment Friday. Get the Fallond Newsletter