Company Description

Casey's General Stores, Inc. together with its subsidiaries, operate convenience stores under the Casey's General Stores name in the Midwest states. It has operations in Iowa, Missouri, Illinois Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Indiana. The company was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.

Earnings Projections are on the Rise

The company is watching analysts boost estimates ahead of reporting fiscal second quarter results in early December. For the year ending April 2010, the Zacks Consensus Estimate jumped from $2.19 to $2.21 per share in 1 month's time.

For the following year, analysts polled by Zacks are calling for earnings of $2.25 per share, up from last month's $2.21.

The second-quarter Zacks Consensus Estimate of 60 cents per share was increased from 57 cents over the past 90 days.

A Solid First Quarter

The company announced fiscal first-quarter results in early September. Earnings of 87 cents per share, exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 45% and topped the year-prior total. During the past 4 consecutive quarters, Casey's delivered an average upside earnings surprise of 17.5%.

The company also declared a dividend of $0.085 per share, which translates into a an industry-leading yield of 1%. The dividend was paid out on November 2.

Beating the Benchmarks

Fundamentally, Casey's is leading the industry. The company's return on equity (ROE) of 14% doubles the industry average of 7%. Its net profit margin of 2% tops the industry average of 0.44%.

Casey's has also outperformed technically lately as shares have doubled the market's return over the past 3 months. Zacks Investment Research

Company Description

Casey's General Stores, Inc. together with its subsidiaries, operate convenience stores under the Casey's General Stores name in the Midwest states. It has operations in Iowa, Missouri, Illinois Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Indiana. The company was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.

A Solid Quarter

The company announced fiscal first-quarter results in early September. Earnings of 87 cents per share, exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 45% and topped the year-prior total. During the past 4 consecutive quarters, Casey's delivered an average upside earnings surprise of 17.5%.

"Strong gas margins and enhanced profitability inside the stores were the primary reasons for the record quarter," said President and CEO Robert J. Myers. "Lower retail fuel prices also brought about significant relief in our operating expenses."

The company also declared a dividend of $0.085 per share, which translates into a an industry-leading yield of 1%.

The dividend is payable Nov 16 to shareholders of record on Nov 2.

Bullish Forecasts and Strong Momentum

The company is seeing higher Zacks Consensus Estimates and a share price surge after reporting. For the year ending April 2010, forecasts of $2.19 per share are up a penny over the past month and are 21 cents higher than the projections of 2 months ago. The most accurate Zacks Consensus Estimate is more bullish at $2.28 per share.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal second quarter stands at 60 cents per share, versus the 2 months-ago level of 57 cents.

Shares of CASY have more than doubled the market's return after reporting first quarter results. Zacks Investment Research

Earnings per share rose to 27 cents from 19 cents a year ago. The Zacks Consensus Estimate called for 18 cents per share.

Revenues jumped 43.2% to $193.2 million from $134.9 million in the year ago period. All three of the company's segments saw growth in the quarter. Equipment sales jumped 44.3% to $141.1 million from $97.8 million last year. Parts sales climbed 37.7% and service revenues grew 44.4% to $15.6 million from $10.8 million in the second quarter of last year.

For the first six months of the year, revenues grew 25% compared to fiscal 2009.

The agriculture equipment business remained strong as the company's customers continued to have access to credit and were investing in equipment. They continue to purchase large tractors and combines. The construction equipment side of the business continued to be soft and was a reflection of the recession and a slowdown in the construction industry.

Titan added 2 agriculture equipment dealerships during the quarter. It also had $86 million in cash and cash equivalents as of July 31 and only $39.6 million in long-term debt.

Titan now operates a network of 68 agriculture and construction dealerships in North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, and Wyoming.

Reaffirmed Guidance

Titan still likes what it sees for the rest of fiscal 2010. It reaffirmed revenue and EPS guidance for the year. Revenue is expected in the range of $750 to $790 million. Earnings per share are projected between 92 cents and $1.04 per share.

Covering analysts moved to adjust their estimates based on the recent results. The third quarter Zacks Consensus Estimate fell 4 cents to 32 cents from 36 cents with 3 out of 4 analysts lowering in the last 30 days.

However, the full year Zacks Consensus Estimate jumped 4 cents to 96 with all 4 analysts raising during that time.

Value Fundamentals

Titan Machinery is now a Zacks #2 Rank (buy) stock. It is still an attractive value stock, trading at 12.5x forward earnings. Its price-to-book ratio is now 1.2. The company has a solid 1-year return on equity of 10.27%.

Read the Feb 10, 2008 article.

Update to Previous Value Zacks Rank Buy Stocks

Tech Data Corporation (TECD) beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third straight quarter in August and sees IT spending stabilizing in the Americas in the upcoming quarter. TECD trades at 14.9x forward earnings. Read the full article.

RockTenn Company (RKT) has surprised on the Zacks Consensus Estimate 3 out of the last 4 quarters and has posted record earnings in both the first and third quarters. Can the company do it again when it reports fourth quarter in November? Read the full article.

Bucyrus International (BUCY) surprised on estimates for the second quarter in a row in July. Analysts forecast 10.6% year over year earnings growth in 2009 despite the global recession. BUCY isn't very expensive, trading at just 10.8x forward earnings. Read the full article.

GOL Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes S.A. (GOL) is finding profit in being Brazil's largest low-cost airline. The company has surprised on estimates the last 2 quarters. The stock is cheap, trading at 9.7x forward earnings. Read the full article.

Zacks Investment Research

Company Description

Casey's General Stores, Inc. together with its subsidiaries, operate convenience stores under the Casey's General Stores name in the Midwest states. It has operations in Iowa, Missouri, Illinois Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Indiana. The company was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa

Bullish Forecasts

The company is seeing higher Zacks Consensus Estimates ahead of reporting fiscal first-quarter results. During the past 3 months, forecasts of $1.97 per share climbed from $1.80 for the year ending April 2010.

For the following year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate was increased from $1.95 per share to $1.97 over the past 3 months.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal first quarter stands at 60 cents per share, versus the 3 months-ago level of 55 cents.

First quarter results are scheduled for release on September 9.

Record Results

The company's fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year report included record earnings for the year of $1.69 per share. Last year, Casey's earned $1.68 per share.

Fourth-quarter earnings of 31 cents per share topped the previous year's 28 cents but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 36 cents.

In fiscal 2010, the company said it plans to increase same-store sales of gas, groceries and prepared food. The company also increase its number of stress by 4%.

Casey's hiked its dividend to $0.085 per share, which was paid out on August 17. CASY's dividend yield tops the industry average at 1.3%.

Solid Fundamentals

The company offers a return on equity (ROE) of 12.5%, surpassing the industry average of 10%. The company's net profit margin of 2% is ahead of the industry average of 1%. Zacks Investment Research

Wipro’s strategy is to expand its range of services in potential growth areas and develop each of those areas as a separate business opportunity. This strategy enables the company to serve clients in more industries and across a greater number of regions than many of its peers, and it has the highest presence in its Indian home market.
 
Wipro recently launched WIPRO RAPIDS (Rapid Application and Integration Deployment Solution) a pre-integrated Billing/Operational Support Systems solution for Communication Service providers. As a part of its cloud computing strategy, Wipro has built applications such as Mortgage Origination Platform for the banking industry, Comprehensive Information Management System for hospitals, Hosted Document Management and electronic data interchange.
 
Wipro is a global provider of IT services, software solutions, research and development services and is the third largest in India. It has development centers in India and abroad, which utilize its global resource pool and quality processes to provide cost-effective IT solutions to its clients around the world. Its primary competitors are Infosys Technologies (INFY) and Tata Consultancy Services.
 
We continue with our Hold recommendation on Wipro.

Company Description

Casey's General Stores, Inc. together with its subsidiaries, operate convenience stores under the Casey's General Stores name in the Midwest states. It has operations in Iowa, Missouri, Illinois Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Indiana. The company was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.

Record Results

The company recently released its fiscal fourth-quarter report, which included record earnings for the year of $1.69 per share. Last year, Casey's earned $1.68 per share.

Fourth-quarter earnings of 31 cents per share topped the previous year's 28 cents but missed the consensus estimate of 36 cents.

In fiscal 2010, the company said it plans to increase same-store sales of gas, groceries and prepared food. The company also increase its number of stress by 4%.

Casey's hiked its dividend to $0.085 per share, noting that it is payable August 17 to shareholders of record on August 3. CASY's dividend yield tops the industry average at 1.1%.

CASY has been trading ahead of market since reporting in mid-June, and stock is beating the market by more than 30% over the past year.

Bullish Forecasts

Analysts' earnings estimates for the year ended April 2010 are at $1.97 per share, above the 2 months-ago level of $1.80.

For the following year, analysts are calling for earnings of $1.97 per share, an increase from the 2 months-ago level of $1.95. Zacks Investment Research

Company Description

The Buckle is a retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men and women in the United States. The company's casual apparel products include denims, bottoms, tops, sportswear, and outerwear.

Known as a denim destination, each store carries a wide selection of fits, styles, and finishes from leading denim brands, including the company's exclusive brand, BKE.

Headquartered in Kearney, Nebraska, Buckle currently operates 393 retail stores in 40 states, including the recent opening of 3 new stores in Savannah, Georgia; Newport News, Virginia; and Pineville, North Carolina. BKE also closed one store in fiscal April. The Company operated 374 stores in 39 states as of May 7, 2008.

Stellar Sales

The company recently posted sales results for the month of June. Comparable store net sales were up 9.6% on a year-over-year basis. Net sales jumped 14.4% to $70.8 million.

Competitive Income

The Buckle declared a dividend of 20 cents in early June, noting that it is payable on July 27 to shareholders of record at the close of business on July 15. The retailer offers an industry-leading dividend yield of 3%.

Rising Estimates

Current full-year earnings forecasts to $2.65 per share are above the 3 months-ago level of $2.53. For the following year, analysts boosted projections to $2.76 per share, versus the 3 months-ago level of $2.57.

The Buckle's earnings came in, on average, 8.55% ahead of analysts' expectation over the past 4 consecutive quarter.

Solid Earnings in the First Quarter

The Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) play posted first-quarter earnings of 58 cents per share, surpassing the previous year's 41 cents and topping the consensus estimate by 18%.

Results for the second quarter are scheduled for release on August 20.

Strong Fundamentals

The Buckle boasts a strong balance sheet with no debt. The company's return on average (ROE) of 32% more than triples the industry average of 9%. Its net profit margin of 13.5% sits high above the industry average of 2%. Zacks Investment Research

In the first quarter, Tenneco had reported adjusted net losses of $29 million or $0.61 per diluted share, compared with adjusted net income of $10 million or $0.20 per diluted share a year ago. Revenues were down 38% year-over-year to $967 million, on lower OE production volumes.

Earlier, Tenneco had stated that cash generation and strict cost management remain its top near-term priorities in the face of the global economic crisis. The company plans to lower its global salary costs by a minimum of 10% each quarter, equivalent to the reduction of salary cost by about $7 million each quarter during 2009.

Senior level executives would take a larger salary reduction. The company plans to downsize 1,100 positions, 500 salaried and 600 hourly, out of its 21,000 employees worldwide.

Tenneco’s total costs are coming down by about $30 million every year. Cost cutting has offset some of the negative impacts of higher raw material prices, particularly in Europe, where 12 facilities have been moved from Western Europe to Eastern Europe and an 11% reduction in headcount has been implemented. About 30% of the production now takes place in Eastern Europe.

Under the current global restructuring program, the company aims at closing three manufacturing facilities in North America – an elastomer plant in Milan, Ohio, and two OE emission control facilities in Evansville, Indiana and Emigsville, Pennsylvania. Internationally, the company is shutting down the Dunsborough engineering facility in Australia.

Tenneco is flexing operations at both its Cozad, Nebraska and Hartwell, Georgia OE ride control plants instead of completely shutting down these facilities. With these measures, Tenneco anticipates generating $58 million in annualized cost savings by the end of 2009.

Yet, what remains a matter of concern is that Tenneco’s fixed costs are about 40% of its sales. Pricing pressure from OEMs, weakening demand for aftermarket parts, and sizeable production cuts at General Motors (GMGMQ) and Ford (F) are the negative factors associated with the stock.

We expect the company to report net losses in the range of $1.50 to $1.55 per diluted share in the second quarter of 2009. Revenues are expected to slip about 20% to 25% year over year. We rate the stock a Hold and set a six-month target price of $11.50.

STATES WITH PROJECTED FY2010 BUDGET GAPS
State	FY2010 pre-budget	FY2010 mid-year gap	FY2010 Total	FY2010 Total % of Budget
Alabama	$1.2 billion	0	$1.2 billion	16.70%
Alaska	$1.3 billion	0	$1.3 billion	30.00%
Arizona	$4.0 billion	0	$4.0 billion	41.10%
Arkansas	$146 million	0	$146 million	3.20%
California*	$34.2 billion	$19.5 billion	$53.7 billion	58.20%
Colorado	$1.0 billion	$384 million	$1.4 billion	18.60%
Connecticut	$4.1 billion	0	$4.1 billion	23.20%
Delaware	$557 million	0	$557 million	17.60%
District of Columbia	$650 million	$150 million	$800 million	12.70%
Florida	$5.9 billion	0	$5.9 billion	22.80%
Georgia	$3.1 billion	$750 million	$3.9 billion	22.30%
Hawaii	$682 million	$297 million	$978 million	19.10%
Idaho	$411 million	0	$411 million	16.40%
Illinois	$9.2 billion	0	$9.2 billion	33.00%
Indiana	$1.1 billion	0	$1.1 billion	7.50%
Iowa	$779 million	0	$779 million	13.20%
Kansas	$1.4 billion	Yes, DK size	$1.4 billion	22.60%
Kentucky	0	$1.1 billion	$1.1 billion	11.30%
Louisiana	$1.8 billion	0	$1.8 billion	21.60%
Maine	$640 million	0	$640 million	21.40%
Maryland	$1.9 billion	Yes, DK size	$1.9 billion	13.60%
Massachusetts	$5.0 billion	0	$5.0 billion	17.90%
Michigan	$2.4 billion	0	$2.4 billion	12.00%
Minnesota	$3.2 billion	0	$3.2 billion	21.00%
Mississippi	$480 million	0	$480 million	9.60%
Missouri	$923 million	0	$923 million	10.30%
Nebraska	$150 million	0	$150 million	4.30%
Nevada	$1.2 billion	0	$1.2 billion	37.80%
New Hampshire	$250 million	0	$250 million	16.20%
New Jersey	$8.8 billion	0	$8.8 billion	29.90%
New Mexico	$345 million	0	$345 million	6.30%
New York	$17.9 billion	0	$17.9 billion	32.30%
North Carolina	$4.6 billion	0	$4.6 billion	21.90%
Ohio	$3.3 billion	0	$3.3 billion	12.30%
Oklahoma	$600 million	0	$600 million	10.50%
Oregon*	0	0	0	0.00%
Pennsylvania	$4.8 billion	0	$4.8 billion	18.00%
Rhode Island	$590 million	0	$590 million	19.20%
South Carolina	$725 million	0	$725 million	12.50%
South Dakota	$32 million	0	$32 million	2.90%
Tennessee	$1.0 billion	0	$1.0 billion	9.70%
Texas	$3.5 billion	0	$3.5 billion	9.50%
Utah	$721 million	$279 million	$1.0 billion	19.80%
Vermont	$278 million	0	$278 million	24.80%
Virginia	$1.8 billion	Yes, DK size	$1.8 billion	10.90%
Washington	$3.4 billion	$195 million	$3.6 billion	23.30%
West Virginia	$200 million	0	$200 million	5.30%
Wisconsin	$3.2 billion	0	$3.2 billion	23.20%
Wyoming	0	$32 million	$32 million	1.70%
Total	$143.2 billion	$22.7 billion	$165.9 billion	24.40%

This will lead to very drastic cuts in state budgets. Access to medical care by the poor will likely be one of the first things to be cut.

Education budgets will also probably be pared. This could be decreased spending on new textbooks, which would not be good news for publishers like McGraw-Hill (MHP) and Scholastic (SCHL).

Another area that is likely to be hit is new equipment at the municipal level. For example, I would not expect Oshkosh (OSK) to have a very good year selling new fire engines and snow removal equipment to municipalities.

Layoffs of state and municipal workers will simply add to the already high and rising unemployment rate. In short, a big part of the federal stimulus spending is being offset by (legally mandated) anti-stimulus actions at the state level.

As the graph shows, state fiscal problems tend to persist well after the recession is officially over. Indeed the problem is usually worse in the second or third year since by then the "rainy day funds" have already been used up.

Following the last recession, states collectively had their worst year in 2004 with a shortfall of $80 billion (or less than half what they face for fiscal 2010), which was well after the recession officially ended. Thus 2011, and possibly even 2012, will be a very lean year at the state level as well.

Chicago, IL - June 22, 2009 - Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Wells Fargo (WFC), Fifth Third (FITB), Comerica (CMA), China Telecom (CHA) and China Unicom (CHU).

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5513

Here are highlights from Friday's Analyst Blog:

States of Unemployment

There are now 14 with double-digit unemployment (27.4%) vs. none a year ago. Eight states have seen their unemployment rates increase by 5.0 points or more, and nine more have seen increases of at least four points.

While all states have seen unemployment go up, four states have had increases of less than two points, and three of them were low unemployment states to begin with. Only two states, Nebraska and North Dakota, have unemployment rates that are under 5%, while a year ago 25 of states did.

The states with double digit unemployment include many of the nation's most populated states (CA, FL, IL, IN, MI, NC, OH). High rates of unemployment will mean more loan defaults and foreclosures. Thus banks with high exposure to high unemployment states are particularly vulnerable:

Wells Fargo (WFC) has lots of exposure to California and to the Carolinas (thanks to its purchase of Wachovia). Fifth Third (FITB) is highly exposed to Ohio, Michigan and Florida. Comerica (CMA) has a big exposure to Michigan.

China Telecom Leads Fixed-Lines

We reiterate our Hold rating for China Telecom (CHA), the largest fixed-line service provider in China. The company entered the Chinese mobile telephony market through the acquisition of CDMA business and network assets from China Unicom (CHU) for RMB 110 billion (US$16 billion).

The company remains the market leader in fixed-line phone service and is well positioned to benefit from the rapidly growing Chinese wireless market. In our opinion, CHA's attractive long-term opportunities arise from its dominant position in broadband, the emerging need for wireless and business from value-added services.

Want more from Zacks Equity Research? Subscribe to the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5515.

About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/ZacksInvestment

Join us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/pages/Zacks-Investment-Research/57553657748?ref=ts

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contact:
Mark Vickery
Web Content Editor
312-265-9380
Visit: www.zacks.com

Chicago, IL - June 22, 2009 - Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Wells Fargo (WFC), Fifth Third (FITB), Comerica (CMA), China Telecom (CHA) and China Unicom (CHU).

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5513

Here are highlights from Friday's Analyst Blog:

States of Unemployment

There are now 14 with double-digit unemployment (27.4%) vs. none a year ago. Eight states have seen their unemployment rates increase by 5.0 points or more, and nine more have seen increases of at least four points.

While all states have seen unemployment go up, four states have had increases of less than two points, and three of them were low unemployment states to begin with. Only two states, Nebraska and North Dakota, have unemployment rates that are under 5%, while a year ago 25 of states did.

The states with double digit unemployment include many of the nation's most populated states (CA, FL, IL, IN, MI, NC, OH). High rates of unemployment will mean more loan defaults and foreclosures. Thus banks with high exposure to high unemployment states are particularly vulnerable:

Wells Fargo (WFC) has lots of exposure to California and to the Carolinas (thanks to its purchase of Wachovia). Fifth Third (FITB) is highly exposed to Ohio, Michigan and Florida. Comerica (CMA) has a big exposure to Michigan.

China Telecom Leads Fixed-Lines

We reiterate our Hold rating for China Telecom (CHA), the largest fixed-line service provider in China. The company entered the Chinese mobile telephony market through the acquisition of CDMA business and network assets from China Unicom (CHU) for RMB 110 billion (US$16 billion).

The company remains the market leader in fixed-line phone service and is well positioned to benefit from the rapidly growing Chinese wireless market. In our opinion, CHA's attractive long-term opportunities arise from its dominant position in broadband, the emerging need for wireless and business from value-added services.

Want more from Zacks Equity Research? Subscribe to the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5515.

About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/ZacksInvestment

Join us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/pages/Zacks-Investment-Research/57553657748?ref=ts

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contact:
Mark Vickery
Web Content Editor
312-265-9380
Visit: www.zacks.com

Company Description

The Buckle is a retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men and women in the United States. The company's casual apparel products include denims, bottoms, tops, sportswear, and outerwear.

Known as a denim destination, each store carries a wide selection of fits, styles, and finishes from leading denim brands, including the company's exclusive brand, BKE.

Headquartered in Kearney, Nebraska, Buckle currently operates 393 retail stores in 40 states, including the recent opening of 3 new stores in Savannah, Georgia; Newport News, Virginia; and Pineville, North Carolina. BKE also closed one store in fiscal April. The Company operated 374 stores in 39 states as of May 7, 2008.

Stellar Sales

The Buckle recently reported a year-over-year increase of 18.2% in same-store store sales for the month of April. Net sales jumped 25.6% year-over-year, from $47 million to $59.1 million.

On a year-to-date basis, same-store sales grew 17.7% from the year-prior year-to-date period. Year-to-date net sales are up 24.6%.

The company is slated to report first-quarter results on May 21, 2009.

Strong Fundamentals

The Buckle boasts a strong balance sheet with no debt. The company's return on average (ROE) of 29% more than quadruples the industry average of 7%. Its net profit margin of 13% sits high above the industry average of 2%. BKE also offers an industry-leading dividend yield of 2.5%.

Estimates are on the Rise

Analysts are calling for earnings of $2.56 per share for the year ending January 2010, versus last month's forecast of $2.53. The most accurate estimate is more bullish at $2.63.

For the following year, analysts project earnings of $2.62, up from last month's $2.53. The most accurate estimate accurate forecast is a higher $2.89. Zacks Investment Research

Company Description

Casey's General Stores, Inc. together with its subsidiaries, operate convenience stores under the Casey's General Stores name in the Midwest states. It has operations in Iowa, Missouri, Illinois Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Indiana. The company was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.

Stellar Earnings

The company saw a solid third quarter. Earnings per share of 28 cents came in 47% ahead of the consensus estimate.

"We are pleased with the execution of our strategy," said President and CEO Robert J. Myers. "We were able to exceed third quarter earnings from a year ago despite a gas margin decline of over 3.5 cents per gallon."

The company has outperformed the market over the past year, receiving an extra boost after delivering the strong third-quarter results.

Wall Street is Bullish on CASY

Current fiscal year earnings projections of $1.74 per share are above the 2 months-ago level of $1.66. For the following year, earnings expectations of $1.80 were increased from last month's $1.74 and $1.70 of 2 months ago.

CASY's fiscal year ends in April, and the fourth-quarter report is scheduled for release on June 10.

Favorable Comparisons

CASY's return on equity (ROE) of 13% is in line with the industry average. The company's dividend yield of 1.2% stands out as most of CASY's industry peers pay no income. Its net profit margin of 2% is also in line with the industry average.

Zacks Investment Research

Will Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) devotees hear words of hope and promise from Warren Buffet at the annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska this weekend? It seems unlikely. Yet, America's most respected investor is expected to draw an estimated 35,000 investors to the Midwest city for the event.

Shares of Berkshire Hathaway have slumped 40% to their lowest level since Buffet assumed office, and the net worth of the company shrank by 9.6% in 2008. As the world sank deeper into the worst downturn since the Great Depression, Buffet had warned investors that the economy would be in "shambles throughout 2009."

"Most of the Berkshire businesses whose results are significantly affected by the economy earned below their potential last year, and that will be true in 2009 as well," Buffett wrote in his annual letter to shareholders on Feb. 28.

Buffet has admitted to making some investment blunders of late. Of the more notable ones would be the move to buy into ConocoPhillips (COP) at a time when gas prices were near their peak, just before energy prices slumped. Such moves not only cost his business empire several billion dollars, but also stripped Berkshire of its triple-A credit rating.

However, Berkshire still has strong credit and plenty of cash. Moreover, with two-thirds of its businesses in utilities and insurance, Berkshire is expected to be more resilient in volatile times. The 78 year-old top boss of the group also played a key role in steadying the economy by injecting $8 billion into Goldman Sachs (GS) and General Electric (GE), calling them "the symbol of American business to the world."

While everyone has been wondering about who will eventually succeed Buffet, as long as the Oracle of Omaha is still around, investors would value his insight more than ever during these troubled times.

Will Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) devotees hear words of hope and promise from Warren Buffett at the annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska this weekend? It seems unlikely. Yet, America's most respected investor is expected to draw an estimated 35,000 investors to the Midwest city for the event.

Shares in Berkshire Hathaway have slumped 40% to their lowest level since Buffett assumed office and the net worth of the company shrank by 9.6% in 2008. As the world sank deeper into the worst downturn since the Great Depression, Buffett had warned investors that the economy would be in "shambles throughout 2009."

"Most of the Berkshire businesses, whose results are significantly affected by the economy, earned below their potential last year and that will be true in 2009 as well," Buffett wrote in his annual letter to shareholders on Feb. 28.

Buffett has admitted to making some investment blunders as of late. Of the more notable ones would be the move to buy into ConocoPhillips (COP) at a time when gas prices were near their peak, just before energy prices slumped. Such moves not only cost his business empire several billion dollars, but also stripped Berkshire of its triple-A credit rating.

However, Berkshire still has strong credit and plenty of cash. Moreover, with two-thirds of its businesses in utilities and insurance, Berkshire is expected to be more resilient in the recession. The 78 year-old top boss of the group also played a key role in steadying the economy by injecting $8 billion into Goldman Sachs (GS) and General Electric (GE), calling them "the symbol of American business to the world."

While everyone has been wondering about who will eventually succeed Buffett, as long as the Oracle of Omaha is still around investors will value his insight more than ever during these troubled times.

Zacks Investment Research
]]> http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/buffett-calling-troubled-investors-zacks-tale-of-the-tape/feed/ 0 http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-china/how-to-bank-real-profits-by-bucking-wall-street%e2%80%99s-latest-fashion-trends/ http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-china/how-to-bank-real-profits-by-bucking-wall-street%e2%80%99s-latest-fashion-trends/#comments Fri, 17 Apr 2009 14:13:26 +0000 Contrarian Profits http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=15696 http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-china/how-to-bank-real-profits-by-bucking-wall-street%e2%80%99s-latest-fashion-trends/feed/ 0 http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/caseys-general-stores-inc-growth-and-income-zacks-rank-buy-2/ http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/caseys-general-stores-inc-growth-and-income-zacks-rank-buy-2/#comments Fri, 17 Apr 2009 05:00:00 +0000 Alex Kolb http://www.zacks.com/commentary/10632/Casey%27s+General+Stores+Inc.+-+Growth+And+Income+-+Zacks+Rank+Buy Casey's General Stores Inc. (CASY) continues to crush the broader market while watching analysts boost estimates. Current fiscal year earnings projections of $1.73 per share are above last month's $1.66.

Company Description

Casey's General Stores, Inc. together with its subsidiaries, operate convenience stores under the Casey's General Stores name in the Midwest states. It has operations in Iowa, Missouri, Illinois Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Indiana. The company was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.

Wall Street is Bullish on CASY

Current fiscal year earnings projections of $1.73 per share are above last month's $1.66. For the following year, earnings expectations of $1.76 were increased from last week's $1.74 and last month's $1.72. CASY's fiscal year ends in April.

Favorable Comparisons

CASY's return on equity (ROE) of 13% is in line with the industry average. The company's dividend yield of 1.1% stands out as most of CASY's industry peers pay no income. Its net profit margin of 2% is also in line with the industry average.

Solid Quarter

The company recently reported favorable results for the fiscal third quarter. Earnings per share of 28 cents came in 47% ahead of the consensus estimate.

"We are pleased with the execution of our strategy," said President and CEO Robert J. Myers. "We were able to exceed third quarter earnings from a year ago despite a gas margin decline of over 3.5 cents per gallon."

The company has outperformed the market over the past year, receiving an extra boost after delivering the stellar results. Zacks Investment Research

Company Description

The Buckle is a retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men and women in the United States. The company's casual apparel products include denims, bottoms, tops, sportswear, and outerwear.

Known as a denim destination, each store carries a wide selection of fits, styles, and finishes from leading denim brands, including the company's exclusive brand, BKE.

Headquartered in Kearney, Nebraska, Buckle currently operates 391 retail stores in 40 states, versus 369 stores in 38 states as of March 5, 2008. This includes the February 25th opening of two new stores in Destin, Florida and Buffalo, New York (BKE's first store in the state of New York) as well as the March 4th opening of two new stores in Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania and Westlake, Ohio.

Solid Income

The company recently declared a dividend of 20 cents per share, noting that it is payable on April 27 to shareholders of record at the close of business on April 15. BKE's dividend yield of 2.3% is well above the industry average.

Quarterly Results Reflect Growth

The Buckle posted strong results for the fourth quarter. Comparable store net sales grew 14% year-over-year, while net sales came in 22% ahead of last year. Annual comparable net sales increased by 21%. Net sales for the year jumped 28%.

Fourth-quarter earnings per share of 74 cents topped the consensus estimate by a penny and eclipsed the previous year's 63 cents. Full-year earnings per share of $2.24 topped the year-prior $1.63.

Bullish Forecasts

Wall Street boosted earnings estimates on the stellar report. Current year earnings projections of $2.46 per share are above last month's $2.31.

Healthy Fundamentals

The Buckle boasts a strong balance sheet with no debt. The company's return on average (ROE) of 29% more than triples the industry average of 9%. Its net profit margin of 13% sits high above the industry average of 3%. Zacks Investment Research

Company Description

The Buckle, Inc is a retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men and women in the United States. The company's casual apparel products include denims, bottoms, tops, sportswear, and outerwear.

Known as a denim destination, each store carries a wide selection of fits, styles, and finishes from leading denim brands, including the company's exclusive brand, BKE.

Headquartered in Kearney, Nebraska, Buckle currently operates 391 retail stores in 40 states, versus 369 stores in 38 states as of March 5, 2008. This includes the February 25th opening of two new stores in Destin, Florida and Buffalo, New York (BKE's first store in the state of New York) as well as the March 4th opening of two new stores in Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania and Westlake, Ohio.

Sales Growth

At time when many retailers experience losses, BKE announced that February same-store sales jumped 21% on a year-over-year basis, while total sales of $63.3 million came in 28% ahead of last year's result.

Estimates are Bullish as BKE Prepares to Announce Earnings

The company is scheduled to report tomorrow on its fourth quarter. Analysts have fourth-quarter earnings pegged at 73 cents per share, up last 72 cents over the past 2 months.

Wall Street is forecasting full-year 2009 earnings of $ 2.22 per share, an increase from $2.20 over the past 2 months.

For 2010, earnings projections were boosted by 5 cents to $2.36 per share in just the past week.

The company's earnings topped analysts' estimates by an average of 7% over the past 4 consecutive quarters.

Strong Fundamentals

The Buckle boasts industry-leading numbers and a solid balance sheet with no debt. BKE's return on equity (ROE) of 28% beats the industry average of 9%. The company's net profit margin of 23% is well ahead of the industry average of 2.5%.

BKE offers a dividend yield of 3.5%, which stands high above the industry average as companies slash dividends. Zacks Investment Research

Company Description

Titan Machinery operates a network of 63 full service agricultural and construction equipment stores in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Wyoming and Montana. Two of the stores are outlet stores. The company represents various brands including, among others, Case IH, New Holland Agriculture, New Holland Construction, and Case Construction.

Titan has been on an acquisition streak in recent weeks.

On Dec 23, the company announced it had acquired Anderson Power and Equipment, Inc., an agriculture equipment dealership in Thief River Falls, Minnesota. Anderson Power, which had been operating since 1972, had reported revenues of $8.6 million for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2008. Titan closed the deal on Dec 22, 2008.

On Jan 23, Titan also reported it had closed on the previously announced acquisition of Western Plains Machinery Co. and WP Rentals. Western Plains and WP Rentals, between them, had 9 construction equipment stores in Montana and Wyoming. The deal closed on Jan 1.

Combined, both companies generated revenues of $48.9 million in fiscal year 2007 which ended Dec 31, 2007, the most recently reported period.

Revenue Jumped 62% in the Third Quarter of 2009

On Dec 15, Titan announced its third quarter 2009 results which easily beat Wall Street estimates by 95.65%, or 22 cents per share. Net income surged 204% to $8.2 million from $2.7 million in the year ago period.

Revenue climbed 62% to $214 million from $132.2 million a year ago. Growth was primarily due to the continued strength of the agriculture economy, acquisitions, and organic growth.

Titan Raises 2009 Guidance

In December, the company was bullish on the rest of 2009 as it saw a strong pipeline for acquisitions, which came to fruition, as well as organic growth.

For the fiscal year 2009, ending on Jan 31, 2009, Titan raised its revenue forecast in the range of $635 million to $675 million compared to the previous guidance of $590 million to $635 million.

Earnings per share climbed to a range of $1.07 to $1.11 from prior guidance of 89 to 94 cents.

Consensus Estimates Rise

Given the strong third-quarter results, 2009 consensus estimates have moved sharply higher in the last 2 months to $1.11 from 93 cents. That is now at the high end of the guidance range.

2010 consensus estimates are also up 11 cents to $1.16 per share in the last 60 days.

Analysts still expect aggressive growth from the company, with a 5-year earnings growth projection of 24%.

Value Fundamentals

Titan Machinery is a Zacks #1 Rank (strong buy). It has surprised 3 out of 4 quarters by an average of 69.14%.

The company is trading at 10.2x forward earnings. It has a price-to-book of 1.22. TITN is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings on Mar 17.

"TITN" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
Zacks Investment Research

Company Description

Northwestern Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides electricity and natural gas in Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska. The company was founded in 1923 and has a market cap of $852 million.

Third-Quarter Results

On Oct 30, NorthWestern reported third quarter results that were ahead of analyst estimates. Net income rose 1.5% to $13.4 million, or 35 cents per share, from $13.2 million, or 35 cents per share, in the third quarter 2007. Analysts were expecting 29 cents.

Gross margin on regulated electric rose 2.7% in the third quarter to $94.7 million from $92.2 million in 2007, mainly due to a rate increase.

Analyst Estimates

Since the solid quarter, analyst estimate have ticked higher. The current-year estimate is up 4 cents in the last 60 days to $1.81 per share. The next-year estimate is bullish, pegged at $2.00, an 11% earnings growth projection.

Valuations

Baaed upon the current-year estimate this stock has a forward P/E multiple of 13X, in range with the overall market.

The Chart

As previously mentioned, shares of NWE have been rallying since November of last year, recently setting a new 52-week and all-time high. Some short-term resistance has developed in this area, take a look at the chart below.

"NWE" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
Zacks Investment Research

Company Description

NorthWestern Energy provides electricity and natural gas to the Upper Midwest and Northwest. The company services over 640,000 customers in Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska.

NWE Beat Wall Street Estimates for the Third Quarter by 20.69%

On Oct 30, NorthWestern reported third quarter earnings that surprised on Wall Street estimates by 6 cents per share. Net income rose 1.5% to $13.4 million, or 35 cents per share, from $13.2 million, or 35 cents per share, in the third quarter 2007. Analysts were expecting 29 cents.

Gross margin on regulated electric rose 2.7% in the third quarter to $94.7 million from $92.2 million in 2007, mainly due to a rate increase.

Volumes in the regulated retail electric segments fell 1.5% because of cooler summer weather over the third quarter of 2007.

Gross margin for regulated natural gas increased to $22.8 million from $20.8 million in the third quarter of 2007 due to rate increases and higher volumes as customer volume grew 1.0%.

NorthWestern Has Cash

NWE finds itself in an enviable position during this credit crisis, as the company had cash and cash equivalents of $8.6 million at the end of Sep 30, 2008. That is up from $4.7 million at the end of Sep 30, 2007.

The company also had a $120.3 million revolver available at the end of September compared with $156.6 million a year ago. The decrease was the result of a $78 million share buyback that was completed in the third quarter.

2008 Guidance Increased

NorthWestern is bullish about the remainder of the year as the company raised full year 2008 guidance to the range of $1.65 to $1.80 from $1.60 to $1.75 it reported on July 31. The forecast assumes normal weather in the company's electric and natural gas service territories for the fourth quarter of 2008.

Consensus Estimates Rise

After the solid third quarter, covering analysts have been raising 2008 and 2009 estimates. Consensus estimates for 2008 rose 4 cents to $1.81 per share in the last month. 2009 consensus estimates jumped 17 cents to $2.00 per share in the last 30 days.

Analysts project 5-year earnings growth of 10%.

Value Fundamentals

NorthWestern is a Zacks #1 Rank (strong buy) stock. It has surprised on estimates 2 out of the last 4 quarters by an average of 23.77%.

NWE is trading at 11x forward earnings. It has a price-to-book of 1.04. As an added bonus, it pays a dividend with a current yield of 6.00%.

"NWE" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
Zacks Investment Research

Company Description

Casey's General Stores, Inc. together with its subsidiaries, operate convenience stores under the Casey's General Stores name in the Midwest states. It has operations in Iowa, Missouri, Illinois Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Indiana. The company was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.

CASY Saw Revenue Growth during a Challenging Quarter

The company recently delivered a solid fiscal second quarter in the face of a difficult environment. President and CEO Robert J. Myers said, “despite the challenging economic environment, same store sales in all three categories were positive for the quarter and customer traffic remained solid.”

On a year-over-year basis, second-quarter revenue increased by about 17%. Earnings per share of 54 cents were even with the year-ago result.

Analysts are hinting toward more growth going forward. For the third quarter, analysts upped the earnings per share forecast by a penny over the past week to 24 cents. For the year ending April 2009, earnings projections have held relatively steady lately at about $1.58 per share.

Competitive Income

Casey's also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share, noting that it is payable on February 16 to shareholders of record on February 2. The company's dividend yield of 1.3% is well ahead of the industry average.
"CASY" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
Zacks Investment Research

Company Description

Casey & General Stores, Inc. together with its subsidiaries, operate convenience stores under the Casey's General Stores name in the Midwest states. It has operations in Iowa, Missouri, Illinois Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Indiana. The company was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.

Solid Growth

The company reported an all-time high in earnings for the first fiscal quarter, surpassing the consensus estimate by nearly 18% and noting that the record quarter gave CASY a solid foundation for meeting its annual performance goals. During the past 5 consecutive quarters, the company missed analyst forecasts only once and on average topped estimates by 11%.

First-quarter sales were up 16.8% to $1.3 billion. Same-store gallons sold increased by 0.50%. Grocery and other merchandise same-store sales climbed 4.7%, and prepared food and fountain drinks same-store sales jumped 12.3 percent.

Favorable Comparison and Higher Expectations

CASY offers a dividend yield of 1%, which exceeds the industry average as CASY's industry group pays little to no income. The company's return on equity (ROE) is 13%, which beats industry average of 5%.

Analyst earnings estimates for the year ending April 2009 of $1.58 per share are above last month's expectations of $1.56. The most accurate projection of $1.63 per share is a more bullish one.
"CASY" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
Zacks Investment Research

"I had a better feeling about Sunday’s eurozone summit. It produced a detailed and co-ordinated national response to recapitalise the banking system, and to provide insurance to revive the inter-banking market. But as far as I could ascertain, this was still agreement on ground rules for national plans, and it is not clear how well this agreement would cover the numerous cross-border issues that have arisen. There is no doubt that, in the eurozone at least, we have come a long way since Friday. It is an okay policy response, but I wonder whether this is going far enough at a time when global investors are pondering whether to pull the big plug."

"What has been done over the last three days should provide elements of reassurance,'' Dominique Strauss-Kahn, chief of the International Monetary Fund said on French radio Europe 1 today. The worst of the financial crisis ``may be behind us.''

``We are looking at our entire system of guarantees and we can imagine new measures to enlarge access to our system of guarantees,'' Trichet said.

So what does all this add up to? Well, to do some simple rule of thumb arithmetic, just to soak up the builders debts and handle the cedulas mess, we are talking of quantities in the region of 500 to 600 billion euros, or more than half of one years Spanish GDP. Of course, not every builder is going to go bust, and not every cedula cannot be refinanced, but the weight of all this on the Spanish banking system is going to be enormous...............So it is either inject a lot of money now - more than Spain itslelf can afford alone - or have several percentage points of GDP contraction over several years and very large price deflation - ie a rather big slump - in my very humble opinion. And it is just at this point that we hit a major structural, and hitherto I think, unforeseen problem in the eurosystem (although Marty Feldstein was scratching around in the right area from the start). The question really we need an answer to is this one: if there is to be a massive cash injection into Spain's economy, who is going to do the injecting? Spain alone will surely simply crumble under the weight, and it is evident that the problem has arisen not as the result of bad decisions on the part of the Spanish government, but as a result of institutional policies administered in Brussels and monetary policy formulated over at the ECB. And yet, the Commission and the ECB are not the United States Treasury and the Federal Reserve, no amount of talk about European countries being similar to Florida and Nebraska is going to get us out of this one: and it is going to be step up to the plate and put your money where your mouth is time soon enough.

University Endowment Funds List

Institution	Endowment (2005) billion USD	Endowment (2006) billion USD	Endowment (2007) billion USD
Amherst College	$ 1.155[1]	$ 1.337[2]	$ 1.662[3]
Baylor College of Medicine	$ 1.008[1]	$ 1.059[2]	$ 1.278[3]
Baylor University	$ 1.008[1]	$ 0.870[2]	$ 1.278[3]
Berea College	$ 0.862[1]	$ 0.949[2]	$ 1.102[3]
Boston College	$ 1.270[1]	$ 1.448[2]	$ 1.670[3]
Boston University	$ 0.777[1]	$ 0.916[2]	$ 1.101[3]
Brown University	$ 1.844[1]	$ 2.167[2]	$ 2.781[3]
California Institute of Technology	$ 1.418[1]	$ 1.581[2]	$ 1.860[3]
Carnegie Mellon University	$ 0.837[1]	$ 0.939[2]	$ 1.116[3]
Case Western Reserve University	$ 1.516[1]	$ 1.599[2]	$ 1.841[3]
Columbia University	$ 5.191[1]	$ 5.938[2]	$ 7.150[3]
Cornell University	$ 3.777[1]	$ 4.321[2]	$ 5.425[3]
Dartmouth College	$ 2.714[1]	$ 3.092[2]	$ 3.760[3]
Duke University	$ 3.826[1]	$ 4.498[2]	$ 5.910[3]
Emory University	$ 4.376[1]	$ 4.870[2]	$ 5.562[3]
George Washington University	$ 0.823[1]	$ 0.963[2]	$ 1.147[3]
Georgetown University	$ 0.741[1]	$ 0.834[2]	$ 1.059[3]
Georgia Institute of Technology	$ 0.937[1]	$ 1.047[2]	$ 1.281[3]
Grinnell College	$ 1.391[1]	$ 1.472[2]	$ 1.718[3]
Harvard University	$ 25.473[1]	$ 28.916[2]	$ 34.635[3]
Indiana University (system-wide)[4]	$ 1.107[1]	$ 1.276[2]	$ 1.557[3]
Johns Hopkins University	$ 2.177[1]	$ 2.351[2]	$ 2.800[3]
Lehigh University	$ 0.845[1]	$ 0.939[2]	$ 1.086[3]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	$ 6.712[1]	$ 8.368[2]	$ 9.980[3]
Michigan State University	$ 0.906[1]	$ 1.048[2]	$ 1.248[3]
New York University	$ 1.548[1]	$ 1.775[2]	$ 2.162[3]
Northwestern University	$ 4.215[1]	$ 5.141[2]	$ 6.503[3]
Ohio State University	$ 1.726[1]	$ 1.997[2]	$ 2.338[3]
Pennsylvania State University	$ 1.175[1]	$ 1.326[2]	$ 1.590[3]
Pomona College	$ 1.299[1]	$ 1.457[2]	$ 1.761[3]
Princeton University	$ 11.207[1]	$ 13.045[2]	$ 15.787[3]
Princeton Theological Seminary	$ 0.864[1]	$ 0.945[2]	$ 1.109[3]
Purdue University (system-wide)[4]	$ 1.341[1]	$ 1.494[2]	$ 1.787[3]
Rice University	$ 3.611[1]	$ 3.986[2]	$ 4.670[3]
Rockefeller University	$ 1.557[1]	$ 1.772[2]	$ 2.145[3]
Smith College	$ 1.036[1]	$ 1.156[2]	$ 1.361[3]
Southern Methodist University(SMU)	$ 1.014[1]	$ 1.122 [2]	$ 1.328[3]
Stanford University	$ 12.205[1]	$ 14.085[2]	$ 17.165[3]
Swarthmore College	$ 1.164[1]	$ 1.245[2]	$ 1.441[3]
Syracuse University	$ 0.818[1]	$ 0.908 [2]	$ 1.086[3]
Texas A&M University System (system-wide)[4]	$ 4.964[1]	$ 5.643[2]	$ 6.590[3]
Texas Christian University	$ 0.942[1]	$ 1.016[2]	$ 1.187[3]
Tufts University	$ 0.845[1]	$ 1.215[2]	$ 1.452[3]
Tulane University	$ 0.780[1]	$ 0.858[2]	$ 1.009[3]
University of California (system-wide)[4]	$ 5.222[1]	$ 5.734[2]	$ 6.439[3]
University of Chicago	$ 4.137[1]	$ 4.867[2]	$ 6.204[3]
University of Cincinnati	$ 1.032[1]	$ 1.101[2]	$ 1.185[3]
University of Delaware	$ 1.077[1]	$ 1.223[2]	$ 1.397[3]
University of Florida	$ 0.836[1]	$ 0.996[2]	$ 1.219[3]
University of Illinois (system-wide)[4]	$ 1.148[1]	$ 1.252[2]	$ 1.515[3]
University of Kansas (system-wide)[4]	$ 0.955[1]	$ 1.049[2]	$ 1.239[3]
University of Michigan	$ 4.931[1]	$ 5.652[2]	$ 7.090[3]
University of Minnesota	$ 1.969[1]	$ 2.224[2]	$ 2.804[3]
University of Missouri (system-wide)[4]	$ 0.849[1]	$ 0.944[2]	$ 1.098[3]
University of Nebraska (system-wide)[4]	$ 1.042[1]	$ 1.153[2]	$ 1.277[3]
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill	$ 1.486[1]	$ 1.149[2]	$ 2.164[3]
University of Notre Dame	$ 3.650[1]	$ 4.437[2]	$ 5.944[3]
University of Oklahoma	$ 0.777[1]	$ 0.960[2]	$ 1.114[3]
University of Pennsylvania	$ 4.370[1]	$ 5.313[2]	$ 6.635[3]
University of Pittsburgh	$ 1.530[1]	$ 1.803[2]	$ 2.254[3]
University of Richmond	$ 1.208[1]	$ 1.388[2]	$ 1.655[3]
University of Rochester	$ 1.370[1]	$ 1.491[2]	$ 1.726[3]
University of Southern California	$ 2.746[1]	$ 3.066[2]	$ 3.715[3]
University of Texas (system-wide)[4]	$ 11.610[1]	$ 13.235[2]	$ 15.614[3]
University of Virginia	$ 3.219[1]	$ 3.618[2]	$ 4.370[3]
University of Washington	$ 1.490[1]	$ 1.794[2]	$ 2.184[3]
University of Wisconsin (UW Foundation only)	$ 1.125[1]	$ 1.426[2]	$ 1.645[3]
Vanderbilt University	$ 2.628[1]	$ 2.946[2]	$ 3.487[3]
Wake Forest University	$ 0.907[1]	$ 1.042[2]	$ 1.249[3]
Washington University in St. Louis	$ 4.268[1]	$ 4.684[2]	$ 5.658[3]
Wellesley College	$ 1.276[1]	$ 1.412[2]	$ 1.657[3]
Williams College	$ 1.348[1]	$ 1.462[2]	$ 1.892[3]
Yale University	$ 15.224[1]	$ 18.031[2]	$ 22.530[3]
Yeshiva University	$ 1.149[1]	$ 1.273[2]	$ 1.410[3]

Related to University Endowment Funds list:

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Company Description

Casey & General Stores, Inc. together with its subsidiaries, operate convenience stores under the Casey’s General Stores name in the Midwest states. It has operations in Iowa, Missouri, Illinois Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Indiana. The company was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.

Solid Growth

The company reported an all-time high in earnings for the first fiscal quarter, surpassing the consensus estimate by nearly 18% and noting that the record quarter gave CASY a solid foundation for meeting its annual performance goals. During the past 5 consecutive quarters, the company missed analyst forecasts only once and on average topped estimates by 11%.

First-quarter sales were up 16.8% to $1.3 billion. Same-store gallons sold increased by 0.50%. Grocery and other merchandise same-store sales climbed 4.7%, and prepared food and fountain drinks same-store sales jumped 12.3 percent.

Favorable Comparison and Higher Expectations

CASY offers a dividend yield of 1%, which exceeds the industry average as CASY’s industry group pays little to no income. The company’s return on equity (ROE) is 13%, which beats industry average of 5%.

Analyst earnings estimates for the year ending April 2009 of $1.56 per share are above last month’s expectations of $1.49.
"CASY" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
Zacks Investment Research

WhatÂ’s one of your top names in alt-energy, and how did it perform recently?

Looking ahead, increasing ethanol prices, recent bullishness in the energy bill for ethanol production, rising crude oil prices, ongoing capacity expansion plans and value unlocking through synergies from the recent merger with USBE should maintain growth momentum over the near-term.

Where do you perceive the risks to be with owning this stock?

Risks include the cyclicality of the ethanol industry, a tight credit market, a rising debt level and escalating prices of corn and natural gas. As of now, we maintain a BUY recommendation on VSE with a six-month target price of $9.75, representing 38.7% upside potential.

Can you tell us about another recently reviewed alt-energy company?

Aventine Renewable EnergyÂ’s (AVR)

However, like its peers, the low-cost ethanol player is facing escalating cost structure though on a lower scale on account of rising corn and natural gas prices. Such price volatility along with loss related to auction-rate securities impacted AVRÂ’s performance in the 2nd quarter of 2008.

So how are you recommending AVR at this time?

Rapid ethanol supply growth continues while demand has been held back due to constraints in refineries infrastructure. Therefore, with a mixed outlook, we maintain a Hold recommendation on AVR with a six-month target price of $7.75, representing 8.8% upside potential.

Jon Kolb is a senior analyst covering the alt-energy industry for Zacks Equity Research.
"VSE" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
Zacks Investment Research

Company Description

Valmont Industries, Inc designs and manufactures a variety of metallic structures including street lights, wireless towers, and irrigation systems. The company also provides protective coating services. Valmont is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, but has operations world wide. The company carries a market cap of $2.6 billion.

A Record Quarter

Valmont announced second-quarter results on July 18th, including record Net Income of $1.41, a 38% year-over-year increase from $1.03. Analysts were only expecting earnings of $1.34 per share, yielding a 5.5% surprise. This was the fourth earnings surprise in as many quarters, with an average surprise of 13.3%

The company also set a quarterly sales record of $497.1 million compared to $402.3 million in second quarter last year.

The excellent quarterly results are being attributed to an international increase in demand for irrigation equipment, up 48% year-over-year. However, the company's three remaining segments also saw an increase in sales. Most notably Engineered Support Structures, which accounted for 38% of total sales, after a 19% increase from the second quarter of last year.

Hedging Inflation

Valmont also saw an increase in Operating Income of 1.6%, now 12.7% of total revenue. The company has been able to effectively manage an unprecedented rise in steel prices, which represent approximately 35% of the companies cost of goods sold.

Acquisitions are Paying Off

On February 6th, Valmont announced the acquisition of 70% of West Coast Engineering Group, which is currently being incorporated into Valmont's operations. West Coast, which has annual revenue of over $40 million, made a significant contribution to the quarterly sales increase shown by the Engineered Supports Structures Segment.

The acquisition of PennSummit, also announced earlier this year, was the driver for the Utility Support Structures Segment, which saw sales jump 13%, compared to one year ago.

The Chart

Shares of VMI jumped on after the second-quarter announcement and could be establishing a new level of support at $100 per share. Take a look at the chart below.

"VALM" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
Zacks Investment Research

Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat again
John Maynard Keynes

'As far as I am concerned, this is ... the most complex crisis we've ever seen due to the number of factors in play'
Spanish Economy Minister Pedro Solbes speaking this week to Spanish radio station Punto Radio

Jose Luis Borges tells a story about two rascally villains, eternal rivals, who - under sentence of death - are offered one last bet: rather than accepting a conventional execution they can agree to have their throats slit simultaneously, just to see who is a able to run the farthest. Immortality, rather than fame, in an instant. Now I mention this since tale I can readily anticipate the immediate feelings many will have on reading what follows (I am at the end of the day going to argue that it is necessary to inject money - and I do mean rather a lot of money - into a banking and construction system which many will want to argue is largely responsible for Spain's present distress, and indeed, that having made a good deal of money out of the operation, these are the very people who should now be forced to don that sackcloth and ashes costume which so behoves them (actually the way things stand they are much more likely to find themselves reduced to a sporting a loincloth, but still). I understand why many ordinary Spanish people may have such feeling, but I do think this is a time for cool heads, and that what is most needed here is an extreme dose of pragmatism coupled with a lot of emotional intelligence. There is no point in agreeing to have your own throat slit just to see people you don't like have their's slit first.

Martinsa Fadesa The First To Go

This week's filing by the Spanish property developer Martinsa-Fadesa for protection from its creditors has brought Spain's ongoing economic agony back to the headlines. The decision follows a request from Martinsa Fadesa last Friday to its creditor banks for a postponement of the deadline on their requirement that the company obtain a 150 million euro ($235.7 million) loan. The banks refused the request and the rest is now, as they say, history. The failure of Martinsa - Fadesa whose debts are in the region of 5 billion euros - is not only the largest corporate bankruptcy in Spanish history, it is also a reflection of the pain which must now be being felt in Spain's troubled banking and construction sectors, and a harbinger of what is, in all probability, going to be much worse to come.

Spain At Risk

So to come directly to the matter which has provided me with the header to this post, just what is the risk that the present recession in Spain is something a bit more than a mere recession? What is the risk of a real and serious economic melt down just across France's Southern border, a mere stone's throw away (by plane) from Brussels or Frankfurt, yet still on the other side of that intellectual and cultural divide which seems to be formed by that ever so picturesque natural barrier known as the Pyrennees? Well it is a non-negligable one, in my view. Let me explain a bit.

First, as background it would be worth reading my Artemio Cruz Syndrome post, since all the main macroeconomic arguments are presented there (and those who seriously want to know what is going on should definitely read the excellent "Spain:Bubble Bursting - We now expect a full-blown recession" desknote from PNB Paribas).

Secondly, we need a bit of vocabulary clarification, since the terminology being used has become somewhat confusing of late. We could reasonably break things down as follows I think:

i) Soft Landing
ii) Hard Landing
iii) Melt Down

Now, in terms of the available semantic space, why don't we allow that "soft landing" means a recession of the more or less garden variety (as Portugal or Italy have at this moment, or as say France may anticipate, or Denmark) and not consider this to mean avoiding recession completely, which is how some seem to have used the term in recent times (I think it is hard to imagine any EU 15 economy avoiding recession completely between now and Q2 2009). Possibly Hungary up to this point could also be said to have had a comparatively soft landing.

"Hard Landing", on the other hand would be what they are currently experiencing over in the Baltics, what they may well soon experience in Romania, Bulgaria, the UK, and Ireland, and what is now most certainly taking place in Spain. Thus by "hard landing" I mean a very sharp slowdown in growth, a medium sized contraction in consumption, financial distress and bankruptcy in some areas, and a recession which drags itself on for more than a mere two quarters (in and out of negative growth) and probably results in annualised negative growth for a period of at least 12 consecutive months. What happened in Turkey in 2000 was certainly a hard landing in this sense.

iii) "Melt Down", following such definitions, would then be a Hard Landing plus, a Hard Landing plus a shock (or in Hungary's case, where the shock would be a run on the forint, you could imagine what initially is only a Soft Landing being converted into a melt down, but arguably Hungary's case is very special given the very high level of exposure of household balance sheets to CHF denominated forex loans).

Such a shock could be a banking crisis, a run on the currency, a sovereign default (this is where Italy's series of perpetual soft landings could move decisively into meltdown mode one of these fine days if something isn't done to correct the low growth/high sovereign debt to GDP dynamic while there is still time).

Now in this sense, Spain's economy is at some significant level in danger of having a melt down - lets define this as more than two years of negative GDP growth with a magnitude of more than one percentage point, coupled with (in the case of countries which have their own currency) very sharp devaluations, and in the case of those that don't severe and extended price deflation (ie a mini version of what happened in the USA in 1930).

Now the recession in Spain is, I think, more or less most certainly already served. The Spanish press were talking earlier in the week about a quarter on quarter contraction of 0.3% in Q2, and it is hard to see any acceleration of the economy in Q3. Pedro Solbes, when questioned explicitly by Punto Radio on the possibility that whole year growth for 2008 could turn negative replied diplomatically "It's not my feeling at the moment", which means basically that it might well turn out to be the case.

If this expectation if fulfilled then Paribas may have to revise their latest forecast slightly (see above link) since - in what is really an excellent general analysis - they pencil-in the recession to start in Q3 2008 and then move on to anticipate a contraction in the Spanish economy of 0.75% in 2009 (although as they freely admit all the risks here are skewed to the downside). My own personal call at this point is that the recession may well have started in Q2 (we will soon know) and that the contraction in whole year 2009 will be over 1 percentage point. Further than that I am not willing to go at this stage, since it all depends, and in particular it depends on whether or not we get a nasty "event" or series of events which send the economy hurtling out of the "hard landing" bracket and into the "melt down" one. It is because I strongly believe we be should doing everything we possibly can to avoid that eventuality that (and not continue to languish under our blankets with a heavy dose of the Artemio Cruz syndrome) that I am writing this post now.

Before continuing, however, I should point out that even the Paribas idea of negative growth in 2009 is still very nonconsensual, despite the widespread pessimism which currently surrounds the Spanish economy. The consensus economic survey for June gives a median 2009 growth forecast of 1.5%. The lowest forecast in the survey is 0.4% but most are grouped in the range 1.0-1.8%. Maybe the consensus will catch up with the curve in due course.

Structural Unwind

So what would be my justification for making such an apparently gloomy forecast? Well as I argue in my Artemio Cruz piece, and as Paribas re-iterate in their study, this is no ordinary crisis. It is taking place against a background of a severe credit crunch which affects the entire financial sector, in a country with an enormous external deficit (CA deficit over 1o% of GDP and rising), which has a strong external energy dependence, and at a time when food and energy prices have been rising sharply. All of this is bound to exert a very strong downward pressure on internal consumer demand, and as a knock-on impact on investment spending. At the same time slowing growth globally, and in the EU and eurozone economies in particular, makes for a very difficult external environment where increasing exports (even assuming Spanish export prices were currently competitive, which they aren't) becomes difficult, if not well nigh impossible.

Serious Structural Distortions

So let's take a quick look at some of the underlying structural issues. In the first place both Spanish households and corporates are extremely highly leveraged at this point in terms of their outstanding debt obligations. The levels of debt to GDP are really extraordinarily high when compared with their eurozone peers.



So how did Spain get into this rather precarious situation? Well I don't think you need to look too far to discover the answer. As can be seen in the chart below, Spain effectively had negative interest rates throughout the entire period between the start of 2002 and the autumn of 2006. That this state of affairs was produced in the very earliest years of the history of the eurozone was indeed, in my opinion, truly unfortunate, since it meant that inflation expectations had not had time to be "steered down" by a central bank track record. Thus a very widespread reaction on the part of ordinary Spaniards to what were generally perceived to be derisory interest rates for savers was to withdraw money from longer term deposit accounts and to place it in what was considered to be the safest of safe inflation hedges: property. Thus began what may well turn out to have been one of the most serious property bubbles in recent history.

The situation was also doubly unfortunate, since the ECB along with other central banks had lowered interest rates in an attempt to support economic weakness produced by a drop in stock market values following the collapse of the internet boom. In Spain's case however, the excesses caused by the internet boom never really had the opportunity to unwind, since as one boom ended, another one simply got going in its place. This effect can be clearly seen in the chart for long term quarterly GDP growth produced below, where we can see that following the 1992/93 recession (and up to Q2 2008) Spain simply hasn't had one single quarter of negative growth - that is during 15 years. Hence the legend of the Spanish economic miracle was born. But as with all legends, we should also really be asking ourselves what the reality was which lay behind it, since as we can now see, the absence of recession - and in particular the absence of recession in 2002/03 - simply means that we now have a lot of extra "distortion" lying out there and waiting to be "corrected" (the waste-pipes were effectively never flushed, which is why we are now faced with such a peculiar smell emmanating from the sewage system). This would be the main reason why I would argue that what we cannot now expect is a relatively smooth "return to trend" in 12 to 18 months time, since Spain has effectively been "off trend" for some six or seven years now, and the magnitude of the excesses (10%+ CA deficit, 5 million immigrants in eight years, corporate indebtedness pushing the 120% of GDP mark etc etc) is prima facie evidence for this. So even in the best of cases we are almost certainly now facing a significant period of negative and then very low headline GDP growth. But we may not be lucky enough to get away from all this with a simple best case scenario.



The last piece of structural evidence I would offer in this post refers to the CA deficit situation. Since I deal with that reasonably exhaustively in the Artemio Cruz piece, I will only refer to one item here: the deteriorating balance on the income account.

Now this is important in my opinion. It is important since obviously any of the remedies to Spain's short term financing problems imply borrowing money (in some way, shape or form via the support which is offered by belonging to the eurosystem). Spain needs one of those proverbial "bailouts", even though since Spain does not have its own idependent currency this position is somewhat masked by the fact that everything is denominated in euros. But debts incur interest, and the more you borrow, the more you effectively have to pay, not only in capital, but also in interest. And if Spain country risk rises sharply in any way - as some analysts are suggesting it may have to - well then what is already a serious problem is only going to become a more serious one.

Land Prices


So where are the risks? Well I think it is no simple accident that Martinsa-Fadesa has been the first major developer to go, since a very large part of their portfolio is composed of land. According to press reports Martinsa Fadesa had land totalling 28.67 million square metres, 41 percent of which is outside Spain (and 50% of which is not "zoned", that is it is without the necessary premission to build). They also have a stock of more than 173,000 newly-built and unsold properties (again by no means all of these are in Spain). Now land is going to be a very important component in this whole "correction", since a lot of land (as we can see) has been accumulated with intent to build, and much of this land may now become virtually worthless. And land prices are already falling faster than house prices. Data from the Ministry of Housing shows that land for building fell to 251 Euros/m2 in March, a 7.7% drop when compared with March 2007. Land prices had fallen for 3 consecutive months by March with the average cost of land in Spain now being back somewhere around where it was at the end of 2004.

So I would say this is one of the first issues the Spanish government needs to tackle, and quite urgently. Frankly I can see little alternative to having the government intervene and take this land off the books of those who are holding it - not at market prices, they can handle some sort of "haircut" - but I don't think the government should be sitting idly back and watch one developer after another simply fold, since the end result of this is that the problem then moves over into an already overstretched banking sector.

Which brings me to my exhibit one: Japan land prices.

One of the key features in Japan's ongoing battle against deflation has been the way in which land prices were simply allowed to fall after the property bubble burst in 1991. The above chart shows the sharp rise in Japanese land prices from 1986 to 1990 - a period during which they more than doubled - and how they subsequently fell - albeit more gradually — by roughly two thirds from 1990-91 to 2005. Although urban land prices started to turn up slightly post 2006, land prices still continue to fall elsewhere, and of course we still haven't seen how the latest construction "bust" in Japan is going to leave things. Unsurprisingly, residential construction has remained virtually dormant in Japan over this entire deflationary period.So the question is, what is to stop this happening in Spain. I would be grateful to anyone who can present me with a reasoned argument as to why what happened in Japan won't happen here. Meanwhile the risk is evidently there.

The Builders In General

Obviously even if the most immediate and pressing problem in Spain is arising in the area of land prices, the rest of the housing related construction sector will not be far behind. This is a problem that is simply waiting to happen. According to the latest data from the Spanish housing ministry, average Spanish property prices fell by 0.3% in the 3 months to the end of June, but they were still 2% up on prices in Q2 2007, a factor which is leading many to question the reliability of the Spanish data (one more time Artemio Cruz strikes, since Spanish institutions are far from swift in responding to problems, and would seem to prefer denying that they exist). One explanation for the present situation may be that prices are being measured in terms of the initial asking price and not the final selling price. Whatever the explanation prices are certainly set to tumble, and even the the G-14 developers’ association, traditionally a staunch upholder of the immobility of property values, has had to admit that new-build prices have fallen by 15% in the last 6 months alone, while Cue Mariano Miguel, ex-president and present board member of the much troubled developer Colonial, is already predicting a fall in the region of 25% to 30% over the next two years. And new property in Barcelona (which is where I live) is now taking ten times longer to sell than it was only a year ago, according to real estate consultancy Aguirre Newman.

Meanwhile we learn from Jose Luis Malo de Molina, director general at the Bank of Spain (speaking at a recent conference in Valencia) that the number of new homes which will be completed in Spain in 2008 will beat all previous records (I said this was a system which was slow to react), simply piling one more house after another in order to add to that glut of newly completed homes that is already idly languishing and casting its long shadow over the Spanish property market. Muñoz's explanation for this phenomenon is simply that “the real estate sector can’t turn around quickly, it works in the medium and long term, so this year the properties started at the end of 2005 and beginning of 2006 will be completed, which means the number of new properties on the market will hit an all time high.” As I say, "just in time" may be an idea that has entered the heads of the more agile companies like the textile consortium Inditex, but most of Spain is a very, very long way from being able to offer an agile response. On the anecdotal front, a friend of mine recently went to visit family homes in the North West of Spain. In Vigo he spoke to the owner of a brick factory, and in Leon someone who had a quarry. In both cases production was continuing (there is simply no on/off switch here) but the inventory already had piled up to the extent of being now prepared to satisfy normal requirements for the whole of 2009 (in both cases), and of course, in 2009 requirements will not be normal, since housing starts in 2008 have collapsed to a forecast of below 200,000 (down from 600,000 plus in 2007).

At this point estimating the volume of unsold housing in Spain is really a question of "its anyone's guess" rather than a matter of scientific fact. The number 1 million is popular, but I suspect this is more a question of serving up an easily managed factoid than one of accurately measuring empty houses one by one. The same applies to the estimates for the size of the likely fall in property values. All we can safely say at this point, I think, is that the number in both cases is large.

The big question for our current concerns is who is exposed to the risk on all this, and the answer to that question is a lot simpler: Spain's already cash-strapped banking system.

One common estimate of the exposure of the banks to the builders would be somthing of the order of 300 billion euros - this is the opinion of Spanish analyst Inigo Vega at Iberian Securities (and it is one I more or less share). So we could say we have something in the region of 20% to 25% (or more) of Spanish annual GDP in play here.

Bank Exposure Through Mortgage Backed Securites

To this second order exposure of the banking system to the construction sector alone (and remember, through the negative impact of all this on the real economy, we should never lose sight of those non-construction corporates, you remember, the ones who had all that indebtedness we saw in the first chart) we need to add the exposure of the banks to the cedulas hipotecarias, which alone run to something in the 250 to 300 billion euro range (to which we need to add, of course, other classes of more conventional mortgage backed-securities ). If we add these two together - the builders and the cedulas - then we are obviously talking about a potential injection into something of over half of one years GDP in Spain.

According to Celine Choulet of PNB Paribas mortgage-backed securities in the broader sense of the term (ie including cedulas and MBS) now add up to around 37% of outstanding mortgage loans in Spain. She also estimates that asset backed securities held by non-residents may amount to as much as 81% of the total securities issued.

Outstanding home loans (for purchases and refis) represent a substantial percentage of the Spanish banking institutions’ balance sheets (21.5% of total assets and 35.6% of total loans to the non-financial private sector in the second quarter of 2007). In the second quarter of 2007, outstanding home loans amounted to 589 billion euros, 56.4% of which were distributed by cajas (29.8% of their assets), 37.2% by commercial banks (15.4%) and 6.4% by mutual institutions (30.9%).

If we add together home loans and the financing of real estate sector (construction and property services), the overall exposure of Spanish credit institutions has increased significantly over the last decade (37% of assets in the second quarter of 2007, 61.5% of total loans to the non-financial private sector). Exposure of Spanish banks to the real estate sector has exceeded, both in level and in growth rate, that of US, Japanese and British banks. In total, in the second quarter of 2007, cajas (49.7% of assets, 70.5% of loans) and mutual institutions (46% and 56.3% respectively) were almost twice as exposed as commercial banks (28% and 55.2% respectively).

According to Choulet - and just to take one example - in 2006 total new funding to the Spanish mortgage market reached 201.3 billion euros, of which 88.3 billion took the form of covered bonds (representing 43.9% of the total of mortgage securities market) and 113 billion was in mortgage-backed securities (56.1%).

And remember the cedulas all need to be "rolled over" in the next few years (with a big chunk coming up between now and 2012). And the problem starts this autumn. According to an article in the Spanish daily El Pais at the end of June the Spanish banking sector needs to raise 62 billion Euros before the end of this year just to rollover what they have coming up on the immediate horizon.

So what does all this add up to? Well, to do some simple rule of thumb arithmetic, just to soak up the builders debts and handle the cedulas mess, we are talking of quantities in the region of 500 to 600 billion euros, or more than half of one years Spanish GDP. Of course, not every builder is going to go bust, and not every cedula cannot be refinanced, but the weight of all this on the Spanish banking system is going to be enormous. Banco Popular is the most visible sign of the pressure, and their shares have already dropped by 44% this year, and by 7.9% on Tuesday alone (they were the listed bank which was most exposed to Mrtinsa Fadesa).

So it is either inject a lot of money now - more than Spain itslelf can afford alone - or have several percentage points of GDP contraction over several years and very large price deflation - ie a rather big slump - in my very humble opinion. And it is just at this point that we hit a major structural, and hitherto I think, unforeseen problem in the eurosystem (although Marty Feldstein was scratching around in the right area from the start). The question really we need an answer to is this one: if there is to be a massive cash injection into Spain's economy, who is going to do the injecting? Spain alone will surely simply crumble under the weight, and it is evident that the problem has arisen not as the result of bad decisions on the part of the Spanish government, but as a result of institutional policies administered in Brussels and monetary policy formulated over at the ECB. And yet, the Commission and the ECB are not the United States Treasury and the Federal Reserve, no amount of talk about European countries being similar to Florida and Nebraska is going to get us out of this one: and it is going to be step up to the plate and put your money where your mouth is time soon enough. Yet, cor blimey, we are still busying ourselves arguing about the small print on the Lisbon Treaty.



Demographics and Construction


The third major area of risk I would like to highlight today relates to the problem of demographics and their impact on the construction outlook. PNB Paribas (see initial link) see demography as one of the principal downside risks to their forecast. They put it like this:

"With United Nations population projections pointing to growth of only 300k per year on a ‘high-population’ variant for 2010-15, housing starts could fall considerably further. Hence the risks to our central forecast of 30% off housing investment by end-2009 are to the downside. The correction could be more rapid than expected. If not, it is likely to persist into 2010. ...........Our forecast has housing investment converging to levels consistent with relatively strong population growth. A weaker population assumption or some undershoot of the ‘equilibrium’ level would lead to a worse outcome."

Basically, I think the big topic in this context is the coming rate of new household formation. And here it is worth remembering that while the countries most affected by the property-driven credit crunch in the EU would appear to be Spain, Ireland and the UK, the UK is rather different from the other two, since while housebuilding grew by 187% in Spain between 1996 and 2006 (and by 177% in Ireland), the equivalent increase in the UK was just 12%. Planning restrictions in Britain meant fewer homes were built and the resulting relative scarcity may provide one part of the explanation for why house prices have almost doubled, in real terms, in the UK since 1999 despite the comparatively low percentage of new builds (this would bring us back to the huge zoned and un-zoned lang overhang in Spain, and what the dynamics are that produced it). That is, while the UK can to some extent offset the impact of the crisis in the longer term by increasing homebuilding (to house, for example, all those extra people from Poland and other parts of Eastern Europe), in Spain and Ireland the problem is going to be very different, since they both have to sharply reduce housebuilding capacity.

So what are the main sources of new household formation in Spain? Well basically they are threefold: natural population development, migration, and second homeowners from the north of Europe. Now if we start with the question of natural population evolution in Spain, ex-migration the Spanish population is virtually stationary at this point - with an average annual increase of a mere 30,000. But what matters in housing terms is not so much the size of the population as its age structure, and here we don't need to go to the level of refinement involved in looking at longer term UN population projections (high, median or otherwise) because in terms of Spanish property from now to 2020 (at least in terms of natural population drift) the deal is now done (or rather the goose is now cooked), and a quick glance at the US Census Bureau IDB population pyramid for 2000 should make this abundantly clear (see below).

What we can effectively see is that in 2000 (and please click on the image if you want a better look) Spain's three historically largest 5 year cohorts constituted the 25 to 40 age group. But if we mentally fast forward as far as 2015 we will see that the aggregate size of the cohorts in this age range is very significantly smaller, and if we fast forward again to 2020, we will see that what we have are the three smallest cohorts in the last forty years. And from here on in we only go down and down - talk about absence of sustainability!

So we are left with North Europeans is search of second homes and migrants to offer some support to Spain's rapidly crumbling housing sector in the coming years. Well on the North Europeans front the picture doesn't look exactly promising either, since the bulk of the buyers in recent years have been British (Britons own an estimated 500,000 to 700,000 properties in Spain), and they are already having their own problems, plus the fact that changes in the value of the GBP and interest rates mean that affordability is becoming an issue, an issue to which you have to add the drop in attraction of properties whose prices may now be set to seriously deflate, and over a significant number of years.

Indeed, according to Manuel Gandarias, president of the ‘Live in Spain’ holiday-home developers’ association, sales of holiday homes in Spain are now down by 50% from the peak “In recent years between 120,000 and 125,000 holiday homes were sold each year, this year it will be half that,” he is quoted as saying. And of course it isn't only the cost of buying the home that has been going up, it is also the cost of servicing the debt that buying the home brings with it. Josep Suárez, director at Solbank in London estimates that the combined impact of rising Euribor rates and the appreciation of the Euro against the pound (15% in the last 9 months) means that mortgage payments for Britons with mortgages in Spain are now 25% higher than they were a year ago.

So the outlook on the North European second home market doesn't exactly look bright either, which leaves us with the migrants. As is now generally well known, Spain's population has increased dramatically in recent years - from around 40 million in 2000 to around 45 million in 2008 - and this increase has been almost exclusively (natural increase is no more than a quarter of a million) the result of huge inward migration.



Basically the future of all these migrants is now deeply uncertain. I would even say that losing the migrants constitutes the most important of all the downside risks to the Spanish economic crisis for the impact it will have on urban rents and mortgage delinquency in the short term (since many of the migrants have bought flats), and for the consequences for Spain's housing market and pensions system in the mid term. Evidently, since most of the migrants are economic migrants the inward flow must surely be about to dry up (since there are few if any jobs for them) and thus our attention should be focused on the need to hold onto those we already have.

Is There A Rescue Plan Available?

Basically, and on the basis of all the above, I would like to now put forward a five point "rescue" plan for the Spanish economy. It would look something like this:

1/ Set up a national land agency, to buy up land and to irrevocably convert it to other uses (agriculture wouldn't be a bad bet where possible given present food prices). This to include the proviso that such land could never again be zoned.
2/ Buy out and close down the bankrupt builders as part of a general restructuring programme such as the one which was developed for the shipyards and the mines.
3/ Buy up and burn immediately ALL outstanding cedulas hipotecarias. Well, I'm exaggerating here, but something very decisive needs to be done to take these things out of circulation in the longer term, or we will never ease Spain out from under this.
4/ Establish a programme to help immigrants in difficult circumstances, and offer training etc to prepare for the future. Abasic focus of policy needs to be on trying to persuade migrants to stay.
5/ Restructure all existing mortgage contracts - which will involve every one paying more - in order to put mortgage financing in Spain back on a sound footing. This will obviously require legislative intervention, and will equally obviously involve breaking the direct tie with one year euribor. It has been following euribor up and down which has gotten the Spanish mortgage market into this mess in the first place.

OK, I warned you. I said none of this was going to be popular. And none of these propsals should be consider as carved in stone. Better ones could well, I am sure, be put forward, but in the absence of anything credible in the way of alternatives I am putting them forward now. As I said at the start, there is no point in agreeing to have your own throat slit just to see people you don't like have their's slit first.

It is very, very important that some form of "corta fuegos" (fire break) is put in place, and put in place now, otherwise the whole of Spain could very easily burn down in just the same way the Liceu opera house did here in Barcelona, simply because some chump decided to do on-stage soldering repairs with the safety curtain up! Risk sir, there's no risk here. It's all as safe as houses.