Chicago, IL – November 24, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Halliburton Company (HAL), Schlumberger Limited (SLB), Smith International Inc. (SII), National-Oilwell Varco (NOV) and Weatherford International Ltd. (WFT).

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Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:

U.S. Rig Count Hits 8-Month High

Producers had scaled back oil and gas drilling operations over the past several months in the midst of falling commodity prices and tighter access to credit. However, during recent weeks, there have been signs that the companies were beginning to bring rigs back on line (especially oil rigs) amid signs of economic stabilization that could drive up energy demand. This pushed the nationwide rig count above 1,100 working units for the week ended Nov. 13, the first time since March.

The overall picture, though, remains weak, particularly for natural gas, whose inventories have recently hit a new record high of 3.83 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) and is threatening to test the maximum capacity of 3.89 Tcf. The supply picture is expected to reverse in the coming months as producers bet on colder weather and the lagging effect of the sharp drop in domestic drilling activity takes hold.

Until then, we believe that natural gas woes (especially in North America) will continue to haunt energy service firms like Halliburton Company (HAL), Schlumberger Limited (SLB), Smith International Inc. (SII), National-Oilwell Varco (NOV) and Weatherford International Ltd. (WFT). These oilfield service names have seen their revenues and earnings plunge in the last few quarters on the back of lower volumes and a very competitive pricing environment. We have Neutral recommendations on all the above-mentioned companies.

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Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

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REFICAR has chosen CB&I to be the single contractor to engineer, procure, and construct this important project, which is key to enhancing Ecopetrol's position as a leading producer for the entire region. Refinería de Cartagena S.A. is owned by Ecopetrol, Colombia's national oil company.

CB&I will provide project management and the engineering, procurement services, fabrication and construction for the new refinery, including the following major components: Crude and Vacuum Distillation, Fluid Catalytic Cracker Naphtha Hydrotreater, Diesel Hydrotreater, Hydrocracker, Hydrogen Plant, Sulfur Plant, Delayed Coker, HF Alkylation, C4 Isomerization, Power Generation and Offsites and Utilities.

In October, the company was awarded a contract in excess of US$100 million by UGI LNG, Inc. to engineer, procure and construct the expansion of the Temple LNG peak shaving facility near Reading, Pennsylvania. CB&I's work scope includes the addition of a new 50,000 cubic meter liquefied natural gas storage tank and related processing facilities designed to provide 150 million cubic feet of natural gas per day during peak demand periods. The Temple LNG expansion will connect directly into the Texas Eastern pipeline to provide gas supplies for the Mid-Atlantic and northeast markets.

Chicago Bridge & Iron Company N.V. provides engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) solutions, as well as process technologies for the energy infrastructure projects. It primarily focuses on projects related to oil and gas companies. CB&I operates approximately 80 locations around the world. The company was founded in 1889 and is based in The Hague, the Netherlands . Its major competitor is Matrix Service Co. (MTRX).

Chicago, IL – November 20, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Toyota Motors (TM), Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR), ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM), Chevron Corp. (CVX) and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A).

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Here are highlights from Thursday’s Analyst Blog:

Toyota’s 1st Sales Gain in 15 Months

Toyota Motors (TM) has posted its first year-over-year monthly sales gain across the globe in 15 months during October. The company’s sales rose 4% to more than 630,000 vehicles. In the U.S., the company’s sales fell 3.5%.

However, in the domestic market Toyota’s sales grew 15% helped by tax breaks for purchases of environment-friendly cars. In China, the company saw a staggering rise of 40% in sales. Toyota returned to profitability in the second quarter of fiscal 2010 ended Sep 30, 2009, after reporting losses since the third quarter of fiscal 2009.

The company posted a profit of ¥21.8 billion ($232 million) or ¥6.96 per share (7 cents) per share. This profit was attributed to government incentive programs across the world – such as the U.S. “Cash for Clunkers"– that helped the company recoup its market share. Consolidated revenue in the quarter dipped 24% to ¥4.54 trillion ($48 billion).

Automotive revenue fell 24% to ¥4.11 trillion ($44 billion) while Financial Services revenue shrank 17% to ¥307 billion ($4 billion). This was on the back of a decline in vehicle sales in each region as well as a negative impact from the appreciation of yen. Sales volume declined 16% to 1.64 million units due to a decrease in volume in all the regions except North America.

Petrobras Profit Exceeds Ests

Brazilian energy giant Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR), or Petrobras S.A. announced encouraging third quarter results, helped by strong performance from the Supply segment. Earnings per ADR came in at R$1.66 (96 cents), comfortably beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 80 cents. However, on a year-over-year basis, Petrobras’ earnings per ADR was down approximately 28.7%, hurt by lower prices of oil and natural gas. Still, they were better than the high double-digit earnings decline suffered by other majors such as ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM), Chevron Corp. (CVX), and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A).

Total oil and gas production during the third quarter of 2009 reached 2,534 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, from 2,524 million in the previous quarter and 2,437 million in the same period of 2008. Compared to the third quarter of 2008, Brazilian oil and natural gas liquids production increased 4.8%, while international production was up 24.6%. However, Brazilian natural gas volumes were down 3.3% from the year-ago period, while international output during the quarter was down 6.0% year over year.

During the third quarter of 2009, the average sales price of oil in Brazil decreased 36.4% from the year-earlier period to $64 per barrel. Average sales price of international oil was down 16.9% year-over-year, reaching $57.16 per barrel. Regarding natural gas, average international sales price decreased 21.5% from the third quarter of 2008, while domestic price was down 61.5%.

Refining costs per barrel in Brazil was down 2.6% to $3.37 and internationally, it fell 45.2% to $3.51. Lifting cost per barrel moved down 24.5% in Brazil to $22.86, while overseas costs rose 9.4% to $5.6. Petrobras exported an average of 724,000 barrels of oil per day, 10.2% higher compared to the same period last year.

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Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

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About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

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United States Commodity Funds' new ETF, the U.S. 12-Month Natural Gas Fund (NYSEArca: UNL), began trading yesterday, offering investors another easy access point to the natural gas market. But let's hope it sees smoother sailing than its controversial cousin, the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (NYSEArca: UNG).

Not only have regulators vociferously blamed UNG for distorting the commodity markets earlier this year, the fund has also performed dismally to date, dropping a whopping 61.24 percent since the beginning of the year. And it's not because investors have lost their taste for the fund: Last month, UNG still saw brisk inflows of $308 million, even as its net assets dropped $263 million.

Record-low natural gas prices have played their part in slashing UNG's returns, of course, but the big anvil weighing the fund down is the market's nasty case of contango. For the better part of the year, the front-month NYMEX natural gas futures contract has stayed cheaper than those with later delivery dates. And since UNG buys only the front-month contract, selling it near its expiration date to purchase the next-nearest month's contract, the fund has been stuck in a wicked cycle of "sell low, buy high" for months now.

UNL, on the other hand, may be able to avoid some (but not all) of the same pricing sting. Instead of focusing solely on the front-month contract, UNL purchases an equally weighted basket of futures contracts with delivery dates in each of the next 12 months. Two weeks from rollover time, the fund sells the front-month contract and buys the one 12 months out, essentially pushing the basket forward in time.

Given that currently UNG must absorb losses across 100 percent of its contracts during rollover, while UNL only experiences losses in 1/12^th of its portfolio, this methodology should protect the latter somewhat from contango's vicious sting. But it can't make UNL entirely immune, considering the furthest-out contracts are still priced substantially above the front-month contract: Yesterday, the December 2009 contract closed at $4.254, while the December 2010 contract closed 45.7 percent higher, at $6.199.

Also consider that at 0.75 percent, UNL's expense ratio is a mite bigger than UNG's (0.60 percent), so when the contango lessens, any cost savings from choosing the former over the latter would naturally erode. And should the natural gas market flip to backwardation, UNL's staggered buying strategy would actually put it at a disadvantage to UNG.

But backwardation's not likely to happen in natural gas—at least, not anytime soon. To see inversion occur, we'd need to start seeing shortages in the physical commodity, yet natural gas stocks just hit an all-time high. In fact, the International Energy Agency recently predicted that even if demand rebounds, due to an extra-cold winter and economic recovery, we'll still see a natural gas surplus that will depress prices until 2015.

Will UNL ultimately outperform UNG until then? Obviously only time will tell, but we may be able to divine some clues from USCF's other 12-Month Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USL) and its UNG-analogous partner, the U.S. Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO). Despite oil's price recovery, the commodity has also experienced heavy contango recently, and year-to-date, USL is up 38.84 percent, while USO is only up 22.87 percent.

Still, while I'm always happy to have more tools in the box, when it comes to natural gas, I'm not yet sure whether a flathead or a Phillips screwdriver would be better.

Chicago, IL – November 19, 2009 – Zacks.com releases the latest Zacks Industry Rank. Stocks featured in this week’s analysis include B.P. Prudhoe Bay Trust (BPT), San Juan Basin (SJT), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Petrobras (PBR).

Zacks Industry Rank Analysis is written by Dirk Van Dijk, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist for Zacks.com.

This week: Some Improvements in Energy

A good example of an industry that is showing both a very good overall rank and substantial improvement is Oil Royalty Trusts, which with a industry rank of 2.00 is tied for 4th place with several other industries. What sets it apart is that it improved 21 spots in its ranking as the average ranking of its components, up from 2.43 last week. Every one of the seven firms in the industry has a Zacks Rank of 2.

These are great vehicles for income-oriented investors, as they simply represent big pools of oil or natural gas in the ground. As the oil is produced, the proceeds are paid out in the form of dividends. It also means that the dividends are very variable with the price of oil.

The problem with them is that eventually the oil in the ground will run out, so some of that dividend is really a return of capital, not a return on capital. Thus if you are thinking about investing in them, look at how long those reserves will last, as well as the current income you are getting from them.

On the plus side, the tax code recognizes this, so a portion of the dividend is sheltered from the IRS. Unlike a regular exploration and production oil firm, there is no risk of a dry hole, nor are they exposed to changes in the price of drilling. If you think that the price of oil is headed higher, they are very attractive investments, especially if you want current income. Two of the larger names in the area that are worth considering are B.P. Prudhoe Bay Trust (BPT) and San Juan Basin (SJT).

A good example of a big important industry that is still distinctly mediocre in terms of its absolute standing is the Integrated Oil Industry, the home of some of the world’s largest firms like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Petrobras (PBR). It currently has an average rank of 2.95, which puts it in 102nd place out of 206 industries ranked. That, however, is a substantial improvement from the 3.16 average last week, and was enough to lift it by 49 spots.

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About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3:1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit From the Pros by going to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5610.

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

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Chicago, IL – November 19, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Ford (F), CarMax (KMX), AutoNation (AN), Apartment Investors (AIV) and Equity Residential (EQR).

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Here are highlights from Wednesday’s Analyst Blog:

CPI Up on Cars, Energy

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October rose by 0.3%, a little bit hotter than the 0.2% that was expected. If one strips out volatile food and energy prices to get the core consumer price index, prices were up 0.2%, also one tick higher than the 0.1% expected.

A rise in energy prices was not unexpected. Heck, one only has to see what the price of crude oil and natural gas have done over the last month or so. For the month, the price of energy rose 1.5% overall. The rise was sharpest among energy commodities, like gasoline and heating oil, which rose by 1.9%. Energy services, like electricity rose a more moderate -- but still steep -- 0.9%.

The rise in core consumer prices was a bit more of a surprise. However, the rising prices were very narrow, with almost all of the increases due to higher prices for cars and trucks, both new and used. For the month, the prices of new cars were up 1.6% while the prices for used cars jumped by 3.4%. That is very good news for Ford (F) as well as indirectly for the U.S. taxpayer, since we are now major stockholders at both General Motors and Chrysler.

The increase for used cars is also beneficial for the car dealers like CarMax (KMX) and AutoNation (AN). The Cash for Clunkers program continues to reverberate through the economy, even though it ended over two months ago. Every car that was turned in under the program was destroyed (at least the engine was, other parts could be stripped and reused). This reduction in supply helped support prices of the remaining used cars. This is the third month in a row of sharply higher prices for used cars, coming on top of a 1.6% increase in September and a 1.9% increase in August. I suspect that this effect is likely to wear off in the near future.

On a year-over-year basis, the overall consumer price index is down 0.2%, while the core consumer price index is up 1.7%, both of which are historically very low. The huge decline in energy prices happened a year ago and is in the process of rolling off. Thus look for the headline consumer price index to start to outpace the core consumer price index in the months to come on a year-over-year basis.

The divergence could become very large. The reason is that a very large part of the index is for Shelter, and the biggest part of that is rent -- both the normal rent that is paid by people who do not own their own houses, and "owners equivalent rent" (OER) or what it would cost you to rent an identical house next door to where you are living now. OER is how the government measures housing prices for inflation; what happens to the actual price of houses is totally irrelevant when it comes to measuring inflation. Thus, measured inflation was very much under control, even as the price of houses were soaring during the housing bubble, and the CPI did not decline as the bubble was bursting.

Together, regular rent paid to landlords and OER make up over 30% of the total consumer price index, and almost 40% of the core consumer price index. The overall price of shelter was unchanged in October, the second month in a row it was unchanged. Regular rent fell by 0.1%, over the last three months it is down at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.7%, and it is unchanged over the last six months.

Since most people own rather than rent where they live, OER has a much higher weight in the index (24.4% of the total index vs. 6.0%). It was unchanged on the month, is off by 0.3% over the last three months and up by just 0.2% over the last six months. However, if the reports from the big housing-oriented REIT’s like Apartment Investors (AIV) and Equity Residential (EQR) are to be believed, then the decline in regular rents is significantly understated.

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About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

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Chicago, IL – November 19, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: D.R. Horton (DHI), Pulte (PHM), Owens Corning (OC), Masco (MAS) and EnCana Corporation (ECA).

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Here are highlights from Wednesday’s Analyst Blog:

Housing Starts, Permits Plunge

Housing prices are still under pressure, despite unprecedented steps by the Federal government and the Federal Reserve to prop up the price of that asset class. Artificial government support is not as durable a way to prop up prices as a better balance between supply and demand would be.

Well, if prices are going down, the last thing you want to see is more new supply on the market. Thus, in the long term, the decline in housing starts is a good thing. If we stop building houses for long enough, then population growth will start to bring the vacancy rate down. On the other hand, as Lord Keynes famously said, “In the long run we are all dead."

One thing is abundantly clear: this report was not good news for the homebuilders like D.R. Horton (DHI) and Pulte (PHM), nor was it encouraging to suppliers to the industry like Owens Corning (OC) or Masco (MAS). It is also bad news for millions of construction workers who are now unemployed.

It is also yet another reason for the Fed to keep interest rates down very low for a very long time. The only reason for the Fed to consider increasing the Fed funds rate would be if we were going to have a very sharp V shaped recovery. With Housing Starts and Permits falling again, that just simply is not going to happen.

EnCana Misses, Profit Tumbles

EnCana Corporation (ECA) – a major Canadian oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) company – reported weak third quarter results, hit by lower prices and volumes. Operating earnings per share, excluding hedging and foreign exchange effects, came in at $1.03. This fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.11 and way behind the year-ago profit of $1.92.

Revenues were down 64.2% year over year to $3.9 billion. During the quarter, total production was down 7.0% to 4,387 million cubic feet equivalent per day (MMcfe/d), of which 81% was natural gas. Natural gas production decreased roughly 9.3% year-over-year to 3,551 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d), while oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) production was up 3.7% to 139 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d).

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About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

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Chicago, IL – November 16, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: JC Penney Company Inc. (JCP), Toyota (TM), Honda (HMC), EnCana (ECA) and Chesapeake (CHK).

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Here are highlights from Friday’s Analyst Blog:

JC Penney Beats on Low Earnings

JC Penney Company Inc. (JCP), a leading retailer of apparel and footwear, accessories, fashion jewelry, beauty products and home furnishings, recently reported third-quarter 2009 results.

The quarterly earnings of 11 cents a share tumbled 80% from 55 cents posted in the prior-year quarter, weighed down by qualified pension plan expense. Earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny.

The retailer, however, mentioned that earnings outshined the company’s initial guidance range of a loss of 5 cents to profit of 5 cents a share on the heels of effective inventory management and lowered unprofitable discounting. Consequently, gross profit rose 1.9% year-on-year to $1,696 million.

On stronger-than-expected results, JC Penney raised its fiscal year 2009 earnings outlook. Management now expects earnings in the range of 93 cents to $1.08 per share, as against 75 cents to 90 cents previously anticipated. For the fourth-quarter 2009, earnings are expected between 70 cents and 85 cents a share.

Imports Surge in September

So what was driving the increase in the deficit? Part of it was that we imported more cars from the Toyotas (TM) and Hondas (HMC) of the world as dealers restocked after inventories were depleted due to Cash for Clunkers. However, for the month, the biggest increase in our imports was Industrial Supplies and Materials -- a category that includes oil. Oil is a big part of the reason why our trade deficit has been so intractable, and the decline in the price of oil from a year ago is a big part of the reason that we have seen an improvement in the deficit over the last year.

We started making progress on reducing our non-oil deficit towards the end of 2005, and until the last few months, have continued to make steady progress. However, as the price of oil rose, that progress was offset by an ever increasing oil bill.

The net result was that from mid-2005 through the summer of 2008, our trade deficit remained stable at a horrendous level of roughly $60 billion a month. As a percentage of GDP, it exceeded 5.0% in every quarter from the second quarter of 2004 through the second quarter of 2008, and was extremely close to that level through the third quarter of 2008. It was not until oil prices collapsed in the fall of 2008 (along with everything else) that we saw a dramatic improvement in the trade deficit. Now with oil prices on the rebound, the deficit is deteriorating rapidly again.

There are really only two solutions to solving the chronic deficit problem. The first is that the dollar falls, thus making imports more expensive to U.S. consumers and businesses, and our exports much cheaper to foreign consumers and businesses. Yes, a weak dollar would not be fun next time you decide to vacation in Paris. It also would have the potential to be inflationary. However, right now, there are big deflationary pressures elsewhere in the economy (for example, housing prices and rents), so a little bit of inflation pressure coming from higher import prices is not a huge worry.

Creating export-led jobs is much more important right now. That would help increase Investment’s share of the economy, and decrease the Consumer’s share. Over time it is vitally important that we do this.

One big problem, though, as far as the weak dollar is concerned in curing this cancer -- it is not weak against every other currency. Most importantly, it has been absolutely stable against the Yuan, and our deficit with China was $22.1 billion in September, up from $20.1 billion in August.

As a percentage of the total, then, it was 60.5% in September -- down from 65.6% in August, but still a huge part of the problem. It is also an issue that a weak dollar does not address (unless China stops pegging to the dollar and moves to say pegging it to a basket of major currencies, I doubt they will go to a full free-float of the Yuan).

The second solution is that we get serious about creating domestic sources of energy to offset the need for us to import so much oil. Since we have already extracted most of our original endowment of oil, "drill baby drill" is looking less and less like the right answer.

However, we have lots and lots of natural gas (NG), thanks to the new Shale plays. Our ability to switch from oil to gas immediately is limited. Butiven the cost differential on a BTU basis right now, there is every incentive in the world already for businesses to make the switch if they can. Strictly on the basis of the amount of energy in them, a barrel of oil should be worth 6x as much as an MCF of natural gas.

Right now, oil is going for $75.86 a barrel while NG is going for $4.42, so if a business has the ability, they could be buying the equivalent of a barrel of oil for just $26.52. That is a big incentive to switch. Over the medium-to-long term, it is easier to make that change. Only relatively minor modifications are needed to switch, say, vehicles to natural gas -- it's not like it is some sort of cutting-edge technology.

However, it is not free, and we do not have the nationwide refilling infrastructure to do so. If this differential persists, I would expect more and more fleet-type vehicles (i.e. city buses and delivery trucks) to switch over. This would obviously be a good thing for the big producers of natural gas like EnCana (ECA) and Chesapeake (CHK).

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Production during the quarter, before royalties, averaged 214 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOE/d), or 184 MBOE/d net of royalties, comprising 83% crude oil and 15% natural gas. Production before royalties was down 14% year over year, mainly due to turnarounds and
maintenance activities at a number of fields. On a net-of-royalty basis, production was down slightly by 12% year over year to 184 MBOE/d.

While the quarter’s productions were hampered by the scheduled turnarounds on a number of the company’s fields, current production (275 MBOE/d) is increasing with the ramp-up of production at Ettrick, Longhorn and Long Lake. Management hinted that the fourth quarter production will be higher than the reported quarter level.

Nexen’s average oil price realization during the quarter was C$72.95 ($66.4) per barrel, down approximately 37% year over year but up approximately 6.8% sequentially. Natural gas average price realization during the quarter was C$3.04 ($2.76) per Mcf, down 19% sequentially and
6.5% year over year.

Nexen spent C$671 million ($611 million) on capital programs during the quarter. At the end of the quarter, the company had C$2.1 billion ($1.91) in cash and C$7.4 billion ($6.74 billion) in long-term debt, with a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 50.1%.

Nexen’s diversified portfolio of E&P assets includes high-impact exploration prospects in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, offshore West Africa and the North Sea, stable operations in Yemen and Canada and an attractive unconventional resource base in Canada. This provides the company with a multi-year inventory of development projects and a positive long-term production-growth profile. We, however, believe that this is already discounted in the current valuation.

Additionally, we are also concerned about the downside risks such as execution risk and cost inflation. Rising costs remain a major concern, as cost increases are observed on all fronts. In the first nine months of 2009, costs increased more than 10%, a trend that is not expected to
subside in the near term. We are unchanged with our Neutral rating.

Chicago, IL – November 9, 2009 – Zacks Equity Research highlights Inspire Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ISPH) as the Bull of the Day and Sears Holdings (SHLD) the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Moody's Corp.(MCO), CBS Corporation (CBS) and Forest Oil Corporation (FST).

Full analysis of all these stocks is available at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5506

Here is a synopsis of all five stocks:

Bull of the Day:

Inspire Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ISPH) is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of treatments for respiratory and ophthalmologic disorders.

Currently, the company has three products on the market and a robust pipeline. We see strong top line growth from 2009 and beyond. Inspire just reported positive phase III data of Denufosol for CF. The company has a strong collaborative alliance with Allergan Pharmaceuticals for key products that treat dry eyes and allergic conjunctivitis.

Current price is attractive. We maintain our Outperform rating on shares of Inspire with a price target of $7.00.

Bear of the Day:

Sears Holdings' (SHLD) vulnerability to the continued economic downturn is adversely affecting its top-line growth. The company recorded an 8.6% decline in same-store sales and closed 28 non-performing stores during the fiscal 2009 second quarter amid a slump in housing and sluggish apparel sales.

Moreover, intense competition from giant discounters, mass merchants and regional stores, coupled with the seasonality of business and exposure to foreign currency fluctuations, severely undermine the company's future growth prospects and sustainability.

Consequently, we have changed the recommendation for the company from Neutral to Underperform as we anticipate it to perform well below the broader market.

Latest Posts on the Zacks Analyst Blog:

Raising Moody's Estimates

We are raising our estimates for Moody's Corp.(MCO) for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 and full year of fiscal 2010 due to continued resurgence in the company's results. Moody's is an industry leader in the credit rating industry and enjoys a high organic growth rate, along with strong profit margins and cash flows.

Results for the first nine months of 2009, although below year-ago level were better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, reflecting an improvement in credit markets and growth in Moody's Analytics business.

CBS Tops Zacks Estimate

CBS Corporation (CBS) recently reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2009 results. The quarterly earnings of 25 cents a share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 22 cents, but fell 35.9% from 39 cents posted in the prior-year quarter.

On a reported basis, including one-time items, quarterly earnings of 30 cents a share improved from quarterly loss of $18.58 delivered in the year-ago quarter.

Forest Misses on Lower Sales

Forest Oil Corporation (FST) reported its third-quarter 2009 earnings of 48 cents per share, compared with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 53 cents and a year-ago profit of $1.26. Before adjusting one-time items, earnings were $1.53 per share. The results came in below expectations mainly due to lower sales volumes.

Sales volumes for the quarter came in at 476 MMcfe/d (77% natural gas), down 9% from 520 MMcfe/d in the corresponding 2008 period. The decrease in production was due to deferred and divested volumes.

Get the full analysis of all these stocks by going to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5507.

About the Bull and Bear of the Day

Every day, the analysts at Zacks Equity Research select two stocks that are likely to outperform (Bull) or underperform (Bear) the markets over the next 3-6 months.

About the Analyst Blog

Updated throughout every trading day, the Analyst Blog provides analysis from Zacks Equity Research about the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets.

About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous analyst coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

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About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5509.

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Chicago, IL – November 9, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: EOG Resources Inc. (EOG), Grupo Televisa S.A. (TV), OGE Energy Corp. (OGE), Edison International (EIX) and Dynegy Inc. (DYN).

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Here are highlights from Friday’s Analyst Blog:

EOG Resources Remains Neutral

EOG Resources Inc. (EOG) reported third-quarter earnings of 81 cents per share, compared with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 65 cents and a year-ago profit of $2.34. Before adjusting one-time items, earnings were 2 cents per share. Despite an increase in production volumes, earnings were down from the year-earlier level due primarily to significantly lower commodity price realizations.

Total volumes during the quarter increased approximately 4% year-over-year to 195.9 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe), or 2,129 million cubic feet equivalent per day (MMcfe/d), 76% of which was natural gas and 24% liquids. Natural gas volumes decreased 3% year-over-year, led by an approximately 6% decrease in the U.S. volumes to 1,128 MMcf/d, and more than 2% decrease in Canadian volumes to 219 MMcf/d.

Grupo Televisa Reports Mixed Results

Grupo Televisa S.A. (TV), the largest media company in Mexico, reported mixed financial results for the third quarter 2009. Quarterly consolidated net revenue of $970 million was an improvement of 5.5% over the prior-year quarter. However, this was below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $983 million.

The year-over-year increase in the top-line was mainly attributable to healthy revenue growth in Sky, Cable & Telecom, Programming Exports, Pay television Networks, and Other Business segments, partially offset by a fall in revenue in Publishing and Television Broadcasting segments.

OGE Energy Tops Expectations

OGE Energy Corp. (OGE) reported third quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $1.40, topping the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate of $1.34. However, EPS in the reported quarter came a dime short, compared to the year-ago EPS of $1.50.

Earnings were boosted in the reported quarter by strong results at Oklahoma Gas and Electric Company (OG&E), offset by cooler weather in the OG&E service territory, lower commodity prices in the Enogex midstream pipeline business and an increase in the number of shares outstanding.

Edison Pushes Past Estimate

Edison International’s (EIX) adjusted EPS of $1.09 in the third quarter of fiscal 2009 pushed past the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.05 by 4 cents. However, adjusted EPS for the quarter fell short of the year-ago $1.46 EPS.

On a GAAP basis, the company reported quarterly EPS of $1.23, compared to $1.33 in the year-ago quarter. The discrepancy between GAAP and adjusted EPS were due to non-cash accounting benefit from the final regulatory approval to transfer its Mountainview power plant to utility rate base.

Dynegy Sunk on Charges

Dynegy Inc. (DYN) has reported a net loss of $212 million, or 25 cents per share in the third quarter 2009, compared to a net income of $605 million, or 72 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. The net loss in the reported quarter was primarily driven by asset impairment charges and mark-to-market losses. The company recorded mark-to-market losses of $128 million ($78 million after tax), compared to mark-to-market gains of $889 million ($542 million after tax) in the year-ago quarter.

In the reported quarter, however, adjusted earnings rose to $388 million, compared to $269 million in the year-ago quarter. The growth was primarily driven by the sale and assignment of a multi-year power sales contract, higher capacity and tolling revenues and higher realized energy prices in the Midwest.

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Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

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About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

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Sales volumes for the quarter came in at 476 MMcfe/d (77% natural gas), down 9% from 520 MMcfe/d in the corresponding 2008 period. The decrease in production was due to deferred and divested volumes.

During the quarter, production expenses decreased approximately 24% year-over-year to $1.17 per Mcfe, mainly on the back of a fall in production. Unit general and administrative expenses for the quarter was essentially flat year-over-year to 28 cents per Mcfe, while depreciation and depletion expenses for the quarter decreased 48% year-over-year to $1.49 per Mcfe due mainly to a non-cash ceiling test write-down of oil and gas properties.

Forest invested $76.9 million during the quarter in exploration and development activities. At the end of the quarter, the company had $5.1 million in cash and net long-term debt of approximately $2.48 billion (debt-to-capitalization ratio of 71.1%).

The company revised downward its net sales volume guidance to reflect the effects of asset sales and pipeline shut-ins. Total net sales volume for 2009 will be affected by 3 Bcfe of net sales. As a result of ongoing cost cutting initiatives, the company also reduced its previous production expense guidance by 8% and G&A expense by 17%.

Despite the improving commodity-price environment, we remain concerned about the company's debt-heavy balance sheet as well as its weak production and reserve growth profile. Forest recently revised downward towards its net sales volume for 2009, citing assets sales and pipeline/infrastructure shut-ins. As such, we see limited upside from current levels and prefer other better positioned names in this space.

Total volumes during the quarter increased approximately 4% year-over-year to 195.9 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe), or 2,129 million cubic feet equivalent per day (MMcfe/d), 76% of which was natural gas and 24% liquids. Natural gas volumes decreased 3% year-over-year, led by an approximately 6% decrease in the U.S. volumes to 1,128 MMcf/d, and more than 2% decrease in Canadian volumes to 219 MMcf/d.

Crude oil and condensate production during the quarter was 59.5 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/d), up nearly 23% from the year-ago level. This was primarily driven by a 24% growth in domestic volumes, reflecting increased production in North Dakota. Natural gas liquids (NGL) volumes increased almost 69% from the year-ago quarter to 24.1 MBbl/d.

Average realized natural gas prices decreased roughly 63% year-over-year to $3.01 per Mcf. Prices decreased across all the geographical segments, with domestic realizations down nearly 64% year-over-year to $3.27 per Mcf. Average realized prices for crude oil and condensates decreased approximately 45% year-over-year to $60.65 per barrel.

Prices decreased across all the geographical segments, with domestic realizations down nearly 45% year-over-year to $60.79 per barrel. Quarterly NGL prices were $31.14 per barrel, down approximately 55% year-over-year.

At the end of the quarter, EOG had cash and cash equivalents of $608.5 million and long-term debt of $2.8 billion, representing a net debt-to-capitalization ratio of approximately 22.7%. During the quarter, EOG generated approximately $819.3 million ($3.24 per share) in discretionary cash flow (DCF), compared to a DCF of $1.17 billion ($4.66 per share) in the year-ago quarter.

The company has set a full-year target of $3.1 billion (excluding acquisitions) for exploration and development activities. Additionally, the company has allocated $300 million for natural gas gathering, processing and other expenditures.

With the performance of its North American plays, EOG has increased its 2009 total production growth target from 5.5% to 6%. Total liquids growth target was also increased from 25% to 27%. For 2010, the company has set a total organic production growth target of 13% that includes total liquids production growth of 50%.

EOG has an industry leading organic production-growth profile, strong inventory of drilling opportunities, attractive cost and return metrics and impressive long-term growth prospects. We see EOG as a core holding in the large-cap E&P space. However, its natural gas weighted assets currently is a concern. We recommend a Neutral rating for the stock.

Chicago, IL – November 6, 2009 – Zacks.com releases the latest Zacks Industry Rank. Stocks featured in this week’s analysis include B.P. Prudhoe Bay (BPT), Sabine Royalty Trust (SBR), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Hershey (HSY) and Del Monte (DLM).

Zacks Industry Rank Analysis is written by Dirk Van Dijk, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist for Zacks.com.
 
This week: Out-of-Step Industries

Sometimes the best investments come from a small group that seems to be bucking the trend of the much larger group that they are a part of. That appears to be the case for the Oil Royalty Trust group. There are eight names in this group, all of which sport Zacks #2 rankings. That puts them in a tie for 4th place among all industries tracked. Meanwhile, the Energy sector is well down the list overall sector rank list.

With royalty trusts, you get high dividends that will vary with the price of oil or natural gas. They don’t do a lot of reinvestment, just pump the oil or gas out of the ground, sell it and pass the proceeds along to the owners. Of course, eventually the wells run dry and with them, so does the stream of income. But they are a very direct play on the price of oil and gas, and you avoid the risk of dry holes.

They are among the best income-generating investments out there, though some of that income is really a return of principal as the wells run dry. Then again, the tax code recognizes that as well.

A few of the names in the group include B.P. Prudhoe Bay (BPT) and Sabine Royalty Trust (SBR), which might be good bets for people looking for high current income and who think that oil prices are likely to head higher as the dollar gets weaker.

At the other end of the spectrum, food stocks are generally very well regarded right now by the Zacks Rank, a big part of the reason that the Consumer Staples sector trails only the very small and analytically incoherent Conglomerates sector. However, there is one glaring exception to this otherwise tasty group, the Meat Processors. With an average rank of 3.67, the industry ranks 199 out of 206 industries tracked. Investors would be well served by looking elsewhere in the food industry right now. Some of the higher ranked alternatives in the food area would include Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Hershey (HSY) and Del Monte (DLM).
 
Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter offers continuous coverage of the industries and the stocks poised to outperform the market. Subscribe to this free newsletter today by visiting http://at.zacks.com/?id=5611.

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3:1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros.  In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit From the Pros by going to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5610.

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Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities (including a broker-dealer and an investment adviser), which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates.

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

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Chicago, IL – November 6, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the latest Industry Outlook. Today, Zacks Equity Research discusses the Oil & Gas sector, including CNOOC Ltd. (CEO), China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation, or Sinopec (SNP), Cameron International (CAM), Nabors (NBR) and Patterson-UTI (PTEN).

The strengthening oil price environment should benefit producers, particularly those international players having attractive growth opportunities in their home markets. Two such standout names are China’s CNOOC Ltd. (CEO) and China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation, or Sinopec (SNP), both of which remain well-placed to benefit from the country’s growing appetite for energy.

CNOOC enjoys a monopoly on exploration activities in China’s very prospective offshore region in addition to having a growing presence in the country’s natural gas and LNG infrastructure. On the other hand, Sinopec is the second largest crude oil and natural gas producer, and the largest refiner and marketer of refined petroleum products in China. Sinopec’s leverage to the lucrative Chinese market and the recent $7.5 billion Addax acquisition is expected to help sustain its growth momentum.

Within the oilfield services group, we prefer to own companies such as Cameron International (CAM), that derives about two-thirds of its revenue from outside North America, thereby playing an offsetting role to the relatively soft U.S. drilling scene. Cameron recently posted better-than-expected third quarter results and raised its 2009 forecast, as a revival in energy prices led to improved drilling activities.

WEAKNESSES

We continue to feel strongly that industry players in the servicing and drilling ends of the business with substantial natural gas-focused and North America-centric operations should be avoided. A major sub-sector that fits that description is the onshore drillers. While we currently don't have any Underperform rated stocks in this group, we remain skeptical of land drillers like Nabors (NBR) and Patterson-UTI (PTEN), given the extent of excess capacity in the sector that is expected to weigh on dayrates and margins well into next year.

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About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5511.

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Contact:
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312-265-9380
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Chicago, IL – October 30, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Moody’s (MCO), Microsoft (MSFT), Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE) and ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM).

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5513

Here are highlights from Thursday’s AnalystBlog:

GDP Notes – In Depth

With massive amounts of space sitting idle in offices and empty strip malls littering the landscape, look for new investment in commercial real estate to continue to decline in coming quarters. Moody’s (MCO) has estimated that the value of commercial real estate has plunged by 41% since the peak a little over a year ago, and that is hardly an inducement to build more. If a business needs the space, it's far cheaper to just buy some that already exists.

Spending on Equipment and Software (E&S), on the other hand, is starting to come back, if only feebly -- rising 1.1% after a 4.9% decline in the 2Q and a 36.4% plunge in the 1Q. Look for some stability in this line going forward as the new Microsoft (MSFT) operating system will probably generate a new PC cycle, but with capacity utilization still around 70% I would not expect a boom in orders for new factory equipment.

The real star of Fixed investment, though, came on the residential side, which rose 23.4%. This is the first increase in almost four years, and follows declines of 23.3% in the 2Q and 38.2% in the 1Q. The long string of declines had brought residential investment to a record low share of GDP. The extraordinary support of the housing sector by the government, including the first-time buyer tax credit -- the Fed buying up $1.25 Trillion of Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE)-backed paper to artificially suppress mortgage rates, and the FHA acting like the old New Century Financial or Washington Mutual on their worst days -- have played a big role in the turnaround. I seriously question the sustainability of it after the support is removed, and I don’t think the support can continue indefinitely.

Exxon Misses, Production Up

ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM) reported third quarter 2009 earnings of 98 cents per share, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.04 and year-earlier earnings of $2.58.

Though the earnings came in below expectations, the company maintained its quarterly dividend of 42 cents per share and repurchased $4 billion worth of XOM common stock. With a sound cash position, solid credit profile and diversity of its asset base, both in terms of business mix as well as geographical footprint, Exxon remains better positioned than any of its peers.

The steep fall in oil prices and weak product margins caused a 65% drop in earnings from the year-earlier quarter to $4.7 billion. The production of oil and natural gas averaged 3.69 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, up approximately 3% year over year. When adjusted for the impact of entitlement volumes and OPEC quota restrictions, production was up about 5%. Its refinery throughput averaged at 5.35 million barrels per day, flat from the year-earlier level.

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Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

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About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

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In a previous set of papers, Oli Coibion, Michael LeBlanc and I examined the predictive power of energy futures post and paper.

In a new paper, Oli Coibion and I update our results regarding energy futures, and metal and agricultural commodities as well, through the end of August 2008, just before the financial crisis broke out in full force. From the paper:

This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for commodities, including those for energy (crude oil, gasoline, heating oil markets and natural gas), precious and base metals (gold, silver, aluminum, copper, lead, nickel and tin), and agricultural commodities (corn, soybean and wheat). In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot prices. We find that while energy futures prices are generally unbiased predictors of future spot prices, there are certain notable exceptions. For both base and precious metals, the results are much less favorable to unbiasedness hypothesis. For precious metals and copper and lead, we strongly reject the null that β=1 at all three horizons. For the these other base metals, while we cannot reject that β=1, due to large standard errors. Finally, both corn and soybean futures have β close to 1, while wheat has β<1. Excepting oil and base metals, futures tend to outperform a random walk specification in out of sample forecasts.

The regression we run is:

s_t - s_t-k = β ₀ + β ₁ (f _t|t-k - s_t-k) + ε _t

Where s_t is the log spot price at time t, f_t|t-k is the log futures price at time t-k that matures at time t. The resulting β coefficients at the three month horizons are displayed in Figure 2.

Despite the bias in futures, along a RMSE dimension, futures outperform a random walk for most commodities, except for base metals (the out of sample period is 03M01 to 08M07). That being said, the outperformance relative to a random walk is seldom statistically significant.

For the full year, Massey expects coal shipments to be between 37.5 and 38.5 million tons, with average produced coal realization between $63.00 and $63.50 per ton. Average cash cost per ton for the full year 2009 is expected to be between $50.50 and $51.00. For 2010, Massey sees coal shipments of 37 to 41 million tons. Average sales price is, however, expected to increase to $64 to $67 per ton. Massey has about 39 million ton sales contract for 2010. Of this, 33 million tons have been priced at an average of $63 per ton. Massey expects cash costs for 2010 to be in the range of $48 to $51 per ton.

At the end of the quarter, Massey had cash and cash equivalents of $640 million, up 5.4% from $607 million at Dec 31, 2008. Total debt at quarter end stood at $1.3 billion. Debt to capitalization ratio improved to 52.2% from last year’s 53.8%.

Despite losing 15 million cubic feet equivalent per day (MMcfe/d) of production as a result of the sale of its Fuhrman Mascho Field in West Texas at the end of June, total production volumes for the quarter increased 13% year over year, driven by successful drilling results in the
Barnett and Marcellus shale plays. Total volumes averaged at 437 MMcfe/d (84% natural gas), reflecting the 27th consecutive quarter of sequential production growth.

While average oil production decreased 30% from the year-earlier level to 5.8 thousand barrels per day (Mbbl/d), natural gas liquid and natural gas volumes jumped by 57% and 16% year over year to 5.9 Mbbl/d and 367 MMcf/d, respectively.

Average price realization for natural gas during the quarter, including hedging effects, was $6.05 per Mcf (compared to $8.62 in the year-ago period). Average prices for crude oil and natural gas liquids were $63.88 (versus $67.40) and $31.10 ($58.33) per barrel.

Given the thumping drilling success and the proceeds available from the property sale, Range has increased its capital budget for 2009 to $740 million from $700 million. The company intends to deploy this fund to acquire additional leases in areas where it has had drilling success this year. It has also increased its production growth target to 13% from 10%.

We believe that Range is on track to drive down its operating costs by various measures including sale of higher cost properties and ramp-up of production in its core areas with low costs, particularly in the Marcellus Shale play. As a result, operating cost per Mcfe for the quarter came down by 25%.

Range maintains an internally funded capital program with a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 43%. Given its improved financial position, low-cost business model and significant exposure to the shale plays, we believe that the company might be able to add value for its shareholders.

Chicago, IL – October 19, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Cognizant (CTSH), UBS AG (UBS), Infosys Technologies Ltd (INFY), Repsol YPF S.A. (REP) and Eni S.p.A. (E).

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Here are highlights from Friday’s AnalystBlog:

Cognizant Buys UBS ISC

Cognizant (CTSH) recently announced a definitive agreement to acquire UBS India Service Centre Private Limited for about $75 million. Based in India, UBS ISC is a captive service provider to UBS AG (UBS) and currently employs 2,000 associates.

Headquartered in Zurich and Basel, Switzerland, UBS AG is a global firm providing services to private, corporate and institutional clients. New Jersey-based Cognizant is a leading provider of consulting, technology and business process outsourcing (BPO) services.

The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2009. As part of the transaction, UBS and Cognizant have entered into a multi-year service agreement under which Cognizant will provide a range of business process outsourcing (BPO), knowledge process outsourcing (KPO), IT, and remote infrastructure management services to UBS divisions around the globe. Cognizant aims to help these divisions to reduce time-to-market, expand service delivery, and improve productivity, operational efficiency and quality.

UBS is a leader in wealth management, investment banking, asset management, research and remote IT infrastructure management. Management at Cognizant believes that this acquisition will help Cognizant strengthen its business and knowledge process capabilities, deepen its financial services domain knowledge, and improve its capabilities to provide integrated services across consulting, technology, and outsourcing.

Cognizant continues to outperform its peers and remains a leader in IT services. Compared to its competitors Tata Consultancy Services Ltd and Infosys Technologies Ltd (INFY), CTSH is setting a more robust tone going forward.

Repsol Confirms Gas in Venezuela

Following the test on recently found gas resource in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Venezuela, Repsol YPF S.A. (REP) confirmed reserves of between 5.6 trillion and 7.8 trillion cubic feet of gas. With an estimated area of 33 square kilometers, it is the country’s largest discovery.

Repsol (32.5% interest) partners with Italy's Eni S.p.A. (E – 32.5%) and Venezuela's state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (35%) for future production on this resource.

While Venezuela aims to increase natural gas output to overcome the current deficit, Repsol wants to boost oil and gas production through new discoveries off the coasts of Brazil and Venezuela after four years of declining output.

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About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/zacksresearch

Join us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/pages/Zacks-Investment-Research/57553657748?ref=ts

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contact:
Mark Vickery
Web Content Editor
312-265-9380
Visit: www.zacks.com

Repsol (32.5% interest) partners with Italy's Eni S.p.A. (E – 32.5%) and Venezuela's state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (35%) for future production on this resource.

While Venezuela aims to increase natural gas output to overcome the current deficit, Repsol wants to boost oil and gas production through new discoveries off the coasts of Brazil and Venezuela after four years of declining output.

However, a challenging operating and contractual environment in Venezuela may create obstacles for developing new gas reserves. Moreover, the mandate of the Venezuelan government to sell any new gas to the domestic market at subsidized prices may negatively impact the company’s earnings.

Apart from the company’s declining reserves and low reserve lives, a host of challenges (weak volumes and rising costs) will continue to weigh on valuation, limiting its upside from current levels. Our Neutral rating remains unchanged at this stage.