Though this paper bears a date of "June 2009," I have just now come across it.  Stanislav Secrieru of the excellent Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) has a piece which considers whether or not the economic crisis and lower oil prices will motivate Russia to scale back its more aggressive foreign policy ambitions.  Secrieru envisions two scenarios:  one in which a more compliant Kremlin seeks to bridge the gap with the West, or second, that things remain the same with Russia maintaining its normative independence in foreign policy making.Below is a quote, download the 10-page paper here:

Rationalists argue that power capabilities define the actors' foreign policy goals. Accordingly, they assume that a decline in state resources will compel Russia to scale down its international ambitions. There are expectations that, as the crisis strikes with full force, ...

Russia’s current woes can be readily summed up in just one single variable – the value of the ruble – and this value, as we all know, is falling. Almost uncontrollably so.br /br /blockquoteThe bank’s target will be “very quickly” breached without more intervention, said Gaelle Blanchard of Societe Generale SA in London. “Right now the market is convinced it wants to see the ruble lower,” Blanchard said. “As long as the central bank gives these targets, then speculators are going to have something to aim for.”br /br //blockquoteblockquote“The market is testing whether the authorities see this band as something permanent or something that will move,” said Lars Rassmussen, an emerging markets analyst at Danske Bank A/S. “Our view is that they’ll move it because it’s not worth wasting the reserves for a band that is obviously not wide enough.”/blockquoteblockquoteFirst Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov expressed regret that the general …

It was one of those rare moments that one of Vladimir Putin's people humiliated him in public. It was on May 23, 2007, when Putin "suggested studying the possibility of investing funds received from sales of Russian energy in Russian blue chip stocks, in light of the stock market's stagnation during the first quarter of 2007." At the time, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin could barely hide his shock, and immediately expressed his strong disagreement with Putin's suggestion, arguing that such investments would hike inflation and trigger stock market speculation. Kudrin has come under fire several times now over the management of the stabilization fund, and it is interesting to see the following announcement in light of the recent release of his #2 man Sergei Storchak. And low and behold, today Forbes reports... Russia's National Wealth Fund will invest $6.9 billion, or nearly a seventh of its ...

by Edward Hugh: BarcelonaWell the action in Russia this week has moved on slightly, and the damage has started to spread from pressure on the domestic stock market (accompanied by capital flight) to the real economy - via a very rapid tightening in credit conditions for Russian domestic users. We are also seeing a rapid slowdown in Russian manufacturing industry as internal demand slows while the inflation-driven decline in cost competitiveness continues to make imported products (where available) an attractive alternative to the home produced variant.Emerging-market bonds have been generally falling this week as the U.S. Senate's approval of a $700 billion bank rescue package did little to revive demand for riskier debt, and Russia has, unsurprisingly, been among the worst affected. The extra yield investors demand to own developing-nation bonds rather than U.S. Treasuries rose 8 basis points yestreday to 4.14 percentage points after widening ...

by Edward Hugh: BarcelonaWell the action in Russia this week has moved on slightly, and the damage has started to spread from pressure on the domestic stock market (accompanied by capital flight) to the real economy - via a very rapid tightening in credit conditions for Russian domestic users. We are also seeing a rapid slowdown in Russian manufacturing industry as internal demand slows while the inflation-driven decline in cost competitiveness continues to make imported products (where available) an attractive alternative to the home produced variant.Emerging-market bonds have been generally falling this week as the U.S. Senate's approval of a $700 billion bank rescue package did little to revive demand for riskier debt, and Russia has, unsurprisingly, been among the worst affected. The extra yield investors demand to own developing-nation bonds rather than U.S. Treasuries rose 8 basis points yestreday to 4.14 percentage points after widening ...

The outlook rating for Russia's banking system was changed today from "stable" to "negative" by Moody's Investors Services. The Banking System Outlook Report (published today) clited slowing asset growth, higher inflation, the slump in equities and funds leaving the country, all of which could result in deteriorating fundamentals for banks, according to the credit rating agency. Moody's thus joins the other two large credit rating agencies - Fitch Ratings and Standard and Poor's in downgrading at least a part of the Russian financial system. Fitch said in a report last week that Russian real estate and construction companies were the most at risk as domestic and international banks curb lending, while Russia's credit outlook was cut to ``stable'' from ``positive'' at Standard & Poor's on Sept. 19. S&P's cited the growing pressure on Russian authorities to spend resources from the National Wealth Fund, undermining the nation's ...

Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev today pledged $20 billion in financial support for the Russian stock market and cut oil taxes in an attempt to bring a halt to what has now become Russia's worst financial crisis in a decade. Medvedev took this action in order to try to lay the basis for a reopening of Russia's bourses tomorrow, following three days of irregular operation on the back of a 25% drop in the Micex Index. Following the announcement Russian shares traded in London surged and the interbank lending rate plunged.The announcement followed a meeting between Medvedev, the central bank Chairman Sergey Ignatiev and Russia's Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. Ignatiev also announced that central bank reserve requirements for Russia's banks would be eased in an attempt to provide more liquidity.The tax cut for oil exports will come into effect on Oct. 1 and save producers and refiners ...