by Edward Hugh: Barcelona br /br /The number of unemployed in Spain was up again in March - by "only" 123,543. I say "only" since it is evidently less than the 154,508 increase registered in February, or the 198,538 registered in January. And indeed many of the newspaper stories have been full of arguments from Employment Minister Maravillas Rojo (would that she could work "Maravillas") about how Spain registered the weakest unemployment gain in six months in March (when compared to the previous month). However, as those who look into the economic analysis side of this a bit more (and who don't believe in either wonders or "miracles) point out, taking seasonal factors into account the monthly 3.55% rise in March shows a more or less steady trend, and no special sign of improvement, despite the large stimulus programme. Last March, for example, unemployment strongfell by 0.62%./strongbr /br /So when ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelona"The Kazakh government is ready to step in,'' Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Karim Masimov said this morning in a telephone interview with Bloomberg "The Kazakh banking system with the support of the government and central bank will fulfill all obligations to international investors.....We have our own specific plan to survive without any external support....I don't think we need support from the International Monetary Fund or overseas.'' Well that is good news, so at least we know that one of the CIS and CEE economies won't be looking to the IMF for bail-out support in this crisis which is presently growing by the day. So Kazakstan, that country which is reputedly host to reserves of approximately 95% of the elements in the periodic table, with a population of around 15 million housed on a surface area greater than the whole of Western Europe, is going to be able to look after itself. But hang on a minute, just where is Kazakhstan, and just what have they been getting up to over there, and why the hell should I take Karim Masimov's word for it, when just about all the other Iceland Look-alike show contestants seem to be saying the same? After all, didn't those extermely bright and able young people over at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto say in a report only last week that, along with Latvia, the country's $100 billion oil-led economy is among the most vulnerable to the present global credit crisis and the skid-row economic trajectories that go with it simply because of its excessive reliance on short-term foreign borrowing. And isn't it the case that the cost of protecting Kazakhstan government debt against default has more than doubled this month - to over 1,000 basis points (or 10%), the level for borrowers that investors term ``distressed,'' according to CMA Datavision credit-default swap prices. Only Ukraine, which as we know is already seeking IMF support, is classified as being a bigger risk among European emerging-market governments. Surely all those highly dedicated, bright, and extremely able young people who are doing all that trading know what they are about, don't they?

by Edward Hugh: Barcelona India is in the middle of a storm at the moment, there can be no doubt about that. But the important point to note is that this storm is not of India's making. The financial turmoil in a number of key developed economies, and above all the United States, is sending shock waves across the global economy, and as is normal, when the earth trembles, it is the most fragile who notice it most. India's economy may be fragile in the sense that it is very vulnerable to what is colloqially known as global risk sentiment, but it is not fragile in terms of being susceptible to having its growth trajectory knocked completely off course. India may be shaken, but her economy will not be broken. Emerging Market Bonds Emerging-market bonds had their worst week in four years this week as the deepening credit crisis raised global recession concerns ...

by Edward Hugh: BarcelonaIndia is in the middle of a storm at the moment, there can be no doubt about that. But the important point to note is that this storm is not of India's making. The financial turmoil in a number of key developed economies, and above all the United States, is sending shock waves across the global economy, and as is normal, when the earth trembles, it is the most fragile who notice it most. India's economy may be fragile in the sense that it is very vulnerable to what is colloqially known as global risk sentiment, but it is not fragile in terms of being susceptible to having its growth trajectory knocked completely off course. India may be shaken, but her economy will not be broken.Emerging Market BondsEmerging-market bonds had their worst week in four years this week as the deepening ...

Brazil's inflation continues to fall back steadily. Brazil's mid-month inflation rate fell in September to its lowest level since last March, increasing speculation the central bank will take its time before deciding on future interest-rate increases. Consumer price inflation as measured by the benchmark IPCA- 15 index slowed for a third consecutive month to 0.26 percent, from 0.35 percent by mid-August, according to the latest data from the national statistics agency.The annual inflation rate fell back to 6.2 percent from 6.23 percent at the end of August. The annual rate has now been reducing slowly but steadily since the July peak.Inflation on non-food items accelerated to 0.41 percent in September, from 0.38 percent last month, the IPCA report said. The pressure on prices from strong demand was offset by a 0.25 percent drop in food prices, which compared ...

The rate of increase in Brazil's retail sales accelerated again in July, indicating t that sustained domestic demand may well allow Latin America's largest economy to weather the fall in commodity prices rather better than expected. Retail sales were up an inflation corrected 11 percent in July, following a revised 8.2 percent increase in June. Sales rose in June at the slowest pace in 14 months, according to data from the national statistics agency. Evidently domestic demand is still robust and four central bank interest rate increases since April have far from throttled Brazilian domestic demand, which had been contributing to the upward movement in annual inflation - to around 6.5% - well above the mid-point of the central bank's target range (4.5 percent plus or minus 2 percentage points), but still significantly below the levels seen ...

Brazil's inflation through mid- August slowed for the second consecutive month, bolstering confidence that the central bank will bring consumer prices back to target next year. Brazil's inflation rate as measured by the benchmark IPCA-15 index decreased to a monthly 0.35 percent from a monthly 0.63 percent through mid- July as food prices eased, the national statistics agency said today. Today's report showed that the annual inflation rate for the 12 months through mid-August slowed to 6.23 percent from 6.30 percent in mid-July. Month-on-Month food prices rose 0.25 percent, compared to 1.75 percent at the mid-July reading. Now we need to wait and see what the central bank decide to do about this.

Brazil's unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 8.1 percent in July from the previous month, the national statistics agency said today. Unemployment in Brazil's six largest metropolitan areas was up from 7.8 percent in June.This is a surprising number since we saw seasonally adjusted year on year job creation of 184,000 in July, down from the even higher 250,000 registered in June, but still pretty healthy I would have thought, and 3-month average continued to move up from 172,000 to 182,000. In fact on an unadjusted basis Brazil added 203,218 government- registered jobs last month, the best July performance ever. That was a 60 percent over the 126,992 formal jobs created in July 2007, Labor Minister Carlos Lupi said in a statement. Brazil will add a record 2 million new formal jobs in 2008, according to Lupi, compared to his forecast of 1.8 million made at the ...

Brazil's retail sales increased in June at the slowest pace in 14 months as higher interest rates and faster inflation cooled domestic demand. Retail, supermarket and grocery store sales volume rose 8.2 percent in June from a year earlier. The increases follows a revised 11.1 percent jump in May according to data drom the national statistics agency in Rio de Janeiro. Sales rose 1.3 percent from May. Three central bank rate increases since April to bring inflation down from a three-year high are starting to curb household spending and reduce earnings. Inflation accelerated to 6.37 percent in the 12-months through July from an eight-year low of 2.96 percent in March 2007 on higher food prices, cutting into workers' income. Despite the slowdown retail sales in the first six months of 2008 expanded 10.6 percent, the fastest pace since the statistics agency began keeping records in 2001.

Brazil's annual inflation accelerated slightly to 6.37 percent in July, inching closer to the 6.5 percent upper end of the central bank's tolerance range of 2 percent on either side of the 4.5 percent target. Monthly inflation as measured by the benchmark IPCA index was 0.53 percent in July, down slightly from the 0.74 percent registered in June, according to the national statistics agency earlier today. Brazilian inflation slowed in July for a second consecutive month largely on moderating food prices, raising confidence that the central bank will manage to bring consumer prices back towards the target by next year.