Baltimore — (TFN): It’s confirmation! On Friday I wrote how I may have a touch of the flu or some other mind-altering ailment because my thoughts were far more liberal than I am comfortable with admitting.

Well, it turns out my ultra-liberal, straight-ticket voting, French-guy marrying sister has a verifiable case of the pig flu. And guess who I had dinner with on Thursday night? You betcha, big sis.

There we have it: cause and effect.

Fortunately, my head case was short-lived. By the time my venison sausage and eggs were off the front burner on Saturday morning, I was back to my old self, almost knocking my O.J. off the table stomping my fist over a local political battle.

In Friday’s edition of notes, I quoted the following paragraph from Callum Robert’s book The Unnatural History of the Sea:

If any trawling ground be over-fished, the trawlers themselves will be the

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In the weekly report that always seems to move prices 5% one way or the other, the natural gas supply report showed a higher than expected supply in natural gas. a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087amp;sid=aJ._taTKDeSE"Here's the story from Bloomberg/a:br /br /blockquoteNatural gas futures fell the most in two months after a government report showed a bigger-than- estimated increase in U.S. stockpiles. Supplies in storage gained 66 billion cubic feet in the week ended July 31 to 3.089 trillion cubic feet, the a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DOENUSCH%3AIND" t_delay="50" t_width="110" t_bgcolor="#ddedd9" t_fontface="Verdana,sans-serif" t_fontcolor="#000000" t_static="true" t_above="true"Energy Department/a said. Analysts forecast a gain of 61 billion. The total was a record for late July, based on weekly department data going back to 1994.br /br /“We have a lot of supply and it really weighs on the market,” said a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Phil+Flynnamp;site=wnewsamp;client=wnewsamp;proxystylesheet=wnewsamp;output=xml_no_dtdamp;ie=UTF-8amp;oe=UTF-8amp;filter=pamp;getfields=wnnisamp;sort=date:D:S:d1" t_delay="50" t_width="110" t_bgcolor="#ddedd9" t_fontface="Verdana,sans-serif" t_fontcolor="#000000" t_static="true" t_above="true"Phil Flynn/a, vicebr /president of research at PFG Best in Chicago. “The dollar ...

div align=”justify”So the US recession is officially a year old, panicking span class=”blsp-spelling-error” id=”SPELLING_ERROR_0″Chinese/span authorities are letting the Yuan depreciate to help plunging exports, the famed Tudor hedge fund is halting span class=”blsp-spelling-error” id=”SPELLING_ERROR_1″redemptions/span, and economist Paul span class=”blsp-spelling-error” id=”SPELLING_ERROR_2″Krugman/span has noticed the economy is in ’steep decline’. All of these factors fed a sharp reversal of the recent 20% rally, but given that span class=”blsp-spelling-error” id=”SPELLING_ERROR_3″Krugman/span has become the personification of a contrary indicator, I’d be buying. emstrongMy tactical view as explained in previous posts remains intact; we will likely see new bear market lows in 2009 (and a bursting of the historic bond bubble), but not before a substantial rally through the next couple of months. /strong/emOne of the key secular trends that will span class=”blsp-spelling-corrected” id=”SPELLING_ERROR_4″define/span our long-term economic future is Climate Change, but in which direction? Right now, the Green lobby are quietly cheering global recession; …

When people ask me if I think crude oil is going to $50 or $150, I nod sagely and say: “Yes, probably.” I’m not being flip. I’m simply giving both the short-term and the long-term timeframes. Short-term, crude oil is probably heading lower, even though it’s nearly 60% off its highs. The last chance to hold the line on oil prices was at OPEC’s emergency meeting. And the oil cartel choked like a cat on a hairball. They cut 1.5 million barrels per day of production when they needed to cut about 3 million barrels per day. The OPEC meeting was the last obstacle in the way of deflationary forces that are driving oil prices lower in the short-term. Long-term, there are forces that should drive oil much higher. And one of ...

I'm surprised by the indiscriminate selling in commodities and commodity-related stocks.

Were there bubbles? Yes, but demand remains high and product shortages continue to exist.

For example, erratic deliveries of steel have caused an acquaintance of mine to put his employees on flexible work schedules. According to him, steel mills are not sticking to regular production schedules of the type of metal used for the packaging products that his company manufactures.

Not surprisingly, his customers are unhappy. But, because they lack a cost-effective alternative, they have no choice but to accept the higher prices and irregular production schedules.

Then there is fertilizer. Employees of fertilizer company Potash (POT) are on strike at a time when there continues to be a shortage of potash - a key ingredient for fertilizer. The company told Standard & Poor's that the strike should only affect non-agricultural customers. That may not sound like a

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