[Editor's Note: After more than a year of chaos and controversy, some of the leading U.S. banks saw their stock prices soar during the second quarter. As part of its mid-year forecast series, Money Morning examines the outlook for U.S. banks for the rest of this year. To see earlier stories from our mid-year forecast series, please click here.] By Martin Hutchinson Contributing Editor Money Morning

Can U.S. bank stocks continue their winning streak?

In February, I analyzed the top 12 U.S. banks to determine whether they really needed $1.5 trillion in taxpayer-provided bailout capital. I concluded that only a few of those banks seemed to be in any danger of collapse, and actually recommended several.

Policymakers and the market later came to agree with me: The Standard & Poor’s 500 Financial Index has more than doubled from its March low and several bank stocks have posted triple-digit …

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner last week proposed a series of programs, totaling $1.5 trillion, to bail out the U.S. banking system. Of course, Geithner hasn’t told us precisely how he plans to spend the money, or identified which banks require such an enormous outlay. So I thought it was worth looking at the United States’ 12 largest banks to see where the problems might be and identify which banks might need big infusions of government cash. I perused the financial statements of all 12 banks, and also looked at their market valuations. Unlike when the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) was proposed in September - when the projections for potential losses were largely financial conjecture - we now have important concrete data on the banking system’s troubles; namely, each of the bank’s annual financial reports for ...

America’s finest quality is that it has no memory! Three months ago, the topic of the day was which window to jump from; today all I hear is how hot the market is. This morning’s conversation on “Squawk Box” was how the market has moved 24 percent and maybe there is too much exuberance.

Too much exuberance? Last October we were wondering if there would be a run on the banks. Now it’s too much activity.

This complete lack of an ability to remember any bad news has a backside, you knew that was coming. The backside is that we also are blinded by the short-lived bad news.

For four months, almost every editor at “The Daily Edge” described the market this fall as the best buying opportunity of our lifetime. Virtually no one paid any attention.

The only thing more deficient than our memory is our ability to buy when things are cheap,

...

Bank of American Corp. (BAC), which is getting $15 billion from the U.S. government as part of the Treasury Department’s $250 billion “recapitalization” effort, is doubling its stake in state-owned China Construction Bank Corp., and will hold a 20% stake worth $24 billion in China’s second-largest lender when that deal is finalized.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC), which will get $7.7 billion from Treasury’s Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP), is using that cash infusion to help finance its $5.2 billion buyout of embattled National City Corp. (NCC).

And U.S. Bancorp (USB), which received a $6.6 billion capital infusion from that same rescue package, has acquired two California lenders – Downey Savings & Loan Association, F.A., a subsidiary of Downey Financial Corp. (DSL), and PFF Bank & Trust, a subsidiary of PFF Bancorp Inc. (OTC: PFFB). U.S. Bank

...

The government is banking on the American consumer to rescue the economy. But debt-ridden households have had enough, says Andrew Gordon. He says the government’s massive bailout are benefiting very few in the short-term. But the long-term consequences will be felt by all.

This from Investor’s Daily Edge:

The government’s latest bailout moves have me scratching my head. It’s throwing $200 billion worth of guarantees at recent and current loans tied to consumer and small-business spending.

Hank and Ben want the consumer to bail out the economy. And they want to do it by putting consumers deeper into debt.

They don’t get it.

They don’t get that consumers are tapped out.

What do they think when they see numbers that show that American households are in deeper debt than ever before? Or when they see that consumer spending in October fell the most in

...

The American dream is drowning in debt, says Andrew Gordon. The middle class are being squeezed as tumbling asset prices hack away at household wealth. And things won’t change unless the government steps up to the plate.

More from Andrew at Investor’s Daily Edge:

We’re in a “damned if we do, damned if we don’t” economy. And there’s not a damn thing we can do about it.

Our economy floats on the whims of the American consumer. When they feel confident about the future, they spend. The more they spend, the better the economy does. This is oddly true even if 80 percent of the spending is on goods from Asia.

Right now the American consumer isn’t feeling so confident and the economy is suffering as a result.

But if we spend more, we go more into debt. We’re already spending more than we make. And the

...

The Treasury’s plan to inject $250 billion in capital directly into US banks is underway. But William Patalon III says some of these taxpayer funds will be used by big banks to acquire junior competitors. This means the increase in lending that the plan is supposed to spark will be modest at best. And less competition in the banking sector could mean a rise in fees going forward.

This from Money Morning:

While the U.S. government’s plan to invest $250 billion into U.S. financial institutions has been billed as a strategy that will bolster the health of the banking system and also jump-start lending, the recapitalization plan is likely to have a secondary effect – one that whipsawed U.S. taxpayers likely won’t be very happy to learn about.

Those billions are a virtual lock to set off a merger tsunami in which the biggest banks use taxpayer money to get bigger

...

While the U.S. government’s plan to invest $250 billion into U.S. financial institutions has been billed as a strategy that will bolster the health of the banking system and also jump-start lending, the recapitalization plan is likely to have a secondary effect – one that whipsawed U.S. taxpayers likely won’t be very happy to learn about. Those billions are a virtual lock to set off a merger tsunami in which the biggest banks use taxpayer money to get bigger – admittedly removing the smaller, weaker banks from the market, but ultimately also reducing the competition that benefited consumers and kept the explosion in banking fees from being far worse than it already is. One last point: Experts say that takeovers financed by the government infusions are likely to have less of a beneficial impact on the economy than an actual increase in ...

Maverick CapitalMaverick Capital Management Holdings AnalysisThis post is being written as part of HedgeFundBlogger.com's Investment Securities Tool which analyzes the holdings of hedge fund managers.Lee Ainslie started Maverick Capital back in 1993 with $38 million. Nowadays, the fund is worth $10 billion. Ainslie, like many of the other fund managers I've profiled, has a background rooted in learning from legendary great Julian Robertson at Tiger Management. So, due to the fact that these proteges learned from the best and have had great success running their own hedge funds, I continually try to find a reason not to follow these funds. And, needless to say I'm never successful. Some contacts over at Maverick have explained that their hedge fund strategy is straight up stock picking, both long and short. They made ...

With the first bit of distance from which to view the U.S. government’s bailout of government-sponsored entities (GSEs) Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), we wanted to find out from Zacks senior finance industry analyst Neena Mishrahow much of a game-changer this is for the housing market, Wall Street overall and the U.S. economy as a whole.

What sort of immediate impact do you expect among financial companies in your coverage now that Fannie and Freddie will officially be bailed out?

The move was overall positive for the housing market and the wider economy, as it removed the uncertainty related to the government support of the GSEs, and is also likely to help bring mortgage rates down. Yet we do not expect it to lead to a recovery in the housing markets. The housing situation in the country continues to be quite grim as there is still

...