I concluded a post on stock markets over the weekend saying: “After equities’ seven-month climb, stock markets certainly look vulnerable for a decline. Two downside reversal days - on Wednesday and Friday - would seem to indicate that stocks could commence a pullback to work off the overbought condition, allowing fundamentals to reassert themselves.”

Global stock markets, as well as other risky assets, closed sharply lower over the past few days as concerns mounted over the sustainability of the global economic recovery and the outlook for central bank policy.

The performance of the major asset classes is summarized by the charts below, with the top one showing the period from the March 9 stock market lows until October 19 peak and the second one the subsequent period. The numbers indicate an all-change pattern in the performances as risk aversion re-entered financial markets and government bonds and the US

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On Oct. 7, NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYX) announced trading volumes for its global cash equities and derivatives exchanges for September 2009. Trading volumes declined year-over-year as the crisis-level volatility drove near-record trading volumes last year. However, volumes increased from Aug. 2009 levels, with U.S. and European cash products increasing 2.9% and 13.2%, respectively, and U.S. and European derivatives products increasing 30.0% and 24.4%, respectively. The highlights for the monthly volume data are as follows: NYSE Group (which includes NYSE, NYSE Arca and NYSE Amex) U.S. cash products handled average daily volumes declined  30.8% to 3.0 billion shares from the prior year but increased 2.9% compared to Aug. 2009. Year-to-date, total Tape A and Tape B consolidated average daily volumes of 8.0 billion shares increased a combined 32.9% compared to the prior-year period, while Tape C consolidated average daily volumes of 2.3 billion shares increased only ...

Pundits greeted Angela Merkel’s convincing election win in Germany Sunday with a collective yawn. Commentators think the German economy is sluggish and over-dependent on exports, and believe that a change in the German government from a grand coalition to a center-right coalition will make little policy difference.

I think that’s wrong. It’s an erroneous viewpoint that’s symptomatic of the short memories of the chattering media. It’s also one that could cause investors to miss out on one of the best profit plays in the global marketplace today.

I’m talking about Germany – the real powerhouse of Europe.

The “New” Germany

From the 1950s to the 1980s, West Germany consistently delivered high growth rates and low inflation. West German engineering proved superior to any other on the planet. And West German living standards rose far above anywhere else in Europe.

Then came 1990.

East and West Germany were reunited and an

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By Shaun le Roux

The Credit Crisis was at the heart of the monumental collapse in global stock markets in 2008.

The credit-specific crisis has largely been averted by extraordinary government and central bank intervention, which has seen a massive expansion in the monetary base, and credit markets are now operating on pre-crisis terms. Now that we have that particularly ugly episode behind us, we can turn our attention to real world economics and try to assess what financial markets have in store for us over the years ahead.

We are of the view that no rational investment decision can be made today without first recognizing the major secular changes that are busy taking place in the world. In two key areas, the balance of power is in the process of shifting. We believe that you ignore these shifts at your peril.

Firstly, we believe that the world is becoming increasing dependant

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New research by Morgan Stanley Europe and Merrill Lynch Asia confirms old moving average based research by Stan Weinstein that the on-going upswing in the S&P 500 and other market indices around the world quite possibly has much further to go in this current bull run albeit with some volatility along the way. That could well have negative implications for the short-term price of gold bullion but, fortunately for the ‘gold bugs’ to be found in every room, continuing bright prospects for the stocks and warrants of gold and silver mining and royalty companies are expected.

Below is this week’s table showing the relatively poor performance of gold YTD (albeit not so for silver!) as compared to the HUI, GDM and CDNX in spite of closing above $1000 for the second consecutive week. Also note that the relatively unknown and misunderstood asset class of long-term warrants associated with commodity-related companies …

Regional holidays and commodity-related share weakness impacted Asian stock markets today with China's Shanghai Composite's down 1.5% following a 3.2% decline on Friday.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index of European shares also edged down for a second day, down 1.1%.  The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index fell 0.6%, led by mining and financial companies.  The drop in U.S. futures indicated the S&P 500 may slide after two straight weekly gains.  Last week's gains sent the S&P500 up 2.5% and 18.3% year to date as oil prices have rallied 61.5%; gold prices have advanced 14.2%; the yield on the 10-year has gone from 3.34% to 3.47%.  Volatility, as measured by the CBOE Vix, has fallen  by 40%.  The US dollar strengthened against 14 of the 16 most-traded currencies

The week ahead will show to be a busy one.  Leaders from the Group of 20 nations meet in Pittsburgh this

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GLOBAL MARKETS-, dollar gains

(Refiles to fix typo in headline)

* U.S. stocks slump as fear of more bank failures grows

* Dollar rises versus yen after strong U.S. factory data

* Oil slips below $69 a barrel on equities, strong dollar

U.S. stocks fell sharply on Tuesday as growing concerns about the U.S. banking system and over whether a recent rally in equity markets is warranted drove investors to the relative safety of bonds and the dollar.

Oil prices fell as the economic concerns outweighed surprisingly bullish U.S. data: the manufacturing sector grew in August for the first time in 19 months, while pending home sales hits a two-year high in July.

Government bond prices on both sides of the Atlantic rose as falling stocks enhanced the allure of lower-risk safe-haven debt despite the fresh evidence supporting the view of a global economic recovery.

There are “new concerns about the health of the banking system, the number

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The performance of a number of global stock markets is given in the table below in local currency terms for different measurement terms ended August 31. The numbers speak for themselves, but it is noteworthy that the MSCI World Index (+3.9%) and MSCI Emerging Markets Index (-0.2%) followed separate paths in August as China, Hong Kong and India underperformed.

Click here or on the table below for a larger image.

Top performers during August included Austria (+11.3%), Ireland (+10.9%) and Venezuela (+10.6%). At the bottom end of the performance rankings countries included China (-21.8%), Hong Kong (-4.1%) and India (0%).

The key moving-average levels are also given in the table above. With the exception of the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index, which fell below its 50-day moving average about two weeks ago,

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The debate rages on as to whether global stocks markets have turned the corner and are in the early stages of a new secular bull market, or whether we are experiencing a secondary bear market rally (or cyclical bull phase) within a primary bear market.

Although I am not a big proponent of averaging data across multi-year cycles, an analysis of the various stages of a typical secular bear market by Teun Draaisma and the strategy team of Morgan Stanley Europe nevertheless provides food for thought. The chart below shows what a typical secular bear market looks like based on the average of the past 19 major bear markets around the globe.

Considering the aggregate data, the team summarized their findings as follows:

“Each involved a peak-to-trough decline of at least 40% lasting

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World stocks slid on Wednesday after a mixed report on U.S. durable goods orders reignited doubts about economic recovery while oil prices fell on news of rising U.S. crude stockpiles.

The U.S. dollar gained, retracing the week’s losses, as the durables goods report for July eroded risk appetite and prompted investors to seek shelter in the safe-haven greenback.

Orders for long-lasting manufactured goods registered the biggest advance since July 2007, but excluding transportation goods, orders for durables were slightly below expectations.

Slippage among global stocks that climbed to 10-month highs this week boosted money flows into less risky assets, such as European government bonds, which also gained from some modest month-end buying, traders said.

Economic data in Europe showed further signs of recovery, as did a report showing U.S. new home sales jumped in July to their fastest pace in 10 months.

But a key measure of U.S. business demand — nondefense capital goods, excluding

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