Japan’s Historic Moment Creates Historic Confusion

by Ryan Cole, Investment U Research Team

The dust is settling in Japan, and the only thing we know for sure is that no one can agree… on anything.

With the new government in office – the first real time Japan has been ruled by any group other than the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) since the country became a democracy – there’s plenty of mystery and not much clarity, though everybody seems to have an opinion.

One commentator says government stimulus is about to go wild: Buy Japanese everything, she preaches, especially banks. But another disagrees: The too-cozy relationship between Japan’s government and contractors is now over, he maintains, so short Japanese construction. A third claims not much will change: Japan is a conservative ship that turns slowly, if at all. Yet still another says we’ve never really known Japanese ...

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The stock market is up 51% from its March 9 lows. The leading economic indicators have turned sharply positive, showing gains for each of the last four months. Manufacturing is on the rebound. And banks are promising to pay record bonuses, as their earnings have rebounded.

With this recent rush of upbeat economic news, it’s no wonder commentators are trumpeting the rebound of the U.S. economy.

But I think it’s time to short U.S. stocks.

Shocked?

Don’t be.

What most experts see as a strengthening U.S. rebound, I see as an increasingly dangerous “false dawn” – for these …

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The Permanent Wealth Investorassembles high-yielding dividend stocks, profit plays on gold and specially designated “Alpha Bulldog” stocks into high-income/high-return portfolios for subscribers. Hutchinson’s strategy is tailor-made for periods of market uncertainty, during which investors all too often go completely to cash – only to miss some of the biggest market returns in history when market sentiment turns positive. But it can work in virtually every market environment.

To find out about this strategy – or Hutchinson’s new service, The Permanent …

[Editor's Note: When it comes to global investing, longtime market guru Martin Hutchinson is one of the very best – because he knows the markets firsthand. After years of advising government finance ministers, crafting deals with global investment banks, and analyzing the world's financial markets, Hutchinson has used his creative insights to create a trading service for savvy investors.

The Permanent Wealth Investor assembles high-yielding dividend stocks, profit plays on gold and specially designated "Alpha-Dog" stocks into high-income/high-return portfolios for subscribers. Hutchinson's strategy is tailor-made for periods of market uncertainty, during which investors all too often go completely to cash - only to miss some of the biggest market returns in history when market sentiment turns positive. But it can work in virtually every market environment.To find out about this strategy - or Hutchinson's new service, The Permanent Wealth Investor – please just click here.]

Investors …

Japan’s Darkest Days Lay Ahead

Ryan Cole, The Investment U Research Team

Bet against Japan.

It pains me to say it. I lived in Japan for five years – great years. I love the country, I love the people, I love the cherry blossoms in spring and the festivals in the streets and the poetic dewdrop in my window each morning.

But right now, I hate Japan’s economy. Here’s why:

1. It’s an exporting country, and nobody’s buying.

The American savings rate has gone from 0 to around 5%, and it’s still rising. Remember, this is with U.S. unemployment hovering just under 10%, officially. And, with furloughs and cost-cutting measures, the average work-week for the “fully employed” has fallen to 33 hours – the lowest number on record. So a 5% savings rate of a markedly smaller income pie, equals the collapse of disposable income spending.

That

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ProFunds Group, the world’s largest manager of short and leveraged funds, announced today that it is launching four new ProShares ETFs, the first designed to seek twice the daily returns of indexes covering developed foreign markets, emerging markets, China and Japan. The new ETFs will be listed on NYSE Arca today.

“With some international markets posting strong year-to-date returns, investors are expressing interest in tools that allow them to gain magnified exposure to these markets,” said Michael L. Sapir, ProFunds Group Chairman and CEO. “These new ETFs complement our existing ETFs that are designed to provide short (or inverse) exposure to the same international indexes. Over the coming weeks, we plan to further expand our international offerings with ETFs covering more regions and specific countries.”

ProShares

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Lessons From Japan’s Great Depression

by Alexander Green, Oxford Club Investment Director

Monday I wrote about investment lessons from the Great Depression. Chief among these is that if you bought stocks after the Dow declined 50% from its 1929 peak, you did very well in the decade ahead, even though stocks continued to fall for the next 18 months.

In the decade from January 1931 to January 1940 - amidst the worst economic stretch in our history - bonds, real estate, commodities and cash all lagged the long-term performance of the Dow with dividends reinvested.

That’s a surprise to most investors - and a head’s up to those wondering what the heck to do with their money now that the Dow has lost half of its value.

But what about the other Great Depression, the recent one in Japan? In 1989, the Nikkei 225 traded above 40,000.

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