We've discussed recently the hot new place for natural gas is the potentially enormous Haynesville Shale [Jul 2: Petrohawk Energy and Chesapeake Energy Flying on Haynesville Shale News] (EDIT: Let me add 2 additional names) I've been hoping one of the 4 names closely associated with this space, either Petrohawk Energy (HK), Goodrich Petroleum (GDP), GMX Resources (GMXR), and Comstock Resources (CRK) would sell down to their 50 day moving average now that natural gas has finally been hit. But no mas as the charts below show. Things are going so well, that Goodrich actually placed a 3M share offering at $64 today and the stock is ...

I got a couple of reasonable "oh no you di-ints" on the post this morning that tried to compare complex products versus simple.The fund in question is TFS Market Neutral (TFSMX).My only observation was that the fund is complicated. One reader noted that it has more than bounced back from its August 2007 low and another reader said that he doubted that staying simple could match the result from TFSMX over varied market conditions.The chart goes back to the inception of the Rydex Managed Futures Fund (RYMFX) which I own. The chart also shows two of the hotter sectors over that time, as measured by sector ETF, as well. It would be fair to criticize the chart as not being long enough but it has been a wild 17 months and it is as ...

The BEA released the end-2007 International Investment Position data on June 27. Several observations: As in recent years, the NIIP to GDP ratio continues to deteriorate. However, the NIIP to GDP ratio as of end-2007 is improved relative to the originally reported end-2006 NIIP/GDP ratio. In the last year, the dollar change in the NIIP deviates substantially (i.e., is more positive) than the corresponding current account reported on a NIPA basis. This repeats the pattern from the previous five years. Interestingly, 2005 stands out by far as an outlier, wherein the the NIIP improves while the CA is in substantial deficit. There appears to be a measurable correlation between dollar depreciation against other major currencies and the deviation between change in NIIP and CA. The first two observations are illustrated in Figure 1. Figure 1: Net international investment position to GDP ratio, 2007 release (blue), ...

Continuing the theme of avoiding the stronger sectors and buying some weaker areas, I had almost bought Canadian Solar (CSIQ) just a few weeks ago in the mid $30s - it ramped to low $50s, and a missed opportunity went by the wayside. [Jun 17: Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Raises Guidance]It has now pulled back 30% from its high of $52 two weeks ago, and this appears to the be the market's current favorite - the only chart I can find in the sector where the stock has not broken the 50 day moving average. This is not my favorite name in the sector fundamentally - a huge amount of their last earnings were nothing more than currency gains - but the market doesn't peek beneath the hood to realize that, so we'll go with the market. And frankly, all that I've gained from buying ...

Again, I cannot short individual names but I would of liked to short Apple (AAPL) for the near term as I wrote a few days ago [Jun 9: Apple Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?]Don't look now but this chart has all the makings of a double top. I can't short individual names, but this might be a short term short, at least until the $160-$170 range.... in lieu of that I have just cut back the long position, awaiting lower entry points to rebuy. We'll see if I get one.We are down to the first support, 50 day moving average ($172) so I am beginning to rebuy, but only a bit here since this is definitely a double top we have formed. I'd much prefer the 200 day moving average of $161 (or lower - maybe low to mid $150s would be ...

I have no idea why Cummins Engine (CMI) is up 14% this AM to the $72s; I do see a news event involving Caterpillar (CAT), and Navistar but fail to see a direct connection - I could be missing the forest for the trees. Either way I am going to use this opportunity to cut back my position from a 1.6% stake to 0.6% (I actually bought some yesterday as it spiked downward to its 50 day moving average, but not enough of a stake to mention, so sort of lucked out on those shares)If anyone can decipher why that news is good for Cummins or if there is something else going on behind the scenes with this name, feel free to add a comment. We'll buy back on future pullbacks.[Apr 30: Cummins Engine Excellent Report on Strong International Sales]...

Despite having been burned by last week’s colossal head-fake, we were hoping to avoid re-adjusting our RTH double-calendar—but Friday’s drop of 2.7 times the ETF’s one-day standard deviation was not a good sign. On Monday RTH fell through its 50-day moving average and closed just pennies below it. After bouncing off the 200-day MA yesterday, RTH is down again this morning and trading below our theoretical break-even. We’re once again approaching our maximum loss, so we’re making the following adjustment:

-2 RTH July 100 call +2 RTH June 100 call for a net credit of $0.80;

+2 RTH July 95 put -2 RTH June 95 put for a net debit of $1.55.

Don’t forget that two contracts here represent all of our position (e.g., if we had 4 contracts at the 100 strike, we’d be rolling all 4 of them). Now we have a single calendar put spread at the 95 strike. Normally

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In this environment, unlike most of the past 2 months we have to pick spots and assume our purchases (as we layer in) will lose money in the near term. This is different than when we buy a pullback in a market that is generally in an uptrend (mid March to late May) - where when you make a purchase on a pullback, you expect a quick bounce. So with that in mind, I am continuing to rebuild a position in DryShips (DRYS), the dry bulk shipper (with deep sea drilling thrown in); but not expecting any sustained move up in the near term. But my first buy target has been reached, so I am executing a purchase.Now, as the rest of Wall Street joins my thesis (eventually) of a global slowdown these stocks could take it on the chin from a perception point ...

Over the last several weeks, I’ve been steadily ratcheting up my warnings on the interest rate front. On April 25, I noted that the “Bond King” Bill Gross believed Treasuries were overvalued — and that he was aiming to profit from a decline in bond prices (and corresponding rise in yields). My message for you …
“Gross is betting on the same thing I’ve been warning you about for some time — that bond prices will fall and interest rates will rise. The market’s recent action suggests that’s just what we’re going to see.”
Then several days later, on May 9, I got even more explicit. I warned you right here that “The bond market is on the brink.” Specifically, I said …
“Bonds are right on the brink of a significant technical breakdown. An …

Very busy day today! I am cutting all 3 solar positions today but with a caveat - all 3 are under a resistance level; if the stocks show enough strength to break above this resistance, I'll buy back. They have been mostly range bound (strangely) with energy prices ballooning but there is a lot of strength today as the speculators run from 1 sector to another in their rotation. Looks like today is solar's turn. Let me explain each one Yingli Green Energy (YGE) is in the $22.70s. If it breaks north of $23 (200 day moving average) than it's in far better technical condition and I'd buy back my stake I sold... right now it's still range bound but at the top end of the range Trina Solar (TSL) is in the $43.10s; it could still work all the ...