The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported today that mortgage delinquencies hit a record high in the third quarter: "The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.64 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the third quarter of 2009, up 40 basis points from the second quarter of 2009, and up 265 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased 108 basis points from 8.86 percent in the second quarter of 2009 to 9.94 percent this quarter." (For more, click here.) Unlike the TransUnion report that came out yesterday, the definition of being delinquent is a bit more expansive in this report, covering all mortgages that are at least one payment behind, while the TransUnion report was for mortgages that ...

Dollar’s rally is cut short…Major problems for loans still exist…Yen rallies on exporter repatriation…Kiwi gets whacked! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Happy Friday to one and all! It’s still raining here in St. Louis this morning, but I won’t that get me down, as it is a Friday! G-20 has gotten a bit ugly, folks… Seems everyone just can’t seem to get along! Imagine that! 20 different countries, and now they want to be able to watch another country’s finances and comment on them! Oh, I can see that working out real well! NOT!

So… Yesterday, we had the dollar gaining back the ground that it had lost the previous day, but at the end of the day, we’re looking very much like the currencies hadn’t moved from morning to morning… And overnight, didn’t bring about much movement… So… When you get to the currency round-up below, you’ll

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Investing Without Trailing Stops: Here’s Why 75% of Stocks Are a Sucker’s Bet

by Alexander Green, Advisory Panelist

A couple weeks ago, I explained why it is imperative to run trailing stops behind your individual stocks.

Sell stops ensure that your capital is protected and your profits don’t slip through your fingers.

However, one subscriber took me to task, saying that a trailing stop guarantees you won’t “sell at the top.”

Quite true.

However, “selling at the top” and its corollary, “buying at the bottom,” are not realistic investment goals. Here’s why…

The Danger of Selling High and Buying Low

For one thing, you never know the top or the bottom until you’re looking in the rear view mirror. And given enough time, all-time highs and lows are usually exceeded.

For example, you may sell a stock at its 52-week high – not a good

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Why Housing Prices Will Keep Dropping in Value

by Alexander Green, Advisory Panelist

Good news has been swirling around the housing market lately.

The Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that sales of new U.S. homes surged 9.6% in July.

A week before, the National Association of Realtors reported that previously-owned home sales in July jumped at the fastest rate in 10 years.

Realtors are now reminding us that sales have risen for four consecutive months. Thanks to low interest rates and government incentives, they tell us, housing prices will soon be heading back up.

Don’t bet on it…

I was in real estate for years. Asking my colleagues whether prices were likely to head higher was like asking the Army Corp of Engineers whether a river needed a bridge.

The answer was a foregone conclusion.

In many ways, this is understandable. Real estate agents

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U.S. stocks advanced on Wednesday after data showed July new home sales rose at their fastest pace in almost a year, while durable goods orders increased, but less than forecast excluding transportation.

Sales of new homes rose for a fourth straight month in July and at their fastest pace since September 2008, while the inventory of unsold homes fell to the lowest level in 16 years, the government reported.

“These are great numbers, and they should definitely add fuel to the move higher in the market,” said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Equity Markets in Jersey City, New Jersey.

“It’s all very positive, not just because of the macro implications but because they will drive consumer confidence numbers (higher).”

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> added 19.57 points, or 0.21 percent, to 9,558.86. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index <.SPX> rose 2.15 points, or 0.21 percent, to 1,030.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC>

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Even as investors get more and more bullish about the outlook for the U.S. economy, the economy’s underlying foundation continues to erode.

In a report to be released this week, the Obama administration will boost its 10-year projection for the federal budget deficit to about $9 trillion – an increase of roughly $2 trillion, or 29%, from its prior projection, Fox News reported over the weekend, citing a source from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).

The new cumulative deficit projection – for 2010-2019 – replaces the administration’s previous estimate of $7.108 trillion. Changes in budget projections – whether they result in a surplus or a deficit – are often refined as economic conditions change. This new projection was necessary because the recession has gone on for so long, causing federal tax receipts to plunge – and because the economic rebound will be prolonged and weak, resulting

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At the end of the second quarter, 4.3% of all residential mortgages were in some part of the foreclosure process, up from 3.85% at the end of the first quarter and 2.75% a year ago. In addition, on a seasonally adjusted basis, 9.24% of all mortgages were delinquent (behind by at least one payment), up from 9.12% at the end of March, and just 6.41% at the end of June 2008. Both were records since the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) started keeping track back in 1972. On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, the delinquency rate was not quite as bad at 8.86%, but still a record. That means that 13.16% of all residential mortgages (NSA basis) are in trouble. With about 51 million houses with mortgages in the country, that means 6.71 million bad mortgages out there. With the number of people out of work still rising, the problem is ...

Inflation-Proof Savings Account Could Pay 100% “Interest” this Year Euro Pacific Capital President Peter G. Schiff has identified a savings account that could yield 100% interest between now and the end of the year. It’s much safer than a regular account, and fully insured by Lloyd’s of London. Since every dollar of your savings is fully backed by gold bullion held in specialized vaults outside of Zurich, you could easily double your money as gold prices rise. And that means it’s a great way to protect your money from inflation, a falling dollar, geopolitical instability and even government stupidity! Go here for Schiff’s complete report.

By Bob Blandeburgo

Associate Editor

Money Morning

Prices for single-family and condominium homes in the second quarter fell by a record 15.6% and 19.8% year-over-year in the United States, mainly due to foreclosures.

While the data taken on a national average may be disheartening, the …

The U.S. Housing Market: Three (More) Reasons Real Estate Isn’t Rebounding

by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist

Editor’s Note: Yesterday we heard from Martin Denholm, the managing editor at Smart Profits, one of our affiliate publications which will be joining us over the next few weeks. We’ll be adding their experts to our esteemed panelists to give you the best investing ideas and advice out there. Today we follow Martin with outspoken favorite, Louis Basenese, who also gives us his take and concern for investors, on the housing market.

If ever an off-the-wall indicator existed to predict the fate of the U.S. housing market, I found it… You see, business is booming in one particular niche of the real estate industry - shrink-wrap.

That’s right. Contractors and developers are wrapping mothballed building projects in plastic, literally - from single-family homes to 25,000 square foot commercial properties.

The beneficiary? Privately-held Fast Wrap

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While politicians, talking heads, and bloggers blab about the causes of the mortgage crisis, Stan Liebowitz of the University of Texas lays out why they’re all dead wrong in today’s Wall Street Journal.

Rather than subprime or lair loans being the culprits, Mr. Liebowitz illustrates that zero equity lead to the mortgage meltdown.

The evidence from a huge national database containing millions of individual loans strongly suggests that the single most important factor is whether the homeowner has negative equity in a house — that is, the balance of the mortgage is greater than the value of the house. This means that most government policies being discussed to remedy woes in the housing market are misdirected.

Many policy makers and ordinary people blame the rise of foreclosures squarely on subprime mortgage lenders who presumably misled borrowers into taking out complex loans at low initial interest rates. Those hapless individuals were then supposedly

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