New research by Morgan Stanley Europe and Merrill Lynch Asia confirms old moving average based research by Stan Weinstein that the on-going upswing in the S&P 500 and other market indices around the world quite possibly has much further to go in this current bull run albeit with some volatility along the way. That could well have negative implications for the short-term price of gold bullion but, fortunately for the ‘gold bugs’ to be found in every room, continuing bright prospects for the stocks and warrants of gold and silver mining and royalty companies are expected.

Below is this week’s table showing the relatively poor performance of gold YTD (albeit not so for silver!) as compared to the HUI, GDM and CDNX in spite of closing above $1000 for the second consecutive week. Also note that the relatively unknown and misunderstood asset class of long-term warrants associated with commodity-related companies …

The debate rages on as to whether global stocks markets have turned the corner and are in the early stages of a new secular bull market, or whether we are experiencing a secondary bear market rally (or cyclical bull phase) within a primary bear market.

Although I am not a big proponent of averaging data across multi-year cycles, an analysis of the various stages of a typical secular bear market by Teun Draaisma and the strategy team of Morgan Stanley Europe nevertheless provides food for thought. The chart below shows what a typical secular bear market looks like based on the average of the past 19 major bear markets around the globe.

Considering the aggregate data, the team summarized their findings as follows:

“Each involved a peak-to-trough decline of at least 40% lasting