This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Paul Krugman (The New York Times): Interest rates: the phantom menace, November 20, 2009. Well, what I hear is that officials don’t trust the demand for long-term government debt, because they see it as driven by a “carry trade”: financial players borrowing cheap money short-term, and using it to buy long-term bonds. They fear that the whole thing could evaporate if long-term rates start to rise, imposing capital losses on the people doing the carry trade; this could, they believe, drive rates way up, even though this possibility doesn’t seem to be priced in by the market. What’s wrong with this picture?

• Michael Panzner (Financial Armageddon): Economists: wrong again, November 21, 2009. As if they didn’t cause enough

Asia has proven comparatively resilient against the current downturn, but hurdles still lie ahead. In order to maintain robust growth rates in the face of weak US demand, the region’s dynamic economies must stoke domestic consumption and embrace environmentally sustainable development policies. So says Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and author of The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization.  Clay Chandler, Asia editor with McKinsey’s publishing group, spoke to Roach in Hong Kong.

Source: Clay Chandler, McKinsey Quarterly, November 13, 2009.

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Charlie Rose sits down with Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and author of the new book The Next Asia - Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization, and discusses China. Roach has been based in China for the past three years and describes why he loves it and what he has learned. A link to the transcript of the interview follows at the end of the post.

Click here or on the image below to view the video. (As there is no direct link to the clip, you need to click on “Archive” on the Charlie Rose site, and then scroll down to the Roach video of October 23.)

Click here for a transcript of the interview.

Source: Charlie Rose, October 23, 2009.

The Economist’s Buttonwood Gathering, a conference bringing together global regulators and bankers to discuss and debate new ideas and develop a new set of guidelines moving forward, has just taken place in New York. Michael Panzer, writer of the Financial Armageddon blog and author of “Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse”, was in attendance and has kindly shared some of the more interesting quotes on his blog, as reported below.

Secretary Tim Geithner, United States Department of the Treasury:

“Generally, we did not do enough.” (Referring to the failure to address growing concerns over excessive risk-taking in the period leading up to the financial crisis.) [Editor's note: understatement of the year?]

Stephen Roach, Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia:

Those who are looking for a “V”-shaped recovery are in for “a rude awakening.”

“The imbalances going into the crisis were large to begin with.

This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find interesting.

• John Authers (Financial Times): Triumph of common sense over benchmarks, October 3, 2009. Rather than watch everyone herd towards benchmarks, while charging fees for active management, in future perhaps a lot of money will be managed passively and the rest will be allocated to investors who can show they have skill, and who have the freedom to go wherever they believe they can profit.

• Randall Forsyth (Barron’s): Is this a real bull or “Red Bull” market? October 2, 2009. After the caffeine rush of the third quarter, stocks and Treasuries give way to less stimulating market action.

• Paul Krugman (The New York Times): Mission not accomplished, October 2, 2009. Stocks are up. Ben

This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest.

• Richard Thaler (Financial Times): Markets can be wrong and the price is not always right, August 4, 2009. The “efficient market hypothesis” has been a fact of life for economists. Among other things, it says that asset prices will fully reflect available information; and that it is hard for any investor to beat the market after taking risk into account. Has the last year changed how it is viewed.

• Eric Uhlfelder (Advisor Perspectives): Paul Krugman on prospects of recovery, August 4, 2009.

• Economist.com: A concrete problem, July 30, 2009. Banks face another round of property-related bad debts: this time it will be flashy offices, not rundown homes.

• Frank Hornig,

The holiday-shortened week saw investors pondering the depth of the economic rabbit-hole. As investors vacillated, most financial markets were characterized by a roller-coaster ride. Friday’s worse-than-expected jobs data left no doubt that the economy was in recession.

The highlights of the week’s discussions were captured on video and are included in this video-o-rama compilation. Strutting their stuff was a star-studded cast including the likes of George Soros, Hugh Hendry, Dan Greenhaus, Paul Krugman, Bill Gross, Nassim Taleb, Jeff Immelt, Stephen Roach, Bob Prechter and Marc Faber.

As an aside, the weather in Europe - where I am spending two weeks with my family in Slovenia and Switzerland - has been characterized of late by endless thunderstorms. Strikingly, the economic mood is no less despondent than that of the holiday-makers trying to escape the ominous dark clouds. But wait, is that a forecast for better days ahead?

Elsewhere, the jail

The financial debate during the past few days was dominated by President Obama’s sweeping revamp of financial market supervision, and this issue also occupies a number of slots in today’s Video-o-rama.

But it was not all about regulation, as pundits were also trying to figure out whether there were in fact economic “green shoots” and what the implications for financial markets might be. Commentators include Michael Lewis, John Rogers, Robert Kleinschmidt, Jack Welch, Barry Ritholtz, Nouriel Roubini, Stephen Roach, Mario Gabelli and George Friedman.

The compilation kicks off with author Michael Lewis discussing his article “The End of Wall Street”, and concludes with a fascinating analysis of the Iranian situation by George Friedman of Stratfor, geopolitical analysts.

You Tube: Michael Lewis - the end of Wall Street? “Author Michael Lewis discusses how his experience working at Salomon Brothers and writing Liar’s Poker influenced his article, ‘The End of Wall

Is what we are experiencing with the economy the beginning of the ‘Economic Armageddon’ that Stephen Roach forecast for the U.S. in November 2004? This is what he said (and I paraphrase):

America’s record trade deficit means the dollar will keep falling, interest rates will rise further and U.S. consumers, in debt up to their eyeballs, will get pounded with no better than a 10% chance of avoiding economic Armageddon.

A lot has happened since then. The U.S. Dollar index did keep falling but then rose considerably in 2008 with the financial crisis; interest rates did rise further before dropping precipitously in 2008; but, thankfully, we appear to have avoided economic Armageddon thanks to aggressive moves by the Fed back in September/October 2008. That was 2004 and this is 2009. Back then Mr. Roach was Managing Director, Chief Economist, and Director of Global Economic Analysis of Morgan Stanley; today …

Back in December, with the U.S. recession in its 12th month – and showing no signs of abating – Money Morning Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson warned that an “L”-shaped recession was very possible.

The U.S. recession is now in its 15th month, and many economists now expect the downturn to last until 2010 – if not longer. In fact, some economists now say the U.S. malaise could easily evolve into the virulent “L-shaped” downturn that Hutchinson predicted – a development that would guarantee both the maximum pain and the slowest recovery, experts say.

“I said in December that the recession could be ‘bloody-L shaped.’ With the huge deficits, that now looks the most likely outcome – and believe me when I say that it will be very bloody,” Hutchinson said this week. “The economy will bottom quite soon, but every time it tries to