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Baselines, Counterfactuals and the Stimulus

Menzie Chinn (November 21st, 2009) Writes:

Apropos the post on evaluating the impact of the stimulus, here is graphical depiction of what IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisers, and Moody's predicted under the counterfactual of no stimulus against the w/stimulus outlook (from NYT).

globalinsight_MAD_Moodys.jpg Source: J. Calmes and M. Cooper, "New Consensus Sees Stimulus Package as Worthy Step," NYT (Nov. 21, 2009).
Tags for this Post:
Economics, Investing Lessons, Moody's

Moody’s Cuts UBS Ratings – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (November 19th, 2009) Writes:
Moody's Investors Service has cut various ratings on UBS AG (UBS) pointing out the significant challenges the company continues to face in its Investment Banking and Wealth Management businesses.  Moody's has downgraded the bank financial strength rating and the long-term debt and deposit ratings of UBS AG. The bank financial strength rating was lowered two notches to C from B-, while its deposits and senior debt ratings were lowered to Aa3 from Aa2. The ratings for senior subordinated debt were slashed to A1 from Aa3. The outlook for all ratings is negative implying that further downgrades are possible over the next 12 to 18 months.   Moody’s has expressed its concern over the loss of customer confidence, which is reflected by the ongoing net fund money outflows in the wealth management business. Also a number of key employees have left the organization that resulted in a significant ...

Company News for November 10, 2009 – Corporate Summary

Zacks Market Commentaries (November 10th, 2009) Writes:

• Priceline.com (NASDAQ:PCLN) reported adjusted third quarter earnings of $3.45 a share, 55 cents above consensus estimates, on better-than-expected revenues of $730.7 million, ahead of estimates of $$693.97 million on strong summer season travel. The firm provided fourth quarter guidance at about $1.06-$1.16

• Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS) said it plans to cut 1500 additional jobs. The firm reported second quarter adjusted earnings of 6 cents, a one penny miss, on revenues of $1.15 billion, which slightly topped Street projections of $1.12 billion. The firm forecast 2010 earnings of $0.70-$1.00, topping estimates of 89 cents on revenues of $4.2-$4.4 billion versus estimates of $4.26 billion

• Cadbury (NYSE:CBY) rejected the latest Kraft (NYSE:KFT) bid calling it "derisory"

• Moody's (NYSE:MCO) commented that AIG (NYSE:AIG) will be able to repay its Federal loans

• Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) lifted its growth expectations for the semiconductor group following release of third quarter numbers. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) remained its first

...

Company News for October 29, 2009 – Corporate Summary

Zacks Market Commentaries (October 29th, 2009) Writes:

• Aetna (NYSE:AET) reported third quarter earnings of 69 cents a share, 3 cents better than Zacks estimates, on revenues of $8.72 billion, up 14.4%.  The company sees full year earnings of $2.75 a share

• OfficeMax (NYSE:OMX) posted third quarter earnings of 8 cents, 6 cents below Zacks estimates on inline revenues of $1.83 billion, down 12.6%. The firm issued cautious guidance, anticipating macro employment trends will not turn positive well into 2010

• Nintendo (NASDAQ:NTDOY) posted first half profits off 52% to $768 million, while sales dropped 34.5%. The company slashed its dividend for the first half by 37%

• Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) reported third quarter earnings of 79 cents a share, 24 cents above Zacks estimates, as revenues of $2.05 billion, up 49.5%, bested Zacks estimates of $1.78 billion

• Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) reported a 73% drop in net profit, with earnings ex-items of $2.62 billion slightly ahead of estimates

...

Southwest’s Ratings Go South – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (October 16th, 2009) Writes:
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services has lowered its ratings on Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV), lowering the debt ratings to 'BBB' from 'BBB+’ and placing it with negative implications. However, Southwest has retained its investment grade rating. The downgrade reflects lower operating cash flow caused by record high fuel prices, low global demand for air travel and weak prices. The travel downturn has eroded the airline's flow of cash at a time when the airline faces substantial fixed obligations and declining cash balances. Southwest's cash balance fell to $902 million in the third quarter from $1.4 billion at the end of 2008. Recently, Southwest borrowed $124 million under a new term loan agreement secured by five Boeing 737-700 aircrafts. It also replaced its previous $600 million unsecured revolving credit facility with a new $600 million unsecured revolving credit facility that will expire in Oct. 2012. The rating ...

Moody’s Downgrades Boeing – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (October 15th, 2009) Writes:

Moody’s Investor Services (MCO) has downgraded Boeing Co.’s (BA) rating outlook to "negative" from "stable". The major reason for the downgrade was the delay in the airplane maker's new 787 series, besides other setbacks that had hurt its financial flexibility.   Pitted against Airbus’s A319 aircraft, Boeing’s 787 series is plagued by delays. The inaugural test flight at the end of fiscal 2009 is more than two years behind the original delivery schedule. The company has already deferred the inaugural delivery of the 787 series aircraft five times.   Boeing has witnessed falling orders in the recent times for its commercial planes on account of tepid demand for air travel and cargo services. Already, a slew of commercial airlines have cancelled or deferred their fleet additions. Boeing has cut costs and announced reduction in its workforce along with scaling back production of some aircrafts. Moody's estimates a 20%

...

Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Moody’s Investor Services, American Tower Corp, Crown Castle International, SBA Communications Corp and US Airways – Press Releases

Zacks Market Commentaries (October 7th, 2009) Writes:

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – October 7, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Moody’s Investor Services (MCO), American Tower Corp (AMT), Crown Castle International (CCI), SBA Communications Corp (SBAC) and US Airways (LCC).

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5513

Here are highlights from Tuesday’s Analyst Blog:

Moody's Upgrades American Tower

Moody’s Investor Services (MCO) has upgraded the rating of American Tower Corp (AMT) senior unsecured debt. So far, this paper has been given a “Ba1" rating by Moody’s which implies a junk corporate rating and probability of

...

Moody’s Upgrades American Tower – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (October 6th, 2009) Writes:
Moody’s Investor Services (MCO) has upgraded the rating of American Tower Corp’s (AMT) senior unsecured debt. So far, this paper has been given a “Ba1" rating by Moody’s which implies a junk corporate rating and probability of default rating. Now Moody’s has raised its rating to “Baa3," implying its lowest investment-grade rating. Major reasons for this debt rating upgrade were the company’s strong operating performance, increased cash flow and reduced debt over the past two years. American Tower accounts for most of its revenue from long-term (typically 5-10 year) tower leases with major wireless carriers. In addition, the company provides on-site maintenance and servicing of antennas, amplifiers and base-station equipment as it relates to leasing. This generates a strong long-term lease up-cycle. The revenue generated from leasing and management of such networks is impressive, and over 95% is recurring in nature. Yearly revenue increased ...

Wilmington Trust (WL) – Bear of the Day

Zacks Market Commentaries (October 6th, 2009) Writes:
Wilmington Trust's (WL) second-quarter earnings came in ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate, aided by strong growth in client services business and improvement in net interest margin. However, credit quality deteriorated drastically during the reported quarter.

In 2009, both S&P and Moody's lowered their outlooks on the company to negative and downgraded the ratings based on concerns related to its real estate lending concentration. Though loan growth has been impressive relative to many of its peers in the past, the pace of growth has started to moderate in the last few quarters.

We expect the pace to slow down further in the near to medium-term, based on the ongoing weakness in the economy. Thus, we are maintaining our Underperform recommendation.Zacks Investment Research

Willis Tender Offer Results – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (October 2nd, 2009) Writes:
Willis North America Inc., a subsidiary of Willis Group Holdings Limited (WSH), today announced the final results of its cash tender offer to purchase any and all of its 5.125% senior notes due 2010.

The net proceeds from the offer came to $159,788,000. All of the 2010 notes that were tendered have been guaranteed for payment by Willis. The holders of the 2010 notes will be entitled to receive tender offer consideration of $1,027.50 per $1,000 principal amount of the 2010 notes, plus any accrued and unpaid interest.

The notes, which are guaranteed by Willis Group Holdings, carry ratings of Baa3 by Moody's and BBB- by S&P.

Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) were the joint book running managers for the sale.

Willis intends to use the net proceeds from this offering to purchase any and all of Willis North America's outstanding 5.125% senior notes due 2010 that

...

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