Stock Market News & Stocks to Watch from StraightStocks » Monsanto

Monsanto Confirms Guidance – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 18:00:02 +0000

At its investor conference call, Monsanto Company (MON) indicated that it will accelerate launches for its Genuity SmartStax corn and Genuity Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybean products. The company emphasized its growth strategy from 2010 through 2012, which includes three operational imperatives: the conversion to Genuity SmartStax in U.S. corn, the upgradation to the Genuity Roundup Ready 2 Yield platform in U.S. soybeans, and increased penetration in Latin America.

Monsanto now anticipates its new Genuity SmartStax corn seed will launch on more than 4 million acres in 2010, compared to its previous expectation of 3 million to 4 million acres. As a part of the accelerated adoption of Genuity SmartStax, the company unveiled a new portfolio of product upgrades for key U.S. corn segments.

For the Genuity Roundup Ready 2 Yield platform in U.S. soybeans, Monsanto increased its launch-year expectation for 2010 to 8 - 10 million acres, compared to its previous projection of 7 - 8 million.

These launches, along with increased penetration in Latin America, are expected create opportunities for the company to meet its 2012 financial and commercial targets.

Monsanto is committed to doubling its gross profit by 2012 from 2007 levels. The company expects 2012 gross profit of $8.6 - $8.8 billion, including $7.3 - $7.5 billion from the Seeds and Genomics platform.

Monsanto reaffirmed fiscal year 2010 EPS guidance in the range of $3.10 - $3.30. Also, the company is confident of achieving its free cash flow target of $900 million to $1 billion for fiscal year 2010. The Zacks Consensus Earnings Estimate for fiscal 2010 is $3.27.
Read the full analyst report on "MON"
Zacks Investment Research

Company News for November 11, 2009 – Corporate Summary

Zacks Market Commentaries — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:50:13 +0000

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) added Cytec Industries (NYSE:CYT) to its Conviction Sell List, with a target of $31. The analyst warned of the bleak outlook for the late-cycle aerospace industry, and economic uncertainties in Europe, which represents 40% of sales

• JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) plans to reinstate 401K matching programs starting with 2009 as well as plans to hire 1,200 mortgage officers

• Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) CEO Bartz said the company is hiring again as the firm expects to increase its operating profit margin to the 15-20% range on cost cutting and sales growth

• Adobe Systems (NASDAQ:ADBE) said it plans to cut 680 jobs, or about 9% of its workforce, as part of a restructuring plan. The company said the move would result in pre-tax charges of $65 million to $71 million, with $18 million to $20 million to be taken in the fourth quarter

• Monsanto (NYSE:MON) confirmed its full-year 2010 earnings outlook and said it still sees a 2012 gross profit of at least $8.6 billion, claiming an accelerated launch of new corn and soybean products

• Bond insurer, Ambac Financial Group (NYSE:ABK) warned of a possible bankruptcy protection filing in its 10-Q

• Reports said General Electric (NYSE:GE) is in talks with United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) to sell its security systems unit for over $1.5 billion

• Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) upgraded Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) with a price target range of $24-$26

• Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) upgraded Smithfield Foods (NYSE:SFD) raising the price target from $12 to $20 due to an improving pork market

• Flowers Foods (NYSE:FLO) reported inline earnings of 34 cents a share on revenues of $603 million, off Zacks estimates of $617 million

Zacks Investment Research

Monsanto Wins New Contract – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 21:09:13 +0000

Monsanto Company (MON) has signed a long-term supply contract with Air Products (APD), the leading global hydrogen provider. According to the contract, Air Products will build a new world-scale hydrogen production plant to be located at Monsanto's Luling, Louisiana, Roundup facility. The new hydrogen plant is scheduled to be on-stream in Jan 2012.

Air Products will build a steam methane reformer (SMR) producing over 100 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD) of hydrogen. The SMR will be connected to Air Products' East Gulf Coast pipeline network, which supplies refineries with hydrogen needed to make cleaner burning transportation fuels, in addition to meeting the hydrogen needs of the local petrochemical industry. In addition, the facility will produce additional hydrogen via a clean-up of a hydrogen-rich off-gas feed coming from Monsanto. Monsanto will use steam from Air Products' SMR process to benefit its Roundup production plant.

This agreement is a win-win for Monsanto as it will help reduce natural gas usage to make steam, which will in turn help serve its farmer customers in a more environmentally sustainable manner.

Monsanto Company is a leading global provider of technology-based solutions and agricultural products that improve farm productivity and food quality. Monsanto remains focused on enabling both small-holding and large-scale farmers to maximize production from their land while conserving more of our world's natural resources such as water and energy. The company’s direct competitor is Syngenta AG (SYT).
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Read the full analyst report on "SYT"
Zacks Investment Research

Monsanto Beats and Reaffirms – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:22:27 +0000

Today before the market opened, Monsanto Co. (MON), the largest chemicals and biotech seed maker reported results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2009, ended August 31, 2009.

Excluding one-time items (on an ongoing basis), the company reported earnings of 2 cents per share, compared to a loss of 3 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. This was above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 1 cent per share.

However, the company posted a wider loss in the quarter, which increased to 43 cents per share on an as-reported basis, from 31 cents in the year-ago quarter, due to restructuring charges and the divestiture of the company's sunflower operations. Restructuring lowered earnings by 53 cents.

During the quarter, the company also increased the restructuring reserve to the $550 - $600 million range to support its cost-cutting effort. SG&A as a percentage of revenue was 25% in the quarter versus 35% in the year-ago quarter.

Total revenue fell 8.4% to $1.88 billion from the year-ago quarter, primarily due to a fall in sales of the company’s Roundup and other glyphosate-based herbicides business. This business has been negatively impacted by severe pricing pressure and supply-demand imbalance, offset by higher sales of corn seeds and traits, as well as higher sales of vegetable seeds.

The Seeds and Genomics segment posted sales of $908 million, down 3.5% year over year, and accounted for 48.3% of the total revenue in the quarter, while sales for the Agricultural Productivity segment were $971 million, down 12.5% from the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008. The segment is responsible for the remaining 51.7% of total revenue.

For the full year 2009, Monsanto revenue growth was driven by higher worldwide corn seed and traits revenue, increased soybean seed and traits revenue in the United States, and higher cotton seed and traits revenue driven by higher trait penetration in India and increased acres in Australia. Increased revenue from the company's vegetable seed portfolio also contributed to good results in the year.

Guidance Reaffirmed

For fiscal 2010, Monsanto affirmed its prior guidance of $3.10 to $3.30 per share on an ongoing basis, based on expectations of continued progress in the seeds and traits, cotton and vegetable products.

The company also re-iterated guidance for free cash flow for fiscal year 2010, which is expected to be in the range of $900 million to $1 billion, including the after-tax cash effect from the restructuring of approximately $250 million. The company expects net cash provided by operating activities to be $2 billion to $2.2 billion for fiscal year 2010.

As a result of growing competition and pricing pressure in its herbicide business, Monsanto has been shifting its focus to its highly profitable seeds and traits, which are targeted to account for 85% of Monsanto's business in 2012 and expected to cross the $5 billion gross profit mark for the first time in 2010.
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Zacks Investment Research

Earnings Preview for Oct 5 – 9 – Earnings Preview

Charles Rotblut — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 05:00:00 +0000

Third-quarter earnings season officially starts on Wednesday afternoon with Alcoa's (AA) report. The aluminum maker is expected to announce revenues of $4.5 billion and a loss of 11 cents per share. The results will look awful compared to last year because the commodity bubble peaked in Q308.

Joining AA will be 6 other S&P 500 members: Costco (COST), Family Dollar (FDO), Marriott (MAR), Monsanto (MON), Pepsi Bottling (PBG), PepsiCo (PEP) and Yum! Brands (YUM). We have confirmed scheduled reports from a total of 24 companies.

Economic data will largely take a backseat to the earnings news. There is comparatively little on the calendar, with the most newsworthy release being the September ISM services index. The weekly energy and mortgage applications reports could still influence trading, however.

Monday: September ISM services survey
Wednesday: August consumer credit, September treasury budget, weekly crude inventories, weekly mortgage applications
Thursday: August wholesale inventories, weekly initial jobless claims, weekly natural gas inventories
Friday: August trade balance

The Fed will hold a conference in Washington D.C. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will provide an update of the Fed's balance sheet on Tuesday evening. Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn will talk about the Fed's response to the financial crisis on Thursday at 12:15 p.m.

Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig will make 2 speeches this week. On Tuesday evening, he will appear at an economic forum in Denver. On Thursday evening, he will speak at a similar forum in Oklahoma City.

A 10-year TIPS auction will be held on Monday, a 10-year Treasury note auction will be held on Wednesday and a 30-year Treasury bond auction will be held on Thursday. Overall, the Treasury Department will sell $78 billion in securities this week. Recent auctions have been oversubscribed, signaling strong demand.

After this week's pullback, the markets will be seeking direction. The Dow was trading near the first line of support on Friday morning, though further downside is a possibility. How revenues, earnings and guidance fare relative to expectations will play a role in influencing market direction.

Keep in mind that the majority of earnings reports won't be released until the latter part of the month.

Third-Quarter Earnings

The median S&P 500 company is forecast to report a 15% drop in profits and a 6.9% drop in revenues. (On an average company basis, EPS should drop 36.2% and revenues should fall 9.4%. The average numbers look worse due to the influence of outliers, or companies projected to report very large year-over-year drops.)

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

PepsiCo (PEP) has topped expectations for 2 consecutive quarters by an average margin of 3 cents per share. Though the third-quarter Zacks Consensus Estimate is unchanged at $1.03 per share, a recent revision by 1 brokerage analyst has resulted in a most accurate estimate of $1.04 per share. PepsiCo is scheduled to report on Thursday, Oct 8, before the start of trading.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

Concerns about lower demand for fertilizer prompted 3 analysts to cut their fiscal first-quarter profit projections on Mosaic (MOS) in recent weeks. The downward revisions have pushed the Zacks Consensus Estimate 4 cents lower to 33 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is more bearish at 22 cents per share. MOS has missed expectations twice in the past 4 quarters. Mosaic is scheduled to report on Monday, Oct 5, after the close of trading.

Charles Rotblut, CFA is the senior market analyst for Zacks.com.

Earnings Calendar

Here is a list of companies that we have confirmed will report during the week of Oct 5 - 9. Prices are as of Thursday's, Oct 1, market close.

Company	Stock	Zacks Estimate	Year Ago EPS	Last Qtr Surprise	Date	Time	Price
Mosaic Co/The	MOS	$0.33	$2.65	230.0%	10/5	AMC	$46.43
Robbins & Myers	RBN	$0.20	$0.74	4.0%	10/5	AMC	$23.01
Rpm Intl Inc	RPM	$0.44	$0.54	(2.3%)	10/5	BTO	$17.88
Team Inc	TISI	$0.11	$0.25	31.8%	10/5	AMC	$16.80
Angiodynamics	ANGO	$0.08	$0.09	(6.7%)	10/6	AMC	$13.75
Chattem Inc	CHTT	$1.21	$1.08	4.1%	10/6	BTO	$64.90
Pepsi Bottling	PBG	$1.08	$1.06	6.8%	10/6	BTO	$36.49
Yum! Brands Inc	YUM	$0.59	$0.58	16.28%	10/6	AMC	$33.13
Acuity Brands	AYI	$0.57	$1.02	(5.3%)	10/7	BTO	$31.16
Alcoa Inc	AA	($0.11)	$0.37	31.6%	10/7	AMC	$12.92
Costco Whole Cp	COST	$0.76	$0.92	(3.7%)	10/7	BTO	$55.69
Family Dollar	FDO	$0.41	$0.38	5.1%	10/7	BTO	$26.84
Helen Of Troy	HELE	$0.39	$0.34	34.3%	10/7	BTO	$18.70
Kayne Andsn Egy	KED	$0.22	N/A	N/A	10/7	AMC	$13.22
Monsanto Co-New	MON	$0.01	($0.03)	6.8%	10/7	BTO	$75.11
Richardson Elec	RELL	$0.04	$0.20	(90.9%)	10/7	AMC	$5.00
Ruby Tuesday	RT	$0.10	$0.01	40.0%	10/7	AMC	$7.76
Wolverine World	WWW	$0.55	$0.62	3.8%	10/7	BTO	$24.21
Infosys Tec-Adr	INFY	$0.50	$0.56	17.0%	10/8	AMC	$47.25
Intl Speedway	ISCA	$0.38	$0.73	12.9%	10/8	BTO	$27.25
Marriott Intl-A	MAR	$0.13	$0.34	9.5%	10/8	BTO	$26.36
Nu Horizons Ele	NUHC	($0.01)	$0.01	50.0%	10/8	AMC	$3.96
PepsiCo Inc	PEP	$1.03	$1.06	2.0%	10/8	BTO	$58.46
Tortoise Cap Rs	TTO	($0.01)	($0.04)	(81.3%)	10/9	N/A	$6.56

BTO = Before The Market Open, AMC = After The Market Close

Zacks Investment Research

Company News for September 10, 2009 – Corporate Summary

Zacks Market Commentaries — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 14:19:03 +0000

• McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), reported August same-store-sales rose 2.2%, but noted US comps were up a less-than-expected 1.7%, noting rising unemployment levels and increased competition from price-cutting rivals hurt revenues

• Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) San Francisco event once again saw the shares move lower, this year off 1%, despite the welcome appearance of Jobs, and iPod price cuts and improvements. An 8 GB iPod Nano will include built-in video and an FM radio; price cuts of as much as $120 were made. This morning JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) upped its rating on Apple to "outperform" from "market perform," with a $200 price target

• Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) raised its third quarter earnings and sales guidance, with third quarter guidance increased to 37 cents to 41 cents a share from prior range of 29 cents to 39 cents a share; revenues guidance was lifted to $2.73 billion to $2.87 billion from prior $2.5 billion to $2.8 billion, with estimates at $$2.68 billion

• Vivus (NASDAQ:VVUS) noted its experimental obesity drug showed dramatic results in two late-stage clinical trials

• Disney (NYSE:DIS) reported improvements in local ad markets with increased activity from automakers nationally, although still anticipating lower theme park hotel bookings for the September quarter

• Monsanto (NYSE:MON) said it continues to see 2009 results from continuing operations at the lower end of its prior guidance of $4.40-$4.50; the Street has expected $4.41. For 2010 the company expects $3.10-$3.30, off consensus estimates of $4.12

• Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) shares were upgraded by Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) to "buy," with a price target hike to $19 from $17

• BP (NYSE:BP) shares were lowered to "neutral" by analysts at HSBC (NYSE:HBC). The company's Tiber Field, last week's "giant discovery" 9km beneath the Gulf seabed, is unofficially estimated to contain 500m-1 billion recoverable barrels of oil

Zacks Investment Research

DOW’s SmartStax Wins Approval – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 17:30:24 +0000

Michigan-based chemical giant Dow Chemical (DOW) announced that its agricultural arm Dow AgroSciences has received regulatory approvals in the U.S. and Canada to launch its genetically modified (GM) corn seed – SmartStax. The all-in-one corn trait platform is scheduled for a commercial launch in 2010.

SmartStax is a high-yielding package for weed and bug control in corn. It features a unique combination of insect control traits that significantly reduces the risk of resistance for pests both above and below ground. It also protects the crop from being damaged by some weed and grass control chemicals. The GM seed combines as many as 8 different herbicide tolerance and pest protection genes.

SmartStax is jointly developed and marketed by Dow AgroSciences and Missouri-based agricultural solutions provider Monsanto (MON) following a cross licensing and research and development collaboration agreement in 2007.

SmartStax has received registration from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and regulatory authorization from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA). The registration will enable farmers to reduce the structured farm refuge from 20% to 5% for SmartStax in the U.S. Corn Belt and Canada, and from 50% to 20% of the U.S. Cotton Belt.

The refuge area in a farm is land set apart by law for wild and non-mutant insects to mate with possible resistant insects, producing nonresistant insects. Thus, crops planted in the refuge area have no inherent insect protection, so bugs can feed in that area and not evolve around the insect protection. Previously, the U.S. farmers had been permitted to plant biotech seeds with insect protection in about 80% of cultivated acreage, but regulations required about 20% of refuge area.

Now, the 5% refuge for SmartStax will increase the corn yield by 5%–10%. This is because the GM seed has multiple modes of action that reduces the probability of insect resistance, thereby reducing the refuge requirement. Consequently, farmers using SmartStax will benefit from increased productivity due to improved pest protection and a reduced refuge.

Both Dow and Monsanto commented that the new GM seed technology will be offered to farmers on 3 million to 4 million plus acres in its first year of availability. Within the next 5 to 6 years, it is expected to be used by farmers on 50 million to 65 million acres. The two companies are also seeking regulatory approval for SmartStax in Mexico, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

We continue to recommend Dow as a Hold with a six-month target price of $15.00.
Read the full analyst report on "DOW"
Read the full analyst report on "MON"
Zacks Investment Research

Company News for June 26, 2009 – Corporate Summary

Zacks Market Commentaries — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 14:29:58 +0000

* JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) upgraded shares of Sallie Mae (NYSE:SLM) to "overweight," citing improved earnings visibility from its transition to primarily a loan service providers, which will lower interest-rate and funding risks

* Quantas Airlines cancelled orders for 15 Boeing (NYSE:BA) 787 Dreamliners scheduled for 2014-2015 delivery, and deferred orders for 15 more, citing the tough economic environment

* Potash (NYSE:POT) lowered its earnings guidance for the second quarter from $1.10-$1.50 to 70 cents, citing substantially lower than expected potash sales volume on deferrals by its global customers and lower realized prices for phosphate fertilizers

* UBS (NYSE:UBS) warned of a second quarter net loss, announcing $3.48 billion in capital-raising with a 293.3 million share offering at $11.91, a 6.9% discount to yesterday's close

* Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) lowered its 2010 earnings estimate and price target on Monsanto (NYSE:MON), citing lower glyphosate profits and lower seed price gains. The 2010 estimate was cut 50 cents to $4.30, and 45 cents for 2011 to $4.65, with the price target lowered to $80. The firm held its "neutral" rating

Zacks Investment Research

Zacks Earnings Preview: Oracle, Micron, Monsanto, Bank of America, KB Home, Lennar and CKE Restaurants – Press Releases

Zacks Market Commentaries — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 13:53:23 +0000

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL - June 22, 2009 - Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week's list includes Oracle (ORCL), Micron (MU), Monsanto (MON), Bank of America (BAC), KB Home (KBH), Lennar (LEN) and CKE Restaurants (CKR). To see more earnings analysis, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=3207.

Every day, Zacks.com makes 4 stock picks available, free of charge. To see them, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5612.

The Week's Events

We'll see another round of early second-quarter results this week. A total of 42 companies are scheduled to report, including 14 S&P 500 members. Oracle (ORCL), Micron (MU) and Monsanto (MON) will be among the mostly closely-watched reports.

The Fed will also grab traders' attention. A 2-day meeting is scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. No change in interest rates is expected, but traders will be listening for an update on the Fed's debt purchase program. The statement should also allude to signs of improvement in economic conditions.

On Thursday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will again be in the spotlight. Bernanke will testify before a House committee about Bank of America's (BAC) acquisition of Merrill Lynch.

Housing data headlines the economic calendar. The release of new and existing homes sales will be matched with results from KB Home (KBH) and Lennar (LEN).

Tuesday: May existing home sales
Wednesday: May durable goods orders, May new home sales, weekly crude inventories, Fed statement
Thursday: Final Q1 GDP, weekly initial jobless claims
Friday: May personal income and spending, June revised University of Michigan consumer confidence

The Treasury Department will auction a record $104 billion worth of bonds. The securities being sold are 2-, 5- and 7-year notes.

We haven't seen any end-of-quarter window dressing yet, though I still expect it to occur. Many money managers have been sitting on the sidelines - as is evident by the light volume - and are likely underperforming their benchmarks. This could cause them to move into some of the momentum stocks.

As far as the Fed meeting, I'm not expecting a big reaction, but it's hard to predict. Keep in mind that whatever happens on Wednesday afternoon could be reversed on Thursday.

Enjoy the summer weather.

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

Late last month, CKE Restaurants (CKR) said its operating expenses, as a percentage of revenues, would be "essentially flat" with prior year levels. Though blended same-store sales were down, 2 of the covering analysts raised their forecasts after the announcement. The revisions pushed the consensus earnings estimate a penny higher to 24 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is even more bullish at 25 cents per share. The fast food chain has topped expectations during 2 out of the last 4 quarters. CKE Restaurants is scheduled to report on Thursday, Jun 25, before the start of trading.

Micron (MU) might just turn the tide and surprise to the upside. Though the company has missed expectations by wide margins during the past 3 quarters, fiscal third-quarter forecasts have been trending up recently. The consensus estimate calls for a loss of 43 cents per share, a penny better than a month ago. The most accurate estimate suggests far more upside, projecting a loss of just 36 cents per share. MU is scheduled to report on Thursday, Jun 25, after the close of trading.

Oracle (ORCL) has topped expectations during 8 out of the last 9 quarters. Ahead of the company's fiscal fourth-quarter report, 1 brokerage analyst raised his forecast. Though the revision was not significant enough to move the consensus earnings estimate from 43 cents per share, it did result in a slightly more bullish most accurate estimate of 44 cents. Oracle is scheduled to report on Tuesday, Jun 23, after the close of trading.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

KB Home (KBH) has missed expectations during 7 out of the last 9 quarters and earnings estimates are pointing to another disappointment. One analyst lowered his forecast recently, widening the consensus projection to a loss of 67 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is more bearish and calls for a loss of 70 cents per share.

Guidance could also be troublesome as fiscal 2009 estimates have worsened by 16 cents over the last 30 days. The consensus now calls for a full-year loss of $2.50 per share. KB Home is scheduled to report on Friday, Jun 26, before the start of trading.

Charles Rotblut, CFA, is the senior market analyst for Zacks.com.

About the Zacks Rank

Since 1988, the Zacks Rank has proven that "Earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force impacting stock prices." Since inception in 1988, #1 Rank Stocks have generated an average annual return of +26%. During the 2000-2002 bear market, Zacks #1 Rank stocks gained +43.8%, while the S&P 500 tumbled -37.6%. Also note that the Zacks Rank system has just as many Strong Sell recommendations (Rank #5) as Strong Buy recommendations (Rank #1). Since 1988, Zacks Rank #5 stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 by 111% annually (-0.8% versus +8%). Thus, the Zacks Rank system allows investors to truly manage portfolio trading effectively.

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About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros by going to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5615.

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Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities (including a broker-dealer and an investment adviser), which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contact: Charles Rotblut, CFA
Company: Zacks.com
Phone: 312-265-9352
Email: pr@zacks.com
Visit: www.Zacks.com

Zacks Investment Research

Zacks Earnings Preview: Oracle, Micron, Monsanto, Bank of America, KB Home, Lennar and CKE Restaurants – Press Releases

Zacks Market Commentaries — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 13:53:23 +0000

For Immediate Release

Every day, Zacks.com makes 4 stock picks available, free of charge. To see them, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5612.

The Week's Events

On Thursday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will again be in the spotlight. Bernanke will testify before a House committee about Bank of America's (BAC) acquisition of Merrill Lynch.

Housing data headlines the economic calendar. The release of new and existing homes sales will be matched with results from KB Home (KBH) and Lennar (LEN).

Tuesday: May existing home sales
Wednesday: May durable goods orders, May new home sales, weekly crude inventories, Fed statement
Thursday: Final Q1 GDP, weekly initial jobless claims
Friday: May personal income and spending, June revised University of Michigan consumer confidence

The Treasury Department will auction a record $104 billion worth of bonds. The securities being sold are 2-, 5- and 7-year notes.

As far as the Fed meeting, I'm not expecting a big reaction, but it's hard to predict. Keep in mind that whatever happens on Wednesday afternoon could be reversed on Thursday.

Enjoy the summer weather.

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

Charles Rotblut, CFA, is the senior market analyst for Zacks.com.

About the Zacks Rank

About Zacks

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Contact: Charles Rotblut, CFA
Company: Zacks.com
Phone: 312-265-9352
Email: pr@zacks.com
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Zacks Investment Research

Avalon Oil & Gas, Inc.’s (AOGN.OB) Strong Leadership Team

QualityStocks — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 18:43:59 +0000

Avalon Oil & Gas Inc. is an independent domestic oil and natural gas producer. The company’s strategy is to use efficient reservoir maintenance and innovative technology to generate stable cash flows and production from a portfolio of oil and gas leases. Avalon currently has leases in Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Arkansas. Avalon Oil & Gas [...]

Invest in Hard Assets!

Contrarian Profits — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 14:55:58 +0000

pI love hard assets… like energy, agriculture and metals. Why? Because there is a good chance that inflation is going to devalue paper currency around the globe./p pYou need to have a portion of your wealth in something tangible—something you can hold in your hand, like a hard asset. I’m talking about oil, grains, livestock, sugar, copper, aluminum, gold, silver, platinum and even forest products like lumber./p pThe price of oil will never go to zero! Someone will always be in the market to buy gasoline. Gold has never been worth $0. Silver could always buy you a meal–even in ancient times./p pBut can the value of a stock or a paper currency go to zero? Yes, indeed. One good way to invest#8230;/p

China’s New “Manifest Destiny”

Investment U — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 13:00:44 +0000

China’s New “Manifest Destiny” Tony Daltorio, The Investment U Research Team During my years of experience in the markets, I have found that the consensus opinion on Wall Street is often misguided, incorrect and downright wrong. Today the Wall Street “herd” is moving in the wrong direction again – they’ve missed the real story [...]

Zacks Industry Rank Analysis Highlights: Monsanto, Potash of Saskatchewan, AK Steel, Freeport McMoRan and Weatherford. – Press Releases

Charles Rotblut — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 13:21:34 +0000

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL - June 4, 2009 - Zacks.com releases the latest Zacks Industry Rank. Stocks featured in this week's analysis include Monsanto (MON), Potash of Saskatchewan (POT), AK Steel (AKS), Freeport McMoRan (FCX) and Weatherford (WFT).

Zacks Industry Rank Analysis is written by Charles Rotblut, CFA, Senior Market Analyst for Zacks.com.

This Week: Commodities Rally; Profit Forecasts Don't

Commodity prices have been soaring. Oil, gold, copper, wheat and corn all recently hit multi-month highs. Even the Duke Brothers are making a mint on orange juice futures.

A steady stream of economic data showing a slower pace of deterioration in the U.S. has been the primary driver behind the recent surge. Also playing a role is the combination of a higher tolerance for risk, weekly fluctuations in inventories, the spring planting season, the dollar and sustained growth in China.

What's interesting about the rally is that it has yet to translate into higher earnings estimates for commodity-related companies.

Agriculture Companies

Wheat and corn futures recently set 8-month highs. Other agricultural-related futures have also soared, such as coffee. Profit forecasts for agricultural companies, however, have been trending lower.

There are 2 reasons for the disconnect.

The first is the credit crisis. Though the Treasury Department has deemed some banks too big to fail, many smaller banks have been seized. This has created big problems for some rural communities that depend on just 1 or 2 banks. Furthermore, tighter credit conditions have made it harder for farmers to get the financing they need for planting season.

The second is the weather. Cool and wet weather systems delayed the planting of crops such as corn and soybeans. Monsanto (MON) recently blamed the weather for hurting herbicide sales and causing it to lower full-year guidance. Obviously, the late planting season also has implications for fertilizer companies.

One glimmer of light, however, is Potash of Saskatchewan (POT). Two analysts recently raised their full-year forecasts. The changes were not enough to move the consensus earnings estimate, but they were a step in the right direction.

MON is a Zacks #4 Rank ("sell") stock and is classified in Agricultural Operations. POT is a Zacks #3 Rank ("hold") stocks and is classified in Fertilizers.

Metal Stocks

Since January, gold has consistently stayed above $860 per ounce. After pulling back in April, the precious metal is once again nearing the $1,000 mark.

Gold mining stocks have also rallied lately, though profit forecasts remain unchanged. In fact, the number of positive and negative revisions is about even for Mining-Gold. This was essentially the same scenario we saw in February.

The lack of changes reflect a combination of uncertainty about where gold prices are headed, the impact of other metals on mining company profits (e.g. zinc) and lower production levels.

For other metals, the economy is the big issue. The worldwide recession has led to lower demand. Though optimism about a forthcoming recovery has helped send copper prices and other metals higher, the rise has not translated into better profit forecasts. Rather, the consensus estimates for AK Steel (AKS) and other metal producers are holding steady or declining.

One notable exception is Freeport McMoRan (FCX). Within the past month, positive revisions have pushed the full-year consensus earnings estimate 2 cents higher to $1.02 per share.

AKS and FCX are Zacks #3 Rank stocks. AKS is classified in Steel-Producers. FCX is classified in Mining-Non Ferrous.

Oil & Gas Companies

Most of the profit forecast changes occurring among energy stock prices are in reaction to better-than-feared first-quarter earnings, not an improved outlook for commodity prices.

Natural gas is a big reason why. Even with the recent rally, natural gas prices are down considerably for the year. As a result, many companies are focused on controlling costs. Furthermore, they are only expanding to the extent that cash flows allow them to. Though this helps the bottom line, we have yet to see analysts truly adjust their forecasts to account for the higher commodity prices.

After last year, it's not hard to blame brokerage analysts for being a bit cautious. During the first-half of 2008, they underestimated how high crude would climb. After the bubble peaked in July, many brokerage analysts incorrectly judged how quickly energy prices would plunge.

Our energy analyst, Sheraz Mian, advocates looking at oilfield service companies as a way to play the rise in energy prices. Among the stocks he has long-term buy ratings on is Weatherford (WFT).

WFT is a Zacks #3 Rank stock classified in Oil Field Machine & Equipment.

Commodity-Related Stocks Now Riskier

The lack of positive revisions implies that the risk of owning commodity-related stocks is high.

Valuations have increased notably as the higher stock prices have not been matched by a better earnings outlook. At the same time, commodities have staged a strong rally and it's hard to say how much upside is left. Though agriculture commodities may be influenced by the late planting season, energy and metal futures may need actual signs of higher demand to extend their rally.

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Zacks Investment Research

Commodities Rally; Forecasts Don’t – Zacks Industry Rank Analysis

Charles Rotblut — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 05:00:00 +0000

Commodity prices have been soaring. Oil, gold, copper, wheat and corn all recently hit multi-month highs. Even the Duke Brothers are making a mint on orange juice futures.

What's interesting about the rally is that it has yet to translate into higher earnings estimates for commodity-related companies.

Agriculture Companies

Wheat and corn futures recently set 8-month highs. Other agricultural-related futures have also soared, such as coffee. Profit forecasts for agricultural companies, however, have been trending lower.

There are 2 reasons for the disconnect.

MON is a Zacks #4 Rank ("sell") stock and is classified in Agricultural Operations. AGU and POT are Zacks #3 Rank ("hold") stocks and are classified in Fertilizers.

Metal Stocks

Since January, gold has consistently stayed above $860 per ounce. After pulling back in April, the precious metal is once again nearing the $1,000 mark.

The lack of changes reflect a combination of uncertainty about where gold prices are headed, the impact of other metals on mining company profits (e.g. zinc has hurt profits for Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)) and lower production levels.

For other metals, the economy is the big issue. The worldwide recession has led to lower demand. Though optimism about a forthcoming recovery has helped send copper prices and other metals higher, the rise has not translated into better profit forecasts. Rather, the consensus estimates for AK Steel (AKS), Alcoa (AA) and other metal producers are holding steady or declining.

One notable exception is Freeport McMoRan (FCX). Within the past month, positive revisions have pushed the full-year consensus earnings estimate 2 cents higher to $1.02 per share.

AEM, AKS, AA and FCX are Zacks #3 Rank stocks. AEM is classified in Mining-Gold. AKS is classified in Steel-Producers. AA and FCX are classified in Mining-Non Ferrous.

Oil & Gas Companies

Most of the profit forecast changes occurring among energy stock prices are in reaction to better-than-feared first-quarter earnings, not an improved outlook for commodity prices.

Natural gas is a big reason why. Even with the recent rally, natural gas prices are down considerably for the year. As a result, companies like Apache (APA) are focused on controlling costs. Furthermore, they are only expanding to the extent that cash flows allow them to. Though this helps the bottom line, we have yet to see analysts truly adjust their forecasts to account for the higher commodity prices.

Our energy analyst, Sheraz Mian, advocates looking at oilfield service companies as a way to play the rise in energy prices. Among the stocks he has long-term buy ratings on are Weatherford (WFT) and Ensco (ESV).

APA, WFT and ESV are Zacks #3 Rank stocks. APA is classified in Oil-U.S. Exploration & Production. WFT is classified in Oil Field Machine & Equipment. ESV is classified in Oil & Gas Drilling.

Commodity-Related Stocks Now Riskier

The lack of positive revisions implies that the risk of owning commodity-related stocks is high.

Zacks Premium and Zacks Elite subscribers can view the Zacks Industry Rank List at http://www.zacks.com/zrank/zrank_inds.php. This interactive list allows you to see all of the companies, and their Zacks Rank, within more than 200 industries. Shown below is the Zacks Sector Rank List, which shows the trend in estimate revisions on a broader scale.

Sector Rank as of Jun 3
Sector	This Week's Zacks Rank	Last Week's Zacks Rank	FY09 Revisions Ratio	FY09 Estimates Revised Up	FY09 Estimates Revised Down
Retail-Wholesale	2.51	2.56	3.24	762	235
Consumer Staples	2.81	2.82	1.76	274	156
Conglomerates	2.86	2.93	1.10	22	20
Consumer Discretionary	2.88	2.83	1.08	302	279
Medical	2.89	2.86	1.33	716	537
Computer and Technology	2.95	2.92	1.14	873	764
Auto-Tires-Trucks	2.96	2.94	1.00	59	59
Utilities	3.01	3.02	0.91	173	191
Business Services	3.05	2.93	0.82	102	124
Oils-Energy	3.07	3.09	0.91	616	679
Basic Materials	3.09	3.08	0.62	174	280
Construction	3.14	3.20	0.55	83	150
Aerospace	3.15	3.25	0.80	41	51
Finance	3.18	3.20	0.77	698	902
Industrial Products	3.23	3.22	0.70	167	237
Transportation	3.26	3.33	0.44	99	224

Charles Rotblut, CFA, is the senior market analyst for Zacks.com. He can be reached at crotblut@zacks.com.

Zacks Investment Research

GM & Citi Replaced on the Dow – Analyst Blog

Charles Rotblut — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 15:57:30 +0000

New Dow Components: Cisco & Travelers

The Dow Jones editorial board, which runs the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI), selected Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Travelers (TRV) as replacements for General Motors (GM) and Citigroup (C). GM is being removed because it is bankrupt. C is being removed because of its ongoing restructuring.

I think Dow Jones missed a good opportunity to position the average for the changing global economy.

CSCO has long been considered to be a prime candidate for the Dow. Given its size and influence, it's difficult to argue against adding the telecom equipment company. However, the average already has Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), International Business Machines (IBM) and Intel (INTC) -- 3 bellwethers of the tech sector.

Therefore, I think a better choice would have been Google (GOOG). Adding GOOG would have given the Dow exposure to the ever-growing ecommerce sector AND the wireless communications sector. Phones using Google's Android operating system are slated to appear at multiple carriers this fall.

Travelers (TRV) was clearly picked to give the average another financial company. The Dow editors continue to like Citigroup and almost appear to be keeping a spot for it.

Rather than staying focused on the financial sector, however, the editors should have gone with Monsanto (MON). Though agriculture accounts for a smaller portion of the U.S. economy than it did in the past, food consumption is only going to rise in the future. Furthermore, the ongoing focus on biofuels means long-term demand for companies like MON.

Finally, it's important to note that the U.S. is becoming more and more of a knowledge-based economy. This means companies that can create products which enhance productivity, such as Google and Monsanto, are more likely to prosper in the future.

To be fair, CSCO and TRV are also knowledge-based companies, but given the composition of the Dow, they wouldn't have been my first choice as replacements.
Read the full analyst report on "$DJI"
Read the full analyst report on "CSCO"
Read the full analyst report on "TRV"
Read the full analyst report on "GM"
Read the full analyst report on "C"
Read the full analyst report on "HPQ"
Read the full analyst report on "IBM"
Read the full analyst report on "INTC"
Read the full analyst report on "GOOG"
Read the full analyst report on "MON"
Zacks Investment Research

Wednesday’s Market Recap (5/27/09)

Bullish Bankers — Thu, 28 May 2009 00:16:39 +0000

Many of the gains that we saw yesterday in the markets due to the Consumer Confidence report were erased today as the Dow dropped 2.05% to close at 8,300.02 and the S&P 500 lost 1.90% settling at 893.06. The NASDAQ fared the best on the day dropping 1.11% to 1,731.08. The dip in the markets [...]

Monsanto Profit to Come in Light

Michael E. Brisky — Wed, 27 May 2009 14:13:00 +0000

Seed company Monsanto was one of the few companies that appeared unscathed during the mess over the past 6 months. They were raising guidance when most were cutting. Today, a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087amp;sid=a44FK3mtwAAEamp;refer=home"we get news/a that earnings are going to come in on the low end of guidance, and lighter than analyst expectations.br /br /ulliMonsanto Co., the world’s biggest seed producer, said earnings this year will be at the low end of its previously announced forecast because of stronger-than- expected competition in its herbicide business./liliOngoing earnings will be about $4.40 a share, the lowest point of its forecasted range of $4.40 to $4.50, St. Louis-based Monsanto said today in a statement. The company was expected to earn $4.59 a share, the average estimate of 12 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. /liliChief Executive Officer Hugh Grant is facing increased competition from Chinese makers of glyphosate herbicide that is cheaper than the company’s Roundup brand. Monsanto said it will earn $4.5 billion from seeds and genetic licenses, helping to reduce the effect of Roundup profit that will be $400 million less than the company’s $2.4 billion April forecast. /li/ulThis isn't horrible news, but not great either. Its better to see the lack of profit from increased competition rather than poor demand. Monsanto is still in good shape, and this could be a nice opportunity to enter a position as the shares are off 4% this morning. Agriculture stocks as a whole have been strong lately, and are one of the few sectors that I believe are getting stronger right now.br /br /Disclosure: No Position.div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='//blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/819581243324579563-5794989875370155941?l=briskycapital.blogspot.com'//div

Potash (NYSE:POT): Upgraded to Buy at Citigroup

Notable Calls — Fri, 22 May 2009 11:43:00 +0000

div style="text-align: justify;"Citigroup is out with a Fertilizer call upgrading span style="font-weight: bold;"Potash (NYSE:POT), Mosaic (NYSE:MOS)/span to Buy from Hold and span style="font-weight: bold;"Agrium (NYSE:AGU)/span to Hold from Sell.br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"Looking Past the China Contract /span— In recent months investors have been sharply focused on the upcoming China potash contract and the risk potash prices could fall below last year’s $575/t level. However, the bigger risk in Citigroup's view is that the Ag complex will continue to rally on stronger grain fundamentals. There are three key reasons grain prices are moving higher, thus creating an environment for multiple expansion for fertilizer stocks:br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"- Grain Supplies Remain Historically Tight —/span Last week’s USDA report indicated lean grain inventories, including significantly tighter corn stocks-to-use (16% vs. 20-year avg. of 24%). In our view grain prices don’t have a “cushion” – another major weather event or poor crop for a major producer (US, Ukraine, Argentina) could move corn prices closer to the $5.00+ range we saw last summer.br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"- The US Planting Season Is Seriously Behind Schedule — /spanWet cold weather has significantly delayed much of the US corn crop. The latest crop progress report indicates corn plantings are 62% complete, behind the 85% average rate for 2004- 2008. Soy plantings are lagging as well, at 25% vs. the 44% average rate.br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"- Broader Market Stabilization amp; Easing of Deflation Concerns —/span Potash prices held up well during the worst of the credit crisis and market collapse. With the easing of credit conditions and stabilization of some industrial and consumer markets, downside risk is lessened.br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"- Upgrading POT, MOS to Buy, AGU to Hold —/span This is a part of a global call, with their European counterparts upgrading potash producers K+S and ICL.br /br /span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"Notablecalls: /spanI suspect a lot of shorts piled into POT yesterday and may be scrabling for the exits early on.br /br /The call makes sense but they are a bit late in my book. Nonetheless, POT amp; MOS will see buy interest at least early on.br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"Can POT do $115 today?/spanbr /br /Of note, Citigroup is downgrading span style="font-weight: bold;"Monsanto (NYSE:MON)/span to Hold from Buy as:br /br /a) they are concerned that a onslaught of Chinese glyphosate will pressure near-term earnings; b) the stock is close to their price target of $95. MON has outperformed the group this year (+27% YTD vs. the Samp;P Chemical Index +20%); they are switching their preferred way to play the Ag cycle from MON to fertilizer producers POT and MOS./divdiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='//blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/29297569-9029069830166934339?l=notablecalls.blogspot.com'//div

Has Recent U.S Data Signaled a Bottom?

Bullish Bankers — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 11:00:40 +0000

A wave of new domestic economic data along with an economic stimulus plan has refueled interest in the Materials sector, particularly precious metals and agriculture stocks. Copper, known as “the commodity with a PhD in economics,” has risen over 28% in the past 30 days while the sector as a whole has gained nearly 33% in [...]

Company News for April 3, 2009 – Corporate Summary

Zacks Market Commentaries — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 14:58:39 +0000

* Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) reported better-than-expected results, as record revenues of $3.46 billion were up 84% YoY. The company shipped a record 7.8 million Blackberries. Earnings of 90 cents per share beat estimates of 84 cents, versus 72 cents a year ago, and revenues beat estimates of $3.41 billion

* Micron Technology (NYSE:MU) reported a larger-than-expected second quarter loss of 97 cents a share, compared with last year's loss of $1.01 a share, on revenues of $993 million, down from $1.36 billion, and Street estimates of $1.14 billion

* CarMax (NYSE:KMX) reported better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings of 17 cents a share, beating estimates of 2 cents, as revenues fell 27.9% to $1.47 billion, missing estimates of $1.6 billion

* Monsanto (NYSE:MON) shares were downgraded by JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM), citing declining agri-business growth. The firm reported second quarter results of $2.16, nine cents ahead of projections, as revenues rose 8.3% to $4.04 billion. The company reaffirmed its 2009 estimate, expecting earnings of $4.40-$4.50, below Street estimates of $4.69

* Reports said IBM (NYSE:IBM) lowered its offer for Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ:JAVA) to $9.55

* Disney (NYSE:DIS) shares were downgraded by JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) on lowered profit expectations. Price targets were lowered to $21 from $23.

Zacks Investment Research

Monsanto (NYSE:MON): Downgrade to Neutral at JP Morgan

Notable Calls — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 10:35:00 +0000

JP Morgan is out downgrading span style="font-weight: bold;"Monsanto (NYSE:MON)/spanspan style="font-weight: bold;"/span to Neutral from Overweight while lowering tgt to $82 from $100.br /br /According to the firm, EPS issues for Monsanto more concern F2010 than F2009. CEO Hugh Grant emphasized the F2009 glyphosate peak on the conference call and the uncertainties in the rate of gross profit decrease ($0.60 per share) from his $2.4 billion F2009 forecast to the $1.9 billion projection he envisions for 2012. That, in a word, is the primary difficulty in forecasting EPS over a multi-year period for Monsanto. Should the decline occur at once, Monsanto is likely to have a flattish EPS year. Should it happen more gradually, the effects mean less.br /br /A second issue is that Monsanto probably needs to raise corn seed and trait prices 5%-10% in F2010 after a year of roughly 20% increases in F2009. Given the possible magnitudes of the glyphosate decreases there is little choice in order for EPS to have a reasonable chance at growing at a double-digit rate for F2010. Given that price announcements in corn traits and seeds are probably not forthcoming until August-September, and the rate of glyphosate profit decrease is an open question, investors will probably have difficulty in valuing Monsanto over the coming months.br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"Monsanto’s F2010 EPS growth rate is likely to decelerate in F2010. F2009 EPS is being assisted by a roughly $0.50 per share tailwind in glyphosate./span A ($0.30) headwind might be a reasonable base case for F2010. F2009 was an exceptional year for price increases in corn seeds and traits and they expect gross profit to climb 23% or about $0.70 per share; something like 60% of this increase or $0.40 seems more reasonable for F2010 at this juncture. JP Morgan does however expect soybean seeds and traits to have a strong F2010 as Ready to Yield soybeans ramps up to about 10 million acres and benefits the income statement by about $0.35 per share.br /br /span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"Notablecalls: /spanStruggling to decide if this is a significant call or not. The agri chem. analyst team at JPM is pretty well regarded but on the other hand it's kind of difficult to envision Monsanto's growth coming to a halt.br /br /If JPM's right (or if investors think they are right), MON's headed lower. Way lower.br /br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"PS: /spanI'm hearing MSCO is out lowering MON tgt to $115 from $170 this AM.div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/29297569-6324301824533547016?l=notablecalls.blogspot.com'//div

Jim Rogers Still Bullish on Commidities

Michael E. Brisky — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 16:01:00 +0000

Not this this is surprising, but Jim Rogers is still bullish on commodities. In an economy where the prices of most assets in decline, the most predictable products would be hard assets. br /br /blockquoteRogers added he remains bullish on agriculture and that commodities are “the only area of the world economy I know which is benefiting.” He said he owns “some” gold and silver, and regards silver as “cheaper.” pWater, power and other infrastructure companies’ shares are favored because their earnings are less vulnerable during the global slowdown, Rogers said. /p p“We’re having a shift to people who produce real goods,” Rogers said. “Those are the people who are going to be in charge. The farmers are going to have the Lamborghinis in the future, not the brokers on Wall Street.” /p/blockquotep/pAs someone who spends a lot of time researching investment ideas, believe me that there isn't a lot out there that's attractive right now. A case can be made for earnings to be eroded in almost any sector. Companies guiding higher and raising dividends are almost non-existent. One company, which is in the agriculture sector is Monsanto (a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mon"MON/a). They continue to say they're performing well, but you'll pay a premium for the stock at 17x earnings. Why should we pay a premium for any stock in an environment with this much uncertainty? Just because there is nowhere else to put our money? No thanks. br /br /I do like the sector, but it doesn't mean I'm willing to overpay for the stocks. I like Potash (a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=potamp;.yficrumb=IJyKedsGVen"POT/a) and Mosaic (a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mosamp;.yficrumb=IJyKedsGVen"MOS/a) basically as much as Monsanto, and I'm looking to create a position in any of these stocks at the right price. br /br /I do believe inflation is coming. I'm in favor of owning inflation protected securities, as well as a various basket of commodities, including agriculture and oil.br /br /a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087amp;sid=aVBkQ7I11xKMamp;refer=home"Bloomberg article link/a.br /Disclosure: none.

Rally Coming?

Michael E. Brisky — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 16:10:00 +0000

I've been feeling a bear market rally for awhile, but maybe its just too obvious, and too many people are expecting it. The market is up today, but not in typical snap-back fashion that follow periods of prolonged selling. Remember last fall when the snap-back rally was up 5% and the shorts were getting killed. Not happening today. This leaves me a little worried.br /br /I think investors have lost confidence, and have just been beaten down. This climate is typically a great buying opportunity, but man its tough out there right now. Every time I dip a toe in, I quickly get stopped out of the trade. I'm not taking any chances and hanging onto new positions if they lose money. I'm cutting them off quickly.br /br /As much as they're trotting out a deflating economy, I think we're going to be in for some heavy inflation once the economy stabilizes. So, for the next segment, I'm looking into agriculture and food. I've never been a gold buyer, but may have to do a little of that too.br /br /Right now, I'm looking at these names:br /br /Potash (a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=pot"POT/a)br /Mosaic (a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mos"MOS/a)br /Monsanto (a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mon"MON/a)br /Powershares Ag. Fund (a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DBA"DBA/a)br /br /And maybe oil. I'm not hurrying here, but if you're twisting my arm:br /br /Petrobras (a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=pbr"PBR/a)br /Noble (a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ne"NE/a)br /National Oilwell Varco (a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nov"NOV/a)br /br /No Positions in Stocks Mentioned.

New Short Pick: MONSANTO (MON) – 02-23-2009

Steve Warshaw — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 23:45:32 +0000

Thank you Marketclub. Check out what the Trade Triangles found for us today: Chart Full Sized Image Resistance / Stops Resistance 1 - $74Resistance 2 - $70Resistance 3 (Target) - $66.50 Stop - $76.27 This trade came up on Marketclub Weekly Trade Triangle Scan. If you’re looking for a simple yet effective way to find profitable trades, check out this video

Monsanto Shares Rise Sharply On Earnings

Daniel Shepard — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:02:19 +0000

Wednesday January 7, 2009 Navivest Shares of agricultural company Monsanto (MON) rose sharply today, after the company reported that its first quarter 2009 earnings grew 117% year over year. The company also announced that it is raising its full-year earnings-per-share guidance to $4.40 – $4.50, from a prior range of $4.20 to $4.40. Monsanto reported net sales of $2.6 [...]

Stocks for 2009

Declan Fallon — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 15:47:00 +0000

Like the Christmas sales the stocks for 2009 are making an early appearance. So let's see who has gone for what:br /br /a href="http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/invest/jubak/stocks.asp"Jubak at MSN/a:br /br /liExxon Mobil (strongXOM/strong); target of $91br /liJP Morgan (strongJPM/strong); Preferred share target of $42br /liEnergy Transder Partners (strongETP/strong); target of $42br /liONEOK Partners (strongOKS/strong); target of $52 by December 2009 and $58 by June 2009.br /liPetroleo Brasileriro (strongPBR/strong); target of $41br /liTransocean ltd (strongRIG/strong); target of $117.60br /liGorman-Rupp (strongGRC/strong); target of $35br /liMiddleby Corp (strongMIDD/strong); target of $75br /liChesapeake Energy (strongCHK/strong); target of $39br /liUS Bancorp (strongUSB/strong); target of $44br /liKinross Gold Corp (strongKGC/strong); target of $19.75 by June 2009br /liEnbridge Inc (strongENB/strong); target of $48 by February 2009br /liFortescue Metals Group (strongFSUMF/strong); target of $5br /liPlum Creek Timber Co. (strongPCL/strong); target of $53br /liRayonier Inc (strongRYN/strong); target of $55br /liUltra Pertoleum (strongUPL/strong); target of $107br /liThompson Creek Metals (strongTC/strong); target of $9.90br /liYara International (strongYARIY/strong); target of $38br /liMaxwell Technologies (strongMXWL/strong); target of $14br /liDeere and Co. (strongDE/strong); target of $62br /liDevon Energy Corp (strongDVN/strong); target of $85br /liGoldcorp (strongGG/strong); target of $46br /br /span class="fullpost"a href="http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/9-experts-stock-picks-for-2009.aspx"MSN Experts/a:br /br /The Prudent Speculator:br /br /liVF (strongVFC/strong)br /liManitowoc (strongMTW/strong)br /liGamestop (strongGME/strong)br /br /The Oberweis Rerport:br /br /liGreen Mountain Coffee Roasters (strongGMCR/strong)br /liVisionChina (strongVISN/strong)br /liIllumina (strongILMN/strong)br /br /Turnaround Letter:br /br /liTeradyne (strongTER/strong)br /liQwest Communications International (strongQ/strong)br /br /The Value Line Investment Survey:br /br /liJohnson and Johnson (strongJNJ/strong)br /liMcDonald's (strongMCD/strong)br /liW.W. Grainger (strongGWW/strong)br /br /Investment Quality Trends:br /br /liBarrick Gold (strongABX/strong)br /liArcher-Daniels-Midland (strongADM/strong)br /liSigma-Aldrich (strongSIAL/strong)br /br /Zacks Elite:br /br /liBrisotl-Myers Squibb (strongBMY/strong)br /liApollo Group (strongAPOL/strong)br /br /Almanac Investor:br /br /liUnited States Oil (strongUSO/strong)br /liDirexion Energy Bull 3X Shares (strongERX/strong)br /liUltra Technology ProShares (strongROM/strong)br /liUltra Semiconductor ProShares (strongUSD/strong)br /liUltra Financials ProShares (strongUYG/strong)br /liUltra Real Estate (strongURE/strong)br /br /Global Investing:br /br /liBanco Santander (strongSTD/strong)br /liComputershare (strongCMSQF/strong)br /liSPDR Gold Shares (strongGLD/strong)br /liiShares COMEX Gold Trust (strongIAU/strong)br /br /a href="http://www.thestreet.com/video/10451714/cramer-picks-for-2009-housing-rally.html?cm_ven=AOLcm_cat=FREEcm_ite=NAs=1"Jim Cramer/a:br /br /Housing for 2009...br /br /liSears Holdings (strongSHLD/strong)br /liHome Depot (strongHD/strong)br /liTol Brothers (strongTOL/strong)br /liBeazer Homes (strongBZH/strong)br /liBlack and Decker (strongBDK/strong)br /liFederal Home Loan Mortgage (strongFRE/strong)br /liFederal National Mortgage (strongFNM/strong)br /liLoews Corp (strongL/strong)br /br /a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/steve-mcdonalds-8-big-money-picks-for-2009/9875"Contrarian Profits/a:br /br /liFord (strongF/strong)??br /liGeneral Electric (strongGE/strong)br /liBrisotl Myers Squibb (strongBMY/strong)br /liVerizon (strongVZ/strong)br /liATT (strongT/strong)br /liLorillard (strongLO/strong)br /liAltria (strongMO/strong)br /liGoldman bond 7.35% yieldbr /liAlcoa bond 6.00% yieldbr /br /a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/28234358"European Stocks from CNBC/abr /br /liBSkyB (strongBSY/strong)br /liNestle (strongNESN/strong)br /liZurich Life (strongZURN/strong)br /liMisys (strongMIS/strong)br /liDialog (???)br /liAccor (strongAC/strong)br /br /a href="http://209.85.229.132/search?q=cache:gzFet4k7w8MJ:www.australianstockwatch.com/2008/12/stock-picks-yr-2008-2009.html+stock+picks+for+2009hl=enct=clnkcd=7"Australian Stocks/abr /br /liBHP Billiton (strongBHP/strong)br /liMacArthur Coal (???)br /br /a href="http://v2.monolog.it/post/61335515/top-stock-picks-for-2009"Monolog top 10 US and European/a:br /br /US:br /br /liSierra Wireless (strongSWIR/strong)br /liVaalco Energy (strongEGY/strong)br /liTerra Industries (strongTRA/strong)br /liVerigy (strongVRGY/strong)br /liCF Industries Holdings (strongCF/strong)br /liCTC Media (strongCTCM/strong)br /liMEMC Electronic Materials (strongMEMC/strong)br /liSucampo Pharmaceuticals (strongSCMP/strong)br /liEMCOR Group (strongEME/strong)br /liKBR (strongKBR/strong)br /br /EU:br /br /liAndritz (strongANDR/strong)br /liGestevision Telecinco (strongTL5/strong)br /liAntena 3 de Television (strongA3TV/strong)br /liEVS Broadcast Equipment (strongEVS/strong)br /liTomTom (strongTOM2/strong)br /liGEA Group (strongG1A/strong)br /liVallourec (strongVK/strong) br /liMAN (strongMAN/strong)br /liSalzgitter (strongSZG/strong)br /liRexel (strongRXL/strong)br /br /a href="http://money.aol.com/investing/cheap-stocks"AOL Financial Cheap stocks for 2009/a:br /br /liPepsiCo (strongPEP/strong)br /liCosto (strongCOST/strong)br /liAmazon (strongAMZN/strong)br /liJ.M. Smuckers (strongSJM/strong)br /liEstee Lauder (strongEL/strong)br /liIBM (strongIBM/strong)br /liClorox (strongCLX/strong)br /liGoldman Sachs (strongGS/strong)br /liSt. Jude (strongSTJ/strong)br /liBMC Software (strongBMC/strong)br /liHudson City Bancorp (strongHCBK/strong)br /liIntuitive Surgical (strongISRG/strong)br /liBurlington Northern Santa Fe (strongBNI/strong)br /liMonsanto (strongMON/strong)br /liDominion (strongD/strong)br /br /All of these stocks will be added to Zignals a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/charts/trystockcharts.aspx"YourCall/a (part of Zignals a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/charts/trystockcharts.aspx"Stock Charts/a) and act as a barometer for 2009. Challenge yourself against the Pros and make a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/charts/trystockcharts.aspx"YourCall/a for 2009. br /br /span style="font-size:80%; color:#cccccc;"Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, a href="http://www.zignals.com"Zignals.com/a the free stock alerts, market alerts, and stock charts website /span/span

Goldman Sachs Downgrades Monsanto (MON) and Potash (POT)

Trader Mark — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 11:15:00 +0000

Tags for this Post:Fund my Mutual Fund, Goldman Sachs, Market Commentary, Monsanto, Potash

Monsanto Live Trade Update

Steve Warshaw — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 02:11:36 +0000

Hi all, I just put together a quick video to review monsanto as today would have hit some of our stops. One thing to keep in mind is that not all trades are winners, and the goal is to minimize how much we lose in a losing trade. That is the purpose of setting quality stops. Here’s [...]

Monsanto Update: There’s the bounce…

Steve Warshaw — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 07:08:48 +0000

Hi everyone, I’m sorry but I have to keep tonight’s post short. Today the market took the bounce I predicted last thursday, and MON took a BIG jump up. However, the jump really didn’t change anything technically. The rally paused just short of the 50% fibonacci retracement from the October 14th high of 86.79 @ 83.68. I’m going to [...]

Monsanto Live Trade Update for 10-27-08

Steve Warshaw — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 02:25:22 +0000

Today the market didn’t do exactly what I had expected, but Monsanto actually did. Last Thursday evening, after the market turned from a huge loss to a decent gain, I decided to sell 1/2 of the position towards the end of trading because of a recent trend of early week rallies. On Friday, Monsanto actually had another down [...]

Stock Pick Update (Monsanto): Managing Postions

Steve Warshaw — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 07:39:56 +0000

Before I get started on today’s topic, I thought I would review the trade so far: Trade size - 100 shares Trade opened short - 10/20/2008 at $89 Currently - 10/23/2008, stock price - $74.91 Profit - $15.09, or 15.83% Posts About This Trade: http://recordpricebreakout.com/new-hot-stock-pick-mon-short-10-19-08/ http://recordpricebreakout.com/monsato-mon-short-pick-update/ http://recordpricebreakout.com/trailing-stops-a-live-trade-example/ Managing Open Positions There are many skills a trader must learn in order to take the most profit from [...]

Credit Markets: Is the Worst Over?

Sean Maher — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:10:00 +0000

Since the belatedly radical action taken by the UK and Eurozone governments just over a week ago to directly recapitalize their key banks and guarantee interbank lending, a strategy now replicated from the US to South Korea, measures of credit market stress have slowly improved. In fact, this 'normalisation' is now accelerating. The TED spread is down to just over 3% today, from 3.59% Friday; the two-year swap spread down to 111 from 122 (and having peaked at over 160), LIBOR is down to 4% and the yield on 3 mth Treasuries is up to near 1% (from zero in the depths of despair we reached a couple of weeks back). I'm playing this trend by being short the VIX. All these numbers, while still clearly abnormal, speak of a very gradual recovery from the extreme risk aversion that has paralysed credit markets in recent weeks. In fact, I think the easiest trade in the world right now is the sovereign/financials spread play; if each government is now explicitly guaranteeing its major banks, their CDS spreads will surely converge with the sovereign default risk; debt issued by these 'too big to fail' institutions will become equivalent to the GSE agency debt so beloved of yield chasing Asian central banks in recent years. We face a very protracted deleveraging process, and the trillions of dollars in wealth destruction we have seen in recent weeks will weigh heavily on the global growth outlook in 2009 and beyond. However, if capital markets can begin functioning again at even modest levels to allow the refinancing of short-term corporate debt/LBO finance etc, then we can avoid something much more ominous than a synchronised global recession. Equities now look very reasonably valued versus bonds on any long term view, and after a 'lost decade' odds are that they will outperform fixed income in the next one, short of an economic Ice Age. Near term, we still have an avalanche of earnings downgrades to absorb, and although the consensus for S&P earnings is now just sub $100 for 2009, I've been forecasting either side of $70 since the Summer, and that's where we're headed. Rapidly falling interest rates in Europe, the UK and Asia in response to the rising risk of debt deflation will help offset this to a degree. Further extreme volatility, and indeed a retest of the recent lows is quite possible given the scale of liquidation selling I wrote about previously, and the still poor technical picture. In this context, stabilising credit markets will offer crucial support. Having been a consistent bear of the investment bubble in commodities six months ago, my view now is that many, having fallen below marginal production costs, are looking attractive on a long-term view, notably energy and food (see What's the Chinese for Big Mac? for some perspective on the looming food crunch). Stocks with leading positions in these markets, such as Monsanto, Potash and Schlumberger, which have slumped by 50-70% from their highs, look likely to outperform in any sustainable bear rally. With the S&P having bounced back to 975, the risk of a final cathartic sell-off remains too high to move aggressively long just yet, but we're getting close.

JPMorgan Chase Franchise 16

CEO Blogger — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 14:45:08 +0000

The analysts said they picked their list based on attributes like low leverage, dividend yield, high net income margins and high free cash yields. J.P. Morgan analysts also looked for companies that they believe will outperform in a weakening global economy. Those companies would be able to maintain pricing power, market dominance, and perform counter-cyclically. Here’s [...]

Early Morning Tid-bits:

Notable Calls — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 11:18:00 +0000

- Goldman Sachs downgrades First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) to Sell and adds to their Conviction Sell List

NC: The stock will get hit today in a major way. There is little support for FSLR in this mkt. I would not be surprised to see the stock hit par in the coming months. Note that SPWR gets the boot from GSCO as well. Piper lowers FSLR tgt to $250 from $350.

- Morgan Stanley reits Overweight and $175 tgt on Monsanto (NYSE:MON) noting soft commodity price bearsare lurking around the wrong stock. While they do not foresee a $3 bushel of corn, the firm notes they have always modeled Monsanto's pricing power as if the farmer was only going to realize $3 corn (and $8 soybeans). The market appears to have a dispositive view (i.e., expecting $3 corn and for it to result in demand destruction for Monsanto’s products)

Firm believes that farmers will earn a 72% ROIC on the triple stack in F09 at $3 corn (and would still earn a 45% ROIC at $2 corn) and therefore see little risk of demand destruction should new crop corn prices decline further from their present position.

NC: I think MON should be on your bounce radar today.

- FBR is upgrading Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc. (NSYE:FCX) to Outperform with a $85 tgt with a view that the stock is oversold and that the risk/reward is now compelling. Valuation multiples have contracted significantly, and free cash generation is strong even if copper prices were to contract further.

NC: This is a major call in my opinion. When was the last time you saw this one upgraded? FBR has been skittish on the space for quite a while. FCX is trading around 5x 2008/2009 EPS. This one could reach $48-$50 level in a jiffy.

- RBC Capital is out with some positive comments on Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) saying the BlackBerry 9530 Storm, RIM's first widescreen/touchscreen Smartphone, is expected to be announced this week (possibly Wednesday in London) in a joint Verizon/Vodafone/RIM press conference. Launch still expected 1st week November; they expect 850k Storms shipped Q3/Q4, and 3-4M units FTM. Exclusively at Verizon/Vodafone (who do not carry the iPhone), Storm may be aggressively marketed by these carriers and RIM into the holidays.

Maintains Sector Perform and $90 tgt.

NC: I think you should add RIMM to your bounce list. The stock acted very nicely yesterday. We may get some follow-through today.

Hope it helps,

NC

Ag Is Dead?

Roger Nusbaum — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 12:17:00 +0000

So says the MarketBeat blog.

The post lists all sorts of related companies noting how much they are down and throws in a comparison to Microsoft and the tech bubble.

The ag companies have earnings, there is clear and obvious demand for their product as part of the resource theme and the global ascendancy theme as opposed to internet stocks which were valued based on eyeballs.

So clearly ag is different!

Hang with me here, I'm not going where you think I am.

I do think ag is different but that may not be right. The fundamental case for ag in terms of the world needing their stuff seems different but that may not be right. The ag companies make a lot of money and trade at valuations that can be measured but that may not matter.

Ag is either different or it isn't. If you have a 2-3% weighting you don't have to be right about it being different. It would be better if you could be right but you don't have to be. If you have 10-15% or more in ag well it does matter whether you are right or not.

I have had Monsanto for a long time, bought on the way up in the high $80's, sold some in the $120's and still have the stock down here, a few points under water. The way things have worked out it is maybe 1% of the portfolio.

There is no convincing me that the name will not be a moon shot. I like the name so much I would have it over to Thanksgiving dinner (trying to inject some humor). If I am wrong and the name goes to zero that will be bad but not ruinous. I preach on and on about moderation in themes like these for this very reason.

If you follow the logic of the MarketBeat post then we can conclude that there are people who made the same mistakes with ag as with tech from way back when.

All ag stocks are down a lot. All mining stocks are down a lot. All emerging market stocks are down a lot. All oil stocks are down a lot. All industrial stocks are down a lot. All financials stocks are down a lot. Owning some of these is not a problem. Owning too many could be. This might sound subtle but in terms of portfolio impact it could be quite meaningful.

BTW I am not suggesting anyone buy Monsanto. It is just an example, I assume you have stocks that you would like to have over for Thanksgiving dinner.

Earnings Preview for Oct 7 – 10 – Earnings Preview

Charles Rotblut — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 00:00:00 +0000

As I write this on Friday morning, there is scuttlebutt that several central banks could announce rate cuts on Monday morning. Though the rumors are unconfirmed, fed fund futures are pricing in a significantly higher probability of a half-point cut occurring at the late-October meeting.

Alcoa (AA) will "officially" kick off earnings season when it reports on Tuesday afternoon. The aluminum maker is expected to announce profits of 60 cents per share.

Joining AA throughout the week will be fellow S&P 500 members: Costco (COST), Chevron (CVX), General Electric (GE), Host Hotel & Resorts (HST), Monsanto (MON), Progressive (PGR), Safeway (SWY) and Yum! Brands (YUM).

The minutes from the September Fed meeting will be released on Tuesday afternoon. If a rate cut is announced on Monday morning, the significance of these minutes would be reduced. Nonetheless, the notes will be scrutinized for anything that could unnerve traders or give them hope that things are better than thought.

The week's key economic data will include:

Tuesday: August consumer credit, Fed minutes
Wednesday: August pending home sales, weekly crude inventories
Thursday: September import and export prices, weekly initial jobless claims
Friday: August trade balance

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak at the National Association of Business Economics' annual meeting on Tuesday afternoon. He will discuss the economy and financial markets.

Yom Kippur, the Jewish day of atonement, starts Wednesday at sundown. This should result in lower volume on Thursday. The Stock Trader's Almanac says buying on Yom Kippur and selling at the start of Passover has been a profitable strategy.

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

This past Thursday, Monsanto (MON) boosted its fiscal 2008 earnings outlook for the second time in as many months. MON cited strong performance from its Roundup business as the reason for the recent bullishness.

Brokerage analysts accordingly narrowed their fiscal fourth-quarter projections to a loss of 12 cents per share from a previously forecasted loss of 16 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is more bullish at a loss of 10 cents per share. Monsanto is scheduled to report on Wednesday, Oct 10, before the start of trading.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

General Electric (GE) recently cut its profit guidance, as volatility in the credit markets hurt its finance arm - GE Capital. The division contributes about 45% to GEÂ’s earnings. All of the covering brokerage analysts lowered their profit estimates, sending the third-quarter consensus earnings estimate down to 45 cents per share. The Zacks #4 Rank ("sell") company has missed consensus in 2 of the last 4 quarters. GE is scheduled to report on Friday, Oct 10, before the start of trading.

Charles Rotblut, CFA is the senior market analyst for Zacks.com. He can be reached at crotblut@zacks.com.

Surprise Trader can help you turn earnings surprises into quick profits. Learn how.

Earnings Calendar

Here is a list of companies that we have confirmed will report during the week of Oct 7 - Oct 10¹.

Company	Ticker	Zacks Consensus Estimate	Year Ago Actual	Last Qtr Surprise	Report Date	Report Time
Acuity Brands	AYI	$1.09	$1.16	3.1%	10/7/2008	BTO
Alcoa Inc	AA	$0.60	$0.64	7.6%	10/7/2008	AMC
Aracruz Cel-Adr	ARA	$1.36	$1.31	(25.2%)	10/7/2008	N/A
Centennial Comm	CYCL	$0.10	$0.06	71.4%	10/7/2008	BTO
Premier Exhibit	PRXI	$0.02	$0.17	(137.5%)	10/7/2008	AMC
Safeway Inc	SWY	$0.48	$0.44	1.9%	10/7/2008	BTO
Sealy Corp	ZZ	$0.09	$0.22	100.0%	10/7/2008	AMC
Team Inc	TISI	$0.26	$0.18	11.9%	10/7/2008	AMC
Yum! Brands Inc	YUM	$0.54	$0.50	7.14%	10/7/2008	AMC
Acergy Sa	ACGY	$0.46	$0.39	0.0%	10/8/2008	BTO
Costco Whole Cp	COST	$0.92	$0.91	0.0%	10/8/2008	BTO
Helen Of Troy	HELE	$0.37	$0.32	31.3%	10/8/2008	BTO
Lindsay Corp	LNN	$0.70	$0.32	(5.7%)	10/8/2008	BTO
Merix Corp	MERX	($0.17)	($0.11)	10.5%	10/8/2008	BTO
Monsanto Co-New	MON	($0.12)	($0.18)	7.4%	10/8/2008	BTO
Nu Horizons Ele	NUHC	$0.04	$0.04	0.0%	10/8/2008	AMC
Progressive Cor	PGR	$0.32	$0.42	(13.5%)	10/8/2008	BTO
Richardson Elec	RELL	$0.05	$0.01	57.1%	10/8/2008	AMC
Ruby Tuesday	RT	$0.11	$0.21	35.0%	10/8/2008	AMC
Chevron Corp	CVX	$3.33	$1.94	(3.7%)	10/9/2008	AMC
Herley Inds Inc	HRLY	$0.13	$0.27	(6.3%)	10/9/2008	AMC
Intl Speedway	ISCA	$0.70	$0.53	(3.6%)	10/9/2008	BTO
Lam Research	LRCX	$0.31	N/A	46.3%	10/9/2008	AMC
Robbins & Myers	RBN	$0.69	$0.52	6.9%	10/9/2008	AMC
Rpm Intl Inc	RPM	$0.57	$0.53	7.1%	10/9/2008	BTO
Saba Software	SABA	$0.00	($0.05)	(100.0%)	10/9/2008	AMC
Tortoise Cap Rs	TTO	$0.14	$0.00	(215.0%)	10/9/2008	N/A
Emmis Comm Cl A	EMMS	($0.02)	$0.03	(66.7%)	10/10/2008	BTO
Genl Electric	GE	$0.45	$0.50	0.0%	10/10/2008	BTO
Host Hotel&Rsrt	HST	$0.28	$0.38	3.7%	10/10/2008	BTO
Infosys Tec-Adr	INFY	$0.56	$0.48	1.9%	10/10/2008	N/A

BMO = Before The Market Open, AMC = After Market Close

Aditi Samajpati contributed to this article.

¹Some of the companies listed in the earnings calendar may not be in the Zacks Rank universe.

"POH" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
"SWY" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
"YUM" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
"MON" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
"GE" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
"PCLB" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
"AA" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
"SD" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
"MHS" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
Zacks Investment Research

Fertilizers Reeking – Zacks Tale of the Tape

Zacks Market Commentaries — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 14:16:37 +0000

The fertilizer industry is heading for the dumps today. The double blow of being downgraded by Citigroup (C) and RBC Capital is taking its toll, as Agrium (AGU) has lost 12.73% to trade at $65.32 in the morning. However, the greater impact has been on CF Industries (CF), which has tumbled by 19.62% while tremors are also being felt at Terra Industries (TRA), down by 22%.

According to an AP report, a recent drop in urea prices has sent shivers down the ranks of the fertilizer industry. Analysts predict the price weakness could spill into next year. With the broader market in a bear hug over the bailout package turmoil, other agricultural stocks like Monsanto (MON), Intrepid Potash (IPI) and Mosaic (MOS) have absorbed losses the range of 8-10% this morning.

"AGU" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
"IPI" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
"MOS" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
"C" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
"CF" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
"TRA" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
"MON" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
Zacks Investment Research

Caxton Associates Hedge Fund | Exclusive 13F Holdings Analysis

Richard C. Wilson — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 04:33:43 +0000

Caxton Associatese

Caxton Associates Hedge Fund Holdings

This post is being written as part of HedgeFundBlogger.com's Investment Securities Tool which analyzes the holdings of hedge fund managers.

Up next in the macro hedge fund tracking series we have Caxton Associates, ran by Bruce Kovner. Taken from Wikipedia, Kovner's bio is as follows: "Kovner's first trade was for $3,000, borrowed against his MasterCard, in soybean futures contracts. Realizing growth to $40,000, he then watched the contract drop to $23,000 before selling. He later claimed that this first, nerve-racking trade taught him the importance of hedge fund risk management. In his eventual role as a trader under the legendary Michael Marcus at Commodities Corporation (now part of Goldman Sachs), he purportedly made millions and gained widespread respect as an objective and sober trader. This ultimately led to the establishment of his current company, Caxton Associates, in 1983, which today manages over $10 billion in capital and has been closed to new investors since 1992." Year-to-date, Caxton Associates was up 5% as of a few weeks ago.

So, now that we've got a background on Kovner and Caxton Associates, let's take a quick look at his portfolio highlights. Keep in mind that this is merely a brief summary of Caxton's top holdings. Due to the time sensitive nature of the 13F material, I wanted to get this information posted before the next set of filings come out in November.

Top 20 Holdings by % of portfolio
1. Compania Cervecerias Unidas (CCU) - Increased position by 72934%, from 25,000 shares to 18,233,668 shares
2. Electronic Data Systems (EDS) - New Position
3. Activision (ATVI) - New Position
4. Monsanto (MON) - Increased position by 41 %
5. Rockwood Holdings (ROC) - Increased position by 68.8%
6. W-H Energy Services (WHQ) - Increased stake by 195%
7. Occidental (OXY) - Increased stake by 65%
8. ChoicePoint (CPS) - Decreased position by
9. DirecTV (DTV) - Decreased stake by 25%
10. W.R. Grace (GRA) - Boosted stake by 8%
11. Qualcomm (QCOM) - Boosted stake by 44.6%
12. Coca Cola (KO) - Decreased position by 12.5%
13. Rural Cellular (RCCC) - Increased stake by 12.4%
14. Research in Motion (RIMM) - Boosted stake by 8.7%
15. Service Corporation (SCI) - Increased position by 32%
16. Nucor (NUE) - Boosted position by 37%
17. (ANST) - New position
18. XTO (XTO) - Boosted stake by 150%
19. Stewart Enterprises (STEI) - Increased position by 12%
20. Gilead (GILD) - Decreased position by 26.7%

Kovner's Caxton Associates definitely disassociate themselves from the rest of the macro pack when it comes to the equity side of their portfolio. While their portfolio does hold typical energy and technology names often seen in other hedge fund portfolios, they also hold seemingly obscure names that I have yet to see pop up in any other funds I track. So, Kovner and his team may have discovered some diamonds in the rough here. In particular, I want to focus on his top holding: Compania Cervecerias Unidas (CCU). In the quarter prior to the filing, he held just 25,000 shares of this name. Then, over this past quarter, he ratcheted up his holdings in the name big time. He increased his position by 72,934%, bringing it all the way up to his firm's top holding, with a market value of over $642 million at the time of the filing. Needless to say, they bought this name with conviction. And, although I've seen numerous other funds buying up shares of Latin & South American beverage companies, this is the first fund I've seen pick up this name. So, definitely keep an eye on it.

Additionally, I want to point out his holdings in Rocwood Holdings (ROC), W-H Energy Services (WHQ), and Service Corporation (SCI). These are three other names I am seeing for the first time amongst the hedge funds I track. And, he was adding across the board to all three names. Caxton added to WHQ the most, increasing their position by 195%.

Now, turning to the 'hedge fund favorite' names that tend to pop up in numerous hedge fund portfolios that I track, we see Caxton holds positions in Qualcomm (QCOM), Research in Motion (RIMM), XTO Energy (XTO), Occidental (OXY), and Gilead (GILD). Caxton was out adding pretty moderately to all these names. OXY and XTO are easily two of the favorite equity energy plays amongst various hedge funds. And, you have to wonder how they affected their portfolio, given the volatile ride energy stocks have seen as of late. Turning to tech, we see that Caxton, like so many other funds, enjoy large positions in both QCOM and RIMM. As I've noted before, QCOM is easily a top five most common equity holding among the hedge funds I track. And, just like energy, technology stocks have been whipsawed around a lot recently. So, although Caxton was out adding this past quarter, we'll have to see if they were still adding to these names come the next 13F filing.

We already knew hedge funds (and macro funds in particular) had a rough July. And, it's easy to see why, with the heavy commodity exposure many of them had. What we don't yet know is how they've rebounded (if at all). Lastly, I just want to re-emphasize that since Caxton is a macro fund, they obviously have the majority of their positions in the commodity, currency, futures, or other markets. But, at the same time, they still have a sizable chunk of money in the equity markets.

Caxton Associates' full 13F filing listing every position can be found at the SEC.

Guest post by Market Folly

Please check here next week for some further analysis on specific holdings of leading hedge funds.

Analysis #1: Tontine Capital Partners - 13F Hedge Fund Holdings
Analysis #2: Lone Pine Capital - 13F Hedge Fund Holdings
Analysis #3: Tremblant Capital - 13F Hedge Fund Holdings
Analysis #4: Maverick Capital Management 13F Holdings Analysis
Analysis #5: BP Capital Management 13F Holdings Analysis
Analysis #6: Blue Ridge Capital 13F Holdings Analysis
Analysis #7: Clarium Capital Management 13F Holdings Analysis
Analysis #8: Greenlight Capital David Einhorn 13F Holdings
Analysis #9: Soros Fund Management LLC 13F Holdings Analysis

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Tags: Caxton Associates Hedge Fund, Caxton hedge fund, Caxton Hedge Funds, Caxton Associates LP LLC Inc., hedge fund holdings of Caxton Associates, SCI, NUE, RIMM, RCCC

Maverick Capital Management 13F | Lee Ainslie Hedge Fund Holdings Analysis

Richard C. Wilson — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 12:41:00 +0000

Maverick Capital

Maverick Capital Management Holdings Analysis

This post is being written as part of HedgeFundBlogger.com's Investment Securities Tool which analyzes the holdings of hedge fund managers.

Lee Ainslie started Maverick Capital back in 1993 with $38 million. Nowadays, the fund is worth $10 billion. Ainslie, like many of the other fund managers I've profiled, has a background rooted in learning from legendary great Julian Robertson at Tiger Management. So, due to the fact that these proteges learned from the best and have had great success running their own hedge funds, I continually try to find a reason not to follow these funds. And, needless to say I'm never successful. Some contacts over at Maverick have explained that their hedge fund strategy is straight up stock picking, both long and short. They made it clear though, that they do not employ pairs trades. Although, some of their long/short setups might be in the same sector. They try to hedge their positions like a true hedge fund by picking out the shining stars in certain sectors, as well as identifying the pieces of garbage. Now, of course, this presents us with a problem in that the 13F filings only show long positions (unless they're holding puts on a name, we can see those). So, a good amount of Maverick's portfolio (the entire short side) is unbeknownst to us, because they have reported zero put positions. But, let's look on the bright side in that we can see all their long positions. Maverick uses a value approach (obviously learned from Julian) and one of their most popular metrics is finding companies and comparing their enterprise value to sustainable free cash flow.

So, now that we've got a little background on Maverick, let's see what they were up to. The following are Maverick Capital's current holdings as of June 30th 2008, as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. The positions in this most recent 13F were compared to last quarter's 13F and here are the changes made to their portfolio:

New Positions:
First Solar (FSLR): 1,202,118 shares. This position is 2.93% of Maverick's portfolio.
Lorillard (LO): 3,820,856 shares. This position is 2.36% of Maverick's portfolio.
CVS Caremark (CVS): 5,912,073 shares. This position is 2.09% of Maverick's portfolio.
Netapp (NTAP): 9,331,862 shares. This position is 1.81% of Maverick's portfolio.
ITT Educational Services (ESI): 2,422,090 shares. This position is 1.79% of Maverick's portfolio.
Macy's (M): 9,008,174 shares. This position is 1.56% of Maverick's portfolio.
Hansen Natural (HANS): 5,712,952 shares. This position is 1.47% of Maverick's portfolio.
Polo Ralph Lauren (RL): 2,431,244 shares. This position is 1.36% of Maverick's portfolio.
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS): 7,589,473 shares. This position is 1.20% of Maverick's portfolio.
Cigna Corp (CI): 2,931,045 shares. This position is 0.93% of Maverick's portfolio.
Digital River Inc (DRIV): 1,974,144 shares. This position is 0.68% of Maverick's portfolio.
Viacom Inc (VIA): 2,442,500 shares. This position is 0.67% of Maverick's portfolio.
Forest Labs (FRX): 1,789,900 shares. This position is 0.56% of Maverick's portfolio.
Lamar Advertising (LAMR): 1,542,918 shares. This position is 0.50% of Maverick's portfolio.
Visa (V): 565,005 shares. This position is 0.41% of Maverick's portfolio.
South Financial Group (TSFG): 50,000 shares. This position is 0.38% of Maverick's portfolio.
Athena Health (ATHN): 1,245,819 shares. This position is 0.34% of Maverick's portfolio.
National City Corp (NCC): 6,625,176 shares. This position is 0.28% of Maverick's portfolio.
Sohu.com Inc (SOHU): 170,485 shares. This position is 0.11% of Maverick's portfolio.
MSCI Inc (MXB): 287,186 shares. This position is 0.09% of Maverick's portfolio.
Universal American (UAM): 1,004,391 shares. This position is 0.09% of Maverick's portfolio.
Comscore (SCOR): 436,640 shares. This position is 0.09% of Maverick's portfolio.
Citizens Republic Bancorp (CRBC): 937,500 shares. This position is 0.02% of Maverick's portfolio.

Added to:
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B): Increased position by 1412%. Position is now 0.45% of their portfolio.
Gmarket (GMKT): Increased position by 317%. Position is now 0.19% of their portfolio.
Infinera (INFN): Increased position by 171%. Position is now 0.54% of their portfolio.
American Capital (ACAS): Increased position by 141%. Position is now 0.30% of their portfolio.
Nordstrom (JWN): Increased position by 136.61%. Position is now 2.79% of their portfolio.
America Movil (AMX): Increased position by 129.88%. Position is now 3.91% of their portfolio.
Lexmark (LXK): Increased position by 109.39%. Position is now 1.42% of their portfolio.
Citrix (CTXS): Increased position by 109.36%. Position is now 2.20% of their portfolio.
Bank of New York Mellon (BK): Increased position by 55.42%. Position is now 3.15% of their portfolio.
Baxter Intl (BAX): Increased position by 51.69%. Position is now 2.90% of their portfolio.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Increased position by 45.89%. Position is now 2.87% of their portfolio.
Raytheon (RTN): Increased position by 41.72%. Position is now 2.58% of their portfolio.
Fidelity National Info (FIS): Increased position by 40.56%. Position is now 2.05% of their portfolio.
Covidien (COV): Increased position by 32.99%. Position is now 2.32% of their portfolio.
Liberty Media Corp (LMDIA): Increased position by 28.09%. Position is now 1.59% of their portfolio.
Resmed (RMD): Increased position by 26.46%. Position is now 0.74% of their portfolio.
Burlington Northern (BNI): Increased position by 22.73%. Position is now 1.83% of their portfolio.
Google (GOOG): Increased position by 22.27%. Position is now 1.72% of their portfolio.
Genentech (DNA): Increased position by 21.38%. Position is now 1.40% of their portfolio.
Zimmer Holdings (ZMH): Increased position by 20.28%. Position is now 1.73% of their portfolio.
Cypress Bioscience (CYPB): Increased position by 19.98%. Position is now 0.20% of their portfolio.
Apple (AAPL): Increased position by 19.45%. Position is now 4.09% of their portfolio.
Research in Motion (RIMM): Increased position by 15.41%. Position is now 4.08% of their portfolio.
MetroPCS Comm (PCS): Increased position by 13.6%. Position is now 0.77% of their portfolio.
Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN): Increased position by 7.72%. Position is now 0.54% of their portfolio.
Gilead Sciences (GILD): Increased position by 6.66%. Position is now 2.37% of their portfolio.
Marvell Technology (MRVL): Increased position by 5.24%. Position is now 3.08% of their portfolio.
Newstar Financial (NEWS): Increased position by 5.21%. Position is now 0.14% of their portfolio.
Cardinal Health (CAH): Increased position by 3.33%. Position is now 1.56% of their portfolio.
Amylin Pharma (AMLN): Increased position by 2.84%. Position is now 0.58% of their portfolio.
Discovery Holding (DISCA): Increased position by 1.74%. Position is now 1.21% of their portfolio.
Palm (PALM): Increased position by 1.40%. Position is now 0.51% of their portfolio.
Lumber Liquidators (LL): Increased position by 1.14%. Position is now 0.26% of their portfolio.
China Nepstar (NPD): Increased position by 0.75%. Position is now 0.18% of their portfolio.
First Advantage (FADV): Increased position by 0.65%. Position is now 0.15% of their portfolio.
Under Armour (UA): Increased position by 0.17%. Position is now 0.83% of their portfolio.
Mylan Inc (MYL): Increased position by 0.06%. Position is now 1.09% of their portfolio.
Monsanto (MON): Increased position by 0.04%. Position is now 1.68% of their portfolio.
Potash (POT): Increased position by 0.03%. Position is now 2% of their portfolio.

Reduced positions:
Thermo Fisher (TMO): Reduced their position by 4.91%. Position is now 1.68% of their portfolio.
Western Union (WU): Reduced their position by 10.2%. Position is now 2.08% of their portfolio.
Marsh & Mclennan (MMC): Reduced their position by 12%. Position is now 1.55% of their portfolio.
Textron Inc (TXT): Reduced their position by 18.93%. Position is now 1.44% of their portfolio.
Wyeth (WYE): Reduced their position by 20.6%. Position is now 1.46% of their portfolio.
Leap Wireless (LEAP): Reduced their position by 23.40%. Position is now 0.39% of their portfolio.
Trubion Pharma (TRBN): Reduced their position by 24.38%. Position is now 0.04% of their portfolio.
Dish Network (DISH): Reduced their position by 27.75%. Position is now 1.13% of their portfolio.
Avon Products (AVP): Reduced their position by 33.23%. Position is now 1.36% of their portfolio.
JP Morgan Chase (JPM): Reduced their position by 38.68%. Position is now 0.89% of their portfolio.
Cognizant (CTSH): Reduced their position by 42.97%. Position is now 0.85% of their portfolio.
DirecTV (DTV): Reduced their position by 49.69%. Position is now 0.83% of their portfolio.
Suntrust Banks (STI): Reduced their position by 50%. Position is now 0.16% of their portfolio.
Gamestop (GME): Reduced their position by 51.64%. Position is now 0.81% of their portfolio.
Corcept (CORT): Reduced their position by 57.49%. Position is now 0.01% of their portfolio.
Bluefly (BFLY): Reduced their position by 90%. Position is now 0.11% of their portfolio.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A): Reduced their position by 95%. Position is now 0.66% of their portfolio.

Removed Positions (Positions Maverick sold out of completely):
Hanesbrands (HBI)
Autozone (AZO)
Bankrate (RATE)
CNET (CNET)
Crocs (CROX)
Cumulus Media (CMLS)
Harmonic (HLIT)
Loews (L)
Move Inc (MOVE)
Nucor (NUE)
OfficeMax (OMX)
Qualcomm (QCOM)
Salesforce (CRM)
Sandisk (SNDK)
Sears (SHLD)
Starbucks (SBUX)
UnitedHealth (UNH)

Positions with no change:
VMWare (VMW). Position is 0.59% of their portfolio.
BPW Acquisition (BPW). Position is 0.18% of their portfolio.
FIrst Marblehead (FMD). Position is 0.05% of their portfolio.
Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT). Position is 0.01% of their portfolio.
Vivus (VVUS). Position is 0.01% of their portfolio.

Top 20 holdings by % of portfolio:
1. Apple (AAPL): 4.09% of the portfolio
2. Research in Motion (RIMM): 4.08% of the portfolio
3. America Movil (AMX): 3.91% of the portfolio
4. Bank of New York Mellon (BK): 3.15% of the portfolio
5. Marvell Tech (MRVL): 3.08% of the portfolio
6. First Solar (FSLR): 2.93% of the portfolio
7. Baxter Intl (BAX): 2.90% of the portfolio
8. Advanced Micro (AMD): 2.87% of the portfolio
9. Nordstrom (JWN): 2.79% of the portfolio
10. Raytheon (RTN): 2.58% of the portfolio
11. Gilead (GILD): 2.37% of the portfolio
12. Lorillard (LO): 2.36% of the portfolio
13. Covidien (COV): 2.32% of the portfolio
14. Citrix (CTXS): 2.20% of the portfolio
15. CVS Caremark (CVS): 2.09% of the portfolio
16. Western Union (WU): 2.08% of the portfolio
17. Fidelity National Info (FIS): 2.05% of the portfolio
18. Potash (POT): 2.00% of the portfolio
19. Burlington Northern (BNI): 1.83% of the portfolio
20. Netapp (NTAP): 1.81% of the portfolio

----------------------------------------------------

Breakdown: Maverick changed up their portfolio a decent amount over the past quarter. Most notable are their changes within their top 10 holdings. Hedge fund favorite Qualcomm (QCOM) was Maverick's 3rd largest holding last filing. This filing, they no longer even hold a position. Additionally, they were selling off chunks of other top 10 holdings from last quarter. They sold off 33% of their position in Avon Products (AVP), which was their 4th largest holding just one quarter ago. They also sold over 51% of their Gamestop (GME) position, which last quarter was their 7th largest holding. With those positions vacating their place in the top 10 holdings of Maverick's portfolio, new holdings obviously took their place. America Movil (AMX), another hedge fund favorite, was Maverick's 9th largest holding last time. This time, they increased their position by 129% and it is now their 3rd largest holding. They obviously used the weakness in this name to add to their position, just like fellow 'Tiger Cub' fund Lone Pine Capital. Maverick also added heavily to Nordstrom (JWN), increasing their position by 136% and making it now their 9th largest holding.

Maverick was out adding to tech across the board. Apple (AAPL) and Research in Motion (RIMM) are their top 2 largest holdings respectively, as they boosted their positions in both by over 14% each. Additionally, they added to their Marvell (MRVL) position, bringing it up to the fund's 5th largest position now. Maverick also continues to build a position in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), as it now is their 8th largest holding.

Among their new positions this quarter are First Solar (FSLR), Lorillard (LO), and CVS Caremark (CVS). I highlight these three in particular because Maverick started large, new positions in all three names. First Solar (FSLR) was brought up all the way to the fund's 6th largest holding after not even owning shares last quarter. They started a new position in CVS Caremark (CVS) and brought it up to the fund's 15th largest holding. Also, they added heavily to Lorillard (LO) as well, making this new position their 12th largest holding. This position is interesting because we also saw Lone Pine Capital (ran by Stephen Mandel Jr.) start a new position in this exact same name. And, actually, this is not the only position that both Maverick and Lone Pine both started together. In this 13F filing, we see that Maverick started a position in Hansen Natural (HANS). And, Lone Pine recently disclosed that they have a 7.8% stake in HANS. It's definitely common to see many similar positions within the portfolios of various 'Tiger Cub' managers who now run their own funds because they all undoubtedly keep in touch and come from the same school of thought.

One last thing I would like to point out is Maverick selling completely out of various consumer related names. They sold completely out of their positions in Autozone (AZO), Hanesbrands (HBI), Sears (SHLD), Starbucks (SBUX), Crocs (CROX), and OfficeMax (OMX).

You can view their most recent 13F as filed with the SEC here.

Guest post by Market Folly

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Lone Pine Capital Hedge Fund | Stephen Mendel Jr. Exclusive Tracking

Richard C. Wilson — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 05:02:50 +0000

Lone Pine Capital

Lone Pine Capital & Stephen Mendel - Holdings

This post is being written as part of HedgeFundBlogger.com's Investment Securities Tool which analyzes the holdings of hedge fund managers.

Lone Pine Capital, managed by Stephen Mandel Jr. Lone Pine is an $8 Billion fund that has returned over 25% annually ever since its inception in 1997. Why is Mandel worth following you might ask? Well, he served as a consumer/retail analyst for Tiger Management back in the day for legendary investor Julian Robertson. Robertson's proteges/right-hand men have been nicknamed the "Tiger Cubs" and many have started their own funds. So, not only has Mandel learned from one of the best, but he has put up some very solid returns himself. Mandel is well versed in the ways of finding undervalued companies and his funds typically like to sniff out solid companies with good management that are trading below their intrinsic value. Just this past year 1 of his hedge funds was up 34% before fees while another was up 32% before fees. His track record speaks for itself. And, not to mention, he learned from one of the greats in Julian Robertson.

The following are Lone Pine Capital's current holdings as of June 30th 2008, as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. The positions in this most recent 13F were compared to last quarter's 13F and here are the changes made to their portfolio:

New Positions:
Entergy Corp (ETR): 3,518,632 shares. This position is 6.06% of Lone Pine's portfolio.
Weatherford Intl (WFT): 4,820,337 shares. This position is 3.42% of Lone Pine's portfolio.
Lorillard Inc (LO): 3,328,911 shares. This position is 3.29% of Lone Pine's portfolio.
Amazon (AMZN): 2,527,634 shares. This position is 2.65% of Lone Pine's portfolio.
Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD) Puts: 1,336,800. This position is 1.41% of Lone Pine's portfolio.

Added to:
America Movil (AMX): Increased position by 39.5%. Position is now 10.74% of their portfolio.
Sandridge Energy (SD): Increased position by 22.24%. Position is now 11.35% of their portfolio.
SAIC (SAI): Increased position by 16.38%. Position is now 2.45% of their portfolio.
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS): Increased position by 15.8%. Position is now 1.48% of their portfolio.
XTO Energy (XTO): Increased position by 5.41%. Position is now 8.33% of their portfolio.

Reduced Positions:
CB Richard Ellis (CBG): Reduced their position by 9.62%. Position is now 2.94% of their portfolio.
Illumina (ILMN): Reduced their position by 9.97%. Position is now 2.69% of their portfolio.
Fastenal (FAST): Reduced their position by 12.5%. Position is now 3.78% of their portfolio.
Qualcomm (QCOM): Reduced their position by 13.88%. Position is now 7.26% of their portfolio.
Brookfield Asset Mgmt (BAM): Reduced their position by 16.4%. Position is now 3.26% of their portfolio.
Monsanto (MON): Reduced their position by 25.82%. Position is now 3.27% of their portfolio.
Mastercard (MA): Reduced their position by 29%. Position is now 2.48% of their portfolio.
Priceline (PCLN): Reduced their position by 30.75%. Position is now 2.34% of their portfolio.
Google (GOOG): Reduced their position by 39.30%. Position is now 7.39% of their portfolio.
Infosys (INFY): Reduced their position by 49.1%. Position is now 2.19% of their portfolio.
Visa (V): Reduced their position by 57.38%. Position is now 1.93% of their portfolio.
Sears Holdings (SHLD) Puts (2nd put position): Reduced their position by 79.73%. Position is now 0.21% of their portfolio.

Removed Positions (Positions Lone Pine sold out of completely):
Apple (AAPL)
Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) - 2nd listed position
CME Group (CME)
EMC Corp (EMC)
Nutrisystem (NTRI)
Southwestern Energy (SWN)
SRA International (SRX)

Positions with no change:
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM). Position is 3.26% of their portfolio.
Teradata (TDC). Position is 3.06% of their portfolio.
Eagle Materials Inc (EXP). Position is 1.66% of their portfolio.
Bunge (BG) Puts. Position is 0.85% of their portfolio.
Deltek (PROJ). Position is 0.24% of their portfolio.
New York Times (NYT) Puts. Position is 0.02% of their portfolio.

Top 10 holdings by % of portfolio:
1. Sandridge Energy (SD): 11.35% of the portfolio
2. America Movil (AMX): 10.74% of the portfolio
3. XTO Energy (XTO): 8.33% of the portfolio
4. Google (GOOG): 7.39% of the portfolio
5. Qualcomm (QCOM): 7.26% of the portfolio
6. Entergy (ETR): 6.06% of the portfolio (new position)
7. Fastenal (FAST): 3.78% of the portfolio
8. Weatherford Intl (WFT): 3.42% of the portfolio (new position)
9. Lorillard Inc (LO): 3.29% of the portfolio (new position)
10. Monsanto (MON): 3.27% of the portfolio

--------------------------------------------

Breakdown: Well, it's very evident where Mandel & Lone Pine's poor performance is coming from. As of June 30th, they had massive holdings in natural gas and oil players Sandridge Energy (SD) and XTO Energy (XTO). SD was their top holding by % value and XTO was not far behind as their 3rd largest holding. The selloff in natural gas, oil, and all related stocks has undoubtedly affected Lone Pine in a negative way. The selloff in those names started around July, leaving Mandel a very limited window of opportunity to sell. Unfortunately, we'll have to wait until the next round of 13F's in the coming quarter to find out what Mandel has done with his large natural gas positions. Considering that the filing reports holdings as of June 30th, and the major selloff began in July, we have no idea whether Lone Pine was massively hurt by the selloff, or whether they were one of the parties responsible for the selloff. But, no matter how savvy Mandel may be, there is no way he got through July unscathed. So, that looks to be one of the main areas contributing to the lackluster performance of his Lone Cedar Fund so far in 2008.

Next, I want to highlight that Lone Pine added to their America Movil (AMX) position by 39%, nearly doubling down on their shares. Obviously, Mandel still likes the company and was using the weakness to add to his position. His addition is interesting, considering numerous hedge funds completely removed their AMX position over the past quarter, including his 'Tiger cub' buddy John Griffin over at Blue Ridge Capital. AMX has long been a hedge fund favorite and has been a top 10 holding in many prominent hedge fund portfolios over the past year. But, with the recent developments in AMX over the last few months, many hedge funds have taken action. And, unlike his colleagues, Mandel was buying the shares that other hedge fund managers were selling off. It will be interesting to see how this continues to play out, as the once hedge fund favorite AMX may be falling out of favor with numerous managers. Lone Pine, however, was adding with conviction, making it their portfolio's 2nd largest position.

I would also like to highlight a couple of new positions started by Lone Pine this past quarter. They added Entergy (ETR) in mass, making it their 6th largest holding at 6.06% of their overall portfolio. In the past, I've talked about ETR on the blog as a way to play both the rising demand in electricity as well as the nuclear space in alternative energy. In addition to starting ETR, they started Weatherford (WFT), an equipment and service provider in the oil and natural gas spaces. They brought this position up to the fund's 8th largest holding at 3.42% of their portfolio. Additionally, they started a position in Lorillard (LO), a cigarette manufacturer. They brought this name up to the 9th largest fund holding, at 3.29% of the portfolio. Mandel added ETR, WFT, and LO all with conviction over the past quarter, landing all three as top 10 holdings.

Turning to tech, we see that Lone Pine has sizable positions in hedge fund favorites like Google (GOOG) and Qualcomm (QCOM). However, Lone Pine was selling off some of their tech holdings during the past quarter. They sold 13% of their QCOM position, leaving it as the fund's 5th largest holding. Mandel got aggressive with Google (GOOG) though, selling nearly 40% of his position. Despite the selling, it still remains their 4th largest holding. That just goes to show how large of a position he had in GOOG. Additionally, he sold completely out of Apple (AAPL). Just last quarter, it was his fund's 5th largest holding. Now, he no longer even holds a position.

Lone Pine was also busy selling the payment processors Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V). They sold 30% of their position in MA and 57% of their position in V. You can't really blame them though, as they were sitting on some handsome profits from those positions. We'll keep an eye out to see if they add back to their positions now that MA and V trade at cheaper prices than they did 2 months ago. After all, the payment processors are big hedge fund favorites, having appeared in numerous funds' portfolios.

Overall, its easy to see where Lone Pine might be struggling this year. They've been rewarded with nice gains in some of their tech and payment processing holdings. But, those gains could have been easily nullified by the likely beating their natural gas and oil holdings took.

And, you can view their most recent 13F as filed with the SEC here.

Guest blog post by Market Folly

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Lehman: Another One Bites the Dust…

Sean Maher — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 09:54:00 +0000

Belatedly, the Fed and Treasury are drawing a line in the quicksand of moral hazard that has fuelled Wall Street's reckless mismanagement and overleveraged business model. This is now an insolvency crisis for the financial sector, not a liquidity one. An orderly bankruptcy process is the best outcome all around, particularly as it has forced Merrill Lynch into the fastest shotgun wedding since Bristol Palin, and AIG to urgently recapitalise. The new mantra in investment bank boardrooms will be 'Don't be a Dick (Fuld)' and in many ways risks are receding fast in this corner of the shadow financial system; they are in Donald Rumsfeld's immortal analysis 'known unknowns'. The hit will be to bondholders and the CDS market rather than counterparties and customers. The 'unknown unknowns' lie in the hedge fund industry, which has collectively suffered its worst trading period in at least a decade, as blatantly crowded momentum trades in currencies and commodities (and associated resource stocks) have blown up dramatically this Summer. I made a lot of money betting against the consensus on the dollar, commodities and emerging markets, but now all those reversals are overextended and I'm sitting on cash and puts until this thing runs its course. As many funds now try to tie shell shocked investors into extended redemption periods and even cut their outrageous fees as an 'incentive', there is no doubt that the collapse in previously 'hot' resource and materials stocks from Monsanto to Nucor has been exacerbated by hedge fund liquidation. There will be a great medium-term buying opportunity in this area soon (as indeed in selected emerging markets). However, before this crisis period is over, I expect at least one major fund to collapse. A second huge risk is the crisis facing emerging market corporates in rolling over short term financing in coming months; $45bn is due in Russia alone in the next few months. Thirdly, we will have a truly momentous liquidity squeeze as banks square their books into this year-end, sending risk spreads to new highs. Fourthly, the disastrous Bush administration is abandoning all remaining restraint in its final months, and is engaging in very dangerous (and illegal) incursions into Pakistani territory in a desperate attempt to nail Bin Laden by the election. They are more likely to stoke fast rising Islamic extremism in that very unstable and nuclear armed country.

On the upside, the 50bp fall in mortgage rates since the GSE bailout, will at the margin help the natural healing process in US housing, although the bottom is still at least 6-12 mths away, particularly as Alt-A and Prime mortgage default rates are now climbing fast. Oil back below $100 is an effective tax cut for US consumers, which again will help housing at the bottom end where gas was eating up 10% plus of discretionary income a few months back. Inflationary pressures are abating fast, and global interest rates should fall sharply in coming months (even China is cutting now, NZ cut a half point last week). Standing back from the Lehman debacle, overpaid and wildly reckless American executives have wrecked one of the few industries in which the US retained global leadership, and this period for banking will be seen in hindsight like the 1980's for Detroit, the era when leadership passed inexorably to better managed and capitalised foreign players. This is part of a larger trend where US economic leadership is being fatally undermined by a tectonic shift in power to Asia and the Middle East via SWF's, central banks, and aggressively expanding corporates. The role of China and Russia in hastening the GSE resolution by dumping US agency debt will prove to have been a watershed event, and an indication of just how vulnerable the US has become to margin calls from politically motivated foreign creditors. Meanwhile, the US election campaign remains depressingly trivialised by inane discussions about lipstick rather than the historic loss of economic power and influence the country now faces. Like Lehman employees, US voters may pay dearly for their complacency.

China Energy Recovery Inc. (CGYV.OB) Names Seasoned CTO to Enhance Company Growth

QualityStocks — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 19:03:40 +0000

China Energy Recovery Inc. (OTCBB: CGYV) (CER) is an international leader in energy recovery systems with a primary focus on the Chinese market. The company’s technology has the ability to capture industrial-waste energy to produce low-cost electrical power. Not only does this reap benefits for the environment, but offers industrial manufacturers an opportunity to cut [...]

Monsanto to sell soybeans to China

Tony Sagami — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 16:53:44 +0000

Getting approval from the Chinese government for anything is never easy so Monsanto should be very happy with itself for getting permission to sell its soybeans to China.

This will mean millions to Monsanto but what it really should mean to you is that the Chinese demand for food products will continue to put pressure on agriculture prices and enrich investors who own stock in the right food companies.

Potash (NYSE:POT): Very positive Fertilizer call from Morgan Stanley

Notable Calls — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 10:42:00 +0000

Morgan Stanley is out with a very positive Fertilizer call saying they think the business model meltdown implied in fertilizer equities’ recent ~35% decline will prove unfounded. Firm believes that peak earnings are likely to come in 2011 (rather than in 2008, as implied by the equity market) and be substantially higher than the market discounts. Finally, they expect profits ultimately to trough above 2008 levels.

Fertilizer prices will stay higher for longer: i) A global economic slowdown is unlikely to affect fertilizer demand; ii) US farmers are still earning a ~60% ROIC on fertilizer purchases and are thus unlikely to reduce fertilizer application; iii) Emerging market farmers are very low on the yield response curve (i.e., increased application pays for itself); iv) NPK prices have yet to catch up to commodity prices (i.e., record US farmer profits despite higher NPK prices); and v) They believe capacity increases will simply meet underlying demand rather than flood the market and force lower prices.

Valuation extremely compelling: 2009e EV/EBITDA of 2-5x; FCF yields of 10% to 20%. Minimal balance sheet leverage (in some cases none) should allow for substantial share repurchases and dividend payments.

Potash (POT, $280) has the most leverage to potash, the nutrient with the greatest pricing power and barriers to entry. Mosaic (MOS, $155) is best positioned in phosphate and has not been properly credited for its potash assets. Agrium (AGU, $135) has exposure to all nutrients and a growing retail business. Monsanto (MON, $170 - NOT a fertilizer company) remains Morgan Stanley's top pick in Agriculture as they believe it is the best-positioned company in the value chain.

Notablecalls: We saw some bottoming action in several Fert names late yesterday, which may indicate the liquidation sellers are at least taking a break. Plus, we have CSFB out today upgrading MON.

Think the sector could be in for a bounce.

Monsanto (NYSE:MON): Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch out positive on MON this morning

Notable Calls — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 12:12:00 +0000

We have several tier-1 firms out positive on Monsanto (NYSE:MON) this AM:

- Merrill Lynch is raising their tgt to $165 from $155 (Reit Buy) noting that at its recent investor field event Monsanto indicated that fiscal 2009 biotech trait price increases will be above earlier expectations, particularly for triple stacked corn up 33% on average from 2008 versus June guidance of a 20% increase. MLCO's proprietary review of Monsanto’s just-issued price lists indicate that the trait increase approaches 50% for the premium product (VT triple) in the high-yield, high-rootworm pressure areas, but is roughly flat in lower-yielding, low rootworm pressure areas, which they believe will drive penetration rates. Second generation Roundup-tolerant soybeans will be priced $20/acre above first generation versus original expectations of $15. The first generation product will see a seed and trait increase of ~$12/acre, which will be largely offset by higher production costs.

Firm is raising their F2009 and 2010 estimates to $5.10 and $6.10 to reflect the improved pricing outlook in both the seed and genomics segment and in Roundup.

- Morgan Stanley notes that following Monsanto’s third annual Whistle Stop investor event in Monmouth, IL they have increasing conviction in: i) The Company’s ability to execute its overall business plan regardless of the commodity price environment (i.e., secularly higher commodity prices provide upside to the opportunity set, but not the opportunity set itself); ii) The efficacy of Monsanto’s pipeline products; and iii) The Company’s ability to commercialize its pipeline on time. Firm expects the confluence of the above to allow Monsanto to continue to enjoy corn and soybean market share gains (i.e., bigger castle) while lengthening its lead in developing new farm biotechnology (i.e., wider moat).

While Monsanto shares may remain volatile around swings in the US$ and crude oil price, the firm sees only correlation in this regard and not causation (i.e., no P&L impact) and therefore anticipate that as Monsanto continues to execute on its business plan regardless of the US dollar,
crude oil price or corn price (i.e., it anticipates corn gross profit to grow 25-30% in F2009 against a 25% comp), Monsanto shares will trade up towards their intrinsic value.

Reits Overweight and $170 tgt.

Notablecalls: I think these two calls serve to push the stock towards higher levels today. I feel that under overall positive tone the stock could reach $120+ in coming weeks.

Note that Citigroup is out with a positive Fert. call this AM, pushing Potash (NYSE:POT) as their Top Pick. This will surely help the positive sentiment.

Global Investing Roundups

Money Morning — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 22:01:52 +0000

New Home Sales Plummet; Mexico Staves off U.S. Slowdown; Monsanto Reaps Big Rewards; MasterCard Pays AmEx $1.8 Billion; Buffett Concerned About Stagflation; Reduced Damages for Exxon; Nike Strong... Money Morning is here to help investors profit han...

Agricultural Chemicals Return to Highs

Steve Patterson — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 15:16:00 +0000

After a month long sell-off that saw Mosaic Company (MOS), Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT), and Monsanto Company (MON) dip from 4-15%, the agricultural chemical companies have rebounded to new highs within the last two weeks. Monsanto is still close to a new high with Mosaic and Potash striking new highs on Wednesday.

Dow & Monsanto Venture

Todd Sullivan — Mon, 17 Sep 2007 14:22:11 +0000

On May 25th I posted “Dow has long coveted Dupont’s (DD) seed business an the offer was an attempt to get it. Since that seems to have failed, could a Monsanto (MON) joint venture be coming? It would be a way for Dow (DOW) to get heavily into the seed business and provide Monsanto cheaper [...]