Every fall, especially in opportunity rich markets like this, I encourage investors to think about some year-end strategies that make the final calendar quarter a special time in all markets. Several forces are at work, all of which have links to conventional Wall Street wisdom; none of which promote good long-term investment decision-making.

This year, we have the added excitement of anticipating a new, perhaps economically too liberal, administration taking over with an already implanted, and demonstatably inept, congress. The markets are in a truly unprecedented state of “uncertainty overload”. What’s an investor to do— or not to do?

Typically, the November syndrome has features that impact in both directions. It causes weak prices to fall even further and strong prices to climb higher. This year, the strong category requires a microscope for candidate viewing, while the weak seem to …

Location-Channel: CNBC Asia Day and Date: Monday, 14th July 2008 Hong Kong Time: 12:10 (i.e. lunch) read more

I have not written in some time about a theme that I think is an important one. Skeptics could probably argue that the reason I haven’t written about it was that the recent facts have contradicted my belief, though the fact is just that I haven’t gotten around to it. So, to put the cards back on the table, it is time to talk about valuation cycles. Many people can tell you that the average market P/E over the long term is something like 15 times. Of course, “average” doesn’t imply that the P/E is always 15. About half the time it is higher, and about half the time it is lower. The trick is figuring out in advance which half is which. In behavioral finance, some would argue that the market follows long-term trends in valuation. Rising valuations spark investor interest, and additional investors adding money to the market causes ...