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Who Needs Friends . . .

Robert Amsterdam (October 29th, 2009) Writes:
On RFE/RL, Irina Severin ponders the reasons why politicians in ex-Soviet states are so willing to solicit Russian friendliness, when there may be little to thank the Kremlin for in the long-run.  Severin examines Moldova, where ex-President Vladimir Voronin was lavished with attention prior to the elections, to be unceremoniously ignored after losing, and poses an apposite question: does new front runner Marian Lupu really want to waltz with Medvedev - knowing that the President is always seeking more flexible partners?  And is backing from the Kremlin the kiss of life, or the kiss of death?  Why are politicians in the former Soviet countries so eager to have their picture taken with the president of Russia? For the most part, Russia's neighbors associate Russia with unexpected gas cuts, gas-price increases, and painful embargoes that produce misery throughout society. So ...

RA’s Daily Russian News Blast – October 1, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (October 1st, 2009) Writes:
r-1.jpeg TODAY: EU Russia-Georgia report out! Tilted towards blame on Georgia; Russia claims vindication on who started it issue; denies report's accusations of Moscow violating international laws; PR machines crank up on both sides.  PACE to vote today on rights; Yushchenko says he will meet Medvedev despite recent freeze in relations; Medvedev to ditch Putin's wordsmith? 'Open hostilities began with a large-scale Georgian military operation against the town of Tskhinvali and the surrounding areas, launched in the night of 7 to 8 August 2008' - the Telegraph quotes the EU report which suggests the blame for starting the war lies with Georgia, whose actions in South Ossetia were unjustifiable under international law.  Reuters argues the report is 'likely ...

The Moldovan Kingmaker

Robert Amsterdam (August 3rd, 2009) Writes:
lupu080309.jpgThe Financial Times has an interesting piece about the former Moldovan Communist Party leader Marian Lupu, who is playing a central role in the current events in Chisinau.  Lupu will essentially be the main coordinator of whatever political alliance able to cobble itself together to pick a new president to replace Vladimir Voronin ... if possible.

"We need a very broad political dialogue . . . since no party has enough votes to appoint a president," said Mr Lupu.

Together, the four opposition parties have a four-seat majority over the Communists in the 101-member legislature, but they are eight votes short of being able to appoint a head of state.

"The Communists will try to divide and rule," said Mr Lupu. "So first we have to reach a common position

...

RA’s Daily Russian News Blast – July 31, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (July 31st, 2009) Writes:
med.jpg TODAY: Medvedev pushes for cooperation in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan.  Lavrov says no justification for Ukrainian expulsions; mortars rumble in South Ossetia as anniversary tensions brew; Russia puts the no in NATO.  Journalist denied entry to Lithuania. No smokes for soldiers.In his meeting with leaders of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan President Medvedev spoke of their 'common space', 'which should be filled with all sorts of projects' emphasizing energy, trade and transport.  Will today's CSTO summit be hindered by differences?  In the capital of South Ossetia two loud explosions have been reported, serving an an early reminder of the imminent anniversary of last year's 5 day war.  South Ossetia apparently intends to demand the ...

Moldova’s Anti-Climatic Election

Robert Amsterdam (July 30th, 2009) Writes:
moldova073009.jpgAs readers are likely aware, things are more or less the same in Chisinau following the hotly contested and flawed election.  The opposition to Vladimir Voronin and the Communist Party gained 53 seats in the parliament, which is enough to form a government, but it falls eight votes short of getting the presidency ... meaning that Voronin can probably hang on.  Europe sure didn't try very hard to win over the population, while the Chinese and Russians pumped in money and guns.Two things worth reading today - first is of course Scraps of Moscow, where Lyndon has some great posts about going to vote at a polling station in London, preceded by a survey of the media ...

RA’s Daily Russian News Blast – July 30, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (July 30th, 2009) Writes:
PH2009072900273.jpgTODAY: Russia-leaning communists toppled in Moldova; tit for tat diplomacy on Ukrainian diplomat spat.  Russia seeks second base in Kyrgyzstan; Georgia war report delayed.  Space officials complain about US shuttle jet lag.  Solzhenitsyn's widow anti-propaganda. President Medvedev is expected to wield Russian influence in Dushanbe today at a security summit with the leaders of Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan.   Ria-Novosti reports that Tajikistan wants Russia to begin paying for use of a military base on its territory and demands that Russian border guards leave.  Kyrgyzstan has agreed to accommodate a second Russian military base in the country's southern region.  It looks like pro-Western opposition parties have unseated the ruling Communist government in Moldova.  As President Voronin ...

Sovereign Subprime Lending Is Officially In The House

Robert Amsterdam (July 29th, 2009) Writes:

During a business trip to Ghana last year, I got into a casual conversation at one point with a local mining executive about the West-vs.-China dynamic when it comes to thinking about the intersection of business, politics and development aid in Africa. And this executive said to me something that I will never forget: "The West tells Africa what it needs. The Chinese give Africa what it wants."

So now we have the news that China is offering a $1 billion line of credit to Moldova, doubling the amount Moscow promised and dwarfing by a factor of more than 40 the funding available from the U.S. Millennium Challenge Account.

Reports so far have not detailed what, if any, political price comes attached with this largesse, but its relative scale - Moldova's GDP is a mere $8 billion and its budget $1.5 billion

...

RA’s Daily Russian News Blast – July 29, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (July 29th, 2009) Writes:
PH2009072900279.jpgTODAY: Russia warns against US joining monitoring in Georgia; Lavrov unfazed by Biden's comments. US says Russia could still join NATO.  Ambassador to Britain claims no legal basis for British Council activities in Moscow. Moldova election kicks off.  Russian UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin has said that Georgia's movements on the frontier with South Ossetia and Abkhazia are 'categorically inflating political and military hysteria'.  A high-ranking diplomat has said that including the US in monitoring missions in Georgia would be 'extremely harmful' and would raise 'the likelihood of border provocations,' as well as endangering the reset.   Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has downplayed Joe Biden's 'Bush-like' comments as 'not normative', saying that US voters who ...

The Race Away from Russia

Robert Amsterdam (July 20th, 2009) Writes:
lukashenko072009.jpgReuters points out some members of the CIS are having some disagreements with the Kremlin.

This year's Presidential Cup horse race, a traditional cue for an informal gathering of the 11-member Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), drew only five top guests: the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Tajikistan.

The presidents of Ukraine, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan all failed to show up, citing personal reasons. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko went instead to ride a Harley-Davidson at a local bikers' rally.

"The CIS leaders used the chance ... to show they are unhappy with the state of relations with Russia," said Alexei Mukhin, head

...

Wonks Weigh In: What White House Would Want

Robert Amsterdam (July 2nd, 2009) Writes:

I just couldn't resist the alliteration temptation. What we're looking at here is the broader directions that should result from next week's Obama-Medvedev powwow.

Former U.S. National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski offers a three-pronged strategy in the Financial Times for President Obama when he travels to Moscow next week. In the July/August issue of Foreign Affairs, Robert Legvold offers a template for improving US-Russia relations in general. Since this is a blog, and not a newspaper or brick-sized bi-monthly periodical, I'm going to reverse engineer the formats of these two articles into what should be an easy reference in the future for those not willing to plow through a 6,000-word appeal to the Obama Administration to redesign relations with Russia NOW. First, Brzezinski:

Goal 1: Advance US-Russian co-operation in areas where mutual interests coincide. ...

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