Just a quick post to highlight the OECD's recent forecast [0] for the US (-7.2% SAAR decline in 2009Q1), and e-forecasting's latest take (6.8% SAAR decline in 2009M03).

Figure 1: Real GDP from BEA (blue bars), and Macroeconomic Advisers 3/13 (red), e-forecasting 4/3 (blue). Tan shaded area indicates OECD 3/31 forecast for 2009Q1. Source: BEA, GDP release of 26 March 2009; Macroeconomic Advisers [xls], e-forecasting, OECD, and NBER.

Note that forecasted GDP (in the tan shaded area) is above the level implied by e-forecasting. E-forecasting's estimate is that GDP will be down by 9.9% (SAAR) in 2009Q1. If this more dire forecast proves accurate (Deutsche Bank predicts -8.0% SAAR), then -- as Brad Delong likes to say -- we'll need a bigger stimulus package.

See also Calculated Risk's discussion of the employment report: [1], [2], [3].

Side note: for those wanting to

...

I discussed current economic conditions and the prospects for the Obama stimulus plan on Kerri Miller's "Midmorning" show on Minnesota Public Radio today. Capital Gains and Games' Stan Collender was also speaking. Here's a link to the audio.

Side comment: It's an interesting world when our blog affiliations are the defining feature of one's credentials...links to both of our blogs are on the website for that show.

This morning, I had the pleasure of discussing this issue with GMU's Russell Robert on Minnesota Public Radio's Midmorning show. The link is here.