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Reforms and Military Defeat

Robert Amsterdam (October 9th, 2009) Writes:
While my editor was busily working away yesterday, Ariel Cohen had an opinion piece run in the New York Times.  Upon seeing the headline and lede, I was worried that we were going to see yet another one of those "there's a rift between Putin and Medvedev"-type articles which we have seen so much of over the past year, but Cohen is a little more careful than that in his argument.  Of course Medvedev's "Forward, Russia!" article and the quip about the blood tests have clearly illustrated that he feels, or wants us to believe that he feels, that he is a different kind of leader from Putin.  However, as Ariel's op/ed points out, this is all just a rhetorical exercise for the time being, so long as the reformers are without influence.

Some symbolic rifts have also

...

Today in Russian Business – September 22, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (September 22nd, 2009) Writes:
According to Bloomberg, Russia will soon recommence asset sales to offset its first budget deficit in ten years.  Russian Railways head Vladimir Yakunin told the Reuters Russia Investment Summit that the state will need an even bigger role in financial affairs because of the economic crisis.  Mikhail Gorbachev has criticized Vladimir Putin for not using the boom years of flowing petrodollars to modernize the economy.  Rusal's Libya excursion was apparently an attempt to sell 10% of the company to the Libyan Investment Authority.  The Moscow Times has an op-ed piece on the perils of being a small business in Russia.  Tagaz has denied that it stole the technological design of the Chevrolet Lacetti to make its own equivalent sedan.  In August retail sales declined by 9.8%, the sharpest drop in ten years.  The biggest maker ...

Energy Blast – August 11, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (August 11th, 2009) Writes:
Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin has said there is no immediate necessity for Russia to extend a loan to Ukraine to ensure its buying of natural gas.  In a highly critical open letter to Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, Dmitry Medvedev has accused Ukraine of endangering gas supplies to Europe and destabilizing relations with Russia: 'we have an impression that Kiev consistently seeks to break traditional economic ties with Russia, firstly in the energy sector'.  Hungary's largest oil refiner Mol will set up a joint venture with Gazprom this year to build a natural-gas storage facility in Hungary, in which both companies will have equal stakes.  The Times reports that Al Gore and Mikhail Gorbachev are reportedly in direct competition over who will control the new 'green' internet domain .eco. Former Us Vice President Gore has pledged his support ...

Sick Attachments

Robert Amsterdam (June 9th, 2009) Writes:
Vladimir Ryzhkov makes a rather convincing point about President Medvedev's efforts to prevent the "falsification" of history - that the best way to do this would indeed be to fully open up the Soviet archives.  Sure, one could imagine that there would be some unpleasant revelations along with the exonerations - as there would be for almost any government - but fears of exposing the conduct of Russia's secret service forebearers is not sufficient reason to keep the archives under lock and key.  As it currently stands, this secrecy imparts some sort of sense of guilt or shame over what resides in the archives, instead of the confidence of openness and the perspective that the Russian Federation cannot be responsible for the past conduct of the Soviet Union.Most of the documents connected with the 1940 execution of more than 20,000 ...

RA’s Daily Russian News Blast – June 8, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (June 8th, 2009) Writes:
front.jpgTODAY: Kremlin downplays hopes of START breakthrough; Belarus won't offer political support for money; Gorbachev argues need for perestroika on global level; Putin playing to the crowd, Medvedev left in the wings?; Litvinenko suspect to sit in duma; Sochi construction chief ousted The Kremlin is being 'pragmatic' and does not have 'high expectations of the outcome' of Obama's upcoming Moscow trip, saying as long as the issue of missile defense remains 'unclear', it will be unwilling to reduce its own weaponry.  Mikhail Gorbachev has penned an article in the Washington Post suggesting that the US is in need of its own perestroika.  Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko has rejected Russia's offers of a $500 million loan as it is reportedly contingent upon ...

American Perestroika

Robert Amsterdam (June 7th, 2009) Writes:

Mikhail Gorbachev has some advice for the United States in today's Washington Post (also see Mikhail Khodorkovsky's very similar "global perestroika"):

Elements of such a model already exist in some countries. Having rejected the tutorials of the International Monetary Fund, countries such as Malaysia and Brazil have achieved impressive rates of economic growth. China and India have pulled hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. By mobilizing state resources, France has built a system of high-speed railways, while Canada provides free health care. Among the new democracies, Slovenia and Slovakia have been able to mitigate the social consequences of market reforms.The time has come for "creative construction," for striking the right balance between the government and the market, for integrating social and environmental factors and demilitarizing the economy.Washington will have to play a special ...

RA’s Daily Russian News Blast – May 14, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (May 14th, 2009) Writes:
r691979145.jpg TODAY: Energy war a real risk says Kremlin security report; Gorbachev complains Russia misunderstood on international scene; more talk of Putin comeback; Russia vetoes OSCE mission in Georgia; gay demonstrators risk violence at Saturday marchA new security policy paper has highlighted espionage and the fragility of the economy as threats to Russian security.  Energy is however the main issue: 'in a competition for resources, problems that involve the use of military force cannot be excluded', the paper warns.  According to the Times, the Arctic is cited as the focal point for energy conflicts.  Is the fact that the Kremlin's report was published on the same day as the UN's deadline for filing claims to the seabed coincidence or publicity stunt?  Russia ...

War, What is it Good For?

Robert Amsterdam (May 13th, 2009) Writes:
war_cartoon051309.jpgIn what may be the understatement of the year, Mikhail Gorbachev complains that Europe misunderstands Russia: Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev says Western portrayals of Russia as an aggressive, imperialist nation are "nonsense."Gorbachev said Wednesday that Europe misunderstands Russia and stressed that his country does not want military confrontation with anyone.It's not difficult to see where these portrayals of Russia come from.  Earlier in the day, a Kremlin policy paper signed by the president struck a much different tone, warning that armed conflict may break out at its borders over energy resources.

"The international policy in the long run will be focused on getting hold of energy sources, including in the Middle East, the Barents Sea shelf and other Arctic regions, the Caspian and

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RA’s Daily Russian News Blast – May 7, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (May 7th, 2009) Writes:
capt.photo_1241611092404-2-0.jpgTODAY: Georgian tensions continue; 'counterproductive' is NATO's word on Russian expulsions; Eastern partnership a risky undertaking for the EU?; Sochi is apparently secure and within schedule; first attempt at gay marriage in Russia; anti-Gorbachev plotter diesNATO envoy Dmitry Rogozin has commented it would be better for NATO to undertake their war games 'in a madhouse' than in a country where troops were 'rioting against their own president'; the digruntled diplomat expounds his issues with NATO in a piece he has written for the New York Times.  'Very unfortunate and counterproductive' is how NATO perceives of Russia's expulsion of its diplomats.  Reuters features an analysis.  Could a free trade agreement help smooth relations between Georgia and Russia?  The Defense Ministry has ...

Video-o-rama: Economy – recovery or relapse?

Prieur du Plessis (April 24th, 2009) Writes:

The video clips below come via my hotel room at Dana Point, California, where I am attending a conference hosted by Rob Arnott’s Research Affiliates. Also present are financial luminaries such as Peter Bernstein, Burton Malkiel, Harry Markowitz and Jack Treynor. It will be fascinating to hear whether these gentlemen see any signs of the economy starting to bottom, and how they are investing at this juncture.

On the video front, the IMF upped its forecast of total global credit crisis-related losses to $4.1 trillion by the end of 2010 and the Congressional Oversight Panel on Tarp conducted a hearing on Capitol Hill, whereas a host of commentators - including Martin Feldstein, Joseph Stiglitz, Nouriel Roubini, Frederic Mishkin, Paul McCulley and John Mauldin - weighed in with a combination of gloomy and “bottom-in-sight” economic forecasts, as well as comments on the imminent results of the

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