Ctrip.com (CTRP) is an interesting thesis right here - one could make an arguement that as China slows so will travel, but it is all relative ("slowing" in China is a very different proposition than the US - i.e. GDP dropping from 12% growth to 6% growth would seem like a recession for them, while in the US we would dream for 6% growth). That said a major risk would be the post Olympics removal of energy subsidies which would put a serious crimp in the growth story there. We shall see how it plays out. All I know is for nearly 5 years, when I buy Ctrip.com on dips I am always rewarded over time - even though it is ALWAYS expensive on a P/E basis. Much like the DryShips purchase I don't expect any huge rebound anytime soon, and thus I am (as always) ...

In this environment, unlike most of the past 2 months we have to pick spots and assume our purchases (as we layer in) will lose money in the near term. This is different than when we buy a pullback in a market that is generally in an uptrend (mid March to late May) - where when you make a purchase on a pullback, you expect a quick bounce. So with that in mind, I am continuing to rebuild a position in DryShips (DRYS), the dry bulk shipper (with deep sea drilling thrown in); but not expecting any sustained move up in the near term. But my first buy target has been reached, so I am executing a purchase.Now, as the rest of Wall Street joins my thesis (eventually) of a global slowdown these stocks could take it on the chin from a perception point ...