The Pier Shops at Caesars is a 282,000 square feet shopping center in which Taubman owns a 77.5% stake. The company considers net operating income from the property to be insufficient to repay its $135 million non-recourse mortgage debt. Thus, it will write down book value of the asset by $106 million to $111 million, out of which Taubman has a share of about $100 million to $105 million.

Regency Square is an 820,000 square feet shopping center housing leading fashion retailers like Macy’s Inc. (M), J. C. Penney Co. Inc. (JCP) and Sears Holding Corp. (SHLD). Taubman anticipates cash flow from the property to be hurt by the decline in its net operating income and necessary capital expenditures. It is accordingly writing down book value of the asset by $55 million to $58 million to approximately $30 million.

Taubman owns, develops, acquires and operates regional and super-regional shopping centers throughout the U.S. and Asia. Retail shopping centers spanning over 400,000 square feet of gross leaseable area (GLA) are generally referred to as regional shopping centers, while those with GLA in excess of 800,000 square feet are called super-regional shopping centers. A large number of these shopping centers are strategically located in major metropolitan areas, including Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Detroit, Phoenix, Miami, Dallas, Tampa, Orlando and Washington DC.

Shares of this Zacks #1 Rank ("Strong Buy") stock has surged more than 22% so far today, accompanied by extraordinarily high volume of about 8.5 million, compared to the average daily volume of around 251,000.

The Japanese company has offered $16.50 to acquire each share of Noven, a premium of 22% over Noven's closing price on Monday. Boards of both the companies have already approved the deal and the tender offer is likely to begin from Jul 28 and continue for 20 business days.

As per the deal, Noven is likely to continue operations as a standalone unit from its current facilities in Miami and New York with its existing work force. The company also said that Jeffrey F. Eisenberg will be named Noven's president & CEO after the deal is complete.

The acquisition will enable Hisamitsu, which currently has a 4.9% stake in Noven, to expand its presence in the U.S., as well as harness Noven's technologies related to drug delivery through the skin for new product development.

Meanwhile, Noven, in a separate release, announced positive results from its Phase 2 clinical study evaluating Mesafem for the treatment of vasomotor symptoms (hot flashes) associated with menopause. Encouraged by the results, the company plans to initiate Phase 3 development of the drug by the end of this year.

After 15 years of litigation, The New York State Court of Appeals – the highest court in the state – ruled against Taubman and upheld the plea of local activists on environmental grounds. In view of the court ruling, the company would probably have to write off over $150 million invested in the project.

The recent court order forbids Taubman to develop a high-end mall at the site and leaves it with three options – a) accepting defeat and selling the land; b) contemplating a mixed-use development; or c) re-appealing against the court order. A spokesperson said that the company is currently evaluating all options before taking a final call on the decision.

Taubman owns, develops, acquires and operates regional shopping centers throughout the US. A large number of these shopping centers are strategically located in major metropolitan areas, including Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Detroit, Phoenix, Miami, Dallas, Tampa, Orlando and Washington DC.

The Oyster Bay project had been a continuous drag on the company’s earnings. During the fourth quarter of 2008, Taubman recorded $116 million as impairment charges for the project due to continued delay and uncertainty regarding completion of the project.

Taubman has a high quality roster of high-end and specialty retailers at its malls and commands some of the highest rents in its sector. High-end and specialty retailers have been the hit hardest in the current recession and this trend will continue through at least the end of this year.

The recent spate of unfavorable court rulings would also add to the woes of the company. However, we think Taubman is better positioned than many peers due to its clean balance sheet and minimal debt maturities. We reiterate our Hold rating of the company.

Watsco, Inc. (WSO) said that it completed its previously announced joint-venture, named Carrier Enterprises LLC, with Carrier Corporation. Watsco is the largest distributor of air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment as well as related parts and supplies (HVAC/R) in the United States. Carrier, a unit of United Technologies Corp., provides heating, air-conditioning and refrigeration solutions with operations in more than 170 countries.
 
Watsco owns 60% of the joint venture with options to purchase an additional 20% from Carrier in future years. Carrier Enterprises will operate 110 locations in 20 states and Puerto Rico, the Caribbean and Latin America and serve over 19,000 air conditioning and heating contractors. Carrier is contributing 95 locations in the U.S. Sunbelt and Puerto Rico and the export division located in Miami, Florida, while Watsco is contributing 15 locations in 8 states. The operations will sell Carrier, Bryant and Payne-branded residential and light-commercial air conditioning and heating equipment (80% of sales) and a complementary array of parts and supplies (20% of sales).
 
Watsco targets increasing its market share through acquisitions and by boosting its product offering. The joint-venture with Carrier will add significant new product groups to the company's sales mix. Also, this transaction will mark Watsco's entry into international markets with the addition of the Latin American and Caribbean sales operations of Carrier Enterprises.
 
The company estimates that approximately 80% of the U.S. industry sales are tied to the replacement market and are expected to increase as more energy-efficient units replace old units over the next decade. Watsco will benefit from the new economic stimulus legislation, which provides tax credits to homeowners for adding high-efficiency air conditioners or furnaces, covering 30% of the costs up to a total of $1,500. According to the management, this tax credit, along with local utility rebates currently offered to consumers for upgrading their air conditioning systems, provides Watsco another opportunity to enhance the sales penetration of high-efficiency systems.
 
Given its wide distribution network and broad product offering, we believe Watsco is well positioned to take advantage of the growth potential in the replacement market for HVAC products.
 

HIGH PROBABILITY TRADES USING THE CROSSHAIRS TRADER INTELLIGENCE REPORT

1. THE CROSSHAIRS TRADER DICTIONARY: COORDINATED ATTACK WHEN TRADING OPTIONS
2. OIL INVENTORY REPORT: OPPORTUNITIES ABOUND
3. THE CROSSHAIRS TRADER DICTIONARY: INTRODUCTION TO BATTLEFIELD TERRAIN

Although the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price indexes kept dropping in February, some good signs did appear.

For the first time in 16 months, the benchmarks' fall didn't set new records, according to the latest monthly results released on Tuesday. That was seen as at least some sign of progress for the heavily depleted housing market.

Nearly all of the major metro areas followed by the index, which benchmarks existing single-family home prices across the country, showed improvement from January.

"We will certainly need a few more months of data before we can determine if home prices are finally turning around," said David Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee, in a statement.

All 20 metro areas covered by the indexing series produced a monthly decline in February. However, some 16 of the 20 metro areas saw an improvement in their monthly returns compared with January. "Furthermore, this is the first month since October 2007 where the 10- and 20-City composites [benchmarks] did not post a record annual decline," added Blitzer.

Still, average U.S. home prices are at similar levels to where they were in the third quarter of 2003. From the peak in mid-2006, the 10-City Composite Index was down 31.6% and the 20-City Composite was down 30.7% through February 2009.

From the U.S. housing market's peak through February 2009, Dallas has suffered the least. Average home prices in that metropolitan market were down 11.1% from peak levels in June 2007. Meanwhile, Phoenix was down 50.8% from its peak in June 2006.

Cleveland was the only metro area having a record monthly decline, returning -5.0%. Besides that metro area, home prices in Charlotte, New York and Washington were the only areas showing larger declines in February than the previous month.

But all 20 major metro areas remained steeped in double-digit declines from their peaks. In fact, 10 of those posted February declines of greater than 30% and seven of those—Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, San Francisco and San Diego—in excess of 40%.

On an annualized basis, three metro areas fared the best:

• Dallas dropped 4.5% and turned in the best performance, returning -0.3%

• Denver fell some 5.7%

• Boston lost 7.2%

The three worst-performing cities continue to be from the Sunbelt, all reporting negative returns in excess of 30%:

• Phoenix was down 35.2%

• Las Vegas declined 31.7%

• San Francisco fell 31%

Although the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices indexes kept dropping in February, some good signs did appear.

For the first time in 16 months, the benchmarks' fall didn't set new records, according to the latest monthly results released on Tuesday. That was seen as at least some sign of progress for the heavily depleted housing market.

Nearly all of the major metro areas followed by the index, which benchmarks existing single-family home prices across the country, showed improvement from January.

"We will certainly need a few more months of data before we can determine if home prices are finally turning around," said David Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee, in a statement.

All 20 metro areas covered by the indexing series produced a monthly decline in February. However, some 16 of the 20 metro areas saw an improvement in their monthly returns compared to January. "Furthermore, this is the first month since October 2007 where the 10- and 20-City composites (benchmarks) did not post a record annual decline," added Blitzer.

Still, average U.S. home prices are at similar levels to where they were in the third quarter of 2003. From the peak in mid-2006, the 10-city composite index was down 31.6% and the 20-city composite was down 30.7% through February 2009.

From the U.S. housing market's peak through February 2009, Dallas has suffered the least. Average home prices in that metropolitan market were down 11.1% from peak levels in June 2007. Meanwhile, Phoenix was down 50.8% from its peak in June 2006.

Cleveland was the only metro area having a record monthly decline, returning -5.0%. Besides that metro area, home prices in Charlotte, New York and Washington were the only areas showing larger declines in February than the previous month.

But all 20 major metro areas remained steeped in double-digit declines from their peaks. In fact, 10 of those posted February declines of greater than 30% and seven of those -- Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, San Francisco and San Diego -- in excess of 40%.

On an annualized basis, three metro areas fared the best on an annualized basis:

• Dallas dropped 4.5% and turned in the best performance, returning -0.3%

• Denver fell some 5.7%

• Boston lost 7.2%

The three worst performing cities continue to be from the Sunbelt, all reporting negative returns in excess of 30%:

• Phoenix was down 35.2%

• Las Vegas declined 31.7%

• San Francisco fell 31%

The decline in housing values is really at the core of the current economic troubles. To be more precise, it was the unwarranted rise in those housing values (which are now returning to earth) that was the core problem -- it is just that the pain is felt on the downside of the bubble.

The continuing decline in housing prices will lead to more people being underwater on their homes. That will lead to more foreclosures (and rising unemployment will speed that process along). Those foreclosures will cause more pressure on bank balance sheets.

Since the administration seems intent on being extremely nice to the bankers, it means that there will be more taxpayer money flowing to the coffers of the banks to shore them up. It certainly does not come as a surprise that Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) are likely to need to raise more capital. However, if recent history is any guide (under both the Obama and Bush administrations), they will probably get it from the government on extremely preferential terms, with the government going out of its way to asset any ownership rights that might protect the taxpayers.

The decline in housing values also means that those still with positive equity in their houses will have less of it, further diminishing retirement nest eggs for millions. This will keep the pressure on for people to try to save out of current income. That is a good thing over the long run, but the savings will come at the expense of consumption, and the lower consumption will further depress the economy.

On the bright side, young people (and renters) may actually be able to afford a house in the near future. They will need a low monthly mortgage payment given the amount of taxes they will have to pay in the future given the debt the country is taking on to make sure that bankers can live in the style that they have become accustomed to.

The homebuilding major reported a first-quarter loss of 98 cents per share, amid a worsening slump in the housing market. Analysts were expecting a loss of 71 cents per share.

The Miami-based company recorded 45% year-on-year decline in revenues to $593.1 million. LEN also said that it wrote down $10.2 million for 1,100 sites where it has discontinued construction.

"Despite historically low interest rates and some indicators pointing toward market stabilization, low consumer confidence, increased unemployment and growing foreclosure rates negatively impacted new home sales in most of our markets," chief executive Stuart Miller said.

Analysts have reduced earnings estimates for fiscal 2009 by 6 cents over the past month. The negative surprise is could cause further downward revision in estimates over the next several quarters.

LEN is a Zacks #3 Rank ("Hold") stock.

More ugly real estate news came out Tuesday as the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index in December showed its largest quarterly fall in the 21-year history of the indexing series. 

The drop-off in the final quarter of 2008 by the benchmark – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – represented an 18.2% decline from the same period a year ago. S&P reported that the 10-City and 20-City composite indexes also set new records, with annual declines of 19.2% and 18.5%, respectively.

With completed December data, S&P is now saying that domestic home prices have been falling nationwide for two straight years, covering 2007 and 2008. 

"The broad downturn in the residential real estate market continues,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s, in a statement. “There are very few, if any, pockets of turnaround that one can see in the data."

The picture remained bleak in December as all of the 20 metro areas covered by the indexes were reporting annual declines. In fact, eight of those areas had negative rates exceeding 20%. And looking at annualized data, some 13 of the 20 metro areas have been reporting consecutive record declines since December 2007.

Breaking down the data on a monthly basis shows a similar trend. All of the metro areas had at least four consecutive months of negative returns in the past two years. As of December, the average U.S. home price was at a similar level as in the third quarter of 2003. From the housing market's peak in the second quarter of 2006, average home prices are down 26.7%.

Still, some bright spots did show up, although few and far between. Five metro areas -- Boston, Denver, Los Angeles, San Diego and Washington, D.C. -- saw some improvement. Those areas' rates of decline were less in December 2008 than in the previous December.  Also, Detroit showed a slight improvement in monthly returns, but fell harder in 2008 on an annualized basis.

The most recent index data through December also reported that:

• The seven worst-performing cities in terms of year-over-year declines continue to be from the sunbelt, reporting negative returns in excess of 20%. Phoenix was down 34.0%, Las Vegas reported -33.0% and San Francisco fell 31.2%.
• Denver, Dallas, Cleveland and Boston faired the best in terms of annual declines down 4.0%, 4.3%, 6.1% and 7.0%, respectively.
• Dallas was down just 8.6% from its peak in June 2007, while Phoenix is down 45.5% from its peak in June of 2006. Eighteen of the 20 metro areas were in double-digit declines from their peaks, with half of the metro areas posting declines of greater than 20% and four of those (Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and San Francisco) in excess of 40%.

More ugly real estate news came out Tuesday as the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index in December showed its largest quarterly fall in the 21-year history of the indexing series. 

The drop-off in the final quarter of 2008 by the benchmark—which covers all nine U.S. census divisions—represented an 18.2% decline from the same period a year ago. S&P reported that the 10-City and 20-City composite indexes also set new records, with annual declines of 19.2% and 18.5%, respectively.

With completed December data, S&P is now saying that domestic home prices have been falling nationwide for two straight years, covering 2007 and 2008. 

"The broad downturn in the residential real estate market continues,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s, in a statement. “There are very few, if any, pockets of turnaround that one can see in the data."

The picture remained bleak in December as all of the 20 metro areas covered by the indexes were reporting annual declines. In fact, eight of those areas had negative rates exceeding 20%. And looking at annualized data, some 13 of the 20 metro areas have been reporting consecutive record declines since December 2007.

Breaking down the data on a monthly basis shows a similar trend. All of the metro areas had at least four consecutive months of negative returns in the past two years. As of December, the average U.S. home price was at a similar level as in the third quarter of 2003. From the housing market's peak in the second quarter of 2006, average home prices are down 26.7%.

Still, some bright spots did show up, although few and far between. Five metro areas—Boston, Denver, Los Angeles, San Diego and Washington, D.C.—saw some improvement. Those areas' rates of decline were less in December 2008 than in the previous December. Also, Detroit showed a slight improvement in monthly returns, but fell harder in 2008 on an annualized basis.

The most recent index data through December also reported that:

• The seven worst-performing cities in terms of year-over-year declines continue to be from the sunbelt, reporting negative returns in excess of 20%. Phoenix was down 34.0%, Las Vegas reported -33.0% and San Francisco fell 31.2%.
• Denver, Dallas, Cleveland and Boston fared the best in terms of annual declines, down 4.0%, 4.3%, 6.1% and 7.0%, respectively.
• Dallas was down just 8.6% from its peak in June 2007, while Phoenix is down 45.5% from its peak in June of 2006. Eighteen of the 20 metro areas were in double-digit declines from their peaks, with half of the metro areas posting declines of greater than 20%, and four of those (Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and San Francisco) in excess of 40%.

Using the Zacks Rank, and understanding how it takes advantage of changes in estimates, can help investors receive insight on where a stock may be headed.

Investors who want a broader picture can also take advantage of the Zack Industry Rank.

The Zack Industry Rank

The Zacks Industry Rank is based on the highly successful Zacks Rank indicator. As many of you already know, the Zacks Rank is our proprietary quantitative model that uses trends in earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises to classify stocks into five groups:

#1 = Strong Buy
#2 = Buy
#3 = Hold
#4 = Sell
#5 = Strong Sell

Click here to read the complete explanation of the Zack Industry Rank.

Taking a look at the some of the stronger performing industries, the medical outpatient/home care industry stands out as a compelling investment idea. With a Zacks Industry Rank of 6 out of 217, it the highest ranked industry that offers the most companies.

The preceding 5 industries, which range from steel to retail, are generally volatile and are somewhat wild cards in this environment. Also, each of the 5 industries offers no more than 5 companies, versus 34 companies listed under the 6th ranked medical outpatient/home care industry.

Three companies within the medical outpatient/home care space are Chemed Corp. ( CHE), Odyssey Healthcare Inc. ( ODSY) and Emergency Medical Services Corp. (EMS). CHE and ODSY provide hospice services. EMS provides emergency medical services.

3 Bullish Plays

The hospice market has seen substantial growth, driven largely by an increasing awareness of hospice care and financial support under Medicare. Growth momentum should continue given the aging population and growing awareness.

Chemed Corporation (CHE), a Zacks #1 Rank (“strong buy”), operates in the healthcare field through its Vitas Healthcare Corporation (Vitas) subsidiary, and in the residential and commercial repair and maintenance service industry under the name Roto-Rooter. The company has evolved since its incorporation in 1970 through numerous acquisitions and divestments of diversified businesses.

Vitas Healthcare Corporation (Vitas), based in Miami, Florida, is the nation's largest provider of hospice services with about a 7% share of the U.S. hospice market. Vitas commenced operations in 1978 and incorporated in 1983 as a for-profit organization. Vitas Healthcare currently provides services to almost 9,000 patients from 44 hospice programs in 11 states.

On October 21, the company announced 3Q08 financial results, posting earnings per share 79 cents. The result topped the consensus estimate by 4% and surpassed the year-prior total. Consolidated revenue from continuing operations jumped 6% year-over-year to $288.3M.

Take a look at the latest Zacks Equity Research report on CHE.

Odyssey HealthCare, Inc. (ODSY), one of only two publicly traded pure-play hospice providers, Odyssey was founded in 1995 and has since expanded rapidly.

The company provides for all medical and psychosocial care, as well as certain other support services associated with patients terminal illnesses. Odyssey's service offerings include Routine Home Care, General Inpatient Care, Continuous Home Care, and Respite Care.

The bulk of Odyssey s revenues (greater than 90%) are derived from government reimbursements under Medicare and Medicaid.

On October 28, ODSY announced 3Q08 financial results. The company reported earnings per share of 19 cents, topping the consensus estimate by 36% and surpassing the year-ago result. Consolidated net patient revenue in 3Q08 was $165.2M, up 65% year-over-year.

Take a look at the latest Zacks Equity Research report on ODSY.

Emergency Medical Services Corporation (EMS) is a leading provider of emergency medical services in the United States operating under the AMR and EmCare brands.

In FY07, AMR accounted for 57% of total revenues. Approximately 60% of AMR's net revenue is currently generated from emergency 911 ambulance transport services.

In FY07, EmCare accounted for 43% of total revenues. EmCare is the largest provider of outsourced emergency department staffing and related management services to healthcare facilities with an estimated 6% share of the total emergency department services market and a 9% share of the outsourced emergency department services market.

On October 31, 2008, EMS announced 3Q08 earnings of 66 cents, nearly doubling the previous year's 34 cents and exceeding analyst estimates by 47%. Net revenue totaled $679.3M, up 28.2% on a year-over-year basis.

Take a look at the latest Zacks Equity Research report on EMS.
"ODSY" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
"CHE1" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
"EMS2" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
Zacks Investment Research

This from Money Morning:

The U.S. housing market is already being pounded by the “perfect storm.” And the outlook for the New Year is for the stormy weather to continue – and probably to get worse.

As if a locked-up credit market and tidal waves of foreclosures weren’t already enough, we’re now watching unemployment climb and consumer confidence plunge.

But even when the housing market is taking on water, there are ways to stay afloat. Indeed, investors nimble enough to maneuver can even make money.

The watchword on this…

I spent some time looking at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's housing futures this week.  The futures are tied to the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes, and are the only liquid way to bet on where house prices are heading.

Right now, the futures all agree: home prices are going lower.

The longest-dated contract available expires November 2012. Using that contract, I looked at the most recent sale to see where the market thinks home prices will be in four years.  The data compare November 2012 vs. August 2008, because August 2008 is the last date for which we have index data available.

Those numbers don't look too bad, until you realize a few things. 

First, remember that most people buy their homes on margin.  Suppose you're considering buying a $300,000 home in Los Angeles. You've put $60,000 down.  Four years from now, you expect the home's value to decline $51,660 (17.22% of $300K). If the home price futures are right, you will lose 86% of your down payment.

No wonder homes aren't selling.

The second thing to understand is that home prices are already down big in all of these markets. The table below shows how far prices are down off their all-time highs today, and how much further they'll decline by November 2012 if the futures markets are right.

Those numbers are scary.

National home prices down 29%?  It was just a few years ago when people said we would never have a nationwide home price.

And here's the thing people aren't remembering:  These are real dollar prices, not inflation-adjusted values.  National home prices hit their peak in September 2006, and based on the CPI, inflation has risen about 5% since then. Build that into the calculator, and national home prices are actually down about 25.67% from their peak.

It's worse if you carry it forward. Consumer inflation is running about 5% per year right now.  If you run that through November 2012, national home prices will be down about 44.44% from their peak on a real-dollar basis. Las Vegas home prices will be down 56.19%.

Those are simply incredible figures.

The home price futures are thinly traded, so price discovery might not be perfect. There could be an opportunity here for someone to take the other side of the trade and bet that home prices will stabilize or even rise a little between now and 2012.

Any takers?

With this move, Royal Caribbean aims to enhance its liquidity as the weakening global economy begins to take its toll on the cruise industry. The Miami-based company now expects to save about $125 million each year.

Analysts expected this move as the company's peer, Carnival Corp., had already discontinued its dividend.

RCL is a Zacks #3 Rank ("hold") stock.

The situation is dire. GM is burning through cash at a pace that could mean bankruptcy, and all three players are struggling with high costs, weak vehicle sales, frozen credit lines and dwindling cash reserves calling into question whether they can survive much longer without government help. The answer, of course, is that…

Nickel had a very sharp late morning rally, pushing it well into positive territory, but it crashed equally hard, closing just off its intraday low at $5.1929/lb., down 20¾ cents. Zinc rallied several times, but they were just blips in a steady downtrend that took it to $0.505/lb., down 2¾ cents. Aluminum moved modestly lower, ending at $0.9122/lb., down more than a penny, while lead was weak, shedding almost two cents to $0.6677/lb.

Copper led the industrial metals lower yesterday, as Tuesday’s positive market…

More from Bob in The Sovereign Society:

Concerned about the gloomy economic situation and the liberal drift in U.S. politics, a good many Americans are seriously considering the possibility of moving themselves and their finances offshore - while they still are able to do so.

The Sovereign Society (and yours truly) have long suggested that the Republic of Panama is the ideal place for retirement, a second home, or even…

This from Today's Financial News:

Although we have heard stories of horrific markets from across the country, the really negative action is coming from just a few localities. Places like southern California, Las Vegas, Miami, and Manhattan have gotten slammed. But the true heart of the nation, places like North Dakota, Kentucky, Delaware, Colorado, Georgia and every other moderate population center, has not seen a huge plunge in its real estate market.

There is no doubt some home prices are about to drop. But will they ever see the 20% or 40% drops making headlines? I doubt it.

In the average American market, a drop of ten percent or more would be an extreme case. Most likely, thanks to mortgage rates hovering just below 6% and thoughts of the Federal Reserve dropping benchmarks even lower, potential buyers will begin to trickle in on any news of price reductions.

To prove that I think we are quite close to the bottom, I put my own money on the line and purchased a house. The asking price on this particular property has dropped by over fifteen percent since it was originally listed over nine months ago.

Like so many other properties on the market, its selling price could not go any lower or the current homeowner would be upside-down on his mortgage. In other words, he would still owe money on it after he sold it.

There are a lot of properties on the market in a similar situation, especially recently built homes. These “over-mortgaged” homes are helping the market keep from making a dramatic and sudden plunge.

Thanks to this phenomenon, the markets may slow to a crawl, but prices will not plunge.

The real estate market is making a lot of headlines and buyers are sitting on the sidelines. The wait may payoff for a few, but for most of America the bottom is so close the risk of missing out on a cheap dream house may not be worth the possible reward of saving a few bucks on your monthly mortgage payment.

Make a realtor happy and start looking for buying opportunities today.

Source: Real estate bottom: Are we there or is a major drop on the way? 

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes' 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite reached new record annual declines of 17.5% and 16.3%, respectively, through the end of July, the most recent period tracked by S&P.

The 10-City Composite Index declined at a record level for the 10^th consecutive month. Taken together, these declines far surpass the record decline of 6.3% in a similar market trough between 1990-1992.

The news is not all bad, however. Overall declines have actually slowed in home prices in the most recent three-month period.

Cumulative home prices fell 2.2% for the three months ended July, whereas for the previous two consecutive three-month periods, the cumulative home price fall was more than triple that level, between 6-6.5%.

While the slowdown in home price declines is notable across metro areas, it does not necessarily mean a bottom has been reached in the market, and some metro markets continue to post outsized declines, S&P indicated.

All 20 major metro markets are still in negative territory year-over-year, and Las Vegas (-29.9%) and Phoenix (-29.3) had annual declines nearing 30%. The Sun Belt as a whole continued to be in the dark, with its seven major metro markets all posting declines of at least 20%. Don't make a bet on Vegas' home market, either: It continues to be the big loser at the table in terms of home price declines, followed by Phoenix and Miami (-28.2%).

Other major metro markets seem on the verge of a rebound, but S&P remains cautious on outlook.

Atlanta, Dallas, Minneapolis and Tampa all showed improvements in home pricing with the new monthly and annual data, but S&P indicated the markets remained too near recent lows to be demonstrating clear evidence of a turning tide. Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Denver and Minneapolis all had positive returns for the past three months through the end of July. The smallest dips for the annual period through July were Charlotte (-1.8); Dallas (-2.5%); and Denver (-4.7%)

In the same 2007 annual period, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes fell 4.5% and 3.9%, respectively. The only five metropolitan areas last July to show positive one-year returns were Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Portland and Seattle (see story here).

The company is also investing in online content and an Internet portal. With the recent sale of the Los Angeles and Miami stations, we expect ROIAK to acquire another 10% stake in TV One in 2009, and consolidate it, providing meaningful accretion. Near term, we expect revenue and earnings to trough in 2009 but have no visibility to renewed growth.

Meanwhile, in our view, the company’s high leverage may hinder its acquisition activities in the near future and thus, its attempts to diversify. Moreover, in a period of declining earnings and cash flow, Radio One is nearing its covenant limits. The company’s leverage of 6.6x is not far from the 7.5x covenant limit, and similarly its interest coverage ratio was 1.85x, slightly above its lower limit of 1.60x. Although the company is utilizing sale proceeds to pay down debt, we think any additional near-term sales will be small and thus don’t expect debt levels to decline substantially.

Sumit Singh contributed to the report.

Read the full analyst report on ROIAK