The business world loves a good economic indicator. Chief executives, budget planners, small-business owners, and others who must make assumptions about the health and direction of the economy take a keen interest in popular indicators such as consumer confidence, gross domestic product, housing starts, stock prices, employment data, and even the price of gold.

Economic indicators may take on extra significance when the nation is in a recession and anxious for signs of a recovery because the national psyche plays a key role in business cycles. People who are not experiencing any personal financial problems may nonetheless rein in their spending or alter the timing of major purchases when the news is telling them that the national economy is in difficult straits.

Right on the Kisser

When investors and economists anticipate that the economy is approaching a turning point, they may look in some unusual places for early indications of a shift in

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The commodities markets have been kicked into high gear. As America’s lenders change their mind, the world’s mining companies are on a surefire path to riches.

If you can’t farm it, you have to mine it. It is a great message, no matter if you are an investor or an out-of-work cowboy.

Riding through the streets of Alaska’s ever-wet capital, you see all sorts of bumper stickers. There are three main categories – fishing, mining and Sarah Palin.

It is the miners getting all of the attention this week.

There are several reasons the world’s mining industry is opening a big ‘ole bottle of bubbly, but none more poignant than the fact that America is shelling out debt faster than a hot-rod blackjack dealer unloading his deck.

As Uncle Sam goes “all in,” the folks paying for Washington’s lavish lifestyle are getting nervous. For proof, I need just one set of numbers.

In July, foreign

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Investors chose to brush aside a report showing a surprise drop in retail sales, sending stocks mildly higher Thursday as retailer Wal-Mart’s better-than-expected earnings and a positive debt auction helped markets hold on to Wednesday’s rally.  Trade was choppy earlier in the session as stocks looked for direction but some bargain hunting towards the end lifted the markets.  Surprising second quarter economic growth from French and German economies also lifted sentiments on the Street.

The Dow Jones industrial average added 37 points, or 0.4%, and closed at its highest point since November 4.  The broad S&P 500 index added 7 points, or 0.7%, and closed at its highest level since October 6.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 10.63 points, or 0.5%, ending at its highest point since October 1.  On the New York Stock Exchange 776 million shares exchanged hands and advancing stocks outpaced those that fell two to one. 

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Vale SA (VALE), the world’s biggest iron-ore producer, yesterday announced its plans to offer two series of US$65.7 million convertible notes due in 2012 in the global capital markets through its wholly-owned subsidiary Vale Capital II.   In 2012 or anytime earlier, the first series of VALE-2012 notes will be compulsorily converted to American Depositary Shares (ADSs), each representing one common share of Vale, and the second series of VALE-2012 notes will be converted to ADSs, each representing one preferred class A share of Vale. Together, the ADSs will represent a total of 18.4 million common shares and 47.3 million preferred class A shares of Vale. The whole operation is expected to bring some R$$2 billion (US$1.0 billion) to Vale, which it will use to meet general corporate needs.   The uncertainty in the recovery of the global economy is affecting world metal prices. Last day base ...

From the first paragraph of my Saturday commentary…”I don’t know what it is about that [one hour and change] stretch of time between the Sydney close and the London open…but if there is going to be a down day…it starts right there a large percentage of the time.” Any questions? Actually, both gold and silver got sold off the moment that the New York bullion banks opened for business 6:00 p.m. on Sunday night…which is very early Monday morning in Far East trading. Shortly before 3:00 p.m. in Hong Kong, gold had almost made it back to unchanged…and silver was actually up a couple of cents when the hammer fell. The bottom for gold came very shortly after the London a.m. gold fix at 5:30 New York time…and in silver, shortly after the Comex open. The ‘rally’ in the US dollar that started at the same time as the precious

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Gold price action on Monday looked similar to Friday’s. The bottom for gold in the Far East came shortly after 3:00 p.m. in Hong Kong…rose until shortly after London opened, declined a couple of bucks…but once the London a.m. gold fix was in [10:30 a.m. in London...5:30 a.m. in New York], gold rose to its high of the day shortly after 11:00 a.m. This high [once again over $940] lasted until 9:00 a.m. in New York, shortly after the Comex opened…then it got taken down eight bucks to its low of the day at 10:00 a.m. in New York…which just happens to be the London p.m. fix…3:00 p.m. over there.

From that point it rose right into the Comex close…and was taken down and closed below $940 once again in the electronic market.

Silver’s chart pattern was virtually identical to gold’s.

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Commodity prices and world stocks rose while the U.S. dollar and government bond prices slipped on Friday when investors cautiously put money back into riskier assets.

U.S. crude pricesraced above $71 a barrel, extending a 2 percent gain the day before, after rebel attacks on Nigerian oil facilities disrupted supply. Firmer oil prices supported metal prices, with gold edging above $940 to a one-week high.

Global equities were also in demand, with the MSCI world equity index advancing 0.9 percent and the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 up 0.2 percent.

The MSCI world equity index is up more than 21 percent this quarter, on track for the biggest quarterly gain in its 20-year history.

“It is clear that the rebound in global equity markets has lost some steam,” Barclays Wealth said in a note.

“It appears to us that stocks are now broadly fairly valued, having erased their previous undervaluation faster than expected. Further share price gains may

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Source: David and Eric Coffin, Hard Rock Advisory Journal  05/29/2009
The greatest economic realignment since Genghis Kahn took over Eurasia’s trade routes is continuing apace. The west remains mired in an assets contraction of its own making, and the east is refocused on channeling its growth engines into domestic consumption. The resource sector, which is our focus and which has been governed by those growth engines for a decade and half, is indicating at least the expectation of continuing gains in the east. That does not mean we ignore what is going on the developed west, plus Japan.

Most of the planned bad news on the US banking system is now on the table or at least anticipated, in some form. The stress test requirements for US banks at $75 billion of new capital required are workable, though heavily dilutive. There are legitimate doubts that this will actually be sufficient given …

From the Globex open in New York on Wednesday night…and until 3:00 a.m. New York time [4 p.m. Thursday afternoon in Hong Kong trading], gold added about five dollars or so to its price. As I’ve mentioned many times in the past, this is often a time when there are changes in market direction. Thursday was no exception. From there, gold sold off quietly until about 10:40 a.m. in New York. This selling effect was especially pronounced in silver, where it sold off about 32 cents over the same period of time.

Then from 10:40 a.m. New York time, until shortly after 2:00 p.m…both gold and silver put on quite a show to the upside. From their lows, gold tacked on a little over $18…and silver around 43 cents. Then, from about 2:15 p.m., both metals flat-lined and have done virtually nothing since. Gold volume yesterday was estimated to have been

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Cyprus, one of Russia's biggest trading partners, will be removed from the Russian tax 'blacklist', eliminating double taxation on assets.  For the second week running Russia's international reserves have fallen by $1.1 billion over the week.  Rusal claims it remains 'profitable' despite falling metal prices.  The company will reduce output at its current plants to facilitate the construction of two Siberian smelters.  Alfa Bank says the 'most conservative scenario is a zero net profit for this year', expecting bad loans to consume all of its gains.  Rusnano and the State Statistics Service are planning to create a system to track all developments in Russian nanotechnology, with the aim of winning 3% of the global market by 2015.  Ursa Bank is to buy back as much as $132 million worth of euro bonds.  Alexander Lebedev's Blue ...