The post below is a guest contribution by Comstock Partners, the highly regarded investment manager run by Charles Minter, arguing that government debt could double while private debt could be cut in half.

We believe that U.S. government and private debt levels will diverge over the next four or five years as the authorities attempt to use government debt to replace the private debt that is almost certain to decline substantially.  U.S. total debt is presently just under $55 trillion, comprised of public (government) debt of about $15 trillion and private debt (U.S. corporations and individuals) of about $40 trillion.  The similarities to Japan at its 1989 economic and market peak leads us to believe that we are close to the same road map that Japan was on starting at that time and continuing until today.  With that said,

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Healthspring, Inc. (HS) has surprised on estimates 3 out of the last 4 quarters by an average of 6.45%. The stock is cheap. It trades at just 6.7x forward earnings and has a PEG ratio of 0.67.

Company Description

Healthspring coordinates care plans through the Medicare Advantage market in Alabama, Florida, Illinois, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas. The company also provides a national stand-alone Medicare prescription drug plan.

Healthspring Surprised by 22.22% in the Third Quarter

On Oct 29, Healthspring reported its third quarter results and easily beat the Zacks Consensus by 14 cents per share. Earnings per share were 77 cents compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 63 cents. The company reported 53 cents in the year ago period.

Premium revenue rose 26% to $649.8 million compared to the year ago period. Membership in the Medicare Advantage jumped 19.4% compared to the year ago period and was up

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Health Net’s (HNT) third-quarter earnings per share came in at 67 cents, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 61 cents and the year-ago earnings of 35 cents. The company reported revenues of $4 billion, an increase of 3.9% compared to the corresponding quarter of last year. The company receives revenues in the form of health plan service premiums, government contracts, net investment income and administrative services, fees and other income.

Health plan services premium, accounting for approximately 80% of total revenues during the quarter increased 3% year over year to $3.17 million. While revenues from government contracts increased 4.7% to $758 million, sequentially, it came down by 8.8%. We believe revenues from government contracts will decline further with the loss of contract in July with the Department of Defense awarding Aetna (AET) the $2.8 billion managed care contract to provide services for the northern region of the department's

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For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – November 4, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Stanley Works (SWK), Black & Decker Corporation (BDK), Joy Global (JOYG), Paccar (PCAR) and Illinois Tool Works (ITW).

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5513

Here are highlights from Tuesday’s AnalystBlog:

Stanley Works Acquires B&D

Stanley Works (SWK) and Black & Decker Corporation (BDK) have entered into a definitive merger agreement to create Stanley Black & Decker, an $8.4 billion global tool maker. The Board of Directors of both companies approved an all-stock transaction valued

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While last week GDP growth came in better than expected at 3.5%, which was a very welcome development, there was very little change in the coverall shape of GDP. This is a troubling development for the long term. GDP is the sum of spending by the Consumer, Private Investment, Government Spending and Net Exports. The Graph below shows the percentage each of them has contributed to overall GDP since 1947. The Consumer is still by far the dominate force in the economy, and it is becoming more so. In the 3Q, PCE, meaning the consumer, rose to 70.98% of GDP, up from 70.66% in the second quarter. That is an all-time record high. At the same time, private investment was virtually unchanged near an all-time low as a share of GDP at 11.04%, up from 11.03% in the 2Q. Government spending as a share of GDP ...

Magellan Health Services Inc. (MGLN) reported third quarter results last Friday. The company posted a 31.9% growth in net income to $31.0 million or 88 cents per share, compared to $23.5 million or 58 cents per share in the year-ago period, and easily surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 21 cents. The strong result was primarily driven by the acquisition of First Health coupled with the solid performance of the Specialty Pharmacy segment. Magellan Health offers managed behavioral healthcare, radiology benefits management and pharmaceutical management services to health plans, insurance companies, corporations, labor unions and various governmental agencies in the U.S. During July this year, the company completed the acquisition of First Health Services Corp., a subsidiary of Coventry Health Care Inc. (CVH). First Health provides pharmacy benefits administration, health care management and IT services to state Medicaid programs. The company said net revenues recorded ...

BioScrip, Inc. (BIOS) reported third-quarter earnings of 14 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 10 cents. The company reported earnings of 6 cents in the year-ago period. Although earnings were better than expected, revenues declined 7.2% to $333.5 million. While the specialty business contributed $279 million to revenues, the pharmacy benefit management (PBM) business posted revenues of $54.5 million.   The decline in revenues was mainly due to the elimination of the Medicare Competitive Acquisition Program and the termination of the United Health Group organ transplant and HIV/AIDS contracts. This was partially offset by increased sales of higher margin infusion therapies and other specialty sales.   The company reported a sequential growth of 3% in specialty sales with several therapeutic areas like iron overload, multiple sclerosis (MS), oncology and infusion therapies recording double digit growth from the year-ago period. The oral oncology business should continue ...

Coventry Health Care, Inc. (CVH) reported third quarter earnings of 66 cents per share, which was above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 54 cents. The company earned 73 cents in the year-ago quarter. Total operating revenues for the reported quarter increased 17.8% to $3.44 billion from the previous year's $2.92 billion.  Revenues from managed care premiums rose 20% to $3.15 billion, while revenues from management services decreased to $290.9 million from $298.4 million a year earlier. Due to reduced commercial risk and commercial management membership, total enrollment in Coventry plans increased 0.55% to 5.24 million members, mainly on gains in the Medicare D prescription drug program. The membership in that program increased 81,000 from the prior quarter. Total operating expenses for the quarter came in at $3.29 billion, up 18.6% from the year ago quarter. Medical costs, the major operating expense component, rose to $2.66 ...

Torchmark(TMK) reported third quarter operating earnings of $1.48 per share compared to $1.51 per share in the year-ago quarter. Results were affected by lower underwriting as well as lower excess investment income. Life premium revenue was $414.4 million versus $406.1 million in the prior year period. This was due to strong L ife sales in the quarter, primarily driven by the growth in its distribution channels: American Income Agency and Direct Response. Net sales of life insurance increased 9% year-over-year. Life insurance accounted for 72% of the company's insurance underwriting margin for the quarter and 62% of total premium revenue. Health premium revenue was $247.8 million versus $272.4 million in the prior year quarter, led by a decline in health sales. The company has experienced a drop in its LNL Agency. Health sales, excluding Medicare Part D, fell 39% year-over-year. Excess investment income − a ...

Senior strategist Dirk van Dijk, CFA has issued notes on this morning's GDP numbers. These notes will be published in two separate blogs -- Growth Rates and Contributions to Growth. The recession is over! In the third quarter, GDP grew by 3.5%, comfortably ahead of expectations for 3.0% growth. This is a huge improvement over the 0.7% decline in the second quarter and the 6.4% plunge in the first quarter. The internals of the report were strong as well, although it appears that much of the growth came from things like the "Cash for Clunkers" (C4C) program and the extraordinary levels of support that are currently being given to the housing sector. I will first go over the percentage growth rates for the main components of GDP, and then how much each part contributed (or subtracted from the 3.5% growth rate). This is probably the ...