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		<title>Today in Russian Business &#8211; May 12, 2009</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/today-in-russian-business-may-12-2009/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 12 May 2009 08:14:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amur Shipbuilding Plant;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Diamond producer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fleming Family;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MDM Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oleg Deripaska's Transstroi;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[St. Petersburg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the New York Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ursa Bank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.18663</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The near-bankrupt Amur Shipbuilding Plant, employer to 15,000 people, has been 'renationalized for a symbolic sum' and will be heavily subsidized by the state.&#160; Talk of a revival in the Moscow property market has been supported by recent statistics which...]]></description>
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		<title>Russia Heading Towards The Abyss?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-europe/russia-heading-towards-the-abyss/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-europe/russia-heading-towards-the-abyss/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Feb 2009 13:07:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Manuel Alvarez-Rivera</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[//blockquotep/pblockquoteDanske Bank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[a lot of concern]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alexei Kudrin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alfa;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[aluminium group;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bank bail-outs;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bank loans]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[big state-controlled banks;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blockquoteBank;]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Dmitry Medvedev]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[eastern europe economy watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[electricity groups;]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Evgeny Gavrilenkov;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Security Service]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foreign banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gas Monopoly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gazprom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gbp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[huge savings bank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Igor Shuvalov]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Investment Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lars Christensen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MDM Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[metal combine;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Natalia Orlova;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[non-government bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Norilsk Nickel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oleg Deripaska]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oleg Vyugin;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oligarch-led groups;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Policy makers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Private Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reserve Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Retail Sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RUB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rusal;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sampo Bank Plc;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sberbank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stanislav Ponomarenko;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Svetlana Aslanova;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troika Dialog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unicredit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Urals]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Vladimir Osakovsky]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[vladimir putin]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1443720106009957151.post-1690349098087008883</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[blockquote“A significant amount, if not all, of the speculative attacks on the ruble are funded by the central bank itself,” said Vladimir Osakovsky, Moscow-based economist for UniCredit/blockquotepThe underlying dynamics of the current ruble devaluation are provoking more than a little consternation in Russia at the moment. In the forefront of the debate are data from Bank Rossii (the central bank)  which show they lent 7.7 trillion rubles ($214 billion) in overnight and seven-day loans (secured with bonds or other collateral) in just 16 trading days last month - this was about double the 4.8 trillion rubles provided via so-called repurchase auctions in December. Over the same period the ruble lost 18 percent against the dollar. The question is, is there a connection here?/ppRussia's banking authorities now certainly seem to think there is and Kommersant reported (Friday) that policy makers planned to reduce bank loans in an attempt to limit bets on the ongoing ruble devaluation. As a result the ruble remained safely within the target band all day Friday, and there was no need for any kind of intervention./pp/ppThe decision follows several days of severe criticism over the way in which Russian banks appeared to be using the loans being made available to them. Oleg Vyugin, former deputy central banker and currently chairman of MDM Bank has suggested that Russia's banks have now accumulated about $40bn in hard currency deposited for their clients on accounts with the central bank and another $40bn on accounts held with foreign banks. /pblockquotePolicy makers lifted the rate on overnight and seven-day loans obtained through the auctions by 1 percentage point to 11 percent this week, the highest since at least November 2007. Banks used “almost all” the money from loan auctions to bet against the ruble, Natalia Orlova chief economist at Alfa, Russia’s largest non-government bank, said. Policy makers “have basically fueled the speculation on the ruble themselves.....The market is intent on testing the central bank’s ability to spend reserves and they’re going to really have to tighten liquidity, or something, if they want to have a hope against that.” /blockquote!--more--br /br /blockquote“If they really wanted to stop speculation, they have to raise the rates significantly, say to 20 or 30 percent, for a short period of time,” said Evgeny Gavrilenkov, chief economist at Moscow-based brokerage Troika Dialog. “One day they have to say: Give me my money back, no more repo is available.” “They have to raise interest rates if they want to stop speculation.....But there is still a lot of concern among the authorities that the banking sector might collapse.”/blockquotebr /br /According a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095amp;sid=aqpJfhFF6fZ0amp;refer=east_europe"to Bloomberg/a, Russia's banks bid for 505 billion rubles in repo auctions on Thursday, more than the 402 billion rubles actually lent. Banks also requested 139 billion rubles in an auction of unsecured loans on 3 February, about six times the 23.5 billion rubles provided. The possibility of obtaining such loans was opened up to over 100 Russian banks in November as part of a plan to boost liquidity amid the seizure in global credit markets. The extra funding has helped lower the average interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans, known as the MosPrime rate, to 10.83 percent on Wednesday from a record 25.17 percent on Jan. 27.br /blockquoteBank Rossii may send representatives to individual banks to check on their foreign-currency holdings, said Stanislav Ponomarenko, chief economist in Moscow at ING Groep NV. President Dmitry Medvedev told the Federal Security Service, Russia’s spy agency, to monitor the allocation of state funds on Jan. 29, saying it is “doubly criminal” for investors to get rich off the crisis./blockquotepbr /strongVTB GDP Indicator Shows Severe Contraction/strongbr //ppIn any event, while a lot of people in the Russian establishment seem busy trying to decide which side they are batting for in all this, a Russian economy which is basically being starved of liquidity is now spirally downwards and downwards. The most recent piece of evidence for this comes from the latest reading on VTB’s Russian GDP Indicator which showed that economic output contracted at a year on year rate of 4 percent in January, down from December’s 1.1 percent decline, and November's 2.1 percent expansion.br /br //ppa href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYrQqqST3oI/AAAAAAAAMko/mdVbzUd4Lmo/s1600-h/russia+gdp2.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5299277342878981762" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 244px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYrQqqST3oI/AAAAAAAAMko/mdVbzUd4Lmo/s400/russia+gdp2.png" border="0" //abr /br /According to Russian economy Ministry estimates the economy will contract by only 0.2 percent this year after expanding 5.6 percent in 2008, so this estimate now seems hopelessly out of date. If we look at the monthly contraction rate as a reflection of the current quarter on quarter contraction, we find a rate of minus 1.6%, which means that the present rate is something like a 6.5% annualised shrinkage rate. At present this is stationary and not accelerating, but it is quite strong, especially for an economy which only six months ago was expanding at a 6.5% annualised rate.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYrQX0URIrI/AAAAAAAAMkg/pPq0d0ZpbNY/s1600-h/russia+GDP.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5299277019154031282" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 245px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYrQX0URIrI/AAAAAAAAMkg/pPq0d0ZpbNY/s400/russia+GDP.png" border="0" //a /pbr /br /pstrongServices Contract But Less Strongly Than Manufacturingbr //strongbr /Russia's services industries are still not contracting as fast as the manufacturing sector (34.4), but with the Russian economy shedding 800,000 jobs in December the outlook for improvement is not exactly bright. The PMI reading was little changed - and close to December's all-time low rising to 36.8 in January from 36.4 the previous month. Since a reading over 50 indicates expansion, and below 50 a contraction, this is still a pretty hefty rate of shrinkage. /pa href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYrQ5M1tiwI/AAAAAAAAMkw/OVzMDbtLzZg/s1600-h/russia+services+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5299277592672439042" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 243px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYrQ5M1tiwI/AAAAAAAAMkw/OVzMDbtLzZg/s400/russia+services+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /br /Meantime retail sales grew at the slowest annual pace in nine years in December while disposable incomes fell 11.6 percent.br /br /br /blockquote“Business activity and incoming new business contracted further to record lows due to still weak demand,” said Svetlana Aslanova, senior corporate analyst at VTB Capital, in the report. “Low levels of workloads have forced companies to cut costs” resulting in jobs cuts, she added.br //blockquotebr /pbr /strongNew Policies From The Administration?/strong/ppWith declining reserves in the background, and oil prices which may well not rebound very much this year to concentrate their minds, the Russia adminstration indicated on Wednesday that it was about to make a significant change in the policies it is deploying to fight the financial crisis. The move basically involves  switching from bailing out individual companies to attempting to directly support the economy through the banking sector. At the same time Moscow is planning large budget cuts in an attempt to limit the fiscal deficit since letting it run too high threatens to eat up Reserve Fund resources far too quickly if oil prices remain low for any length of time. The general impression is that the administration has now lost hope it can avoid the crisis simply by increasing public spending and is instead digging in deep in an attempt to endure what might turn out to be a rather prolonged recession.br /br /The policy change was announced by Igor Shuvalov, Russia's first deputy prime minister, who stressed the government was deliberately choosing to allow gross domestic product growth to fall to zero or below in 2009 to stabilise the economy and maintain foreign exchange reserves. He was thus explicitly rejecting the advice of those economists who had suggested using the reserves to finance a budget deficit of 10 per cent of GDP to promote growth. Of course the risk here is that this will produce a much stronger GDP contraction with unknown social consequences./ppShuvalov also indicated the government would invest “several percentage points of GDP” in strengthening the banking sector, covering “possible future losses” and supervising a consolidation plan that would see the number of banks cut from 1,100 to 500. Alexei Kudrin, the finance minister, confirmed during a visit to London that the state was preparing to inject $40bn (€31bn, £28bn) capital into banks provided that the money was channelled into the real economy. This would follow last year’s Rbs960bn package of subordinated loans.br /br /Shuvalov indicated some key industrial companies would continue to get priority, headed by military enterprises, Gazprom, the gas monopoly, electricity groups and the state railways. This is a far more tightly focused target than the previously announced list of 295 industrial companies deemed worthy of financial support that included oligarch-led groups such as Rusal, the aluminium company, and Norilsk Nickel, the metal combine. Shuvalov suggested that the state should not have lent $4.5bn to Rusal, Oleg Deripaska’s aluminium group, on the security of its 25 per cent stake in Norilsk Nickel, the metals company, when it was clear these shares were worth only $1.5bn. /ppIn line with the change in policy Vladimir Putin gave the go ahead on Thursday for a second wave of bank bail-outs to extend up to Rbs1,000bn ($28b) in order to refinance the banking sector with new capital and subordinated debt in an effort to transfer the burden for bailing out companies on to commercial banks. Of the three big state-controlled banks, VTB is to receive Rbs200bn in new capital, state-owned VEB is to receive Rbs100bn in capital and Rbs100bn in subordinated debt, and Sberbank, the huge savings bank, may receive funding in the region of Rbs500bn./ppThe moves will increase the state’s stakes in these three banks, boosting its role in the Russian economy. The state’s stake in the three banks are Sberbank 61 per cent, VTB 77.5 per cent and 100 per cent VEB. Vladimir Putin said Moscow could also inject up to 100bn roubles in subordinated loans – Tier 2 capital under international banking rules – into private banks but said the government would not seek stakes in return.br //pblockquoteAndrei Sharonov, a former deputy economy minister, who now works asbr /managing director of Troika Dialog, the Moscow investment bank, said the secondbr /bail-out of the banking system was part of an effort to switch the governmentbr /anti-crisis programme to the banking system instead of bailing out individualbr /companies, which must repay some $140bn in foreign debts this year.br //blockquotep/pblockquoteDanske Bank A/S, which ranks itself among the five biggest traders of the rublebr /through Finnish subsidiary Sampo Bank Plc, said yesterday the ruble will bebr /allowed to trade freely “within weeks,” because pressure on the currency won’tbr /abate after the decline in oil prices, according to Lars Christensen, Danske’sbr /head of emerging -markets strategy. Urals crude, Russia’s chief export blend,br /has fallen 70 percent to $43.01 a barrel since reaching a record in July, belowbr /the $70 average required to balance the government’s 2009 budget. Energybr /accounts for more than 70 percent of Russia’s exports./blockquote]]></description>
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		<title>The Ruble Fall Continues As Unemployment Soars</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/the-ruble-fall-continues-as-unemployment-soars/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/the-ruble-fall-continues-as-unemployment-soars/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 01 Feb 2009 07:32:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[/blockquotepCurrent government;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[/blockquotepRussia's Reserve Fund;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[/blockquoteThe Central Bank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alexei Kudrin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[average oil price;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bank data;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bnp Paribas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[by-product]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[citgroup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citibank Russia;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citigroup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danske Bank A/S]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Davos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy Ministry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elina Ribakova]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[finance ministry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gaelle Blanchard;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gdp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Igor Shuvalov]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ING Groep NV]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intelligence Unit;]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Lars Rassmussen;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Nikolai Kashcheev;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nizhny Novgorod;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[OAO GAZ;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[OAO Norilsk Nickel;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[ruble oil-fund;]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Russian Federal State Statistics Service;]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Sergei Ignatyev;]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7303901362201842397.post-6605010995265322812</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Russia's current woes can be readily summed up in just one single variable - the value of the ruble - and this value, as we all know, is falling. Almost uncontrollably so.br /br /blockquoteThe bank’s target will be “very quickly” breached without more intervention, said Gaelle Blanchard of Societe Generale SA in London. “Right now the market is convinced it wants to see the ruble lower,” Blanchard said. “As long as the central bank gives these targets, then speculators are going to have something to aim for.”br /br //blockquoteblockquote“The market is testing whether the authorities see this band as something permanent or something that will move,” said Lars Rassmussen, an emerging markets analyst at Danske Bank A/S. “Our view is that they’ll move it because it’s not worth wasting the reserves for a band that is obviously not wide enough.”/blockquoteblockquoteFirst Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov expressed regret that the general population failed to fully understand the Central Bank’s policy on the ruble’s exchange rate against the dollar/euro basket. The government did let the ruble depreciate, but it did so gradually, providing plenty of time for people to decide which currency to keep their savings in. /blockquote br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYW5pJ24U5I/AAAAAAAAMe8/T2w5hE6yTnY/s1600-h/ruble.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 236px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYW5pJ24U5I/AAAAAAAAMe8/T2w5hE6yTnY/s400/ruble.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5297844653343134610" //abr /br /br /In fact the ruble fell sharply again last Friday, and was on the brink of breaching the target trading band, yet one more time, following its biggest monthly depreciation in more than a decade. The ruble was down at one point by as much as 1.4 percent on the day (to 35.59 per dollar), 1.1 percent away from breaking the 36 per dollar limit. The Russian central bank has now expanded its trading range 20 times since mid-November in a series of attempts to defend the currency. These continuing attempts to hold a line have lead the central bank to use up more than a third of its foreign-currency reserves since last August, a period in which the ruble has fallen some 34 percent slide against the dollar.br /br /The ruble has now depreciated by 20 percent since the start of the year - making January already the worst month for the currency since 1998. And there is obviously more to come, with the government now expecting a decline to 36 per dollar following the latest widening in the trading band, according to First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov speaking in the State Duma last week. This "managed devaluation" is seen as an attempt to avoid a reapeat of what happened back in 1998, when the ruble fell by as much as 29 percent in a single day. Yet the currency has now lost over 30% against the dollar (and weakened substantially against the euro) since last summer and all this spells disaster for domestic banks and industrial companies, whose debt is denominated in dollars and euros but who depended on rouble-denominated revenues.br /br /One of the principal problems facing those banks and companies who have this mismatch if that they have insufficient foreign exchange liquidity, while other parts of the banking and corporate sector are better positioned. That is the aggregate external position understates the extent of the problem, since the lack of internal confidence makes it hard for those who are under severe stress to find the appropriate lenders. In part as a an attempt at a solution to this problem state owned investment bank Vnesheconombank (VEB) is preparing to issue foreign-currency bonds to be placed among Russian banks with excess of foreign currency and then redistribute the currency raised to those in need of foreign currency liquidity. During the last quarter of 2008 the net increase in foreign currency assets in the corporate sector was over $100 bln. According to the central bank external corporate debt redemptions totaling $120 bln are anticpated during 2009, which indicates a shortfall of only $20 billion, yet according to Interfax the total volume of applications for fx support to VEB from Russian companies is $80 bln. Which suggests that a sizeable chunk of the $100 bln accumulated by Russian corporates at the end of last year was not intended for foreign-currency debt redemptions but was instead a means a protecting free liquidity from falling in value. That is they converted their liquidity into USD and Euro to avoid losses (or make gains) from the devaluation.br /br /br /strongInflation Always Carries A Price/strongbr /br /The root of Russia's most recent problems is very evidently all that excess inflation which Russia has seen over the last 18 months (if it hadn't been for the inflation there would have been no devaluation, and hence no issue with forex loans), inflation which has taken badly needed competitiveness from Russia's manufacturing industry at a time when the oil and commodity sectors are in the grips of a severe price slump (which means their contribution to the economy is greatly reduced).br /br /Obviously Russia's situation doesn't make for any easy answers, and even devaluation brings with it the problem of the attendant inflationary uptick from imported goods. Russia's month on month inflation is expected to reach 2.4 percent in January 2009, according to the latest estimates from the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), and the Economy Ministry currently estimates Russia's whole year inflation could be as high as 13 percent in 2009. In fact the annual rate for last December was 13.3% (see chart below), so they seem to anticipate very little change in the situation. In fact they may be unduly pessimistic here, since they are almost certainly underestimating the force of Russia's current economic contraction, and the collapse in internal demand may well bring Russia's inflation down more rapidly than they are expecting.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYVcvy7mmtI/AAAAAAAAMeU/sgjSJ5NCwdc/s1600-h/russia+CPI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5297742512866630354" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 237px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYVcvy7mmtI/AAAAAAAAMeU/sgjSJ5NCwdc/s400/russia+CPI.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /strongMonetary Tightening In The Face Of An Economic Slump/strongbr /br /Basically the Russian economy is currently suffering the effects of a long term policy of trying to control the currency value at the same time as being "soft" on inflation. This approach evidently hasn't worked out, and it is to be hoped that some lessons for the future may have been learned, but the sorry reality is that those currently responsible for managing Russia's economy are left with only hard policy options at this point, if they wish to avoid another default. Basically, and on top of all the rest, the economy has two added problems (apart, that is, from the drop in oil prices, the internal credit crunch and the slump in domestic demand): the high inflation, and the capital exit.br /br /br /Russia's reserves are disappearing for a whole variety of reasons at this point. First there are foreign investors who are simply pulling out - investors have removed about $290 billion from Russia sincethe start of August, according to the latest estimates from BNP Paribas. Secondly the Russia central bank has been using reserves to defend the currency. According to the Central Bank last week, Russia's foreign exchange and gold reserves dropped by nearly $10 billion from $396.2bn to $386.5bn in the week to 23 January.Citigroup calculate that the bulk of that fall was the by-product of a strong negative revaluation effect - which may have exceeded $8 billion - and the strengthening of USD vs EUR and GBP probably subtracted $5.5bn and $3.7bn, respectively, from the total in USD. Nonetheless Russia has spent very large quantities of foreign exchange on supporting the ruble since August . According to Kommerant reports Bank Rossii told Russian bankers in a meeting in the middle of the month that their “managed devaluation” of the ruble was over, but as we can see, this is far from being the case. Nikolai Kashcheev, head of economic research at Moscow-based MDM bank, Russia may abandon the ruble's dollar-euro trading band completely and allow the currency to trade freely, with the central bank only intervening to avert serious economic shocks using a so-called “dirty float” mechanism.br /blockquote“A dirty float would look like it was a free market but the central bank would still have a measure of control,” said Kashcheev, who forecast the ruble may fall 5.9 percent against the dollar if the central bank made the switch this week. “It would be a preferable outcome to the devaluation because what they’re doing at the moment is costing too much in reserves.” /blockquotebr /br /The central bank sold $3.2 billion last Friday alone, and $800 million Thursday, according to MDM Bank estimates. The bank appears to have stayed out of the market between January 23 and 27, the first three days after widening its exchange-rate band.br /br /Other demands on foreign exchange comes from Russian corporates who need to pay off foreign exchange debt, or simply protect their ruble liquidity from the devaluation fall, and from individuals and households who wish to do the same.br /br /As a result of the reserve and inflation pressures Russia’s central bank has little alternative but to maintain a relatively tight monetary stance, and indeed the bank raised two key interest rates for the third time since the start of November last week, with the repo rate for one-day and seven-day loans being raised to 11 from 10 percent. Now I say "relatively tight", since obviously with CPI inflation currently running at over 13%, even 11% interest rates are negative in Russia (by around 2%), and thus Russian policy rates could be considered somewhat accommodative (though not as accommodative as would be desireable given the strength of the hit the economy just took). At the end of the day terms like "tight" and "accomodative" are relative terms, and it all depends what you are dealing with.br /blockquoteThe Central Bank does not rule out the possibility of a new wave of the crisis erupting in the banking sector, the bank's Chairman Sergei Ignatyev told the Russian State Duma on Friday. He noted that although such a risk was unlikely in the near term, it was still fairly possible in the foreseeable future. The new wave of crisis may be brought about by a rise in loan defaults, Ignatyev explained. The Central Bank is holding meetings with bankers and keeping a watchful eye on  the situation, the official said, adding that the bank was ready for any new developments. He also noted that an increase in certain banks' capitalization might prove necessary./blockquotepRussian media are also reporting that the government anti-crisis committee (which is headed by Deputy Prime Minister Shuvalov) is putting together a rescue plan for carmaker OAO GAZ. If confirmed the move that would mark the first custom built financial rescue of an individual company by the government during the current economic crisis. OAO GAZ, which is based in Nizhny Novgorod, may need $1.6 billion in state funds to continue operating. Shuvalov has confirmed that the government plans to offer substantial support to Russian companies. “The list of such companies will be expanded to 2,000,” he said, noting that it would include both companies involved in the technical modernization of the national economy and those in a difficult financial situation. “To save all companies is impossible and unnecessary"./ppAnother company in difficulties is United Co. Rusal, who are set to sell shares in a private placement as they seek to refinance about $16.3 billion of debt, according to billionaire shareholder and company Chairman Viktor Vekselberg speaking in Davos. The Russian company owes $7 billion to foreign banks, about $6.5 billion to domestic lenders and about $2.8 billion to Mikhail Prokhorov’s Onexim Group. Rusal is in “active” talks with creditors. Rusal, which is Russia’s largest aluminum company, will cut output by as much as 10 percent and freeze investment for about three years. Aluminium fell to a five- year low this month, and profit is projected to slump 88 percent to $476 million this year, according to an estimate by ING Groep NV. Aluminum needs to trade at $1,700 a metric ton for Rusal to be able to service its debt and pursue new projects, according to Vekselberg - aluminum for delivery three months forward was 1.2 percent lower at $1,350 a ton as of 12:18 p.m. on Friday on the London Metal Exchange. Rusal was forced to seek a $4.5 billion bailout from state-owned Vnesheconombank in October to refinance loans used to buy 25 percent of OAO Norilsk Nickel, Russia’s biggest metals and mining company.br /br /So far Russia’s indebted companies have been bailed out by the government, but this year they are due to repay an additional US$117bn to foreign creditors. With opportunities to roll over existing debt limited, and the government’s reserves down by US$200bn since August, the chances of continuing rescues by the federal authorities appear greatly reduced. According to the latest central bank data, some US$117bn of debt needs to be repaid this year, with US$52bn owed by banks and US$62bn by corporations. Debt restructuring looms on the horizon.br /br /strongUnemployment Surges/strong/ppEvidently the crunch in the financial economy - Russia's base money shrank dramatically (from 4283 bln rub to 3896 bln rub, that's not far short of 10% in a month) between 29 December and 26 January - is having a serious impact on the real economy, and nowhere is that clearer than in the unemployment numbers. As could have been expected Russia’s unemployment rate rose sharply in December (up to 7.7 percent from 6.6 percent in November), its highest level since November 2005, as industrial production shrank the most in ten years. The total number of unemployed reached 5.8 million people, as compared with 5 million in November.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYWHO7nZpbI/AAAAAAAAMec/Md0sL4-79w0/s1600-h/russia+unemploy.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5297789227262125490" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 202px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYWHO7nZpbI/AAAAAAAAMec/Md0sL4-79w0/s400/russia+unemploy.png" border="0" //abr /br /What is most notable is the sharpness of this rise. Alongside the rise in umployment wages have started to fall, and the average monthly wage fell an annual 4.6 percent in December to 17,112 rubles ($517.85), the first contraction since October 1999 when they fell 2.2 percent. Real disposable income fell 11.6 percent, the biggest contraction since August 1999, according to Rostat. So this is how one part of the mechanism works basically. The oil price drops, the ruble devalues, fx loans become unsustainable, new funding dries up, and then the real economy sinks like a stone, and as the unemployment goes up, household and investment demand go down, and economic activity heads on a downward spiral.br /br /strongGDP Growth Outlook/strong/pblockquotebr /br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYWNXTAYrzI/AAAAAAAAMek/OiyxOS_E97w/s1600-h/russia+GDP.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5297795968049655602" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 206px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYWNXTAYrzI/AAAAAAAAMek/OiyxOS_E97w/s400/russia+GDP.png" border="0" //abr /br /First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov told the State Duma today. “The crisis will continue for three years, of which 2009 will be the most difficult,” /blockquotepIf we now turn to economic forecasts for 2009, Economy Minister Alexei Kudrin said last week that Russia's 2009 GDP growth would be close to zero - a figure which was revised down from the Economy Ministry's earlier 2 percent estimate. blockquote“We must be prepared for further economic decline and a conservative tax and budget policy. Yet we will implement our main programs involving the social protection of the population. The reserves we have built up allow us to be up to that task,” Kudrin stressed. /blockquotepCurrent government estimates also project capital flight to be between $100 billion and $110 billion in 2009, while budget revenue will be far below the planned RUB 10.9 billion (approx. $307.9bn). Kudrin's present estimate is RUB 6.5 trillion (approx. $183.6bn), with oil exports expected to generate the bulk of the revenue. He says the federal budget is expected to decline by 40 percent, from a projected $300 billion [10.9 trillion rubles] to about $185 billion [6.5 billion rubles]. Russia’s current budget is based on an average oil price of $70 a barrel, even though Urals crude, the country’s chief export blend, has slumped 69 percent from a July record to $43.72 a barrel. As a result Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has told the Finance Ministry to recalculate the budget, with the Economy Ministry now forecasting oil to trade at an average $41/pblockquote.“These are the real challenges we face for our economy and the budget system,” Shuvalov said. “If we don’t change our budget targets, and simply replace this lost revenue with money from the reserve funds, the budget deficit will be 6.1 percent of GDP.”/blockquotepKudrin is suggesting that Russia will probably spend the bulk of its 7.317 trillion ruble oil-fund reserves to protect the budget, some, “but not all,”. The economic crisis is likely to “peak” this year, and tax revenue may slide by 1 trillion rubles, he added. But Elina Ribakova, Chief Economist at Citibank Russia takes a different view:/p blockquote“They're planning a large fiscal deficit. Kudrin was mentioning six per cent and our estimate is we could reach ten per cent of GDP, which is most of the reserve fund. So under that scenario yes, we could easily run out of money this year. But I hope that by prudent macroeconomic preemptive policies, we'll not allow that to happen.” /blockquotepRussia's Reserve Fund now stands at 4.7 trillion rubles ($142.5 billion) and the National Wealth Fund at 2.6 trillion rubles ($79 billion). On February 1 2008 the Finance Ministry divided the former Stabilization Fund into the Reserve Fund, which is intended to cushion the federal budget from a plunge in oil prices, and the National Wealth Fund, designed to help Russia carry out pension reforms. /pblockquoteFirst Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov stated that the global financial crisis is expected to last three years, He confirmed the appropriateness of the government’s reserve strategy, noting that the Finance Ministry was under pressure to start using the reserves several months ago. The crisis could be even more severe than was originally thought, he warned. “We are considering a scenario which is already tough enough, but it could get even tougher, with federal and regional budget revenues falling more sharply than we are estimating,” Shuvalov explained./blockquotepUnless the oil price recovers soon, Russia's current-account surplus will turn into deficit during 2009 (the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that it will equal 4% of GDP), meaning that the country would be forced to subsidise vital imports, including food, out of its already strained dollar holdings. Even if an outright default is likely to be avoided, some debt restructuring moves involving the bulk of Russian debt now seem more or less unavoidable. /ppa href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYWNeOkgP7I/AAAAAAAAMes/6dEXheI5m44/s1600-h/russia+CA+surplus.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5297796087118053298" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 203px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYWNeOkgP7I/AAAAAAAAMes/6dEXheI5m44/s400/russia+CA+surplus.png" border="0" //a As for the outlook for Russian GDP, Kudrin's forecast seems somewhat on the optimistic side, and it is interesting to note that Citgroup have now revised to a 3% contraction in 2009 followed by growth of 1.7% in 2010. They argue (and I agree) that the key change in 2009 GDP is likely to come on the domestic consumption side. Private consumption, which accounts for about 80% of total consumption, now looks set to contract significantly (Citigroup forecast 4.6%), even if the government keeps its originally planned level of current spending. /ppAt the same time investment will also contract (Citigroup suggest by 10%) owing to reduced access to credit and further possible cuts in government capital spending (which accounts for about 10% of total investment growth). The government capital injections (an additional US$40 billion, according to Finance Minister Kudrin, Bloomberg, 22 January) is more liekly to go towards covering bank non performing loan losses rather than supporting new credit. /ppEven more worryingly Citigroup forecast a 10% contraction in new credit. Furthermore, they argue that the government may well have to cut capital spending owing to the need to accommodate increases in social spending and support for the regional governments. As a result of falling income and investment spending imports will fall (perhaps by 20% in dollar terms), this will be positive for the current account deficit (and to some extent for GDP. A 3% CA defeicit thus seems reasonable assuming no rebound in oil prices./ppSo, not a rosy picture. Next stop some more real economy data next week, and the manufacturing and services PMIs./p]]></description>
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		<title>Russia&#8217;s Economic And Financial Meltdown Continues Apace</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/russias-economic-and-financial-meltdown-continues-apace-2/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Dec 2008 10:06:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[By Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Russia's foreign-exchange reserves have been now been declining very rapidly since mid August, and as the money goes so does the faith that the large stock of reserves the country built up during the boom times would be sufficient to see them through any downturn in energy prices. As the money leaves, so it seems does the decade of economic growth and stability which they symbolised. Indeed so rapid has been the decline that Russia's international reserves, which are the third-biggest after those of China and Japan, have now fallen $161 billion, or 27% percent, since 8 August last, and decreased by $17.9 billion to $437 billion in the week to 5 December. Investors have now pulled $211 billion out of the country since August, according to estimates by BNP Paribas.br /br /br /pa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SUbQptNe4tI/AAAAAAAALyE/K0xlBOy3AlA/s1600-h/russia+GDP.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5280137028067844818" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 162px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SUbQptNe4tI/AAAAAAAALyE/K0xlBOy3AlA/s320/russia+GDP.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /But just how difficult managing this process is proving to be was illustrated yet again this morning as Russia’s central bank found itself forced to accept a further devaluation in the ruble - for what is now the second time in a only a week - subsequent to which the ruble fell as much as 1.3 percent (to a four-year low of 37.5015 per euro) as Bank Rossii widened the trading band against the basket of dollars and euros used by the bank as the measure for attempting to manage the exchange rate.br /br /Russia has now used some 27 percent of its reserves in these attempts to stem what has now become a 16 percent decline in the ruble following a 69 percent drop in the price of oil and last weeks decision by credit ratings agency Standard amp; Poor’s to cut its Russian credit rating on for the first time in nine years.br /br /Thus over at Bank Rossii they have been having their work cut out "fexibilising" the trading band, and it this flexibilisation process that has now allowed the ruble to fall against its target exchange rate against a basket of currencies by 8.6 percent, down further from the 7.7 percent level facilitated last week and the 3.7 percent one of a month ago. Thus the currency has now fallen a net total of 5.9 percent against the basket in the series of six "adjustments" to the trading band implemented since 11 November. However this "slow and steady" approach to devaluation is creating uncertainty, as well as fomenting a loss of confidence with Russians withdrwaing a total of 6 percent from their ruble accounts in October alone, the fastest rate of withdrawal since Bank Rossii started collecting this data two years ago, while foreign currency deposits rose 11 percent. Thus instead of reinforcing confidence in the monetary regime, the slow, step-by-step adjustment of the nominal exchange rate may be perpetuating a steady stream of deposit withdrawals and dollar purchases, and some evidence for this can be found in November's 5.9 percent contraction in the money supply.br /br /Apart from the financial turmoil, Russia's economy is really reeling under the weight of the sharp drop in crude prices, and the price of Urals crude, Russia's main export blend, is currently trading at around $44.13 a barrel, down 69 percent from the July peak, and well below the $70 average required to balance the country's 2009 budget.br /br /strongGDP Growth Slowing Rapidlybr //strongbr /It is hard to get a fix at the present time on what Russia's growth rate will look like in 2009, and estimates vary widely. Deutsche Bank recently cut its Russian growth forecast to 1 percent for next year, down from an earlier 3.4 percent, while the World Bank last month forceast a slowdown to 3 percent from what has been an average expansion of 7 percent a year since 1999. At the bottom end of the forecast range we have Oleg Vyugin, chairman of MDM Bank and a former central banker, who suggests the economy may contract by as much as 4% if the prices of raw materials exports do not recover. My own feeling is that the final figure may well be much nearer to Vyugin's estimate than to the World Bank one, especially if we don't get a strong rebound in commodity prices and given the sharp contraction in non-energy industrial output.br /br /Analysts an OAO Sperbank have gone one step further and come up with two possible scenarios for possible impacts of the economic slump on property prices. For the first (or mild case) scenario they postulate a 2.5-3.5% growth in GDP, 11% inflation and a 30 ruble per dollar exchange rate in 2009. In this case, the bank anticipates a drop in Moscow real estate prices of 34.4% in ruble terms and 46.6% in dollars. On the second scenario GDP stagnates (or even contracts by up to 2.5%), there is higher inflation and an even larger devaluation of the ruble against the dollar. On this (worst) case scenario the Bank suggests that Moscow property prices would plummet by 38.1% in rubles and 59.6% in US dollars. You have been warned!br /br /br /strongThe Inflation Worm Is At The Heart Of The Problembr //strongbr /br /The real difficulty facing Russia's macroeconomic managers is that after two years of shocking inflation domestic industry is in no position to compete with its overseas competitors while the ruble remains at its present rate, while any sharp devaluation will have a serious impact on the balance sheets of those who took advantage of cheaper interest rates available abroad to do their borrowing using forex loans. This situation is not that different from that which is to be found in many other economies across the region, in Latvia, Hungary, Ukraine and Romania (for example), with the added rider that the IMF representatives who are in dialogue with policy makers in these very fragile economies would do well to bear in mind the potential knock-on effect of any coming downward adjustment in the ruble./ppIn annual terms inflation is now slowing, and was down to 13.8% in November, from 14.2% in October. Still, these are very - unacceptably - high numbers, and those who so willingly acquiesced in them earlier will now feel the downside of their negligence, although unfortunately it is - as ever - the poor old Russian in the street who will really pick up the bill.br /br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SUZ6N5DK8cI/AAAAAAAALx8/T4TcZGW4WfE/s1600-h/russia+cpi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5280041992209494466" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 194px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SUZ6N5DK8cI/AAAAAAAALx8/T4TcZGW4WfE/s320/russia+cpi.png" border="0" //abr /Basically, the credit driven consumer boom which accompanied the commodities one severely distorted the always delicate balance between Russia's commodities and manufacturing sectors, leaving the manufacturing sector strongly uncompetitive. It is this lack of competitiveness which now exaccerbates the severity of the downturn, just as many commentators, a href="http://russiatooat.blogspot.com/2007/12/inflation-in-russia-two-much-money.html"including yours truly/a, where arguing it would do. Frank Gill from Standard and Poor's puts it like this.br /br //pblockquoteAccompanied by generous government spending, the credit boom also fueled inflation, which weighed on the competitiveness of Russia's noncommodity sector. As wage growth averaged nearly 30 percent over the last two years and the ruble-denominated cost of production rose, domestic manufacturers found it very difficult to compete with cheap high-quality imports. As a consequence, entrepreneurs logically avoided manufacturing and, instead, invested in much more profitable and more import-intensive sectors, such as banking, retail and construction.br /br /The resulting structural imbalances were well camouflaged by the extraordinary growth in energy and other commodity prices. For six straight years, the earnings from Russian oil and commodity exports on world markets have increased much faster than the cost of imports, offsetting the less flattering volume effects. From 2003 through this year, the cumulative difference between export and import price inflation in Russia was a fairly remarkable 74 percent. This put upward pressure on the ruble, encouraging borrowers to take loans in dollars or euros at negative real interest rates, under the assumption that the ruble would appreciate indefinitely. But it also provided an important source of financing.br /Frank Gill, director of European sovereign ratings at Standard amp; Poor's in London, a href="http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/1016/42/373149.htm"writing in the Moscow Times/a /blockquotepThe critical part of the overheating process was to be found in the evolution of real wages which continuously outpaced productivity growth, thus undermining competitiveness. According to Rosstat, average real wage growth in the first nine months of 2008 was 12.8 percent, down from 16.2 percent during the same period in 2007 (see chart below). Meanwhile unemployment has continued to decline, and reached 5.3 percent in the third quarter, suggesting that at that point the economic slowdown had still not reached the labour market. But this is expected to change quite dramatically now, as the credit seize up and construction slump lead to lay offs in one enterprise after another./ppa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SUZyF4GNiQI/AAAAAAAALx0/lrKzfnucyPY/s1600-h/rus+prod+1.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5280033058421836034" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 194px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SUZyF4GNiQI/AAAAAAAALx0/lrKzfnucyPY/s320/rus+prod+1.png" border="0" //abr /The Russian government has implemented a programme - worth about $200 billion - involving a mixture of loans, tax cuts and other measures to boost liquidity and reduce borrowing costs as the 50-stock RTS Index heads for its worst year since 1998, while the ruble denominated Micex stock index is down 64 percent since 1 August. /pblockquote``It's a vortex of despair,'' said Julian Rimmer, head of sales trading at UralSib Financial Corp. Russian stocks are weighed down by ``an economy rendered sclerotic by the vanishing of credit, a market paralyzed by margin calls and illiquidity, the opacity of earnings through 2009 and the ruble quivering while speculators circle''.br //blockquotepFinance Minister Alexei Kudrin has said the government has already spent 90 billion rubles ($3.3 billion) out the available total of 175 billion rubles set aside for investing in domestic stocks and bonds. VTB Group (Vnesheconombank), Russia's second-biggest bank, lent 190 billion rubles ($6.9 billion) to companies in November alone as part of the plan following the supply of 120 billion rubles to what Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin termed the "real sector" (or non financial companies) in October./ppstrongFDI Drying Up?/strong/ppRussia's supply of foreign direct investment seems to be steadily drying up. During the first nine montsh of this year the country attracted 2.3 percent less foreign direct investment than it did in the same period in 2007 as the global credit squeeze reduced investor appetite for emerging market projects. Direct investment was running at $19.2 billion over the period, while total foreign investment, including credits and flows into securities markets, was $75.8 billion, a drop of almost 14 percent over 2007, according to the most recent data from the Federal Statistics Service. Foreign investment in stocks and bonds fell 16 percent to $1.3 billion. Foreign direct investment was at a record $27.8 billion in 2007, up 100% over 2006, and thus the fall has not been that dramatic, so far, but the numbers for the last quarter will undoubtedly be much worse than those for the earlier part of the year.br /br /strongSamp;P Downgradebr //strongbr /Russia’s long-term debt rating was lowered earlier this month - for the first time in nine years -by ratings agency Standard amp; Poor’s, who cited capital outflows and the “rapid depletion” of the foreign currency reserves as their justification. Russia's rating was cut one level to BBB, the second-lowest investment grade, and down from BBB+. The last time Samp;P downgraded Russia was in January 1999, when the country had a rating of SD (or ‘selective default’) following the government's decision to default on $40 billion of debt. Russia’s outlook remains “negative.” /pblockquote“The rapid depletion of reserves in order to resist a more substantive adjustment of the nominal exchange rate increases the chances of discontinuous exchange-rate movements later, at a lower level of international reserves, with even more severe consequences for the private sector,” said Frank Gill, Samp;P’s primary credit analyst in London, in the statement./blockquotebr /Samp;P said it expected Russia’s current-account surplus to swing into a deficit equivalent to 2.6 percent of gross domestic product next year, compared with a surplus of 5 percent in 2008 due to a “sharp deterioration in the country’s terms of trade”. Russia’s GDP growth is expected to decline “sharply” in 2009, according to the agency.br /br /Energy, including crude oil and natural gas, accounted for 73 percent of exports to countries outside of the former Soviet Union (not counting the three Baltic states), in the first 10 months of this year, according to data from the Federal Customs Service, while the federal budget is likely to “shift into deficit” as the government implements emergency tax cuts, commodities prices remain low, and a weaker economy generates less tax revenue, according to Samp;P. Russia’s budget surplus amounted to 7.8 percent of GDP in the first 10 months, according to Finance Ministry data, but so sharp is the turnaround that Russia may need to use most, or even all, of the money in its two oil funds to cover the budget deficit and recapitalize banks should oil prices stay at about current levels. These funds - the National Wellbeing Fund and the Reserve Fund - held a combined $209 billion as of 1 December.br /br /Moody’s Investors Service also changed Russia’s rating outlook at the end of November - to stable from positive - citing their opinion that the defense of the exchange rate has been "ineffective and extremely costly for official reserves".br /blockquote“Russia is now facing a perfect storm of falling commodity prices, weaker external demand, tighter credit conditions and slower real incomes growth for which no amount of currency adjustment can compensate,” Neil Shearing, an emerging-markets economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, said in a research note today. /blockquotebr /Russia's response to the crisis seems to be what might be termed a "process in development", with new measures being continuously announced. In one of the latest such "developments" Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said the government is thinking of using some of the funding to buy bank mortgages and will also provide 300 billion rubles ($11 billion) to guarantee corporate loans in a bid to boost liquidity. “In order to strengthen guarantees for loans, including loans for two and three years, the state must be ready to provide 300 billion rubles,” Kudrin said in a televised broadcast on the Russian state channel Vesti-24. “If necessary we can increase this limit.” Thirty billion rubles in loans are also to be provided to large airlines like Aeroflot and Transaero, according to First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, while Vnesheconombank, Russia’s state-run development bank, has now requested a total of 950 billion rubles ($34 billion) in government funds. To put all this in perspective, the latest amount requested by VEB represents more than 7.5 percent of Russia’s foreign-currency reserves.br /br /br /strongServices And Manufacturing Contractionbr //strongbr /Russia's real economy is shrinking very rapidly under the weight of all this. Russian service industries shrank in November at the fastest rate on record, and the VTB Bank Europe Services Sector Purchasing Managers’ Index was in contraction mode for a second consecutive month (registering 37.2, a sharp acceleration in the rate of contraction from the 47.4 reading in October). On such indexes a reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. The contraction in service industries was “by far” the biggest since the survey began in October 2001, according to the VTB statement. “Activity, new business, employment and backlogs all registered much steeper contractions than in October.”br /br /pa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ST5YzXONRqI/AAAAAAAALrk/-j4L4I5HHJ4/s1600-h/russia+services.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5277753452754978466" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 194px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ST5YzXONRqI/AAAAAAAALrk/-j4L4I5HHJ4/s320/russia+services.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /VTB Group’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index also showed a decline in November, this time for the fourth consecutive month, and the index registered a record low of 39.8, even lower than that of September 1998, when Russia defaulted on $40 billion of domestic debt and sharply devalued the ruble. /ppbr //pa href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ST5Z6pWljzI/AAAAAAAALrs/qaa9gk36xUs/s1600-h/russia+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5277754677392674610" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 195px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ST5Z6pWljzI/AAAAAAAALrs/qaa9gk36xUs/s320/russia+pmi.png" border="0" //abr /The manufacturing reading is also confirmed to some extent by the November industrial output data from Rostat, since output contracted year on year by 8.7 percent after a 0.6 percent rise in October. Production shrank for the first time since new methodology was introduced in 2003 and, again, this was the biggest decline since 1998. Manufacturing fell an annual 10.3 percent compared with growth of 0.3 percent in October. Steel pipe production dropped an annual 36.9 percent and coking coal output fell 38.7 percent. Truck and car production dropped 58.1 percent and 7.2 percent respectively. Russia’s largest steelmaker, OAO Severstal, have announced they are cutting output by half and plan to reduce spending 20 percent in 2009, while Ford Motor announced on 8 December it was closing its St. Petersburg factory between 24 December and 21 January.br /br /strongIs Russia On The Brink Of Outright Recession?br //strongbr /Russia may well already be in its first recession since 1998, according to what may well have been a slip of the tongue by Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach while Evgeny Gavrilenkov, chief economist at Troika Dialog, estimates that the word's largest energy exporter may already be running a current account deficit. blockquote“The recession has already begun and, I’m afraid, it won’t end in two quarters,” Klepach said in comments made in Moscow today that were confirmed by his press secretary.br //blockquotepbr /Klepach added that the economy would grow by less than the ministry’s current forecast of 6.8 percent for 2008, and that industrial output growth will slow to around 1.9 percent for the whole year.br /br /Gross domestic product growth dropped to 6.2 percent in the third quarter, and this was already the slowest pace in three years. Russia’s last economy fell into recession in the first quarter of 1998, and only returned to growth in the second quarter of 1999. Growth has averaged over 7 percent a year since 2000.br /br /As I said, Klepach's declaration may well have been a (Freudian?) slip of the tongue (or tongue twister) since he later qualified his statement, saying there had been some  linguistic confusion given that the Russian words “retsessiya” (recession) and “spad” (decline, slump) “mean the same thing". "This isn’t a technical recession in the American sense.” he said - referring to the fact that a recession is often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Actually the sticklers among us will note that the two quarters negative growth rule of thumb is not in fact the US criterion (since the NBER business cycle dating committee use their own "in house" methodology, as I explain a href="http://spaineconomy.blogspot.com/2008/12/as-spanish-unemployment-rises-sharply.html"in applying this methodology to Spain here/a), but he may be right, and what we have on our hands may best be termed a "slump" rather than a recession, but which ever it is, of one thing I am sure: the contraction has already started./ppWhatever the confusion, what Klepach did make clear is that he expected Russia’s economy to grow by only 2.6 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter (giving total growth for the year of 6 percent) and this does seem to suggest that the economy is already contracting on a  quarter on quarter basis.br /br /Equally worrying is the evolution in the current account deficit. The full impact of the fall in oil prices will only be noted in the trade and external current account data in the fourth quarter, when export deliveries based on the new lower oil prices will be effectd. But to this evident oil price impact we need to add the fact that the non-oil external current account deteriorated significantly in 2008 as import volumes shot up considerably faster than non-oil exports (the competitiveness problem). In the second quarter of 2008, the non-oil external current account deficit reached almost US 60 billion, and this was followed by a further  USD 62 billion in the third quarter, making Russia’s balance of payments position particularly vulnerable to a continuation in the low level of oil and gas prices.br /br /We also need to consider the problems Russia may now have in financing any such current account deficit (remember this one one of Samp;Ps concerns). The  World Bank estimates Russia’s external debt maturing in the third and fourth quarters of 2008 at around USD 100 billion, of which about USD 45 billion is due in the last quarter of 2008. After including on-demand deposits held by the banking sector, the total debt that requires repayment or refinancing may well exceed USD 120 billion. The external debt maturing for the entire 2009 fiscal year is slightly less, at around USD  100 billion. It is clear, however, that some sectors, especially private financial corporations, are going to face challenges in rolling-over their external debt under current conditions. Further, higher prices for debt refinancing are inevitable, and to all of this  you need to add-in the sharp drop in the stock values used as loan collateral which will have resulted in sizeable margin calls on lending facilities with 1-2 year maturities. /ppAll in all the World Bank reached the conclusion that the total debt due in the fourth quarter of 2008 could amount to about USD 60-65 billion. Even so, they concluded that systemic risk to the banking sector, while rising, remained limited due to the government’s resolve in supporting the systemically important banks and the sizable package of measures taken to date. It is hard to assess whether or not they are right in this evaluation, but in any event we are all just about to find out, so those of us who don't especially like mysteries won't have too long to wait.]]></description>
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		<title>Moscow&#8217;s Bourses Closed Again On Monday</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Oct 2008 10:40:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank Rossii]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[crude oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Evraz Group SA]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Urals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Well, this is hardly news anymore, but Moscow's stock markets were closed again this morning. The news will obviously be in future when they are open. Russia's Micex Stock Exchange and RTS suspended trading this morning because their "technical indexes'' a measure of aggregate stock prices, fell more than 10 percent on opening. <br /><br />Russian global depositary receipts plunged in London trading following the decision, led by steelmakers.  The FTSE Russia IOB Index, a measure of Russian depositary receipts trading in London, sank 11 percent to 312.83 at 9:36 a.m. in London, the lowest in almost five years.  OAO Severstal, Russia's biggest steelmaker, fell 23 percent to $2.50. Evraz Group SA, the second-largest steelmaker, dropped 15 percent to $10.60, or 92 percent below its May 16 high.<br /><br /><strong>The Ruble Slides</strong><br /><br /><br />The ruble fell to an 18-month low against the dollar this morning even while it strengthened for a second straight day versus an ever weaker euro. <br /><br />The currency, which policy makers manage against a dollar- euro basket in an attempt to protect the competitiveness of exporters, fell as much as 0.6 percent to 27.3738 per dollar, the weakest since April 2006. It was at 27.3624 by 11:01 a.m. in Moscow, from 27.1991 late on Oct. 24. The ruble jumped 0.9 percent to 34.0292 per euro, the strongest in almost two years. <br /><br />Bank Rossii, Russia's central bank, buys and sells foreign currency reserves to keep the ruble within a trading band against the basket. The basket rate is calculated by multiplying the ruble's rate to the dollar by 0.55, the euro rate by 0.45, then adding them together.  Russia's currency was little changed at 30.3757 against the basket, from 30.4096 at the end of last week, when it strengthened just 0.1 percent. The 30.40 level is regarded by most analysts as the weakest end of the central bank's trading band. Bank Rossii sold almost $11 billion supporting the ruble against the basket last week, according to estimates by Moscow's MDM Bank. <br /><br />Crude oil, Russia's biggest export earner, fell for a second day, extending its decline from a July 11 record of $142.27 to 57 percent. Urals crude, the nation's main export blend, slid 10 percent last week to $59.93, below the $70 average.]]></description>
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		<title>Oligarchs make the most of Russian M&amp;A activity</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/oligarchs-make-the-most-of-russian-ma-activity/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Oct 2008 16:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason Corcoran</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alexander Mamut]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrei Kostin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ANN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[auto parts maker]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[<strong>Financial News</strong><br /><br />Jason Corcoran in Moscow 13 October 2008 <br /><br /><em>Many holdings are up for sale</em><br /><br />Oligarchs on opposing sides of the cash crisis are set to trigger a boom in merger and acquisition activity in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States.<br /><br />Cash-tight tycoons are being forced to sell holdings to meet pending margin calls while their rouble-wealthy counterparts are sizing up distressed assets affected by the liquidity crunch.<br /><br />Oligarch Oleg Deripaska had to sell a stake in Canadian auto parts maker Magna to meet a $1bn (€734m) margin call while Ukrainian billionaire Kostyantin Zhevago was forced to sell a large stake in Swiss-based ore miner Ferrexpo worth $180 in order to meet a margin call by JP Morgan.<br /><br />Analysts are predicting Deripaska, who has $28bn, may have to divest further holdings in his Basic Element investment vehicle to shore up his finances.<br /><br />Marat Gabitov, a Moscow analyst at UniCredit, said: “We see the news as further confirmation that the global financial crisis may be worse than we previously deemed. We also see risks for other public names in which Deripaska controls significant minority stakes – Strabag, Hochtief and GM, of which we know that Strabag was financed with a bank loan.”<br /><br />Oligarchs with limited equity exposure are looking to pounce on distressed assets in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Rinat Akhmetov, the wealthiest man in Europe and Russia with an estimated fortune of $31.1bn, is putting together a war chest to fund an acquisition programme of coal assets worth between $50m and $500m in Russia, Ukraine and other parts of eastern Europe.<br /><br />Yuriy Ryzhenkov, chief financial officer of Akhmetov’s main Ukraine-based energy holding company DTEK told Financial News: “We are now looking outside Ukraine, having focussed ourselves domestically until recently. <br /><br />Now, we are looking at the resource base in Russia, especially regions close to Ukraine due to logistical reasons. We are also looking outside Ukraine westwards for new customers and new generations in Romania, Hungary and Poland. The assets there can have a synergy with existing assets in Ukraine.”<br /><br />Ryzhenkov said DTEK would like to buy assets cheaply and then turn them round. He said: “We have some core abilities to turn distressed assets round and it is our experience in Ukraine and especially in coalmining to work on geologically difficult assets.”<br /><br />Stephen Jennings, chief executive of Renaissance Capital, is forecasting an M&#38;A boom for his brokerage as Russian and CIS businessmen are forced to sell to those with liquidity.<br /><br />He said: “Consolidation in finance, for instance among banks, brokers and asset managers, will be extraordinary.”<br /><br />Jennings last month sold half his business to oligarch Mikhail Prokhorov’s Onexim investment fund for $500m, even though Renaissance had been valued by bankers at $3bn to $4bn a year ago when VTB Bank made its approach.<br /><br />The Wall Street Journal revealed that Dutch bank Fortis had appealed directly to billionaire Suleiman Kerimov’s Millennium Fund during the summer for a €400m ($546m) cash injection in the context of a share issue.<br /><br />Swiss-based Millennium Fund already owns about 2% of Fortis shares along with stakes in US investment bank Morgan Stanley, Swiss bank Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank of Germany, according to the Wall Street Journal.<br /><br />Analysts are predicting Kerimov might return his attention to Russia having sold down his stakes in blue chips before the downturn. Oligarchs exposed to Russia’s property and construction sectors are already offloading assets and freezing developments as the country’s real estate bubble shows signs of bursting.<br /><br />Ratings agency Fitch said reports that Sistema-Hals is likely to sell almost a quarter of its projects to raise up to $500m of cash and that developer Mirax is likely to undertake something similar highlight a deterioration in the funding environment for developers.<br /><br />Sistema-Hals is the listed property arm of conglomerate Sistema, headed by oligarch Vladimir Evtushenkov, while Mirax is owned by billionaire Sergei Polonsky.<br /><br />Mirax, Sistema-Hals and Inteko headed by Russia’s wealthiest woman Yelena Baturina have already announced project freezes over the next year, according to reports in the Russian press.<br /><br />Liquidity problems have extended to Russia’s consumer sector.<br /><br />Yevgeny Chichvarkin, chairman of Russia’ largest mobile phone retailer Euroset, said he had sold his company for “a few kopeks” to billionaire Alexander Mamut after being unable to find a bank to refinance its debt.<br /><br />Mamut’s investment company ANN may have used some of those proceeds from his sale of a 38% stake in insurer Ingosstrakh to Czech investment firm PPF for €600m to acquire 100% of Euroset for $400m.<br /><br />State banks such as VTB are also planning to capitalise on assets trading at distressed levels then resell them later for a profit. VTB chief executive Andrei Kostin told a Reuters summit in September that the bank is accumulating a “cash fist” to potentially buy stakes in businesses. <br /><br />Russian banking, consumer and real estate sectors were mentioned, as well as banking assets abroad. Some oligarchs and billionaires had the prescience or good fortune to offload large stakes in Russian blue chips before the market slide, which has wiped 60% of the value of the domestic equity markets since late July. Tycoons were encourage to buy into “People’s IPOs” by the Kremlin in the past couple of years, including Rosneft, Sberbank and VTB.<br /><br />One Moscow trader said: “Some oligarchs sold out after a year of these major listings. They locked in some profit and got out but others have been hurt.”<br /><br />Baturina almost halved her stake in state savings bank Sberbank from 0.68% to 0.38% after the shares lost half their value during the second quarter this year.<br /><br />Baturina, who has an estimated fortune of $4bn, initially bought into Sberbank last year following the bank’s IPO.<br /><br />Her equity fund Kontinental’s proceeds from securities sold in the second quarter came to 5.4bn roubles (€151m), according to the fund’s financial statement.<br /><br />Kerimov, who owns Nafta Moskva oil refinery, is reported in the Russian press to have sold down his 6% stake in Sberbank and 4.5% stake in energy group Gazprom.<br /><br />Kerimov has also sold stakes in silver producer Polymetal for around $2bn, in a construction project for $3.5bn and in NTK cable TV operator for another $1.5bn.<br /><br />Filaret Galchev, owner of Russia’s largest cement producer Eurocement, has cut his stake in Sberbank to 1.85% from 3%. Galchev has since acquired a 6% stake in Swiss cement group Holcim.<br /><br />Recruiters are reporting a growing trend by oligarchs to hire seasoned fund managers and bankers from investment firms and banks as they increased their private equity-style investment funds.<br /><br />Millhouse, the investment vehicle of Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, hired the general director of MDM Bank’s MDM Asset Management in July to run its portfolio of investments while Prokorov’s main strategist and head of Onexim is Dmitry Razumov, a former banker at Renaissance Capital.]]></description>
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		<title>Today in Russian Business &#8211; Oct 14, 2008</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/today-in-russian-business-oct-14-2008/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/today-in-russian-business-oct-14-2008/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Oct 2008 06:03:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[equities trader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MDM Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mikhail Prokhorov]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Norilsk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RUB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia's Renaissance Capital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Other Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vladimir Potanin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[vladimir putin]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[What’s the deal with the Kremlin’s opaque ‘<em>secretive anti-crisis task force</em>’, wonders the <a href="http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/600/42/371632.htm">Moscow Times</a>?  An equities trader at Russia’s <strong>Renaissance Capital </strong>lost the company <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/14/business/worldbusiness/14rencap.html?ref=business">an estimated $10 million</a> by placing unauthorized bets just as the stock market collapsed.  <strong>Vladimir Putin</strong>’s comments yesterday about the <a href="http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/600/42/371648.htm">failure of government measures</a> to prevent the financial crisis from affecting Russia’s real sector have been picked up by opposition party <a href="http://www.theotherrussia.org/2008/10/13/financial-crisis-spilling-into-real-russian-economy/">The Other Russia</a>, which also reports on the estimated 37 billion rubles that Russian consumers have <a href="http://www.theotherrussia.org/2008/10/13/russians-withdrew-37-billion-rubles-in-september/">withdrawn from their banks</a> due to uncertainty about the security of their savings.  Medvedev, meanwhile, has increased the value of bank deposits that the <a href="http://en.rian.ru/business/20081013/117712290.html">government will insure</a>.  <strong>Vladimir Potanin</strong> has sold <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/mergersNews/idUSLD54854420081013">$600 million worth</a> of assets to <strong>Norilsk Nickel</strong>.  Is it a blow to add to the <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1/3233c0a6-9988-11dd-9d48-000077b07658.html">collective woes</a> of Russia’s oligarchs, or a shrewd business move?  Norilsk's board member <strong>Mikhail Prokhorov</strong>, currently thought to be feuding with Potanin, warned that the company could <a href="http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/600/42/371651.htm">go bankrupt</a> if it proceeded with a planned share buyback.  <strong>Alisher Usmanov </strong>has insisted he will not sell his stake in football club <strong>Arsenal</strong> because he is ‘<em><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2008/oct/14/premierleague-arsenal">in love</a></em>’ with it.  <strong>VTB </strong>shows it is <a href="http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/600/42/371631.htm">feeling the effects</a> of the crisis, applying for government money.  In the period leading up to the crisis, <strong>MDM Bank </strong>reported a <a href="http://en.rian.ru/business/20081013/117706235.html">three-fold net profit rise</a>.  ]]></description>
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