This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Richard Ennis (CFA Institute): The uncorrelated return myth, November/December 2009.

• Peter Clarke (Financial Times): How to avoid a repeat of the Great Crash, October 28, 2009. The chain of events leading from a collapse in stock prices on Wall Street to a Great Depression has leapt from history with an entirely fresh verisimilitude. John Authers (Financial Times): GDP grows, but pain remains, October 29, 2009. US GDP numbers were a good enough reason to halt the return of risk aversion, but the key to whether risk appetite can return depends on US employment data.

• Economist.com: As joyless recovery, October 29, 2009. New figures suggest that America has at last moved out of recession.

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In yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, Martin Feldstein, Ronald Reagan’s top economist and a Harvard professor, claims the current health care proposals are all about rationing.  I have to disagree. Excerpts from his article are below, along with my critique. "Although administration officials are eager to deny it, rationing health care is central to President Barack Obama's health plan. The Obama strategy is to reduce health costs by rationing the services that we and future generations of patients will receive. "The White House Council of Economic Advisers issued a report in June explaining the Obama Administration's goal of reducing projected health spending by 30% over the next two decades. That reduction would be achieved by eliminating 'high cost, low-value treatments' by 'implementing a set of performance measures that all providers would adopt' and by 'directly targeting individual providers . . . (and other) high-end outliers.'" First and ...

Richard Posner has a critique of public intellectuals who work in the public sphere (with special reference to Christina Romer), either in government service, or in journalistic fora. Mark Thoma and Brad Delong have already made clear the (many) points at which Mr. Posner has gone astray. Parenthetically, I'll add that I wonder about the analytical abilities of anybody who lumps Phillip Glass (!) and Elliott Carter together into the highbrow music category (see page 18 in his tome Public Intellectuals: A Study of Decline (1991)). More substantively, I have a few of additional observations, some of which are amplifications of Brad Delong's points.

First, I agree with Mark Thoma that Mr. Posner apparently has little understanding of macroeconomics, either of old-style Keynesian type, or the new(er) real business cycle type, or certainly New Keynesian approaches. His charge that her current pronouncements are at sharp variance with

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy. Please also add the links to any other thought-provoking articles you would like to share to the comments section.

• Paul Krugman (The New York Times): Averting the worst, August 9, 2009. So it seems that we aren’t going to have a second Great Depression after all. What saved us? The answer, basically, is Big Government.

• Niall Ferguson (Financial Times): A runaway deficit may soon test Obama’s luck, August 10, 2009. Six months in, “Felix the Prez” still has the look of a lucky, two-term president. But that could change if voters become even more disenchanted with the legislative branch and start blaming the president for the looming fiscal train-wreck.

• Simon Johnson (The Baseline Scenario):

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The Dow Jones Industrial Index on Thursday breached 9,000 for the first time since January and the Nasdaq Composite Index notched up a 12th consecutive advancing day (the first time sine 1992) as favorable reactions to earnings and economics reports propelled stocks and other risky assets higher. Meanwhile, the usual debate on the outlook for the economy and shenanigans of financial institutions again dominated the video channels over the past few days.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s bi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill (and an expected grilling by Alan Grayson) and other highlights of the week’s trials and tribulations were captured on video and are included in this video-o-rama compilation. Strutting their stuff were a star-studded cast including the likes of Martin Feldstein, Stephen Roach, Bill King, Nouriel Roubini, Sheila Bair, Mario Gabelli and George Friedman.

The compilation starts off with an interview with Harvard’s Martin Feldstein about his “double-dip” economic

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A "W" Recession?

Martin Feldstein has recently raised the possibility that we might experience a relapse into recession in 2010 (a perfect symmetrical W), with the next dip in 2010. In my view, this means (1) we should have opted for a bigger and better composed stimulus package, and (2) the timing of expenditures in the stimulus package might not be as problematic as many commentators have indicated.

"I think we"re going to see a temporary substantial improvement," Feldstein, the former head of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a Reagan administration adviser, said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. "I emphasize the words temporary and substantial."

Feldstein -- a member of the private panel that dates the start of recessions and recoveries -- suggested the economy will contract into next year, and that the pattern of economic turnaround will be more of a seesaw than what he

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days (while touring through Europe) that you may also enjoy.

• Gary Stix (Scientific American): The science of economic bubbles and busts, July 2009. The worst economic crisis since the Great Depression has prompted a reassessment of how financial markets work and how people make decisions about money.

• Matt Taibbi (Rolling Stone Magazine): The great American bubble machine, July 9-23, 2009. From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression - and they’re about to do it again.

• Bill Gross (Pimco - Investment Outlook): “Bon” or “non” appétit?, July 2009. Investors who stuffed themselves on a constant diet of asset appreciation for the past quarter-century will now be

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This post provides links to some thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest.

• Paul McCulley (Pimco - Global Central Bank Focus): The shadow banking system and Hyman Minsky’s economic journey, May 2009. As we look for answers about the current financial crisis, it’s clear that creative financing played a massive role in propelling the global financial system to hazy new heights - before leading the way into the depths of a systemic crisis. But how did financing get so creative? It didn’t happen within the confines of a regulated banking system, which submits to strict regulatory requirements in exchange for the safety of government backstopping. Instead, financing got so creative through the rise of a “shadow banking system,” which operated legally, yet almost completely outside the realm of bank regulation. The rise of this system drove

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This post provides links to some thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest.

• Mohamed El-Erian (PIMCO – Secular Outlook): A new normal, May 2009.

• Martin Feldstein (The Wall Street Journal): Tax increases could kill the recovery, May 14, 2009. The cap-and-trade levy would hit low-income earners especially hard.

• The Economist: Crouching tigers, May 13, 2009. Asian economies are likely to be the first to pull out of the global recession.

• Jeremy Siegel (Yahoo Finance): Should you bother with government bonds?, May 12, 2009.

• Andy Kessler (Wall Street Journal): Was it a sucker’s rally?, May 12, 2009. You can have a jobless recovery but you can’t have a profitless one.

• Martin Wolf (Financial Times):

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The video clips below come via my hotel room at Dana Point, California, where I am attending a conference hosted by Rob Arnott’s Research Affiliates. Also present are financial luminaries such as Peter Bernstein, Burton Malkiel, Harry Markowitz and Jack Treynor. It will be fascinating to hear whether these gentlemen see any signs of the economy starting to bottom, and how they are investing at this juncture.

On the video front, the IMF upped its forecast of total global credit crisis-related losses to $4.1 trillion by the end of 2010 and the Congressional Oversight Panel on Tarp conducted a hearing on Capitol Hill, whereas a host of commentators - including Martin Feldstein, Joseph Stiglitz, Nouriel Roubini, Frederic Mishkin, Paul McCulley and John Mauldin - weighed in with a combination of gloomy and “bottom-in-sight” economic forecasts, as well as comments on the imminent results of the

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