Too severe, or not too severe; that is the question.

I’m talking about the U.S. recession that we’re already in, about to be in, or hoping to avoid.

At this point it depends a lot on how you approach the subject, but assuming for a moment that recession is inevitable, analysts and economists are asking: How much will growth contract? Can Mr. U.S. consumer muddle through, or will he stumble and fall? And how much have financial markets already discounted an official recession?

Today, I’ll answer these questions and tell you what to expect in the currency markets, namely the U.S. dollar. First, let’s address …

HOW to Identify a Recession

Unfortunately, pinpointing the magnitude and velocity of a recession before it has ended isn’t as easy as measuring the change in …