The 3.5% growth rate was, in my view, in large part attributable to direct measures to stimulate the economy, including direct spending on goods and services by the government (Federal, state and local), as well as tax measures. First, let's take a look at how each category of final demand accounted for total growth, in the context of a mechanical decomposition, in Figure 1.

Figure 1: GDP growth and contributions to growth of GDP, in ppts; GDP (black), consumpion (red), fixed investment (green), inventory investment (orange), government consumption (purple), and net exports (light brown). Non-shaded area denotes 2009Q3 advance release. Source: BEA, 2009Q3 advance release, October 29, 2009.

Figure 1 breaks down the contributions of overall growth into the broad national income accounting components (overall investment decomposed into fixed and inventory investment). Interestingly, the contribution of government is fairly modest in Q3 (Note change of vertical axis

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This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest. Please also add the links to any other thought-provoking articles you would like to share to the comments section.

• Paul Marson (Financial Times): Cause for caution on US earnings, August 12, 2009. The US second-quarter earning season is now ending, apparently on a good note as nearly three quarters of US companies have beaten consensus expectations. But a closer look at these earnings shows there is cause to be more cautious about the health of corporate America than the headline numbers would suggest. The cloud of euphoria that followed recent results had more to do with extraordinarily low expectations, than to any meaningful and lasting improvement in prospects, which still require a rapid recovery in economic activity. This suggests

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Peter Schiff: Why this Money Should Replace the U.S. Dollar There’s a new universal currency, backed by solid gold. You can use it to make online purchases anywhere in the world. Converting some money to the new currency takes just 5 minutes. You can start with as little as $10…or as much as $10 million. According to CNBC star analyst and Euro Pacific Capital President Peter Schiff, this money could double the value of your savings – automatically – in just 6-9 months. For Schiff’s full analysis and recommendations, please go here.

U.S. GDP Contraction Slows, but the Road to Recovery Will Be Rocky

By Bob Blandeburgo
Associate Editor
Money Morning

While the many of the world’s economies continue to look for signs of growth, the U.S. economy took a big step in the right the direction in the second quarter.

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 1% in the second quarter, …

Peter Schiff: Why this Money Should Replace the U.S. Dollar There’s a new universal currency, backed by solid gold. You can use it to make online purchases anywhere in the world. Converting some money to the new currency takes just 5 minutes. You can start with as little as $10…or as much as $10 million. According to CNBC star analyst and Euro Pacific Capital President Peter Schiff, this money could double the value of your savings – automatically – in just 6-9 months. For Schiff’s full analysis and recommendations, please go here.

While the many of the world’s economies continue to look for signs of growth, the U.S. economy took a big step in the right the direction in the second quarter.

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 1% in the second quarter, following the first quarter’s 6.4% drop. The $787 billion Obama stimulus package, smaller decreases in business spending …

While most of the attention yesterday was focused on Ben Bernanke's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee (not much new came out in that one, Ben says the recovery will be anemic, inflation will not be a problem and the Fed has a plan to drain the liquidity before it causes problems), the same committee held another hearing in the afternoon focused on the reform of the financial regulatory structure. Among the witnesses were Alice Rivlin, the former #2 at the Fed in the 1990's, Mark Zandi of Moody's Economics and Simon Johnson, the former chief economist at the IMF. Among the key points that came out of it were that there were 2 basic approaches to preventing the need for future bailouts. One focused on better regulation particularly of those who are too big to fail, and the other is to make sure that institutions don't ...

In the Sunday Chicago Tribune, there was an interesting article "Still Looking for the Housing Market Bottom," which cited Mark Zandi, Chief Economist For Moody'sEconomy.com and the author of "Financial Shock." Mr. Zandi stated that the forecast of a housing market bottom is coming into view, and it occurs in several stages.First stage in calling a bottom is seeing greater stability in housing demand. Since last year, new and existing home sales have stabilized, not having gone up or down. About half of the existing sales are distressed foreclosures or short sales. In addition, builders have regained control of their inventory.Second stage in calling a bottom, prices stop declining. While Mr. Zandi sees another 5-10% decline (about 40% below the high), it could take until next spring. He also expects a substantial decline in the summer with a "sure" in "foreclose," as well.And ...

But for the many reasons we’ve described in these reckonings, we doubt that we’ve seen the last of this bear market.

“Either cuts in spending or increases in taxes will be necessary to stabilize the fiscal situation,” said Ben Bernanke in response to a question posed by a Member of Congress. Then, he added…

“The Federal Reserve will not monetize the debt.”

That last sentence has a ring to it. It reminds us of Richard Nixon’s “I am not a crook.” Surely, it is destined to make its way into the history books, alongside Bill Clinton’s “I did not have sex with that woman” and the builder of the Titanic’s “even God himself couldn’t sink this ship.”

Monetizing the debt is precisely what the Fed will do. But it will not do so precisely. Instead, it will act clumsily… reluctantly… incompetently… accidentally… and finally, catastrophically.

That’s our prediction, here at the Daily

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Employers cut 539,000 jobs in April, the lowest total in six months, but the Labor Department said the unemployment rate still soared to 8.9%, from 8.5% in March. While some analysts viewed the latest report as a sign of a nascent economic recovery, the unemployment numbers are almost certain to head higher before the recession is declared over.

Last week’s report could have been worse if the numbers hadn’t been held in check by a burst of federal government hiring of temporary workers to prepare for the 2010 Census.

The report was also skewed by the way the government categorizes the unemployed.  As Money Morning previously reported, if laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have settled for part-time work are included, the numbers skyrocket.

In fact, if the latest unemployment report had included those workers, the rate would have soared

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