This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest.

• Mike Shedlock (Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis): Is the stock market a leading indicator?, October 12, 2009. The stock market is at best a coincident indicator, known only well after the fact. Furthermore, even as a coincident indicator, the stock market gives many false signals, making it totally useless for all practical purposes. The theory that the stock market is a reliable leading indicator is a myth easily shattered by simple observation of the facts.

• Caroline Baum (Bloomberg): Treasury bond rally fails asset-bubble test, October 13, 2009. Bubble sightings are proliferating by the day, and with interest rates near zero, it’s not hard to understand why. Easy money leads to excess credit creation, which eventually produces

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Mark Hulbert’s Sept. 11, 2009, column for MarketWatch.com says, Robert Prechter “came the closest … to forecasting what was about to take place.” One thing the noted financial columnist left out was that many of Prechter’s forecasts still lie in the future. The long-awaited second edition of Prechter’s bestseller, Conquer the Crash, is finally here! Prudent investors should read his prescient insights, what he believes is still ahead and what you can do to protect your wealth today. Learn more about the special pre-order offer for Robert Prechter’s bestseller, Conquer the Crash, Second Edition.

Today’s financial and economic tribulations were a long time in the making. Many people ask, “Why didn’t someone see it coming?”

But a New York …

I published a post a few days ago on the issue of whether stock markets were in a secondary (i.e. cyclical bull) or primary bull market.

I quoted a research project by Ned Davis (Ned Davis Research) in which he identified seven dimensions one could use to compare the March 9 low with secular lows of the past. The research showed that only one of the seven criteria indicated a secular bull was in place, whereas three were neutral and three were bearish. Although Davis believed the nascent rally had more upside potential, he concluded, like Richard Russell, that we were dealing with an extended rally (cyclical bull phase) within a secular bear market.

Davis has now turned his focus to what criteria would signal that one should exit the rally. His yardsticks were reported by Mark Hulbert on MarketWatch and

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Ever since Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) called a “Dow Theory bull signal” last Thursday, the debate has been rekindled as to whether the US stock markets are experiencing a primary (secular) bull market or a rally within a primary bear market, i.e. a secondary or so-called cyclical bull phase.

As mentioned previously, Russell views the March 9 low as a secondary low, saying: “We are now in a cyclical bull market as opposed to a secular or primary bull market. In effect, we’re in an extended bear market rally. The true bear market bottom lies somewhere ahead.”

Irrespective of terminology, 64% of the readers of the Investment Postcards blog see the current phase as one characterized by “irrational exuberance”, as cleaned from a quick poll a few days ago.

As always, there are various signals pointing in different directions. The 200-day moving average of

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Hundreds of economic and stock-market indicators exist, but many won’t be relevant – even if you could decipher them.  Here are a few stock market indicators that are both reliable and readable to everyday investors.

U.S. stocks just capped off their strongest two-week performance since 1938. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is surging toward its third straight week of gains, something it’s done only three times since the bear market in U.S. stocks started 78 weeks ago.

And the Nasdaq Composite Index has erased its year-to-date losses and is now is up for the year.

The path of least resistance is now higher,” Miller Tabak & Co. LLC equity strategist Peter Bookvar told MarketWatch.com, citing such factors as not-as-bad-as-feared economic reports, optimism over Obama administration economic fix-it plans, and a recent jump in commodity prices that “has done

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Not much happened in gold on Tuesday. The top was in around 10:00 a.m. in London trading…just like Monday. From there it got sold off a bit…and the boyz in New York finished the job. Volume in gold yesterday was light…81,377 contracts less a switch effect of 4,870.

With some notable exceptions, gold is never allowed to rise into, or during, an FOMC meeting.

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Silver’s path was similar…and one could be forgiven if one thought that Tuesday’s price action looked suspiciously similar to Monday’s. Silver’s trading volume was extremely light.

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Monday’s gold activity brought a decline in open interest of 5,741 contracts. Silver o.i. actually rose 30 contracts. Cut-off for this Friday’s COT is today, so whatever o.i. changes are reported later this

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As expected, the Thursday morning rally at the Sydney open got snuffed out in short order. Gold remained flat in Hong Kong until 4:00 p.m. in their afternoon …3:00 a.m. in New York. Then the boyz showed up, and down gold went until the London open, a short rally got turned over, and the bottom for the gold price came at the London a.m. fix. From there it rallied gently until the London p.m. fix…and then away it went to the upside.

Silver was the same, except it didn’t wait around for the London p.m. fix before it headed up. Its rally began promptly with the Comex open in New York. Both metals remained strong even in electronic trading after the Comex closed…and despite the strength of the US$.

Gold open interest dropped another sizeable chunk on Wednesday…down 8,387 contracts to 345,804. In silver, o.i. went the other way for the second

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Jeff is traveling, so we are republishing his recent interview from the Kirk Report, one of our featured sources.  The Kirk Report is an excellent investor resource, with many specific stock ideas for members.  Charles Kirk also reads very widely and provides regular links to articles we might otherwise have missed.  He came up with some excellent questions for the interview, getting Jeff to discuss many topics he has not covered on "A Dash." Here is the Kirk Report interview: It is with great pleasure to have Jeff Miller, from A Dash Of Insight, to participate in this month's Q&A. Many of you know Jeff because I've linked to many (if not the vast majority) of his blog posts. In this Q&A we'll cover a variety of topics ...

Today’s post comes from a guest blog, New Rules of Investing:

Institutional investors have powerful tools at their disposal to screen through reams of data.  Part of the institutional investment process entails screening through thousands of securities looking for a needle in a haystack — stocks that fit certain investment criteria.  From thousands of stocks, analysts can filter through a couple of hundred that fit these so called screens.  With a couple of hundred stocks in hand, analysts set out to do the hard work analyzing these companies, comparing them to one another, speaking to management and whatever else hedge fund and mutual fund analysts do when looking at prospective investments.

If I’m a value investor, I’m probably going to use some metrics that focus on Return on Capital (RoC) or Return on Equity (RoE) and Earnings Yield (E/P).  Growth investors might

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When I worked for an investment bank during the dotcom boom, I recall in early 2000 publishing a bearish note on a leading European semiconductor company, which like all tech stocks was on a ludicrous earnings and revenue multiple. It was a top down, reality check piece of research, which asked a simple question: what future market share is the current valuation implicitly assuming? It turned out that even on the most bullish assumptions of consumer device growth, they would have to capture just about 100% of the market to remotely justify their market value, and in a competitive market that was never going to happen. We presented that note to some of the leading global investment institutions who held the stock, and with few exceptions, despite the compelling simplicity of the argument, they retained their bullish stance. Within weeks the Nasdaq crash had started, and within a couple …