The following is a list of the S&P 500 firms where the analysts have been cutting their expectations for the current fiscal year the most over the last month. Most likely these firms reported disappointing earnings or gave negative guidance on their conference calls.

Historically, you have not wanted to be invested in companies where the analysts who follow them most closely see the earnings prospects diminishing. Also, estimates in motion tend to remain in motion. The first bit of bad news is rarely the last (the cockroach theory). This means that the current expectations, even though down from last month, are probably still to high for these firms.

To weed out anomalies, only those firms that are currently expected to earn more than $0.50 in 2009 are included and only those firms where there are a minimum of three estimates in the system.

If you have these stocks in your portfolio,

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As the economy deteriorates, one of the first casualties will be corporate profits.  Earnings estimates have been falling very fast for 2009.  Recently estimate cuts for 2009 have been running at about 8x the number of estimate increases.  P/E-based valuations become tricky in such an environment -- you are shooting at a moving target.  One way around this is to focus on the low (or most pessimistic) estimate, rather than on the mean estimate.  Assume that everyone else will move to where the biggest pessimist is now. This is not to say that the most pessimistic analyst today can't be too optimistic, but at least he will be closer than most. On this basis, there are some very compelling values out there. 

Below we present a list of the cheapest S&P 500 companies based on 2009 low estimates.  Since I simply do not trust the numbers, I have excluded from

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