The Fed’s FOMC announcement came out…

We got exactly what I expected, a kind of wishy-washy, “hedging our bets” statement from the Fed. You have to remember that Bernanke was Greenspan’s right hand man for much of the bubble days of the ‘90s and early ‘00s, so the guy is an expert at walking both sides of the line when it comes to policy and public statements.

For instance, the Fed announced it would keep interest rates between 0% and 0.25% for an “extended period.” No surprise there. As I’ve noted previously, 80%+ of the $200+ trillion in derivatives sitting on US commercial banks’ balance sheets are related to interest rates.

For the Fed to hint at raising rates (let alone raise them) would kick off a systemic implosion that would wipe out the very guys the Fed has been bailing out. Suffice to say the Fed won’t be raising interest rates …

Is the recession technically over? The strongest argument for recovery we’ve seen yet… Rob Parenteau shares his new macro economic forecast… “Told you so!” writes Byron King — “breaking news” he and The 5 scooped in March 2008… Plus, Chris Mayer’s latest contrarian play…

Our forecast today: The government and mainstream media will soon be calling the end of the recession. Leading this feeble cause is the latest ISM manufacturing index, probably the most powerful argument for recovery we’ve seen yet:

This morning, the ISM said its gauge of manufacturing activity had risen to 52.9 in August – out of contraction for the first time since the recession began and the highest score since June 2007. Of course, things are a bit different now, but over the last 60 years, when the manufacturing sector returns to growth, the recession has already ended. That prospect

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Each year, generally in May, the Energy Information Administration publishes a less-than-eagerly-anticipated tome called the International Energy Outlook, 250+ pages of mind-numbing text, charts, graphs, and tables.

No one reads it. The mainstream media ignore it.

It’s the product of the best prognosticators in the Department of Energy. Okay, that may be what puts most people off. But if you’re patient enough to dig into it, it will cough up some fascinating nuggets of information.

The present edition is no exception. The report refrains from spelling out the conclusion that seems most obvious from its data. However, confirming a trend begun just last year, the 2009 edition clearly reveals that the government has been forced to admit that Peak Oil is coming. Moreover, it’s expected to arrive much faster than was believed as recently as two years ago.

This represents a remarkable turnaround in the agency’s opinion. Up until 2008, they were predicting unbroken

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Markets Set Up For Blow-Off Top?

by The Investment U Research Team

With fear subsiding that the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression has been averted, the global markets resumed their uptrend from last week, stocks jumped this morning.

And while that’s a good thing for many looking to recover some of their losses, it’s not entirely “coming up roses.”

The concern is that without strong fundamentals driving this market upswing, we are setting ourselves up for a blow-off top – a trading pattern that is marked by an increase in volume and sharp upward price movement followed by a severe drop.

Anyone see some similarities here?

Over the past couple of weeks we’ve heard the mainstream media talk about a significant pullback, which talk of such has almost dried up. This is either proof that there won’t

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A few days ago the Russian mainstream media were talking about all the agreements reached with Turkey during the most recent visit of the Prime Minister, hailing the accords as the latest Putinite achievement. Supposedly positive but vague results were achieved with respect to negotiations on the construction of the South Stream and Blue Stream gas pipelines; on the Samsun-Ceyhan oil pipeline, as well as the construction of nuclear power stations. In covering the Turkey visit, they showed the joy of Turkish and Italian prime ministers in signing these deals, and the unintelligible babble of the Russian one, who was able to clearly express a thought about how the Turks - are "difficult negotiators."

But so many gas pipelines -

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What the heck is going on? The Dow has just had its best weekly performance since March 2000. CNBC is full of whopping and high-fiving. The Obama administration is breathing an audible sigh of relief. And mom and pop investors all across the US are no doubt considering putting more of their savings back into the market.

Yet here at Notes we remain cautiously bearish. Why? Because it is our humble opinion that this remains a bear market rally, impressive as it is. Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg says the rally lacks three key ingredients:

Leadership Quality Volume

History is littered with such bursts of euphoria. Probably the most infamous is the bear market rally of 1930. Stocks recovered strongly following the November 13, 1929 low. Wall Street became wildly confident that the worst of the crash was over. And for a time the bulls were dead on. From a low at 199 on November 13

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Understanding Earnings Surprises: What to Look For & Their Meaning For Investors

by Marc Lichtenfeld, Advisory Panelist

There have been many earnings announcements lately that have surprised investors and analysts. And this has resulted in some significant gains in stock prices.

But don’t take these quarterly results at face value.

Earnings and guidance are very conservative this year, so it shouldn’t come as a shock when a company beats its projections. Just because a company like Caterpillar crushes its estimates, it doesn’t mean the business is humming along. It just means they beat the estimate.

That said, at a time like this, it’s important to figure out why the earnings come in better than expected. Were sales higher than forecasted? Did margins improve? Was it due to a lower tax rate? Lower general and administrative costs (layoffs)?

There are a number of reasons why a company might spring a surprise. Let’s take a look

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The mainstream media couldn’t predict the biggest bear market in 100 years; how do you expect them to anticipate what will unfold next? Watch this quick video clip from financial analyst and sought-after speaker Steven Hochberg about why you should challenge the consensus view for inflation. Then access the full 20-minute video, FREE.

Deflation is Winning. Are You?The mainstream media couldn’t predict the biggest bear market in 100 years; how do you expect them to anticipate what
will unfold next? Watch this quick video clip from financial analyst and sought-after speaker Steven Hochberg

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Yesterday, the mainstream media whooped and shrieked over the tough sentence handed down to swindler Bernie Madoff. “Madoff got what he deserved,” wrote the columnists. “Mr Madoff’s crimes were extraordinarily evil,” said Judge Denny Chin, who also told the jury that Madoff’s pyramid scheme was “staggering” and “off the chart.”

Nobody seemed particularly interested in the far greater scam being pulled off on a daily basis by the US government (a scam that, incidentally, pays for Judge Chin’s salary and Madoff’s stay in the “big house”).

But it’s clear to us here at Notes at least that the government’s $15 billion a day borrowing habit dwarfs Madoff’s $65 billion Ponzi scheme.

As of June 18 2009, total US federal debt was $11,342,734,351,973 -  or about $36,989 for every American. This represents 82.5% of one year’s worth of US economic output as measured by GDP. President Obama’s 2010 budget estimates that total debt relative to GDP

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As California goes, so will the US. It is our strong suspicion here at Notes that California’s fiscal crisis (what is really a profligate spending crisis) is but a prelude to the coming national debt crisis.

Last Thursday, ratings agency Fitch dropped the Golden State’s credit rating to A-minus and immediately placed that on negative credit watch. California shares three major problems with the US. It faces:

A crippling budget deficit Declining tax revenues A legislature that won’t face up to critical issues.

Over the weekend, we read in wonder that by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office’s own estimation America’s national debt is now growing so quickly that it will exceed the size of the economy in 2023 – seven years earlier than the projections of the last report just 18 months ago!

This from The Caucus, the politics and government blog at the New York Times:

The culprit is not the huge sum of stimulus spending that President ...