In October, overall Industrial Production rose by 0.1%, far below the 0.6% increase registered in September and the 1.3 increase registered in August. It was also well below the 0.4% consensus expectations. To my mind, this is one of the most important economic reports, and one that does not get anywhere near the attention it deserves in the press. The September numbers were revised down from 0.7% growth, while the August numbers were revised up from 1.2%, so call it a wash on the revisions -- although they do make the slowdown more dramatic. Of far more concern than just the raw slowdown in the numbers was the source of the meager increase. Industrial production has three major categories: manufacturing, mining and utilities. Of these, manufacturing is by far the most important. Mining is a relatively small sector in the U.S., and while utility output is important, ...

The Economist’s Buttonwood Gathering, a conference bringing together global regulators and bankers to discuss and debate new ideas and develop a new set of guidelines moving forward, has just taken place in New York. Michael Panzer, writer of the Financial Armageddon blog and author of “Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse”, was in attendance and has kindly shared some of the more interesting quotes on his blog, as reported below.

Secretary Tim Geithner, United States Department of the Treasury:

“Generally, we did not do enough.” (Referring to the failure to address growing concerns over excessive risk-taking in the period leading up to the financial crisis.) [Editor's note: understatement of the year?]

Stephen Roach, Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia:

Those who are looking for a “V”-shaped recovery are in for “a rude awakening.”

“The imbalances going into the crisis were large to begin with.

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• John Authers (Financial Times): Financialisation genie set loose, October 7, 2009. Not long ago, there were three asset classes: stocks, bonds and cash. Some were not even sure if cash counted as an asset class. The last few decades, however, have seen the “financialization” of swathes of the world economy where prices were not previously set by markets, or at least not by markets led by the same investors who also set the prices of stocks and bonds. But financialization has led to controversy since last year’s crisis.

• Randall Forsyth (Barron’s): Away from Wall Street, credit keeps contracting, October 8, 2009. Financial markets party on Fed largesse, little of which flows to Main Street.

• Eamon Javers

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This post is a guest contribution by Dian Chu*, market analyst, trader and author of the Economic Forecasts and Opinions blog.

The S&P has skyrocketed 58% since its bottom in early March, while the Dow is up 50% and the Nasdaq has surged 68% during that time. Meanwhile, bond prices led a rally as rates on the benchmark 10-year note have declined some 40 basis points since early August. This is good news for business: higher bond prices make it easier to refinance debt and stay in business.

Meanwhile, across the country, Main Street investors are weighing whether they should jump back into the market. However, the price correlation between equities and bonds of late has some argue that typically, if equities are trending higher, then bonds would head lower, and yield would be higher, due to concerns of higher inflation. This essentially describes “the

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• David Rosenberg (Financial Times): Equities carry too much risk, September 23, 2009. The banker J.P. Morgan was fond of saying: “I never buy at lows, I never sell at the highs, I play the middle 60 per cent.” Well, from our lens, we are well past that middle 60 per cent point of this bear market rally.

• Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg (Financial Times): An economics of magical thinking, September 23, 2009. Confidence seems to be returning to markets almost everywhere, but the debates about what caused the worst crisis since the Great Depression show no sign of letting up. Instead, the spotlight has shifted from bankers, financial engineers and regulators to economists and their theories. This is not a

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This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find interesting.

• John Hussman (Hussman Funds): Conditional expectations and September seasonality, September 14, 2009. One of the arguments we’ve seen a lot lately is the idea that September and October have historically been the worst months for the stock market, coupled with rebuttals by bullish analysts along the lines that the discussion of this historical tendency by the bears makes it likely that nothing bad will happen this time. The fact is that yes, on average, the combined September-October period has historically produced slight declines for the S&P 500 whether you look back since 1870, 1900, 1940 or 1970. But the variance around that slightly negative return is large enough that it’s really misguided, in my view, to base predictions on it.

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find enjoyable.

• Lori Montgomery (The Washington Post): Tax pledge is a target as deficits, debt grow, August 29, 2009. During last year’s campaign, President Obama vowed to enact a bold agenda without raising taxes for the middle class, a pledge budget experts viewed with skepticism. Since then, a severe recession, massive deficits and a national debt that is swelling toward a 50-year high have only made his promise harder to keep.

• Peter Goodman (The New York Times): A reluctance to spend may be a legacy of the recession, August 28, 2009. Even as evidence mounts that the Great Recession has finally released its chokehold on the American economy, experts worry that the recovery may be weak, stymied by consumers’

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For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – August 26, 2009 – Zacks Equity Research highlights Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) as the Bull of the Day and Cost Plus Inc. (CPWM) the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Ford (F), Honda (HMC) and The Gap (GPS).

Full analysis of all these stocks is available at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2676

Here is a synopsis of all five stocks:

Bull of the Day:

Intuitive Surgical’s (ISRG) story is improving. A new product was developed as an upgrade to the existing daVinci Surgical System. Furthermore, the company enjoys a virtual monopoly in robotic surgery without direct competition.

The company's razor/razor blade business model ensures recurring revenues even during difficult times. In the second quarter, earnings of $1.62 per share were higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.27.

Growth in revenues was witnessed across

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The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index soared to 54.1 in August, up from 47.4 (upwardly revised from 46.6) and blowing away expectations of just a slight increase to 47.5. However, while improving, it still remains very low; 90 is about normal. On the other hand, it sure beats the record low 25.3 set back in February. Since the Consumer represents over 70% of the economy, this is very good news indeed -- especially coupled with the better news on housing prices we got today. The total index has two major components: the present situation and expectations for the future.  The big imporvement came on the expectations side, where that sub-index rose to 73.5 from 63.5. The increase in the present situation was more muted, and remains well below the expectations index at 24.9 up from 23.3 in July. The difference between the present situation and the expectations components ...

[Editor's Note: Fifteen trades. All profitable. Since launching his Geiger Indextrading service late last year, Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald is a perfect 15 for 15, meaning he's closed every single one of his trades at a profit. And he did this during one of the most volatile periods for the U.S. stock market since the Great Depression. Fitz-Gerald says the ongoing financial crisis has changed the investing game forever, and has created a completely new set of rules that investors must understand to survive and profit in this new era. Check out our latest insights on these new rules, this new market environment, and this new service, the Geiger Index.]

For U.S.-centric investors who question whether it’s really necessary to invest in “risky” overseas markets, here’s an important fact to consider: It’s China – not the United States – that’s leading us …