Asian stock markets recorded sharp gains Wednesday, helped by a jump in commodity prices and hopes that the U.S. banking system is showing sings of buoyancy.  In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 stock average jumped 2.1% to 9,991.49 and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong surged more than 4% to close at 18,785.66.  Japanese investors shrugged off a report that suggested core machinery orders, a closely watched indicator of corporate capital spending, plunged to a 22-year low in April. South Korea's benchmark Kospi jumped 3.1% and India's Sensex added 2.3%.   

Yesterday, Wall Street responded with a yawn to Obama Administration's announcement that 10 of the largest banks could repay $68 billion of government bailout cash.  Although Treasury Secretary Geithner, appearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee, noted the repayment of the bailout money was a sign of "financial repair," stocks swung back and forth in a narrow range, signaling

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Despite the significant equity market rally off the March lows and the talk of "green shoots," we still see a challenging global economic backdrop and a less than robust environment for the Machinery sector. In fact, what we have seen is certain economies stabilize at much lower levels from peak cycle activity, rather than any sort of V-shaped recovery. As foreign economies deal with weaker exports to the U.S and Europe, industrial customers are cutting back on capital spending. On a y-o-y basis, equipment orders continue to decelerate in almost every end-market -- from machines used in construction, infrastructure, and agriculture. On the bright side, production cuts have helped reduce inventory levels. As a result, we should see less of a near-term drag on output. But let's not confuse a potential inventory rebuild and fiscal stimulus with a real, sustained U.S consumer-led recovery. The combination of U.S job cuts, minimal income growth ...

Despite the significant equity market rally off the March lows and the talk of "green shoots," we still see a challenging global economic backdrop and a less than robust environment for the Machinery sector. In fact, what we have seen is certain economies stabilize at much lower levels from peak cycle activity, rather than any sort of V-shaped recovery.As foreign economies deal with weaker exports to the U.S and Europe, industrial customers are cutting back on capital spending. On a y-o-y basis, equipment orders continue to decelerate in almost every end-market -- from machines used in construction, infrastructure, and agriculture. On the bright side, production cuts have helped reduce inventory levels. As a result, we should see less of a near-term drag on output.But let's not confuse a potential inventory rebuild and fiscal stimulus with a real, sustained U.S consumer-led recovery. The combination of U.S ...

Well, as Claus pointed out in his last post, Japanese data is pretty much a mixed bag at the moment. Industrial output shot up in April, and the May PMI data suggested that the easing of manufacturing contraction continued in May. However household spending and retail sales fell, unemployment rose, and the CPI reading suggested the Japanese economy is once more getting itself firmly wedged in inflation territory. So while the industrial data offers some much needed short term relief, the mid term outlook is still pretty bleak. Industrial Output Surges Well, as Bloomberg kindly pointed out, industrial output surged the most in 56 years in April. Production rose 5.2% from March, marking the second monthly gain, according to data from the Trade Ministry. The increase was faster than the 3.3 percent consensus forecast, and companies ...

This is one of the key points I have been hammering here on this blog for some weeks now. There is clear evidence of most economies globally "stabilising" at this point, you could even stretch it to say that the "worst is over" - since I doubt we will go back to the dreadful days of December and January (see German manufacturing PMI chart below) - when it was like someone had given a very sharp knock to the whole industrial sector with a large sledgehammer, and of course ultimately the vibrations settle down even if the damage remains. But to go from this evident fact to drawing the conclusion that a full recovery is now in the works would be a very fast and loose ...

Despite the significant equity market rally off the March lows, we still see a challenging global economic backdrop and a less than robust environment for the Machinery sector.As foreign economies deal with weaker exports to the U.S and Europe, industrial customers are cutting back on capital spending. Equipment orders are decelerating in almost every end-market -- from machines used in construction, infrastructure, agriculture to base metal projects.There are several data points that help to paint the picture of a sharply deteriorating global economic backdrop. Japan's core machine orders did rise 1.4% in February, but on a y-o-y basis orders were down 30.1%. Orders have fallen in 9 of the last 14 months. What's more, according to the cabinet office in Japan, overseas orders fell 22.9% in February.While a manufacturing survey conducted by the cabinet office indicated core orders would rise 4.1% in the first ...

Asian stocks recorded hefty gains on Thursday, including a 4% rally in Tokyo's Nikkei as Japan unveiled a big stimulus package aimed toward stimulating economic growth.  The Nikkei 225 stock average jumped 321.05 points or 3.74% to 8,916.06, after the government announced a $154 billion economic stimulus package and data showed an unexpected increase in the country's machinery orders. The Bank of Korea, which kept the rates unchanged at 2%, said it was keeping the option of cutting rates open. The comments sent benchmark Kospi up 4.3% to 1316.35, a six-month closing peak.  Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 2.3%.

U.S. stocks showed resilience yesterday as investors took heart from reports the Treasury will allow some troubled insurers access to remaining funds under the TARP program.  Today's post of retailers' March same-store-sales figures will also be closely watched for indications of consumer spending trends.

Premarket futures improved

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German exports slumped 23.1% year on year in February, indicating that the sharp decline in global demand is having a very significant effect on German industry. Total goods imports declined 16.4% over the same period,. February's collapse in exports is almost identical to the January's one, when exports dropped 23.2% on a year-to-year basis, the sharpest decline since records began in 1950. Total goods exports, adjusted for workday and seasonal factors, fell 0.7% from January, while imports decreased 4.2% over the same period.br /br /br /pa href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sdxvv9GcNLI/AAAAAAAANdY/drP1mXDFYO8/s1600-h/german+exports+1.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5322251729291195570" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 214px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sdxvv9GcNLI/AAAAAAAANdY/drP1mXDFYO8/s400/german+exports+1.png" border="0" //a The weakness in demand for German goods was general and widespread. Exports to other European Union countries fell 24.4% year-to-year, while imports from those countries dropped 14.8%. German exports to other euro-zone nations declined 22.5% from a year earlier, while imports from the region ...

A turbulent day for the markets ended with a slight gain.  The markets started out strong due to the release of strong economic data on housing and durable goods.  The Dow and NASDAQ closed at 7749.81 and 1528.95 respectively.  The S&P was up 0.96% to close at 813.88.  Oil was down as news was released that US inventories were at a 16-year high.  Oil settled at $52.77.  Gold was up today settling at $938 as the dollar weakened.  The 10-year price was down and yields settled at 2.786%

The Commerce Department recently released data showing that demand for durable goods increased 3.4% in February.  If transportation goods were not included orders were up 3.9%.  Orders for capital goods increased 11% in February as well as machinery orders increasing 13.5%.  Despite strong order numbers the likes of Caterpillar [CAT: 28.91, -0.49 (-1.67%)] and John Deere [DE: 34.67, -0.30

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pa href="http://feedads.googleadservices.com/~a/Xk6e4_oNoXVfa7SdmhQ-wFVOGKs/a"img src="http://feedads.googleadservices.com/~a/Xk6e4_oNoXVfa7SdmhQ-wFVOGKs/i" border="0" ismap="true"/img/a/pWednesday was all about "surprising" good news. Most thought that the spotlight would be on rehashing congressional testimony by Fed Chair Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner -- or on digesting the President's prime-time news conference the night before.br /br /Instead durable goods orders in February shocked economists (and the markets) by showing sharply better numbers than anyone had expected. The consensus estimate from the experts called for a 2 percent decrease. The strong 3.4 jump surprised even the most optimistic prognostications that had only forecast a paltry 1.0% rise.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_jlRX6zR7UgM/Scr_fdtxYCI/AAAAAAAAAUk/ufube7NE_h0/s1600-h/duragoods.jpg"img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 257px; height: 270px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_jlRX6zR7UgM/Scr_fdtxYCI/AAAAAAAAAUk/ufube7NE_h0/s320/duragoods.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5317343226081927202" border="0" //aSeveral industry segments reported significant gains. Machinery orders shot up 13.5%. Orders for computers spiked up 10.1%, with defense aircraft and parts surging by 32.4%. The closely watched special ...