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Technical talk: Hard to see a big correction here

Prieur du Plessis — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 08:22:55 +0000

"Currently individual investor allocations towards equities are slightly below the mean, which puts us in a zone where, though reduced, buying power is still ample. With buying power relatively strong and the AAII Bull Sentiment Survey still at a relatively neutral reading, it's hard to see a big correction here," said technical analyst Kevin Lane in this guest post.

The SP Review for February 2010

Declan Fallon — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 10:30:00 +0000

While we work to restore a href="http://www.zignals.com"Zignals.com/a following a DDoS attack I took another look at the relative position of the SP to its key moving averages (20-day, 50-day and 200-day). In a href="http://zignalsblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/s-review.html"January/a I summarised:br /br /blockquoteIf you are a bull and are looking at buying this dip it may be prudent to run a tight stop of 1-2%. Stay out altogether if the SP loses more than 6% off its 50-day MA.br /br /If you are an unsure as to what to do, it's best to take what profits you have and adopt a wait-and-see approach, or at least keep your market exposure to a comfortable minimum.br /br /If you are a bear, then any rally which emerges should stall out at the 20-day MA; only when a sequence of lower highs and lower lows emerges will the trend be in your favour/blockquotespan class="fullpost"In the weeks that followed the SP lost a maximum of 4.9% to the 50-day MA and was able to break above its 20-day MA - favouring bulls. It is currently pegged by its 50-day MA and today is in a battle at the 20-day MA so bears are having more influence. However, the market still has to put in a lower low so the long standing bull trend from March 2009 is intact. br /br /One of the concerns from January was the pre-crash match to 1987; but this match no longer features. Of the time periods in play we have gone from a very narrow pitch to a very loose collection:br /br /strongMarch 2004: 2 matches/strongbr /strongDecember 1997: 1 match/strongbr /strongApril 1997: 1 match /strongbr /strongJanuary 1996: 1 match /strongbr /strongJanuary 1986: 1 match/strongbr /strongApril 1985: 2 matches/strongbr /strongAugust 1983: 1 match/strongbr /strongSeptember 1978: 1 match/strongbr /strongJune 1976: 2 matches/strongbr /strongApril 1972: 1 match/strongbr /strongJuly 1967: 2 match/strongbr /strongApril 1967: 1 match/strongbr /strongMay 1964: 1 match/strongbr /strongJuly 1963: 1 match/strongbr /strongOctober 1955: 1 match/strongbr /br /The one that stood out was the 2004 match as Babak of a href="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/market-momentum-suggests-pause-ahead-3661.html"Trader's Narrative/a has continuously mentioned the similarities of the current market to the market back then. From the perspective of the chart what tends to follow is a trading range. In the case of 2004 there is a mild bearish bias - but no meltdown. br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/S4apBcUHjqI/AAAAAAAABOI/NGVb1TMgiz4/s1600-h/Stock-Chart-NAS2004.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 229px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/S4apBcUHjqI/AAAAAAAABOI/NGVb1TMgiz4/s320/Stock-Chart-NAS2004.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5442223041969360546" //abr /Taking a second look at the aforementioned matches they tented to group by yearsbr /br /strong1996-97: 3 matches/strong emBULLISH/embr /br /All these matches were pauses in the longstanding advance. April 1997 is typical of this pausebr /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/S4arLRLQgTI/AAAAAAAABOQ/nmozQ9U49HM/s1600-h/Stock-Chart-SPX1996.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 230px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/S4arLRLQgTI/AAAAAAAABOQ/nmozQ9U49HM/s320/Stock-Chart-SPX1996.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5442225409801355570" //abr /strong1983-86: 3 matches/strong emTRADING RANGE/embr /br /The chart for 1986 was very similar to '96/'97 with a pause in the advance. However, the other two matches lead to more scrappy affairs - not unlike 2004.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/S4asdbgJL6I/AAAAAAAABOY/bOv8H8sUrCM/s1600-h/Stock-Chart-SPX1983.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 198px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/S4asdbgJL6I/AAAAAAAABOY/bOv8H8sUrCM/s320/Stock-Chart-SPX1983.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5442226821322583970" //abr /strong1976-78: 3 matches/strong emTRADING RANGE/embr /br /A trading range was also the result for the '76/'78 matches:br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/S4atdQr4C6I/AAAAAAAABOg/QM22aVsy2og/s1600-h/Stock-Chart-SPX1976.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/S4atdQr4C6I/AAAAAAAABOg/QM22aVsy2og/s320/Stock-Chart-SPX1976.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5442227917930630050" //abr /strong1963-67: 5 matches/strong emBULLISH/embr /br /1967 was a bit of a mixed bag with a scrappy rally, while matches for '63/'64 had more in common with '96/'97. br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/S4avE4wCrdI/AAAAAAAABOw/xWmoOEPL6Ik/s1600-h/Stock-Chart-SPX-Feb1967.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 230px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/S4avE4wCrdI/AAAAAAAABOw/xWmoOEPL6Ik/s320/Stock-Chart-SPX-Feb1967.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5442229698212048338" //abr /The odd matches were 1955 and 1972 with one count to the bulls (1955) and one for a trading range (1972). br /br /However, all trading ranges eventually gave way to rallies. So, is current market behaviour simply a pause in a longer advance? Has the counter rally done enough to instill belief the economy is recovering? The answer would appear to be 'Yes' - although those in Europe might not feel it.br /br /However, meandering around in a trading range for the next 12 months would not be surprising. br /br /Follow us on a href="http://twitter.com/Zignals"twitter here/abr /br /span style="color:#999999;"script type="text/javascript" src="http://feeds.delicious.com/v2/js/Zignalsnews?title=My%20Delicious%20Bookmarksicon=mcount=5sort=datetagsextendednameshowadd"/script/spanbr /span style="font-size:80%"Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for a href="http://www.zignals.com"Zignals.com/a, offers a range of stock a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/trading_strategies/market_trading_strategies.aspx"trading strategies/a for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/dashboard/dashboard.aspx"Zignals Dashboard/a; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance. br /br /Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/stock_alerts/try_stock_alerts.aspx"stock alerts/a, a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/stock_charts/try_stock_charts.aspx"stock charts/a for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/stock_list/stock_list.aspx"stock list/a watchlists, multi-currency a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/portfolio_manager/try_portfolio_manager.aspx"portfolio manager/a, active a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/dashboard/dashboard.aspx"stock screener/a with fundamental trading strategy support and a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/trading_system/trading_system.aspx"trading system/a builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/trading_system/trading_system.aspx"trading system/a and sell your a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/trading_strategies/market_trading_strategies.aspx"trading strategy/a in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on a href="http://www.investimonials.com/websites/reviews-zignals.aspx"Investimonials.com/a; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!/spanbr /div align="center"pa href="http://www.zignals.com/main/dashboard/dashboard.aspx"img src="http://www.fallondpicks.com/Images/Dashboarh.jpg"/a/div/p/spandiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/3415040392614486358-4271748450744555777?l=zignalsblog.blogspot.com' alt='' //div

Does Panic Equal Buying Opportunity On United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:USO)

Michael Vlaicu — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 11:52:44 +0000

Oil (NYSE:USO) is trading near the lows of the day following massive technical selling that was triggered at a break of $35.25. The dump has taken the USO down to the master support region between $34.25 #8211; $33.75. This range will have a high probability of a bounce on oil and should be watched for a [...]

The Euro Revisited

David Taggart — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 10:59:23 +0000

Back in December when we wrote our post “Is It Finally Time To Sort The Euro” we got a lot of flack for saying that the US Dollar was bottoming out and that the Euro was going to drop. We received e-mails telling us about all of the problems with the US and why the [...]

Technical Talk: Buying power argues for contained correction

Prieur du Plessis — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 07:48:20 +0000

Technical analyst Kevin Lane continues to believe that after a bit of a correction stocks can move higher as investor liquidity is still not tapped out.

Technical Talk: A correction – not a top

Prieur du Plessis — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 08:25:31 +0000

"For now the tape remains defensive and the sellers for the first time in a while are in control of that tape. While this condition exists it will be hard to see anything but shallow bounces. However, at lower levels we believe buyers will re-emerge. When they do, along with the negative sentiment and trading strategies that are currently in place, equities are likely to surge once more," said technical analyst Kevin Lane in this guest post.

The SP Review

Declan Fallon — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:47:00 +0000

It has been a few months my last a href="http://zignalsblog.blogspot.com/2009/09/nasdaq-sep-22nd-2008-2179-sep-22nd-2009.html"review of the market/a - so what is the state of play? In September I summarized:br /br /blockquoteGiven the SP's sharp move off of lows it would appear momentum is set to continue in favour of bulls as sideline money steps in on weakness. But look for this rate of ascent to slow as markets work off overbought conditions and MAs 'catch up' with the index.br /br /The 50-day and 200-day MAs should provide support and buying opportunities for new long positions. Stops can be placed on a decisive break (1%) of the 200-day MA, protecting against any 1987 like outcome. But even here, the losses of 1987 did little to erase the bulk of the gains the SP had chalked up earlier during the decade.br /br /Although pre-1950 was excluded from the dataset it would appear unlikely a major downleg will follow. /blockquotebr /span class="fullpost"Once again I took a look at the SP and how it lay with respect to its key moving averages (20-day, 50-day and 200-day). As of last Friday the SP was strong17%/strong above it 200-day MA, strong3%/strong above its 50-day MA and strong1%/strong above its 20-day MA. Again, digging back through the archives to 1950 identified some (close-to) matching scenarios.br /br /In September, the markets were pacing the action of 1955, 1975, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1986, and 1987. As of last Friday, markets were pacing action from 1971, 1975, 1983, 1986, 1987 and 1997. In terms of overlap, scenarios from strong1975/strong, strong1983/strong, strong1986/strong and strong1987/strong are still in play. br /br /So what happened after matching conditions occurred? The arrows in the following charts represent the matching conditions to the SP from last Friday. br /br /strong1971/strongbr /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/SyEOSaesn5I/AAAAAAAABE8/eJXSEyyzLgw/s1600-h/Stock-Chart-1971.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 202px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/SyEOSaesn5I/AAAAAAAABE8/eJXSEyyzLgw/s320/Stock-Chart-1971.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5413623936584556434" //abr /Although 1971 is a new candidate in the comparison stakes, the resulting downward (scrappy) action would fit with a mixed market psychology likely to permeate into 2010; too skeptical to believe the market can go higher - but too afraid to miss the next rally. Markets fall under their own weight from lack of participation rather than any aggressive selling on the part of traders. A 15% range from high/lows (or thereabouts) for 2010 would not be unreasonable after the gains of 2009. Market action fits for an economy which had emerged from a recession - mild though the 1969-70 recession was.br /br /strong1975/strongbr /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/SyEOiR9YouI/AAAAAAAABFE/YaIh-A3bP4Y/s1600-h/Stock-Chart-1975.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 202px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/SyEOiR9YouI/AAAAAAAABFE/YaIh-A3bP4Y/s320/Stock-Chart-1975.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5413624209175257826" //abr /The first of the matching scenarios and very similar in action to 1971, but with a more bullish bias. Given we are entering into the third year of a cyclical bear market I think it's possible 2010 will see a new cyclical bull market confirmed. However, for a cyclical bull market scenario to emerge has the 2009 low come a year too early for it to be true?br / br /strong1983/strongbr /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/SyEOx6l7RjI/AAAAAAAABFM/gaTQJGb-tNY/s1600-h/Stock-Chart-1983.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 202px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/SyEOx6l7RjI/AAAAAAAABFM/gaTQJGb-tNY/s320/Stock-Chart-1983.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5413624477780756018" //abr /The second of the matching scenario is like a rinse and repeat of what's gone before. Can we expect 2010 to see a straight continuation of the rally? The backdrop here was the end of the Iranian oil crisis recession. Perhaps this says more about the year which has gone more than the year which is coming?br /br /strong1986/strongbr /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/SyEPE8Md_TI/AAAAAAAABFU/xbNp3VWne08/s1600-h/Stock-Chart-1986.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 202px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/SyEPE8Md_TI/AAAAAAAABFU/xbNp3VWne08/s320/Stock-Chart-1986.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5413624804628364594" //abr /The third match is interesting because here markets enter a trading range, but a range where all of the prior gains are held. This range continued for a while before breaking upside in 1987 - but then there is the caveat... br /br /strong1987/strongbr /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/SyEPT-D9CPI/AAAAAAAABFc/e0uHX-fWcp4/s1600-h/Stock-Chart-1987.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 221px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/SyEPT-D9CPI/AAAAAAAABFc/e0uHX-fWcp4/s320/Stock-Chart-1987.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5413625062827559154" //abr /The fourth match is still in play and is the worst case outcome of all matches. The trading range break from 1986 produced a brief rally before the events of 1987 emerged. Whether a double dip recession could trigger a similar crash is something which needs to be considered - but given other scenarios favour more neutral/neutral-bullish action this may not happen at all. Psychologically, a sharp crash like 1987 would be far preferably to a drip-drip deflationary spiral; a spiral which would cause the same net damage (or more) to the market, but over a much longer time frame. br /br /strong1997/strongbr /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/SyEPoppb7JI/AAAAAAAABFk/bNHUCtEqt5g/s1600-h/Stock-Chart-1997.png"img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 215px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_WWGUfU1tOjI/SyEPoppb7JI/AAAAAAAABFk/bNHUCtEqt5g/s320/Stock-Chart-1997.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5413625418124881042" //abr /The last scenario is practically a cut-and-paste of 1986. The biggest difference been 1986 led the crash of 1987 while 1997 led to the biggest bull market in history! Bulls will love this - but it seems far fetched to believe the fundamental and economics events of the past couple of years will not produce some serious repurcussions down the road. However, it is a scenario on the table and so cannot be ignored. br /br /My favoured outcome for 2010 is perhaps one along the lines of 1971. A market which has seen huge outsize gains in one year is likely to follow with another where very little happens at all. 2010 will likely be a difficult year to trade, but hopefully it will be viewed more in the context of a psychological recovery rather than a material one; it could set up 2011 to be a very good year for all...br /br /Follow us on a href="http://twitter.com/Zignals"twitter here/abr /br /span style="font-size:80%; color:#999999;"script type="text/javascript" src="http://feeds.delicious.com/v2/js/Zignalsnews?title=My%20Delicious%20Bookmarksicon=mcount=5sort=datetagsextendednameshowadd"/scriptbr /Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, a href="http://www.zignals.com"Zignals.com/a. November 2009 has seen a significant upgrade to the site on the course to becoming the eBay of finance with our new Beta a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/trading_strategies/market_trading_strategies.aspx"MarketPlace/a and a new rich internet application for finance, the a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/dashboard/dashboard.aspx"Zignals Dashboard/a. Zignals now has new fundamental a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/stock_alerts/try_stock_alerts.aspx"stock alerts/a, a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/stock_charts/try_stock_charts.aspx"stock charts/a for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt and soon Canadian stocks, tabbed a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/stock_list/stock_list.aspx"stock list/a watchlists, multi-currency a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/portfolio_manager/try_portfolio_manager.aspx"portfolio manager/a, active fundamental system a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/dashboard/dashboard.aspx"stock screener/a and a href="http://www.zignals.com/main/trading_system/trading_system.aspx"trading system/a builder. New Forex and Index data./spanbr /div align="center"pa href="http://www.zignals.com/main/dashboard/dashboard.aspx"img src="http://www.fallondpicks.com/Images/Dashboarh.jpg"/a/div/p/spandiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/3415040392614486358-6232544264530659317?l=zignalsblog.blogspot.com' alt='' //div

Quality Growth Stocks Lead the Way as Stocks Advance in Mixed Trade

Market Speculator — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 10:40:59 +0000

From the get go stocks pushed higher following through from Friday’s late day surge in trading. Leading stocks took center stage as many of them surged higher on heavier volume showing institutional support. I am looking for this trend to continue with leading stocks. Up to this point we have seen junk off the bottom [...]

Capital Gold Corp. (CGC.TO) Announces Net Revenue Gain of 29% from Previous Quarter

QualityStocks — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 13:48:05 +0000

Working in a marketplace with long lead times and large capital expenditures requires patience and fortitude. Capital seems to flow like water with very little return coming from it. If, however, an investor is willing to stick out the long lead times, or happens to time the development cycle correctly, large veins of profit are [...]

Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH)

Steve Patterson — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 03:29:00 +0000

I was watching the housing stocks back in August and September of 2007 when they were falling to new lows everyday but switched out of the industry in favor of banks, autos and financials. But after seeing an old name reaching a new low after-hours, I started to re-examine the old names.

Earnings results for Q2.

Vlada Kynsky — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 17:29:00 +0000

We are just at the beginning of Q3 and earnings calls for Q2 will be coming from this week. I think widely expected is especially General Electric (GE) on Friday. GE shares closed last week on five years lows on credit concerns. Here are major events for the week.

Monday:
Economic NA
Earnings NA

Tuesday:
Economic Pending Home (-3.0%), Wholesale Inv (0.7%), Consumer Credit (7.0B)
Earnings Greenbrier (GBX), Pepsi Bottling (PBG), Alcoa (AA)

Wednesday:
Economic Weekly Crude
Earnings Acergy (ACGY), Wolverine (WWW), AAR (AIR), Shaw (SGR)

Thursday:
Economic Weekly Claims
Earnings Chattem (CHTT), FC Stone (FCSX), Progressive (PGR), Marriott (MAR), Infosys (INFY)

Friday:
Economic Import / Export, Trade Balance, Michigan (56), Treasury Budget
Earnings General Electric (GE), Rockwell (COL)

The Nikkei’s Losing Streak in Focus: No Plunge Protection Needed (EWJ)

Steven Towns — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 00:07:25 +0000

If you haven’t heard yet, then you probably will some point on Monday: Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed in the red on Friday, marking its 12th consecutive decline, the longest since a 15-session losing streak in April-May 1954 during a time of “economic uncertainty” after the end of the Korean War. However, the current [...]

A New Strategy for EXACT Sciences

Mike Havrilla — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 18:27:00 +0000

Despite a key endorsement by the American Cancer Society for EXACT Science's (EXAS) stool DNA-based colorectal cancer screening test earlier this year, the stock continues to languish at multi-year lows on light average volumes. EXACT is expected to fi...

What a Crazy Day

Trader Mark — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 20:09:00 +0000

It is always amusing to see the end of the day gain or loss in the indexes, and how it sometimes hides the wild action of the day. Today was one of those days - we gapped down (bearish), rallied from what appeared to be a test of support (bullish), ga...

Bond Insurers Still Grim

Steve Patterson — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 01:40:00 +0000

MBIA Inc. (MBI) and Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (ABK) have been at the center of the credit and housing crisis as insurers of sub-prime, sub-A loans, and prime housing loans. Analysts continue to drop the earnings estimates and the stocks themselves fall to new lows weekly.

Bookkeeping: Weekly Changes to Fund Positions Week 46

Trader Mark — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 22:47:00 +0000

Week 46 Major Position ChangesFund positions of 1.0% or greater can be found each week in the right margin of the blog, under the label cloud and recent comments areas; I highlight weekly the larger position changes.Being a long only fund, via Marketoc...

Financials Headed For New Lows, Stocks Lack Buying Interest

Market Speculator — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 11:09:29 +0000

Financials continue to feel max pain as major banks continue to be hammered by selling. The exotic forms of investment continue to haunt those firms who were careless and did not handle risk properly. Selling has spread throughout the rest of the market as Crude Oil prices race higher. We are also seeing Grains and [...]

Running In Place, Stocks Fail to Gain Any Ground

Market Speculator — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 10:45:47 +0000

Monday the NASDAQ undercut its most recent rally attempt’s lows reseting our confirmation rally. Tuesday’s action failed to re-ignite a new rally attempt. Volume was on the light side as NASDAQ volume fell roughly 2% while on the NYSE we saw higher volume. This market continues its “no man’s land” path. Overall, this market does [...]

Bookkeeping: Adding to Ctrip.com (CTRP)

Trader Mark — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 15:23:00 +0000

Ctrip.com (CTRP) is an interesting thesis right here - one could make an arguement that as China slows so will travel, but it is all relative ("slowing" in China is a very different proposition than the US - i.e. GDP dropping from 12% growth to 6% grow...

Fear Invades the Market Like a Plague

Market Speculator — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 10:23:15 +0000

Like storm clouds moving in Fear has gripped Wall Street. Two fear indicators: VIX and VXN have both risen 37% since the start of the month. It is unreal the amount of fear that has gripped many traders on Wall Street. Most likely candidate, not a big surprise crude oil prices [...]

The Market Giveth, The Market Taketh

Market Speculator — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 10:56:50 +0000

The wildest and craziest market is the one we have on our hands. Friday’s action saw lots of panic but it also saw large cap oil related stocks actually fall as crude oil pushed about $138. Large capitalization oil stocks like CVX and XOM closed down on the day on heavier turnover. Even HES was [...]

Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, Inc

Declan Fallon — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 11:36:00 +0000

Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, Inc (JOSB) had a fun Wednesday as it followed through on an earlier 200-day MA break with heavier volume on the release of earnings. It also had some good technical support with a new reaction high in the MACD, although on-balance-volume didn't confirm with a new high of its own.

It has however seen a steady increase in bull trend strength with an ADX knocking around 32.78 and rising. Stops can be placed along rising support connecting April-June reaction lows or the 20-day MA.

The Point-n-figure chart is riding a May 28th double top breakout with a target of $43.00. Options players might like some January 09 $17.50 strike at $13.80 from the Ask which is just an $0.80 premium on the June expiration calls at the same strike. The same ask was showing for the July and October expiration at $13.10 for the $17.50 strike.

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Stocks Lose Gains on AP’s Release of Obama Winning the Nomination

Market Speculator — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 10:39:29 +0000

Stocks failed to hold onto early gains when just after 1:30pmEST the Associated Press released a breaking news statement that Obama had sealed the Democratic Nomination. It was clear as day that traders were given a clear signal that Obama is not their guy. The move was solely on the news that Obama [...]

Market Alerts: LSE

Declan Fallon — Fri, 30 May 2008 08:15:00 +0000

Current top-5 most active stocks on the London Stock Exchange for 9:15 am GMT:BAY (BR AIRWAYS ORD) +12.75 +6.16% 228.25p Vol: 8.5MStill a long way to go if this is to break its 7-month decline. 250.00p key resistance. ALD (ALBIDON ORD) +12.50 +6.0...

Bullish Percents getting a little toasty

Declan Fallon — Wed, 07 May 2008 07:45:00 +0000

Although not of immediate concern, some of the bullish percents are about to enter bear market (but not bull market) top territory. If January lows represent the start of a bear market then these breadth indicators should top soon. If the current rally is a continuation of the cyclical bull market then there is room for another 15-20% of gain (perhaps as much as 50% for the Nasdaq Bullish Percents).

How this impacts on the market remains to be seen, but the likely outcome would be a negative divergence between breadth indicators and the market; indices make new highs as bullish percents fall. Time will tell.

I'm traveling to D.C. so there will be no update tomorrow. INS appointment Friday.

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