Do you remember this time last year? As spring turned to summer, energy prices were moving upward. By mid-July 2008, oil prices peaked at $147 per barrel. But as with Gen. Pickett and his famous charge at Gettysburg, that lofty level of $147 was the high-water mark for oil prices.

By August of last year, the price of oil was retreating, and it was a hard slog on the way down. By midwinter, in December 2008 and January 2009, oil prices were in the $30s per barrel - a drop of over 75% within six months. It was a wild ride.

Natural gas had a similar rise and fall last year. In July 2008, the NYMEX price for natural gas was around $13 per mcf (thousand cubic feet). By October 2008, that price was cut in half. In fact, natural gas prices trended down throughout the chilly winter of 2008-2009. The current

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How did it get here, and where is it going? What a difference a year makes. While March lions and April showers were at work in 2008, so were these factors in the U.S. and global economies:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained steady above 12,000. The leading indicator of existing home sales was down over 21% from the previous year, and the official unemployment rate was just beginning its upward creep by crossing the 5% mark. The first official admissions of the “R” word. In early April 2008, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) declared a 25% chance of a global recession, and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that gross domestic product “could even contract slightly.” The novelty of bailouts began. Bernanke also assured Congress that the Fed’s emergency authorization of a loan against $29 billion of Bear Stearns assets wasn’t putting taxpayer money at risk: “I feel reasonably confident that ...

Home Prices Record Plunge; U.S. Trade Gap Grows; Social Security Funds Running Out Early; Citigroup Lends Most TARP Money; Big Shipper Maersk Posts Loss; EU To Do Bank Stress Tests

U.S. home prices posted their biggest drop on record during the first quarter, with the median price falling 14% to $169,000 from a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said. Prices fell in 134 of 152 metropolitan areas, with values plunging the most in Florida and California. The U.S. trade deficit grew 5.5% to a smaller-than- forecast $27.6 billion, dropping for the first time in eight months.  The gap widened as exports slumped to a two-year low, overwhelming shrinking imports, reflecting reduced American demand for goods made abroad. The report buoyed hopes that a record contraction in global trade flows may be easing. “It’s ...

With oil finally trading back above the $50-a-barrel level, it’s time to recognize that crude prices are probably not going to remain low for very long, and may end up fluctuating in the $50-$80 range - regardless of what happens to the prices of other commodities. After all, the economies in both China and India are apparently continuing to grow at a fairly rapid pace, and those countries’ demand for transportation and other forms of energy are thus likely to keep pace. For some minerals, the period of high prices from 2005 to 2008 has produced a surplus. But no such effect has been seen in the oil market, as large new discoveries are hard to find. If we’ve learned anything in the last few years, it’s that political risk is very important in oil investments. It’s not just a question of outright ...

The Best Way to Play the Coming Oil Rebound

by David Fessler, Advisory Panelist

Crude oil is at a one month low, and lately it’s done nothing but drift lower and lower.

Sadly, that’s about to change.

It might seem counter to what the markets are telling us right now. Because the lack of global demand and strengthening U.S. dollar - that oil is priced in - are keeping prices depressed.

There seems to be no reason why oil prices should do anything but flat-line for the next few months. And it’s why most have missed the signs.

And if you’re hoping for a similar drop in gasoline, forget it. The summer driving season is just around the corner, and gasoline prices will likely rise (as they nearly always do) ahead of it.

The small increase in summer driving demand

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its 2009 demand forecast by another one million barrels per day, bringing total revisions for the year to three million bpd.  Total demand for 2009 is thus forecasted at 83.4 million bpd, some 2.4 million bpd less than in 2008, and the lowest level since 2004.  According to reports, while the prospects for lower demand have muted concerns about a “supply crunch,” the IEA warned that resulting low oil prices could undercut investment in future production. Most experts in the industry, for instance, “envisage oil supply levels in the next five years seriously constrained by today’s lower prices and lower investment.”

Some markets have begun to show upward price trends in terms of moving averages. We took a look at all of the country ETFs to see which, if any, showed an upward slope to the 50-day moving average.

The fund price charts show the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving average price, plus the volume of trade with its 20-day average, and the ratio of the price performance to the S&P 500 index.

Fundamentals are important and should not be ignored, but it is also helpful to enter positions when prices have stopped falling and have begun rising in some measurable way.  One possible way to judge whether a stock is rising is to look at the slope of its moving averages.

You should own securities for fundamental reasons (WHY you want to own them), but you should enter or own those securities during up-trending periods (WHEN you want to own them).

Buying a security

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More Facts on the New World Oil…

By Matt Weinschenk, Senior Analyst, White Cap Report

You may have read the brief post/article from last week detailing the madness in oil markets and the glaring profit opportunity available to those with means. (If not, read the whole Contango article here.)

Well those with means have heard the call.

Alaric Nightingale at Bloomberg is reporting that Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS)has hired the supertanker Argenta to store 2 million barrels of oil out at sea for $68,000. A quick “back-of-the-envelope” calculation shows a profit of $10 million in the thirty-one days between today and the March futures expiration.

They’ve got to find new ways to profit, since that whole “investment-banking” didn’t work out.

Meanwhile, Frontline (NYSE: FRO), one of the stocks mentioned in last week’s update, estimates that there are 80 million barrels in floating storage. And as

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Crude oil has tumbled to prices not seen for five years. But Byron King says the energy industry can’t function with prices this low. Investment in the future is drying up, and so is the existing oil supply. And that’s why the long-term price trend of crude is still way up.

This from Rude Awakening:

As crude oil languishes near a 5-year low of $35 a barrel, forward-looking investors have good reason to suspect that a new bull market is about to begin. Sure, oil prices might continue slumping over the near term. But don’t kid yourselves; the long-term price trend is up…maybe way up.

Back when oil was selling at $147, I said that the world does not run very well at such lofty energy prices.  A lot of things just stop working at $147 for a barrel of oil, particularly things with a large energy component.  The airlines

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pJan 5, 2009 (WALL STREET JOURNAL) -- As the U.S. seeks to stockpile oil, China has been doing the same, observers say, and is expected to quicken the pace -- a development that already may be helping to boost oil prices./ppOn Friday, the U.S. Department of Energy said that amid low oil prices, it aims to fill the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to capacity this year./ppThat news followed a rare public statement last week from China's top energy official, Zhang Guobao, head of the National Energy Administration, in the People's Daily newspaper that China should take advantage of the falling global energy demand to increase its oil reserves. Mr Zhang said China will quot;encourage companies to utilize idle storage capacity to increase inventories.quot;/ppOil prices have been rising lately. On Friday, oil closed up 3.9% to $46.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange./ppThough China doesn't disclose its oil inventories ...