We recently downgraded our recommendation on Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) to Underperform from our earlier Neutral recommendation. Although Sanofi’s fourth-quarter earnings came in a couple of cents above the Zacks Consensus Estimate, we are concerned about the company’s high exposure to generic risk on many of its leading franchises.

We see generic risk to products like Avapro, Allegra, Lovenox, Eloxatin, Delix, Taxotere, Plavix and Ambien all keeping a lid on shares. With Eloxatin facing generics from 2009, the next wave of generic erosion will occur in 2010 when Taxotere loses exclusivity.

The generic risk to Lovenox is the most concerning and, if it were to materialize, would cause significant problems for Sanofi. Although the inability of generic manufacturers in getting a Lovenox substitute approved is somewhat encouraging, there remains a risk that Lovenox sales will be compromised in the future. Lovenox accounted for 10.4% of total sales in 2009 and a generic alternative

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div style="text-align: justify;"Credit Suisse notesspan style="font-weight: bold;" Roche and GSK/span could see an EPS benefit of ca 0.5% for every incrementalbr /$200M of flu related sales. Roche/Chugai/Gilead are the most likely to benefit (through increased Tamiflu sales) although GSK may also gain (through increased Relenza sales). In the longer-term, companies with pandemic flu vaccine know how may be able to develop a pandemic vaccine, and we may also see an increase in overall influenza vaccines. The main pandemic and seasonal manufacturers are GSK, Sanofi- Aventis and Novartis.br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"Mexico is in the midst of a flu outbreak which is believed to be due to a novel strain of swine flu (H1N1). /spanSwine flu is typically not transmissible from human to human but in this case appears to have become transmissible. Given its novelty compared to prior influenza viruses in humans, it appears to be relatively more severe than ...

Highlights include Sanofi-Aventis SA (SNY) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).On March 18th and 19th, the FDA advisory panels recommended approval of 2 important cardiovascular product candidates. The FDA does not have to follow the recommendations of the panels but usually does.On Wednesday, the 18th of March, an FDA advisory panel recommended approval of Sanofi-Aventis' (SNY) heart drug Multaq. Multaq (dronedarone) is a new class III anti-arrhythmic drug developed for atrial fibrillation (AF).On Thursday the 19th, an FDA review panel voted 15 to 2 in favor of approving Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) anticoagulant rivaroxaban. Rivaroxaban, which will be sold under the brand name Xarelto upon approval, will be marketed in the U.S. by J&J and is already sold partner Bayer AG outside of the U.S. Multaq was initially submitted to the FDA for approval in 2006 but the FDA responded ...

Highlighted stocks include Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) and Biogen-Idec (BIIB).On February 11, 2009, Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) announced financial results for the 4th quarter 2008. Revenue of EUR7,456 million increased by 3% from the 4th quarter of 2007, and was ahead of our estimate of EUR7,101 million. Revenue benefitted from strong sales of Lantus, Lovenox, Plavix and Ambien CR.Revenue was also positively impacted by foreign exchange translation. EPS, adjusted for non-recurring charges, was EUR1.25 in the 4th quarter, compared to our estimate of EUR1.24. Relative to our expectations, EPS was negatively impacted by higher R&D and SG&A spend and a slightly tighter-than-expected gross margin, partially offset by a lower tax rate.For the full-year 2008, revenue of EUR28.8 billion was down 1% from 2007, while EPS increased by 2% to EUR5.36. Foreign exchange negatively impacted sales and EPS by 5% and 8%, respectively, for the ...