There you go again, Jim, with that same ole 'gold bug' stuff again. 

But before I get to that, let me poke away at your thoughts that buying the yuan is a “no-brainer.” 

It’s a no-brainer in that eventually the yuan will be revalued against the U.S. dollar. But it’s hardly anything like a no-brainer for an investor facing the opportunity cost of locking up assets in a security that might not move at all for years.

While I totally agree with you on the direction of the yuan/dollar trade, I don’t have any idea on the time frame or the magnitude of that move. Where would a free-floating yuan trade against the dollar? And when will it go there?

The only honest answer to those questions is twofold: “higher” and “eventually.” 

But that doesn’t mean the yuan's a good buy. It could be

...

h1 style="text-align: center;"bPaulson amp; Co Holdingsbr //b/h1h2 style="text-align: center;"bspan class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(102, 0, 0);"Paulson amp; Co 13F Holdings Analysis | Q3 2008br //span/b/h2This post on Paulson and Co is being written as part of HedgeFundBlogger.com's a alt="Hedge Funds and Investment Securities" title="Investment Securities Holdings" description="Investment securities analysis 13F holdings" href="http://richard-wilson.blogspot.com/2008/09/investment-securities-and-holdings-of.html"Investment Securities Tool/a which analyzes the holdings of hedge fund managers.Please click on the pictures below each section to view the securities held along with their values and current share holdings as of Paulson and Co.'s Q3 2008 filing:br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"Security Holdings Changes 1 of 3 (Click Image to View)/spanbr /a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_wM_OZdOMR_Y/ST6sny29uYI/AAAAAAAACoY/pt3BxIP51Mk/s1600-h/Paulson+and+co-1+of+3.JPG"img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 220px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_wM_OZdOMR_Y/ST6sny29uYI/AAAAAAAACoY/pt3BxIP51Mk/s400/Paulson+and+co-1+of+3.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5277845612991986050" border="0" //aspan style="font-weight: bold;"Security Holdings Changes 2 of 3 (Click Image to View)/spanbr /a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_wM_OZdOMR_Y/ST6stJWOltI/AAAAAAAACog/rpMlrrrMGPU/s1600-h/Paulson+and+co-2+of+3.JPG"img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; ...

h1 style="text-align: center;"bViking Global Investors/b/h1h2 style="text-align: center;"bspan class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(102, 0, 0);"Viking Global Investors LP Q3 2008 13F Holdingsbr //span/b/h2br /This post is being written as part of HedgeFundBlogger.com's a alt="Hedge Funds and Investment Securities" title="Investment Securities Holdings" description="Investment securities analysis 13F holdings" href="http://richard-wilson.blogspot.com/2008/09/investment-securities-and-holdings-of.html"Investment Securities Tool/a which analyzes the holdings of hedge fund managers.Please click on the pictures below each section to view the securities held along with their values and current share holdings as of Viking's Q3 2008 filing:br /br /span style="font-weight: bold;"Added More Since Last 13F Filing (click image to view)br //spana onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_wM_OZdOMR_Y/ST6mX8gQS2I/AAAAAAAACno/dFKOvogV1TQ/s1600-h/Viking-Global-Investors-Added+More.JPG"img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 220px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_wM_OZdOMR_Y/ST6mX8gQS2I/AAAAAAAACno/dFKOvogV1TQ/s400/Viking-Global-Investors-Added+More.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5277838743633415010" border="0" //aspan style="font-weight: bold;"New Holdings (1 of 3)/span span style="font-weight: bold;"(click image to view)/spanbr /a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_wM_OZdOMR_Y/ST6liHVebiI/AAAAAAAACnA/leNCGjSHd20/s1600-h/Viking-Global-Investors--New+Holding1.JPG"img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 274px; height: 169px;" ...

Caxton AssociateseCaxton Associates Hedge Fund HoldingsThis post is being written as part of HedgeFundBlogger.com's Investment Securities Tool which analyzes the holdings of hedge fund managers.Up next in the macro hedge fund tracking series we have Caxton Associates, ran by Bruce Kovner. Taken from Wikipedia, Kovner's bio is as follows: "Kovner's first trade was for $3,000, borrowed against his MasterCard, in soybean futures contracts. Realizing growth to $40,000, he then watched the contract drop to $23,000 before selling. He later claimed that this first, nerve-racking trade taught him the importance of hedge fund risk management. In his eventual role as a trader under the legendary Michael Marcus at Commodities Corporation (now part of Goldman Sachs), ...

Hedge Fund ReturnsHedge Fund Year to Date ReturnsWhile these "year to date returns" are now slightly out of date here's a nice guest post by Market Folly on the performance of some of the more well known funds in the hedge fund industry:

Well, we recently got an update as to just how poorly hedge funds are performing year to date. Don't get me wrong, there are of course some standout performers. But, for the most part, they are taking it on the chin. Even some of the best and brightest in the game are right there with you. Hell, you're probably even outperforming some of these funds. Courtesy of the Wall Street Journal, we get a look at many notable hedge fund's performance year to date.

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Maverick CapitalMaverick Capital Management Holdings AnalysisThis post is being written as part of HedgeFundBlogger.com's Investment Securities Tool which analyzes the holdings of hedge fund managers.Lee Ainslie started Maverick Capital back in 1993 with $38 million. Nowadays, the fund is worth $10 billion. Ainslie, like many of the other fund managers I've profiled, has a background rooted in learning from legendary great Julian Robertson at Tiger Management. So, due to the fact that these proteges learned from the best and have had great success running their own hedge funds, I continually try to find a reason not to follow these funds. And, needless to say I'm never successful. Some contacts over at Maverick have explained that their hedge fund strategy is straight up stock picking, both long and short. They made ...

Blue Ridge CapitalBlue Ridge Capital | John A. Griffin Holdings AnalysisThis post is being written as part of my Investment Securities Tool which analyzes the holdings of hedge fund managers.Blue Ridge Capital is ran by John A. Griffin. Griffin is similar to Steve Mandel at Lone Pine Capital and Lee Ainslie at Maverick Capital in that they all are 'Tiger Cubs' (a.k.a. pupils of Julian Robertson while at Tiger Management). Griffin though, is more well known because he was Julian Robertson's right hand man. So, needless to say, the dude knows his stuff. Blue Ridge seeks absolute returns by investing in companies who dominate their industries and shorting the companies who have fundamental problems. And, right off the bat that presents us with a bit ...

Investment Securities ToolInvestment Securities Held by Hedge FundsThis Hedge Fund Holdings Tool is being developed to provide insight which investment securities hedge funds are holding. This is done using publicly available 13F and other filings. All of this information is looking back in time and what hedge funds have disclosed as holding, by nature it is a historical look at holdings and these are not in any way a recommendation for or claim of support for any individual security, hedge fund manager or investing strategy.Please check here next week for some further analysis on specific holdings of leading hedge funds.Analysis #1: Tontine Capital Partners - 13F Hedge Fund HoldingsAnalysis #2: Lone ...

Lone Pine CapitalLone Pine Capital & Stephen Mendel - HoldingsThis post is being written as part of HedgeFundBlogger.com's Investment Securities Tool which analyzes the holdings of hedge fund managers.Lone Pine Capital, managed by Stephen Mandel Jr. Lone Pine is an $8 Billion fund that has returned over 25% annually ever since its inception in 1997. Why is Mandel worth following you might ask? Well, he served as a consumer/retail analyst for Tiger Management back in the day for legendary investor Julian Robertson. Robertson's proteges/right-hand men have been nicknamed the "Tiger Cubs" and many have started their own funds. So, not only has Mandel learned from one of the best, but he has put up some very solid returns himself. Mandel is well versed in the ...

Lone Pine Capital (Steven Mandel), a $7 billion hedge fund with only 30 holdings made the following material moves in Q2, which are tracked at:

http://trackthepros.com/stocks/category/688

New Positions

Amazon

Weatherford International

Sold Positions

Apple

CME

EMC

Southwestern Energy

Added To:

America Movil

Dick’s Sporting Goods

SAIC

Sandridge Energy

Reduced Positions:

Infosys

VIsa