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Boom, Bust and Rebuild: Bank of America and the Kenneth Lewis Legacy

Contrarian Profits (October 2nd, 2009) Writes:

Kenneth D. Lewis There are many ways to view Kenneth Lewis’ eight-year reign as Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) chief executive, but two seem to hold the most landscape.

On one hand, the $130 billion he spent on acquisitions – FleetBoston Financial Corp., MBNA Corp., LaSalle Bank Corp., Countrywide Financial Corp., Charles Schwab Corp.’s (Nasdaq: SCHW) U.S. Trust private banking unit and Merrill Lynch – that more than tripled the size of Bank of America, making it the largest U.S. lender both by assets and deposits.

On the other, his open-wallet policy and the example it set forth almost perfectly encapsulates the boom, bust and nascent rebound of the U.S. housing and banking crisis – which later became the financial plague that devastated markets all over the world.

In the second half of 2007, the extent of the U.S. housing crisis began to crystallize when Countrywide’s freewheeling

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The Rally Rests on a Knife-Edge

Bill Bonner (October 1st, 2009) Writes:

The longer the rally persists, the more dangerous it becomes.

The S&P 500 is up almost 60% since March. The Dow just had its best quarter since ’98.

Yesterday, the Dow slipped 29 points. Is the rally finally rolling over? Or is this a genuine bull market, just taking a pause?

If it is a real bull market it’s a funny-looking bull – one that is missing parts!

For example, corporate earnings are missing. P/E ratios are rising far above the corporate earnings that support them. This puts the market 35% overvalued on a cyclically-adjusted P/E basis, says Smithers & Co.

And if you look at it in terms of its “q” ratio – a comparison of capitalisation and replacement costs – the S&P is even more overvalued. As for emerging markets, “they’re off the charts,” says the Financial Times.

Another missing part is the consumer. This from David Rosenberg:

“ Consumer confidence not only

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Prieur’s readings (September 25, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (September 25th, 2009) Writes:

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• David Rosenberg (Financial Times): Equities carry too much risk, September 23, 2009. The banker J.P. Morgan was fond of saying: “I never buy at lows, I never sell at the highs, I play the middle 60 per cent.” Well, from our lens, we are well past that middle 60 per cent point of this bear market rally.

• Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg (Financial Times): An economics of magical thinking, September 23, 2009. Confidence seems to be returning to markets almost everywhere, but the debates about what caused the worst crisis since the Great Depression show no sign of letting up. Instead, the spotlight has shifted from bankers, financial engineers and regulators to economists and their theories. This is not a

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What would you say to Lloyd Blankfein?

Prieur du Plessis (July 14th, 2009) Writes:

Artist Geoffrey Raymond takes “Big Lloyd Three” outside the Goldman Sachs and New York Stock Exchange buildings to let employees, investors and passers-by tell him how they feel. Raymond unveiled the portrait of Lloyd Blankfein - his latest work - on the Plaza outside 85 Broad Street on 6 July. The portrait is titled “Big Lloyd 3 (The Root)” and passers-by are asked to annotate it with color markers.

This is also your chance, dear reader, to share with the Investment Postcards community any message that you may have for Mr Blankfein, chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs - a company very much in the limelight of late for its large influence on Capitol Hill, the recent theft of some of its proprietary trading code, the sale by executives of almost $700 million of stock while the bank enjoyed the support of $10 billion of TARP money, and

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What Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein Knows That You Don’t

Contrarian Profits (June 24th, 2009) Writes:

It’s always a pleasant surprise to find yourself in good company. As loyal readers already know, here at Notes HQ we’re not exactly part of the “in crowd.” Whether we’re writing about the trillion dollar deficits, banks’ phony earnings, government bamboozles or the sucker’s rally in stocks, you’re unlikely to find the official spin in our daily missives.

Generally, we like it like that. It makes us feel special. Instead of pulling up our knee socks and getting out our pompoms along with the mainstream media hacks, we remain ever sceptical about tales of recovery… of so-called “green shoots”… and, above all, of Washington’s empty promises and various boondoggles.

But once in a while, it’s nice to know you have friends… that people far smarter than you share the same opinions as you do.

So it was with much delight that we opened up the latest King Report from honorary underground investor Bill King –

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China Leads the Way, The Trade of the Next Decade, CEO Pay and More!

Contrarian Profits (June 11th, 2009) Writes:

American markets at a standstill… can the Far East drive stocks forward? … Chris Mayer on buying “what China needs, but can’t make for itself” … Dan Denning’s pair trade for the next decade … Bill Bonner and Goldman Sach’s CEO on the current “bull market” … Plus, a CEO pay debate fills our inbox… your letters and our response, below…

The Dow crashed 1.4 points yesterday, wiping out Monday’s 1.3 point moonshot. Desperate for something beyond these 0.014% “swings,” the market’s putting China in the driver’s seat today… and these guys still have quite a lead foot:

Chinese auto sales soared 34% in May, year over year. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the Red Nation scooped up 1.12 million vehicles last month, outpacing any nation in the world. Consider the course of the last 12 months,

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Is Goldman Sachs Controlling Washington?

Contrarian Profits (May 4th, 2009) Writes:

Contrary to the prevailing analysis, we believe that the Obama and Bush administration insistence on protecting banks at the expense of the taxpayer is the result of a Machiavellian effort by Goldman Sachs and other major banks to influence U.S. economic policy by infiltrating the corridors of power.

Today, we duly note that Goldman Sachs has just hired former Barney Frank staffer Michael Paese to be its top Washington lobbyist. This position was formerly held by Mark Patterson, the current chief of staff at the Treasury.

Pease and Patterson are not the only ones to pass through the revolving door between Washington and Goldman. Bush’s Treasury secretary, Hank “The Hammer” Paulson is a former Goldman CEO. And his replacement, Tim Geithner, was mentored by Gerald Corrigan, a former New York Fed president and current partner and managing director of the Office of the Chairman of Goldman Sachs.

Who else was President Obama considering

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Rabid with Debt

Bill Bonner (April 24th, 2009) Writes:

“How do you feel now?” asked a reporter for a local investment magazine. “I mean, you’re a contrarian…and you were right about so much?”

“Not exactly,” we explained. “Yes, we saw the problem coming. And we expected the government would do all the wrong things – which it has. But we never imagined that they’d do so many stupid things all at once.”

There are only two examples from modern history of depressions such as this – the ’30s in America and the ’90s in Japan. Both times, the governments did stupid things. But this time, the U.S. government has outdone them all. They’ve committed $13 trillion to programs that make no sense theoretically…and have never worked when they’ve been tried.

If you’ll recall, the dog that bit the world economy was rabid with debt. The feds are trying the old ‘hair of the dog’ technique. But they’ve rounded up every mangy

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The Coming Siege of Austerity

Contrarian Profits (April 17th, 2009) Writes:

It’s a curious symptom of the consensus trance zombifying the American public and its auditors in the media that something like a “recovery” is now deemed to be underway. And, as events compel me to repeat in this space, it begs the question: recovery to what?

To Wall Street booking stupendous profits by laundering “risk” out of bad loans with new issues of tranche-o-matic securitized paper? This I doubt, since there isn’t a pension fund left from San Jose to Bratislava that would touch this stuff with a stick, even if it could be turned out in collector’s editions of boxed sets.

Does it mean that American “consumers” (so-called) are awaited momentarily in the flat-screen TV sales parlors with their credit cards fanned-out like poker hands, ready for “action?” Not too likely with massive non-performance out in cardholder-land, and half the nation’s electronics inventory wending its way onto Craig’s List. Are

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Future Options for Goldman

Bullish Bankers (April 1st, 2009) Writes:

Ever since the U.S. government forced the top U.S. banking institutions to take TARP money to prevent a total collapse of the U.S. banking industry, many have shifted  focus to Goldman Sachs [GS: 110.3485, +4.3285 (+4.08%)] and the company’s next move with this cash.  In October, Goldman was forced to take $10 billion of the TARP money.  Top executives at Goldman spoke out about taking money, insisting that they did not need any assistance, but graciously accepted the government’s money to appease regulators and the markets.

In February, Goldman was quick to state that it is looking to pay back the $10 billion back to the government as soon as it can.  Although Goldman had approximately $122 billion worth of cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet as of November 28th, it won’t be able to pay the government back immediately.  The

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