China’s economy grew by 7.9% in the second quarter, exceeding most analysts’ expectations, and lending credence to Beijing’s goal of 8% annual growth. Now, with the nation awash in liquidity and the economy picking up steam, the only task ahead of the central government is deciding when to rein in lending and let the economy stand on its own two feet.

The momentum behind China’s economy is staggering.

“China is increasingly becoming a responsible citizen in the global community,” economist Allen Sinai of Decision Economics told The Associated Press. “No longer lawless, no longer difficult to deal with, much more responsible. It is now a powerhouse among economies and finance. And it’s a rich country.”

In just the past few weeks, two of the world’s key global institutions – the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) – and a large swath of investment banks raised their 2009

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By Jennifer Yousfi Managing Editor Investor worry over the solvency of U.S. mortgage-giants Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) have gutted the stocks over the last few days more than halving their market capitalizations. News of a possible government-sponsored bailout sent Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae shares plunging yesterday (Thursday) dangerously close to new 52-week lows. Freddie Mac shares sank $2.15 yesterday, a 20% decline to close at $8.11. Freddie Mac is down 76% year-to-date as of Thursday’s close. Fannie Mae stock had a similar fate, shedding $1.95, an almost 13% to decline to close at $13.36. Fannie Mae shares are down nearly 67% year-to-date. Sign up below… and we’ll send you a new investment report for free:...

I happen to spend my summers in Norway. I was quite amazed at the amount of negative response received from European posters on the ECB post. I still believe the ECB is making a mistake. Granted, the ECB is dealing with a host of issues the FED does not have, such as, semi-rigid labor markets. I still believe the ECB’s target and potential slavish adherence with keeping to an inflation target will cause a lot of unnecessary pain to the Euro zone. Yes, I am in the “this inflation is transitory” camp. However, the last few days have seen an orchestrated move in several central bank policies. Most notably, the ECB is telegraphing the potential to raise its rates. The Bank of Canada did not cut rates. India has raised rates. China is making moves to drain liquidity from its system. ...

Andrew Bary, analyst/reporter at Barron’s, highlighted Ethanol companies in this week’s Barron’s.  He basically said that although it is a competitive industry (companies have a lot of debt and potential liquidity issues) and profits are volatile, the industry has government subsidiaries (until 2010) and is saving consumers money on gasoline.  And, ethanol reduced gasoline demand by 9 billion barrels annually.

Ultimately, he believes several stocks are trading at a discount to their book value. And, he says Ethanol producers VeraSun Energy (VSE), Aventine Renewable Energy (AVR) and Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) are trading below book value. All could rally in the coming year.

Check out Bary’s stock picks at:

http://www.trackthepros.com/categories.php?category_id=322

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In 2005 I travelled to the UK to study the UK banks. I should have shorted the lot of them. But I didn’t. But for the record here are my notes – written on a slow English train – about Northern Rock – and never finished. I have edited it only to remove references to my actual sources.

I put this up not to gloat (but its nice). Rather I am going to do an expose of another UK bank shortly.

I cannot gloat too much - because whilst these notes are amazingly prescient I did not make a fortune on the stock. I predicted rain - but its making an ark that counts!

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Quote:

Northern Rock – leverage mortgages to the max

Northern Rock is a very simple bank. It has only one strategy and it makes no

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Lehman Brothers (LEH:NYSE) is one of the nation’s major investment banks. Lehman was founded in 1850 and has a rich history on Wall Street. However, Lehman’s stock price has been taking a beating this year as they have been painted with the same brush as Bear Stearns. There are rumors floating around Wall Street nearly every day about how Lehman is rapidly running out of liquidity and Lehman’s need to go to the Federal Reserve’s discount borrowing window on a regular basis.

All investment banks, including Lehman, are built on two items - liquidity and trust. When either of these items is lost, investment banks cease to exist and the best that be hoped for is similar to what happened to Bear Stearns-an arranged takeover by a stronger firm. Lehman’s efforts to raise fresh capital have caused the markets to fear that Lehman is going down the same path Bear Stearns

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ETFs are securities certificates that state legal right of ownership over part of a basket of individual stock certificates. Several different kinds of financial firms are needed for ETFs to come into being, trade at prices that closely match their underlying assets, and unwind when investors no longer want them. Laying all the groundwork is the fund manager. This is the main backer behind any ETF, and they must submit a detailed plan for how the ETF will operate to be given permission by the SEC to proceed.

In theory all that a fund manager needs to do is establish clear procedures and describe precisely the composition of the ETF (which changes infrequently) to the other firms involved in ETF creation and redemption. In practice, however, only the very biggest institutional money management firms with experience in indexing tend …

The practical challenge when tax loss harvesting is maintaining a continuous asset class exposure at target levels without time gaps, while avoiding penalties under the IRS Wash Sale Rule (IRC Section 1091).

The problem with time gaps is that significant market moves can occur in the 30-day waiting period of the Wash Sale rule, which would prevent the portfolio from achieving the risk and return expectations on which the portfolio asset allocation was designed.

The solution to the problem is substitution. Immediately upon realizing a loss in one fund, open a position in an alternate fund that is similar to, but not “substantially identical” to, the fund on which the loss was realized.

After the waiting period of 30 days, close the substitute fund position and reopen the original position (assuming the alternate fund is a second best choice). Or, if the substitute fund is equally attractive for

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This screened ETF list is based on a combination of features that are often requested by more cautious equity investors:

funds with history and reasonable liquidity acceptable expense ratios for the type of portfolio not too much volatility for the return some current yield better total returns than bonds

The funds in the list are not recommendations. They are simply idea possibilities for do-it-yourself investors who may find the particular screening criteria useful.

The funds do not represent a full spread of the asset classes which we believe should be in a well designed portfolio.

The universe from which they were filtered is the entire database of hundreds of ETFs at www.IndexUniverse.com.

Important Note:

The fact that cautious investors ask the kinds of questions on which the filter is based, does not mean the funds that make it through the filter are conservative or necessarily good investments. In fact, some

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Lehman decided to raise some cash by issuing $3 billion in convertible preferred shares.  In an interview today: 

"We still maintain that we don't need capital, but we've realized that perception is the dominant issue in today's markets," the chief financial officer, Erin Callan, said in an interview. "This is an endorsement of our balance sheet by investors."

Lehman did not provide terms of the sale, which apparently is being priced tonight.  Price talk is for an interest rate of 7.05 to 7.5% and that the conversion premium would be approx 30% above the current stock price.  The preferred will be noncumulative, meaning the firm can skip dividends without much penalty if it runs into trouble. Lehman said it would be the "sole book-running manager" of the offering, but did not say if there was a syndicate behind it or if it was going to place the shares

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