[Update: Japan contracts 2.4% in Q2,]By Claus Vistesen CopenhagenIn my last note on Japan asked how much longer Japan could continue to fight off the incoming recession faced with a continuing shaky outlook on exports as well as a domestic economy steadily slowing down. Well, it seems as if the answer to this question can now be provided. With the recent news that industrial production continues its slowdown as well as the news that exports actually fell in June I am thus confident to stick with my call that Japan will enter a recession at some point in 2008-09. The exact timing will be suggested below.

In fact, a recession seems to be almost a foregone conclusion at this point since if we look at the recent messages emanating from official Japanese authorities, they are indeed bracing themselves for something ugly. Perhaps someone from

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In my last note on Japan I asked how much longer Japan could continue to fight off the incoming recession faced with a continuing shaky outlook on exports as well as a domestic economy steadily slowing down. Well, it seems as if the answer to this question can now be provided. With the recent news that industrial production continues its slowdown as well as the news that exports actually fell in June I am thus confident to stick with my call that Japan will enter a recession at some point in 2008-09. The exact timing will be suggested below. In fact, a recession seems to be almost a foregone conclusion at this point since if we look at the recent messages emanating from official Japanese authorities, they are indeed bracing themselves for something ugly. Perhaps someone from the statistics department sent a primer of the Q2 GDP figures (due 13.08.2008) ...