Housing Streak Ends At Four

To anyone holding a half-full glass and with rose-tinted spectacles firmly in place on their face, the latest batch of real estate data has brought them back to reality with a sharp bump.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) dampened the spirits on Thursday morning, with the news that sales of existing U.S. homes fell by 2.7% in August to an annual rate of 5.1 million.

And thus, the streak of four straight months of rising sales came to an end. Although given the fragile, stumbling recovery of the housing market, that’s akin to Cal Ripken’s consecutive games played streak for the Baltimore Orioles.

As for prices, they’re still stuck in reverse, too. The average price is currently $177,000 – about 12.5% lower than this time last year. And it’s no surprise to see

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A rise in existing home sales last month shows things are getting better in the U.S. housing market, but the still-dire unemployment situation and the looming possibility of a jobless recovery may halt the rally by the end of the year. That makes the extension of an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers imperative.

Existing home sales rose 7.2% to a 5.24 million annual rate in July, the most since August 2007 and the fourth straight month the figure increased, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said Friday. Year-over-year sales grew 5%, the increase since September 2007, just before the markets came crashing down the following month.

“The housing market has decisively turned for the better,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “A combination of first-time buyers taking advantage of the housing stimulus tax credit and greatly improved affordability conditions are contributing to higher sales.”

Rising sales numbers

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In the currency market, the dollar inched up against the euro. Late Thursday, the euro was trading at $1.4194 vs. $1.4214 on Tuesday. On the economic front, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported yesterday that resales of U.S. single-family homes and condos climbed 3.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million, the highest level since October.

Meanwhile, the inventory of unsold homes on the market fell 0.7% to 3.82 million in June. This is reportedly a 9.4-month supply at the June sales pace, down from 9.8 months in May.

“The housing market appears to be healing,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist. Yun said that inventories would have to be at a seven-month supply to get price stabilization. He said prices could stabilize “around the end of the year.”

The NAR report sparked a debate about whether the housing market has really turned a corner.

Some

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In the currency market, the dollar prolonged its slide by plummeting against the euro. Late Tuesday, the euro was trading at $1.4323 vs. $1.417 on Monday.

“Fund managers continue the search for yield away from dollar-denominated cash onto equities, including [U.S. ones], but especially in emerging markets,” said Ashraf Laidi, of CMC Markets.

The latest green shoot poked above ground in the form of a report from the National Association of Realtors that said pending sales of existing homes rose for the third month in a row in April.

The pending home sales index for April rose 6.7%, the NAR said. That followed a 3.2% increase in March, was the third monthly increase in a row, and was 3.2% above April 2008.

“This is yet another positive indication that the bottoming process is forming” in home sales, wrote Jennifer Lee, an economist for BMO Capital Markets. She added, rather wistfully it seems, “Now

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In the currency market, the dollar rose against the euro for the second straight day. Late Wednesday, the euro was trading at $1.3908 vs. $1.3984 on Tuesday. Analysts said that mixed housing data and worries that rising interest rates might limit an economic recovery were responsible for moves into the perceived safe haven. “The U.S. dollar is still the reserve currency of the world and there is still a great deal of demand,” said Dan Cook, of IG Markets, Inc.

The day’s big number was from the National Association of Realtors, which said sales of existing homes rose 2.9% in April, in line with economists’ expectations. Sales have been nearly unchanged for six months.

How meaningful that is, is an open question. The stats show first-time buyers accounting for about 40% of sales in April, as the federal government offers them $8,000 to use for a down payment. In addition, another

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Existing Home Sales Up 2.9%; Malaysia’s Economy Shrinks 6.2%; Staples Beats Estimates; U.K. Millionaires Halved by Financial Crisis; Treasury Yield Spread Hits Record High; Intel Won’t Cut Dividend After Euro Fine; Moody’s: U.S. Aaa Credit Rating Stable; Oil Surges to Six-Month High

Existing home sales in the United States ticked up 2.9% in April, according to the National Association of Realtors. The report suggests the housing glut is turning around, but from the bottom up. “Most of the sales are taking place in lower price ranges and activity is beginning to pick-up in the mid-price ranges, but high-end home sales remain sluggish,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun told reporters, Reuters reported. Malaysia’s economy shrank 6.2% in the first quarter on slumping exports, making for the country’s first contraction since 2001. “We expect the first ...

 The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 36.3 in March, slightly beyond expectations of a marginal increase to 36, from 35.8 in February, 35.6 in January and as low as 32.4 in December. This is the 14th consecutive month where the manufacturing sector failed to grow, adding to the frailty of the manufacturing sector.  An ISM Index level below 40 traditionally indicates recession in the economy as a whole, while a level above 65 signaled strong economic growth. This is the sixth consecutive month the index was below 40, while the NBER declared the current US recession to have started in December 2007.  The overall economy according to this report, failed to grow for the sixth month after a streak of 83 consecutive months of growth which ended in September.  All of the 18 industries pooled in the index failed to grow in March, as price advantages were

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Berkshire’s Armor Cracks; JPMorgan Bags $5 Billion Selling Deriviates; Recordati Proposes Increased Divided; China May Double Stimulus This Week; Homes Sales Continue to Break Down

After recording its worst financial results ever last year, Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A, BRK.B) announced it would cut manufacturing jobs and close facilities to buffer itself against the recession. “Berkshire’s operating companies have taken and will continue to take cost reduction actions in response to the current economic situation, including curtailing production, reducing capital expenditures, closing facilities and reducing employment to partially compensate for the declines in demand,” the firm said in a regulatory filing yesterday, Bloomberg reported. By trading over-the-counter fixed-income derivatives, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) ...

Pending Home Sales dropped by 7.7% in January to a record low of 80.4 (since 2001), following a 4.8% jump in January, originally reported at a 6.3% rise, well below analysts estimates that the index would fall by 0.3%.  The index was 85.9 in January 2008, decreasing 6.4% over the past year.  The Affordability Index rose 13.6% to 166.8, the highest on record (since 1970).  Home sales fell over the past month and over the year in all U.S. regions except the West, where the index rose 2.4 percent to 103.6 and is 13.5 percent higher than January 2008

“Even with many serious potential home buyers on the sidelines waiting for passage of the stimulus bill, job losses and weak consumer confidence were a natural drag on home sales,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist. “We expect similarly soft home sales in the near term, but buyers are

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The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that sales of existing homes fell to their lowest level in almost 12 years, as prices also fell and are now near their six-year lows.

The trade group said that sales of already existing houses fell a bigger-than-expected 5.3% in January, but buried within that report was one bit of data that may indicate the death-spiral in the U.S. housing market is nearing a bottom.

The indicator: The supply of housing declined again in January, continuing a trend that started during the summer.

“We’ll have to see if that trend continues. Inventory is already down sharply in the new home market, and if the existing home market can follow suit, it will eventually help stabilize housing,” Mike Larson, an analyst at Weiss Research Inc., told the Dow Jones News Service.

The U.S. housing market will play a key role

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