In spite of recent measures taken to avoid more EU gas disruptions this winter, and a new Russia-EU partnership set to be discussed in detail at this week's Stockholm summit, Slovakia's Prime Minister can't see Kiev being able to pay its gas bills.  A $300 million EBRD loan to Naftogaz, intended to help it manage the import and storage of gas from Russia, has just been delayed after the Ukrainian company failed to implement key reforms.  Gazprom chief, Alexander Medvedev, says the company's 2009 profits are forecasted at around $42.5 billion - and that's in spite of end-of-year export cuts of 10%.  He has also challenged reports that supply will outstrip demand until 2015, forecasting the end of the surplus for either 2011 or 2012, depending on your source.  Speaking as chair of a petrochemicals conference ...

The race for Ukraine's Presidency is hotting up.  With the incumbent serial Kremlin-offender Viktor Yushchenko flagging with ratings of just 3%, it seems that battle has truly commenced between Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych.  Russia-Ukraine relations have considerably suffered under Yushchenko's leadership -  will Tymoshenko, the other, (lest it be forgot) architect of the Orange Revolution, be West or East-leaning?  RFE/RL quotes her as suggesting that whilst involvement with Europe will be prioritized, warmer Russia relations may be on the cards:I'm sure that our relations with the Russian Federation can be equal and respectable, open and honest, without ambiguities.Or is she planning an altogether different kind of homage to Russia?  Yevgeny ...

Reuters reports that next week Vladimir Putin will hold a meeting with global oil giants on how to exploit gas reserves on the Arctic Yamal peninsula.  Natural Resources Minister Yuri Trutnev has told Reuters that Russia will consider easing laws regulating foreign participation in offshore energy projects, which had been restricted during the 2002-July 2008 boom in oil prices.  Rosneft has apparently said that it will not be able to maintain the high level of oil exports that has seen Russia overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's biggest oil producer, as the domestic market will become more alluring to oil producers.  The President of OPEC has reportedly argued that the cartel must improve cooperation with Russia in order to keep prices stable.  Bulgaria has agreed to continue preparations for the Russian-backed Belene nuclear plant, South Stream and ...

Reuters examines oil prices: with an OPEC meeting imminent, crude prices have stabilized, as analysts expect to see the group agree to maintain its 'official output target stable around $70'.  Russia is surpassing Saudi Arabia in oil exports for the first time in the wake of OPEC production cuts.  'In no uncertain terms, Russia has been the biggest beneficiary of OPEC's sacrifice', says strategist Chris Weafer.  Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi believes that the current crude prices - between $68 and $73 a barrel - are acceptable for producers and customers alike.  Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko has met with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in an attempt to pursue Russia's aim of reviving Saddam Hussein era oil deals.  President Medvedev says that Russia must refuse requests for Ukraine to prepay natural gas transit fees, (with Kiev prepaying more than ...

An amusing turn of phrase from the Financial Times's take on Gazprom horrible first quarter results (-62%!!).  While many stock analysts have been laying on the abuse on Gazprom, and of course we're skeptical of its opacity and political instrumentalization, I tend to believe the minority out there (meaning Alfa Bank) who points out that Gazprom's quarterlies are going to see some wide variation, and that the beast is far from dead.  After all, what other energy company CEO has been blessed by the patriarch to keep the big returns rolling in?

Investors can only wonder how different Gazprom's prospects might look were it not so fond of playing chicken with Kiev. In fairness, who was ...

Tomas Valasek of the Center for European Reform has a sharp column in the Wall Street Journal today on the European loan to Ukraine to buy Russian gas.  If Gazprom chooses to cut the taps, Kiev would be likely to hoard supplies intended for Europe, which would put them in Brussels doghouse.  Such a move would be irresistible were it not for the fact that Russia really needs the income right now.  But we all know that there's plenty of bad blood.Independent of the fighting with Russia, Europe is once again asking Ukraine to clean up the corruption in the gas trade with reforms, a task which will not come easy politically - though reform stands a better chance now than in the past.  From the Wall Street Journal:

Kiev has of course failed to live up to

...

Interesting piece here from Transitions Online about the ERBD loan to Ukraine to help them pay their bill to Gazprom ... however this money will only come at the price of Kiev incorporating urgent economic and political reforms.Backed by the EU, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and other international banks have laid out an approximately $1.7 billion aid package to help Ukraine pay for gas supplies during a recession that saw its GDP fall 18 percent last quarter year-on-year, and reform its domestic natural gas market to prevent future crises. Despite media reports to the contrary, this is not a done deal. Kyiv must implement preliminary reforms before receiving any money. Because many of these will be politically unpopular and Ukraine will hold presidential elections in January, the lenders are reticent. But if the country's famously incompetent leadership can shape up long enough ...

Following the hydropower plant disaster, President Medvedev instructed the government 'to provide uninterrupted energy supply to industrial enterprises, social institutions and the population'. Apparently Rushydro will not raise its prices to offset the cost of repairs.  Russian regions reportedly owe Gazprom in the range of $2 billion for natural gas.  Regions that 'can pay, should pay' says First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov.  Poland's talks with Russia on gas supplies, planned for the end of August, have been canceled.  No new date has been set as of yet.  Bloomberg suggests this may lead to dramatic gas shortages, as the country needs an extra 2.3 billion cubic meters of gas a year from 2010.  Abu Dhabi National Energy Company TAQA has said that it has made a deal with Gazprom on a joint gas storage project in ...

TODAY: Putin orders infrastructure overhaul; blogger charged; Rogozin praises cooperation with NATO; Abkhazia warns Georgia over blockade; criminal charges for 'negligent' Ingushetia police; fire at rights organization HQ; Medvedev warns United Russia against complacency.  Flag owners beware.Prime Minister Putin has ordered a review of all of Russia's Soviet-era structures in light of the Sayano-Shushenskaya power station disaster.  Russia's roads, airplanes, and pipelines have all shown signs of being dangerously outdated in recent times. Putin also promised payouts of $31,300 to each of the dead worker's families, to be paid by Rushydro.  The New York Times reports that blogger Mikhail Afanasyev, who questioned the government's handling of the disaster, has been charged with libel.  Envoy Dmitry Rogozin ...

I can understand some complaints coming from the Putinistas and even the moderates that criticism from the opposition can begin sound a bit like a broken record:  the same laundry lists over and over, just updated with the latest murdered human rights worker or journalist (which is a sad statement on current affairs in general).  The oppo rhetoric can especially get stretched whenever it comes to the Baltics, Ukraine, and Georgia, where the Kremlin arguments are well honed and even better funded. Anders Åslund, whom we've interviewed in the past for the blog, raises what I think is a new point in this new Financial Times piece ... that the state of poor relations between Moscow and Kiev can be seen as something of an embarrassment of failed Russian policy.  In writing about Dmitry Medvedev's recent hostile lashing ...