Highlights include Textainer Group (TGH), Freeport McMoRan (FCX) and Vale do Rio Doce (RIO).One of the best ways to keep track of the state of world trade is to look at what is happening in shipping. Most of the world's manufactured goods now move across the oceans on container ships (except for raw materials, which are best tracked by the Baltic Dry Index, and high value items which move by air).There was a disturbing item in the Journal of Commerce (http://www.joc.com/node/409860) showing just how fast things are deteriorating. Container ships are expensive, and their owners do not like them sitting around idle.In late October, as the financial markets were starting to fall apart, there were a total of 70 idle ships, and 150,000 unused containers worldwide. Two weeks ago, that figure had jumped to 392 idle ships and 1.1 ...

From "Trade-Finance Pinch Hurts the Healthy," WSJ, 12/22/08:

The global financial crisis is drying up the financing that firms depend on for trade. That's making the global recession nastier and deeper than it otherwise would be.

As with all kinds of credit these days, financial institutions are making less trade finance available and charging more for it. But the squeeze in trade stands out because it pinches otherwise healthy companies that should be driving a recovery in global commerce. Already, the World Bank predicts trade will contract next year for the first time since 1982.

The Deteriorating Trade Outlook

Here's the IMF's recent forecasts for exports -- from October and then November -- for world trade, disaggregated into advanced and developing country groupings.

Figure 1: Real goods and services exports by country group. Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Oct. 2008; Nov. 6 WEO update.

These developments in trade financing suggest that

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